The End Of American Century by Adnan Khan

The US and the Soviet Union competed with each other for decades over the post of the world’s superpower. Both competed in the arms race in order to produce the most powerful missiles and the space race to place the first man on the moon. This competition eventually consumed the Soviet Union and in 1990 after various revolutions the Soviet Union disintegrated.

Many US policy makers saw the dismemberment of Russia as unfinished business. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the West led by the US began working to push its boundaries in Europe rapidly eastward, destroying Russia’s ability to influence the region. The pro-Western lines moved to the east for the past two decades, via NATO and EU expansion, until they pushed hard up against Russia’s borders. With the collapse of the Soviet Union the US worked to dismantle the architecture established by the USSR, it worked to contain Russia by bringing all the former Soviet republics under its sphere of influence and for the next decade through the IMF and the World Bank it economically linked them to the West.

The US also expanded its presence in the Balkans. The US worked to contain the post-Soviet Russia, working to drive it out of the Balkans and Eastern Europe. The US obstructed the deal on a federally controlled but semi independent Yugoslavia which led to civil war in 1993, it used this as a pretext to launch war against Serbia where Russia has ethnic ties with the Slavic’s, and by inaugurating Kosovo’s independence it further weakened Russian presence. The US worked to establish economic and military relations with Eastern European states, hence monopolising the security of the region. The encirclement of Russia was further attempted through the so called colour revolutions where pro-Russian regimes were overthrown and pro-Western leaders took the helms. Such relations were used as a basis to annex Eastern Europe into NATO.

Vladimir Putin succeeded Boris Yeltsin in 1999, a nationalist who endeavoured to change the fortunes of Russia. Putin began the process of re-nationalizing key sectors, assets, utilities and industries through policies intended to change the course of the nation. He dealt with the oligarchs who were essentially looting the nation, by restricting the amount of money they took out of the nation; some were allowed to leave the country whilst others were dealt with ruthlessly. He stabilised the domestic situation through economic policies which were only possible under a dictatorship - any parliament or senate would have stalled on such huge decisions and would have allowed their own interests to get in the way.

Since Vladimir Putin become Russian President he has managed to gain a grip on the nation and counter US attempts to weaken Russia. Today Russia is rapidly developing without following the example of Western liberal democracy. Russia has opted to openly challenge the West as well as the US at practically every turn, whether by planting a flag on the seabed beneath the Arctic icecap, testing the massive ordnance air blast bomb or disputing the sitting of US early-warning defence systems in Eastern Europe, which it has managed to successfully halt for the moment. Russia has begun re-inventing itself as a world power by laying its claim to it’s near abroad – this is Russia’s right over its former republics.

In August 2008 Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev outlined five principles guiding his foreign policy in the wake of the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states in an Interview given to Television Channels Channel One, Rossia, NTV: “…..Fourth, protecting the lives and dignity of our citizens, wherever they may be, is an unquestionable priority for our country. Our foreign policy decisions will be based on this need. We will also protect the interests of our business community abroad. It should be clear to all that we will respond to any aggressive acts committed against us. Finally, fifth, as is the case of other countries, there are certain regions we pay particular attention to, there are regions in which Russia has privileged interests. These regions are home to countries with which we share special historical relations and are bound together as friends and good neighbours. We will pay particular attention to our work in these regions and build friendly ties with these countries, our close neighbours. These are the principles I will follow in carrying out our foreign policy.” Russia in the last decade has managed to gain control over its mineral resources and utilities and banished many oligarchs who benefited from the break-up of the Soviet Union. With some of the worlds largest energy reserves it is now developing a state of the art military and competing directly with the US in regions where the US for nearly a decade had uncontested hegemony.

Russia continues to follow an independent route, such policies include Russia’s continued position that it does not view Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organisations despite numerous US resolutions to the contrary. Russia has signed a deal with India to develop a stealth fighter as well as various military pacts. Its Middle East tours, position it as an alternative superpower to the US which is supplemented with its observer status in Arab league and OIC. Russia continues to use its Iran card and the sale of the S-300 missile systems card to frustrate US plans on UN sanctions against Iran. Russia plans to spend over $200 billion in the next 5 years to modernise its military. This includes new nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, a fleet of TU-160 supersonic strategic bombers and the development of a fifth generation fighter jet. Such production is also leading to Russia cornering the arms industry; Russia is the largest supplier of arms to China, Iran, and Venezuela and is courting the Middle East.

Russian foreign relations are currently being driven on reversing the post Cold War trend and securing Russia’s periphery by bringing all the former Soviet republics under its influence. Russia is directly completing with the worlds superpower once again.

Russia has taken full advantage of America’s preoccupation with the Islamic world to reverse all the American sponsored colour revolutions. The project to bring all of the former Soviet republics under Russian influence has been a meticulous task led by Vladimir Putin. Russia has already made significant gains in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia and set to make significant gains in Azerbaijan and should have removed what remains of western influence in the Caucasian nation. The reformulation of a political union in much of the former Soviet space is making rapid progress.

Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia are already members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Moscow-led security group comprising pro-Russian former Soviet states. The CSTO is primarily a bloc that Russia uses to integrate with and project influence throughout former Soviet republics via security coordination. Russia has concluded a deal for a Customs Union with Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia which will align their economies to Moscow further. Azerbaijan is considering CTSO membership and in Ukraine’s January 2010 elections a pro-Russian came to power and in Kyrgyzstan, similarly Russia inspired regime change in May 2010.

Russia will very soon have 70% of the former Soviet Union under its control and any effort to change Russian expansion must be monumental if it is to succeed. Once achieved Russia is in pole position to expand its influence beyond the former Soviet Republics. With the US still looking to extricate itself from Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia looks to be moving into poll position in attempting to shift the global balance of power.

The disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1990 didn’t just have political and economic consequences; it also had massive social consequences. Russians stopped having children, due to the uncertainty as deaths increased due to the collapse across the Soviet territories. The crisis raised poverty from 2 million to 60 million, a 3000% increase. UNICEF noted that this resulted in 500,000 'extra' deaths per year. The Soviet health system crumbled, suicide and AIDS increased leading to deaths outstriping births. Russia’s population on the eve of its collpase was 148 million, today it has declined to 141 million. The problem Russia faces is the 20 – 29 year old categary is currently the largest segment of Russia’s population, they were born in the 1980’s when Russia was still a world power. The under 20’s are much smaller, born after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This segment cannot sustain the high bith rates of the preceeding generation and hence Russia faces a big problem as its labour force will be severly depleeted. As Russia expands it will in all liklehood have more and more non-ethnic Russians in its territary. How Russia integrates them will impact is terratorial cohesion.

America has been unable in the face of Russian expansion to commit sufficient resources to Russia’s successful reversal of the colour revolutions, as it has been unable to extricate itself from the debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan. 2010 however is the year the US plans to reduce troop levels as its settlement to the Afghan and Iraqi conflicts takes shape. All of this means the US will be able to deploy the necessary resources and give attention to Russia’s resurgence. Russia will need to push back all of America’s tools. Since the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact in 1991, former states of the Soviet Union have been lured and bribed with promises by Washington into joining NATO. Rather than initiate discussions after the 1991 dissolution of the Warsaw Pact about a systematic dissolution of NATO, Washington has steadily converted NATO into what can only be called the military vehicle of an American global empire, linked by a network of military bases from Kosovo to Poland to Turkey to Iraq and Afghanistan. In 1999, former Warsaw Pact members Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic joined NATO. Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia followed suit in March 2004. By bringing such nations into NATO America provides their security and hence controls their defence apparatus. Similarly politically Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were integrated into the European Union in 2004 when they become full members. Similarly in the caucuses Turkey has been working to forge ties with Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia complicating Russia’s attempts at making the region subordinate to it. In the decade ahead Russia will need to contend with US proxies, who are working to curtail Russian expansion. Russia will need to make use of a number of tools to challenge the US and its tools, central to this is projecting an image of strength through a strong military, and this area is another challenge the Russians will have to contend with.

Russia’s military industry is a generation behind America’s. During the Cold War the Soviet Union competed with the US in the arms and space race. Both nations developed powerful nuclear weapons. They both competed in delivery systems and both were able to construct Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) to deliver powerful warheads alongside strategic weapons systems. Both nations had huge military industry complexes which supplied technologically advanced weapons. The disintegration of the Soviet Union resulted in the newly independent states dividing up the military's assets. The Russian Federation inherited the largest and most productive share of the former Soviet defence industry, employing as many as 9 million workers in 1,125 to 1,500 research, design, and production facilities. Most Russian defence enterprises steadily lost their best workers to Western companies. In 1997 the Russian defence industry consisted of some 2.5 million workers. In dealing with this situation, the Kremlin came to rely increasingly on its nuclear arsenal as the guarantor of territorial integrity. Russia’s nuclear weapons are its trump card in all defensive scenarios. Until Putin came to power the Kremlin had no offensive capabilities or ambition. Russia continues to field a very sizable arsenal that includes established missile designs that work, even as it continues to toy with maneuverable re-entry vehicles and penetration aids to improve its capability against ballistic missile defenses. 20 years since the dissolution of the Soviet Union America has developed and deployed the only 5th generation fighter jet – the F22 –Raptor, it has 11 aircraft carriers that are constantly at sea with 90 fighter jets on each carrier, ready for combat. More importantly the US in the last 20 years has been conducting expeditionary overseas operations. The US military has excelled in the logistical requirements of overseas deployments, and the rotations and training cycles required for sustaining expeditionary forces. Russia on the other hand has ballistic missile submarines that do not conduct patrols, the bulk of its deliverable warheads are carried aboard aging Soviet-era heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles. Russia’s military is a generation behind the US. To pose any challenge to the US Russia will need to modernise its military industry and develop mobile and agile military units, that can be deployed at a moments notice.

Russia has a history of global ambitions and was a world power in its recent history. The dissolution of the Soviet Union created a crisis in all aspects of Russian society. Russia’s KGB and mafia ran riot. Since Putin came to power he has managed to gain a grip on the country and brought stability to many areas. This has enabled Russia to build its defences, reconstruct its broken economy and today it is able to project power globally.

America’s occupation with Iraq and Afghanistan has allowed Russia to rebuild its offensive capabilities and reverse many of the strategies the US implemented when the Soviet Union collapsed. However this window of opportunity is fast closing as the US begins its drawdown in Iraq and Afghanistan and Russia will find the US able to expend more resources to push Russia back.

Russia has the advantage of ample supplies of energy to fuel its global ambitions. Russia has the world’s largest proven natural gas reserves, it is the worlds second largest oil producer in the world and posses the worlds third largest Uranium reserves. Russia has used its energy as a political tool against Europe and the reversal of EU expansion has been due to Russia’s energy advantages over Europe.

As Russia puts the finishing touches on winning back the former soviet republics on its immediate border, Russia is well placed to project its influence globally. Mixed with global ambitions Russia with the right policies can challenge the US, however its military remains well behind America’s and until this is not overcome it very unlikely Russia can remove the US from the post of the worlds superpower.