Geopolitical Myths by Adnan Khan

Climatic change is an important field of study in science. However, as with all sciences, it is not an exact science. The understanding of the climatic sciences is always changing. Climate change is not new, there has always been climate change, and there will always be climate change. The period known as the Ice Age, which was a long-term period of reduction in global temperatures is an example of this.

Global warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global temperatures. Natural events and human activities are believed to be contributing to the increase in average global temperatures – this is the area of current considerable debate. This is caused primarily by increases in the greenhouse which is the rise in temperature on Earth as certain gases in the atmosphere trap energy gases such as Carbon Dioxide (CO2). This latest warming period has also coincided with the Industrial Revolution, which saw the greatest output of human induced CO2, leading many, like Al Gore, to compare the rise in CO2 levels with the rise in temperatures, drawing a conclusion that the rise in CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere was the determining factor in the rise in temperatures. The CO2-temperature connection is considered the dominant cause for global warming, however this view is not conclusive and there is a number of issues with the samples used for this conclusion.

Every few years, leading climate scientists at the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have released major reports detailing the progress in understanding climate change. From the outset they have recommended that there be emission reductions. This body is comprised of hundreds of climate scientists from around the world. At the beginning of January 2007, the IPCC’s fourth major report summarised that they were even more certain than before of human-induced climate change because of better scientific understanding; ‘The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report (TAR), leading to very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.’ Their definition of “very high confidence” and “very likely” is a 90% chance of being correct (their 2001 report claimed a 66% certainty).

In terms of historical emissions, industrialised countries account for around 80% of the carbon dioxide build-up in the atmosphere to date. Since 1950, the US has emitted a cumulative total of roughly 50.7 billion tons of carbon, while China (4.6 times more populous)

and India (3.5 times more populous) have emitted only 15.7 and 4.2 billion tons respectively. Annually, more than 60% of global industrial carbon dioxide emissions originate in industrialized countries, where only about 20% of the world’s population resides.

Much of the growth in emissions in the developed world stem from rapid industrialisation from the industrial revolution era. The US with its $14 trillion economy is the world’s largest polluter and has acted as an obstacle to any agreement on emission reduction targets. Reducing emissions would mean industry in the West would need to produce less – this would lead to economies in the West shrinking rather than growing. To reduce consumption is considered ‘Shirk’ in Capitalism. By the same token, the rate of consumption of fossil fuels in developed countries is also extremely high relative to the rest of the world. The depletion of nonrenewable resources and environmental destruction is primarily caused by the consumption patterns of the US. US consumption of fossil fuels is well over five times the global average.

Global warming is the result of rapid industrialisation from the West with the sole concern of profit making. Although there exists technologies that allow the development of clean low-emission industries, their costs are high and as a result have been unable to break into the mainstream market.

China and India have only in the last 20 years seen rapid development, global warming was already high prior to that. However, the US continues to blame China and India for developing too quickly, in an attempt by the world superpower to stifle their development.