Geopolitical Myths by Adnan Khan

The global situation at any given time can have multiple events taking place which can cloud who is doing what and the motives behind such actions. Since the Ummah is entrusted with carrying the Islamic da’wah to the whole world, it is indispensable for every Muslim to pursue the global situation, comprehend its circumstances, and acquaint oneself with the motives of the world’s nations and their political plans. In order to understand the global situation or the global balance of power the following points should be kept in mind:

1. In order to asses the validity of any political situation or the strategic advantage a particular policy may bring, or even whether a certain fact in reality is a myth - this can only really be understood if one is acquainted with the international situation and the nations that compete with each other. Geopolitical realities on their own give no indication of their validity, linking wider factors such as the nations that make up the global balance of power alongside national policies is the way to comprehend any global struggle and distinguish myths from truths.

2. Geopolitics is a branch of politics. It is impossible and dangerous to follow the global geopolitical situation without first understanding politics. It is through politics that geopolitics is clearly understood. This is because politics is the polices, plans and styles used to take care of the nations affairs domestically through the implementation of an ideology whist a nations foreign policy is the relations a nation builds with the world in order to achieve its goals. It is the politics that will define the geopolitical arena, hence the dwindling water wells around the world, the politics of oil, control of the Suez canal or the Persian Gulf are not issues in themselves, but the multiple interests a variety of nations around the world have makes them strategically important.

3. Nations around the world are either ideological in nature where they have adopted an ideology which gives the nation direction and acts as a basis for deriving legislation and building polices, such as the US, Britain, France and Germany with Capitalism. Then there are other nations which do not embrace an ideology but have interests which are defined by their history or location, for them the protection of the interest is what drives policy development as can be seen with Pakistan attempting to defend itself against India and Tibet wanting independence from China. The application of the ideology and the attempts to protect and achieve national interests leads to interactions across the world and this is the international situation.

4. The state of affairs in any nation of the world does not remain the same. It goes through many changes, in terms of strength and weakness, power of influence or its absence, and in terms of difference and change in its foreign relations with other nations. This is why it is impossible to draw a constant framework or a set of guidelines to view the international situation as the international situation is always in a state of flux. However, an analysis of the international situation at any given time is possible bearing in mind it is liable for change. It is also possible to analyze the strength of the powers in the world bearing in mind such an assessment is liable for change. 5. The international situation is the structure of the international relations between the world’s nations. It is the status of the superpower and the nations that compete with it.

Understanding the global balance of power apart from knowing the nations who are the world’s powers, their policies and aims requires the knowledge of international relations, which is the constant competition between the world’s powers over the position of the superpower. This is why the international situation is not stable and goes through many changes. Hence any analysis of the global balance of power is a description of a particular point in time. When the international situation changes such an analysis becomes part of history.

6. The international situation will always be in a state of flux because it is determined by the political-economic situation of some states from one circumstance to another. Such change of situations and circumstances is either because a nation became stronger or weaker, or because its relations with other states became stronger or weaker. In such a case, a change in the global balance of power would result due to a change in the balance of powers existent in the world. This is why understanding the status of each state that has influence on the international situation is the basis for understanding the global balance of power.

7. Understanding the global situation at any given time does not mean one must be acquainted with all of the world’s politics. The nations who do not make up the global balance of power need not be pursued as the major actions in the world are a result of the world’s powers competing with each other and in different arenas across the world.

- The North Korea Nuclear weapons stand-off with the US is a direct result of US attempts to contain China. China has been pursuing multilateral talks for the reunification of North and South Korea trying to ensure its back door is not set on fire. The statements from such meetings have been contradictory where China has been pessimistic about the talks with distance on most issues whilst the US has continually remarked successful negotiations.

The US has not directly negotiated with North Korea which is exasperating the issue. The continued sluggish progress and prolonging fits perfectly for the presence of nearly 100,000 US troops in the region and with North Korea testing its nuclear arsenal in October 2006 this will expend Chinese efforts and gives a suitable justification for sustained and substantial US presence in South Korea. J Rielly outlined this in a policy paper: ‘These U.S. troops are in the region not simply to fight the "terrorist groups" causing local instability, but to enhance U.S. military control over territory in the South China Sea. This strategic area with vast potential oil reserves sits aside the shipping lanes to the Middle East and offers access to much of Southeast Asia. The expanded U.S.

presence and nascent military alliances with Southeast Asian nations exacerbates Chinese anxieties and impedes independent accords among Asian states though such mechanisms as the ASEAN Regional Forum.’41

- The call for independence by South Ossetia from Georgia is a direct result of competition between the US and Russia for control over Eastern Europe. The Balkan wars were essentially created by the US to contain Russia in a post Soviet world and bring the former communist states under the US area of influence. Russia was able to bring Serbia under its area of influence due to its history and has used it as a bulwark to frustrate US dominance.

Serbia has been a barrier for the American agenda and as a result the US was keen to weaken it initially by engineering the separation of Montenegro from Serbia, then separating Kosovo from it and then the NATO attack on Serbian armed forces in Kosovo as well as in Serbia itself. North Ossetia is a semi autonomous region in Russia, whilst South Ossetia fell into Georgia in the dying days of the USSR. Russia has used its relations with North Ossetia to push South Ossetians to call for independence thus thwarting US aims in the region. Russia maintains close contacts with the leadership in Tskhinvali where separatists welcome Moscow’s supportive stance. To Georgia’s deep annoyance, most South Ossetians have Russian passports and the Russian rouble is commonly used in trade.

- The call by Tibet for separation from China is also a struggle between China and the US.

US interference in the region begun in the 1950’s through the CIA in order to counter China’s adoption of communism. The disastrous bloody uprising in 1959 by the Free Tibet Movement was a CIA conducted large scale covert action campaign against the communist Chinese in Tibet. Tens of thousands of Tibetans were left dead, while the Dalai Lama and about 100,000 followers were forced to flee across the treacherous Himalayan passes to India and Nepal. The CIA established a secret military training camp for the Dalai Lama’s resistance fighters at Camp Hale near Leadville, Colorado, in the US. The Tibetan guerrillas were trained and equipped by the CIA for guerrilla warfare and sabotage operations against the communist Chinese. China is faced with significant problems, with the Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang province, and the activities of the Falun Gong among many other dissident groups aiming for independence. Tibetan people find themselves trapped between an oppressive Beijing and a manipulative Washington attempting to weaken China.

8. Competition between the world powers is something that has existed from the beginning of time and will continue until the day of judgement. In ancient times Egypt under the pharaohs was the superpower and Mesopotamia competed with it. The Roman Empire became the superpower and the Persian Empire competed with it. The Khilafah then defeated the remnants of the Persian and Byzantine empires and was the world’s superpower until the 18th century facing challenges from the Mongols and the crusaders during this time. France and England then competed with the Uthmani Khilafah for nearly three centuries until the mid-18th century. On the eve of World War 1 Germany shifted the global balance of power, whilst France and Britain competed with it. After World War 1 Britain emerged as the world’s power and France competed with it. Germany once again challenged Britain as the world’s superpower and only World War 2 stopped German hegemony. The US emerged the world’s superpower after World War 2 and was challenged by the Soviet Union for five decades until its collapse in 1990.

9. In 2008 the US is the world’s superpower. Although faltering it still has the greatest influence around the world on international politics. The US is the world’s largest economy by far and the most advanced nation technologically, and maintains military bases across the world in order to protect its interests. The nations that are able to compete with the US are Russia, Britain, France and Germany.

All four nations have international ambitions across the world. Russia in the last decade has managed to gain control over its mineral resources and utilities and banished many oligarchs who benefited from the break-up of the Soviet Union. With some of the worlds largest energy reserves it is now developing a state of the art military and competing directly with the US in regions where the US for nearly a decade had uncontested hegemony.

Britain historically has been a world power and still has influence in its former colonies.

Britain is a key player in Europe and has frustrated many US plans. Britain continues to have global ambitions and works to maintain its interests by cooperating with the US and on many occasions competing with it.

France like Britain has been a key player in European history and politics, its policies for decades have been centred on creating influence across the world through its colonies, French culture and through its economic strength.

Germany is the third largest in economy in the world at $2.7 trillion and an economic powerhouse in Europe. It is the world’s largest exporter of goods at $1.1 trillion. Germany today is expanding economically through a distinct set of economic policies with a virtual hegemony in the regions of Eastern Europe. Germany also played an active role in the successful mediation in the issue of exchanging prisoners between Israel and Hezbollah.

Germany also deployed a naval force in the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 2006. Its deployment consisted of two frigates - the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Karlsruhe - supported by helicopters, supply ships and patrol boats, with about 1,500 men on board.

This is Germany’s largest military deployment since World War 2.

After the nations that directly compete with the US across the world, China has the most influence however it remains currently a regional power. Had China not been narrow in its international ambitions, focusing only on its region it would have competed with the world’s powers. However, this situation is very likely to change in the future.

Japan is an economic power with the largest economy in the world after the US. However, outside the economic sphere it has no influence. Its current policy of taking part in the coalition in Afghanistan and the removal of article 9 in its pacifist constitution allowing it to deploy troops and develop nuclear weapons, is the US attempting to counterbalance Chinese influence in the region. Japanese influence actually proves US dominance, rather than Japanese development.

After the great powers there are some nations that have influence in some circumstances on specific issues due to their history or location, but this has been temporary. India has a large population and possesses nuclear weapons and has the potential in the future to influence its region, whilst Italy was once a power prior to World War 2 but this was temporary. Currently this is the global balance of power, which is liable to change at any time.

Understanding the histories of these states, how they developed, their beliefs and values as well as the ideologies they have embraced would give one an understanding of the motives of these individual states. These nations all compete with each other globally as well as with the superpower - the US. This international situation can be understood very clearly as the global situation is the competition between the world’s powers to achieve their interests.

10. Muslims should bear in mind that however dire the situation may look globally for the Ummah, much of this picture is a mirage and can very easily be changed and replaced. The Muslim Ummah has historically been a superpower and continued to influence international politics until the nineteenth century. With the destruction of the Khilafah in 1924 its international influence declined as it was without a state and ever since it has remained in a situation of gloom and anarchy. However, in the last decade change has reached boiling point where now the signs of the coming of the Khilafah is a mainstream idea amongst even non-Muslims. After tasting the corrupt thoughts of the West, the Ummah globally rejected Capitalism as shown by her desire for Islam and by Allah’s leave the dawn of the Khilafah is about to rise as prophesised by the Prophet Muhammad وسلم وآله عليه الله صلى in the following hadith:

“The Prophethood will last among you for as long as Allah wills, then Allah would take it away. Then it will be (followed by) a Khilafah Rashida (rightly guided) according to the ways of the Prophethood. It will remain for as long as Allah wills, then Allah would take it away. Afterwards there will be a hereditary leadership which will remain for as long as Allah wills, then He will lift it if He wishes. Afterwards, there will be biting oppression, and it will last for as long as Allah wishes, then He will lift it if He wishes.

Then there will be a Khilafah Rashida according to the ways of the Prophethood.” Then he kept silent. [Musnad Imam Ahmad (273)]