Geopolitical Myths by Adnan Khan

Modern research on the genetic structure of human populations suggests that nearly 15,000 years ago the world population was 15 million (the present population of Delhi, India). The population by the time of Jesus (Isa) over 2000 years ago had increased to 250 million (about the same as present day Indonesia). On the eve of the industrial revolution in the 18th century world population had tripled to about 700 million (nearly the size of current day Europe). In the two centuries that followed, the global population increased at an annual rate of 6% reaching 2.5 billion by 1950 and more than doubled in the next 50 years at a rate of 18% to reach 6 billion on the eve of the 21st century. Although growth rates are slowing, barring some demographic catastrophe the world population should reach 9 billion by 2050. The current population of the world stands as of September 2008 at 6.72 billion.

The rate of population growth over the last century has been labelled as the underlying cause of the world standing on the brink of disaster; it is argued we are running out of food to sustain such a growing population. It is argued by the proponents of overpopulation that the huge growth in world population is responsible for poverty, environmental destruction and social unrest and that economic development in the third world is impossible as long as populations continue to grow. As a result international agencies and governments have developed and implemented numerous programmes in the third world to curtail the rate of population growth.

This alleged overpopulation has to be in relation to something to qualify it being over. That something is the use of resources. The resources being consumed leading to global imbalances are attributed to population sizes.

However, when all assumptions on the effects of population growth are scrutinised population increase in no way has ever contributed to the many ills of the world today and what becomes clear is that there is a clear political agenda in attributing the increasing global population as the cause of the worlds potential disaster. This agenda is to shift the real cause away from the lifestyles, living patterns, un-sustainability of consumerism, poverty and blatant abuse of the third world in order that the Western world can live off the third world.

The developed world also faces a very serious conundrum; Japan, Russia, Germany, Switzerland and much of Eastern Europe are experiencing population decline, due to a huge reduction in births.

The rest of the Western world would also have declining populations were it not for immigration. As population numbers decline in the West relative to the third world and Muslim nations, such countries will have a legitimate right based upon their numbers to demand greater say in so called international institutes and representation on international bodies. The issue of overpopulation is a very useful tool to vilify nations with rising populations and at the same time protecting its potential loss of future influence. This can be seen clearly with Turkish EU accession; upon joining the EU, Turkey's almost 70 million inhabitants would bestow it the second largest number of MEP’s in the European Parliament. In addition, demographic projections indicate Turkey would surpass Germany in the number of seats by 2020. Turkey's membership would have wide ranging consequences for the future direction of the EU including the thorny issue of future enlargement plans, grounds by which Valéry Giscard d'Estaing of France has opposed Turkey's admission.5 D’Estaing has suggested that it would lead to demands for accession by Morocco.

Although there is no consensus as to why the first nation in the world to industrialise was Britain, its causes are generally accepted as potentially eight factors, one of them being the growth in population. Following the union with Scotland in 1707, the British population stood at 6.5 million; a century later it had doubled to well over 16 million. More importantly, most of that growth had taken place after 1750 in one of the greatest population explosions in British history. This increase was critical as it increased the potential labour force and consumers of commodities.

China and India have also proven that a large population is a good thing. Despite implementing programmes of population reduction under the influence of the West, China and India have been unable to curtail the rate of population growth and yet both represent the fastest growing economies in the world, which contradicts the overpopulation view that more means more resources being depleted.

The world is not overpopulated. There is more then enough food and resources for the people of the world. However, the lion’s share of this is consumed by the West.