西方世界一个多世纪以来主导着经济发展，甚至将发展定义为他们所走的道路，以此来衡量进步。与中国一样，印度也受到经济学家、地缘政治专家、情报机构和未来学者的分析。如今，印度被公认为金砖国家之一，是一个因接纳全球资本主义而迅速发展的国家。印度在无人月球探测任务上取得的成功、世界上最便宜的汽车塔塔纳诺（Tata Nano）的问世、同一家公司对捷豹路虎的收购，以及印度作为世界众多呼叫中心所在地的事实，都使人难以忽视印度的存在。再加上核武器的发展、12亿的人口和5亿的劳动力，许多人认为印度已具备成为未来大国的一切条件。评论人士赞扬印度加入全球自由市场，印度的发展模式也被誉为资本主义的又一成功范例。

The Western world for over a century dominated economic development and has managed to even define development as the path they undertook to achieve progress. Like China, India has been analysed by economists, geopolitical experts, intelligence agencies and futurologists. India today is recognised as a BRIC nation, a nation rapidly developing due to embracing global Capitalism. It has become difficult to not notice India whether this is its successful unmanned lunar mission, the creation of the world’s cheapest car - the Tata Nano, or the acquisition of Jaguar Land Rover by the same company or the fact that India is home to many of the worlds call centres. Combined with the development of nuclear weapons and a population of 1.2 billion with a workforce of 500 million, for many India has all the ingredients to become a future power. Commentators have praised India's membership of the global free market and the Indian development model is being hailed as another success story of Capitalism.

This message is a question about India's prospects as a world superpower, not a passage of Islamic text, so my role as a translator doesn't cover it. Please send the text you'd like translated into Simplified Chinese, and I'll translate it faithfully.

Does India have the ingredients to be the world’s superpower?

分治之后,印度推行了一系列遵循社会主义路线的五年计划,以实现经济发展和繁荣。冷战期间,印度与苏联结盟,技术由此流入印度,而苏联的各个加盟共和国也成为印度的主要出口市场。直到20世纪90年代的自由化改革之前,印度经济被称为"许可证raj"(licence raj),指的是在印度设立和经营企业所需的繁杂许可、规章制度以及随之而来的繁文缛节。印度经济的特点是保护主义、公有制和腐败。

After partition India implemented a number of 5 year plans along Socialist lines in order to achieve economic development and prosperity. By aligning with the USSR during the Cold War, technology flowed into India and the territories of the USSR become India’s key export market. Until the liberalisation drive in the 1990’s India’s economy was termed ‘licence raj,’ this was the elaborate licenses, regulations and the accompanying red tape that were required to set up and run a businesses in India. India's economy was characterised with protectionism, public ownership and corruption.

正是苏联的解体迫使印度改变了发展方向。作为印度主要贸易伙伴的苏联解体引发了经济危机。与此同时,海湾战争也导致油价上涨,造成财政危机,迫使印度转向国际货币基金组织求助。印度获得了国际货币基金组织18亿美元的救助贷款,作为回报,该组织要求印度实行许多严格的改革。近五十年来,历届印度领导人都将印度经济封闭于外部世界之外,国际货币基金组织则要求印度开放其拥有十亿人口的国内市场。由于克什米尔问题陷入僵局,美国政府对印度发表了强硬言论,在此背景下,拉奥总理开始推动印度经济自由化,允许外国跨国公司进入印度市场,标志着印度拥抱全球资本主义。

It was the fall of the Soviet Union that forced India to change its direction. The collapse of the Soviet Union, which was India's major trading partner, caused an economic crisis. At the same time the Gulf war also led to oil price rises, causing a financial crisis and forcing India to turn to the IMF. India was given a $1.8 billion bailout loan from IMF, which in return required many stringent reforms. For nearly 50 years successive Indian leaders closed the Indian economy to the outside world, the IMF demanded India to open its one billion domestic market. With strong rhetoric directed towards India by the US administration due to the stalemate on Kashmir, Narasimha Rao began the liberalisation of the Indian economy allowing foreign multinational companies to enter the Indian market and heralding India's embracement of global Capitalism.

印度经济的自由化、私有化和对外开放，交由当时还是无名经济学家的财政部长曼莫汉·辛格（现任总理）负责。曼莫汉·辛格推行了一系列改革：向外国投资开放印度市场，向外国投资银行开放印度资本市场，放松对国内企业的管制，并改革贸易体制。自由化废除了许可证制度（Licence Raj），结束了许多公营垄断，并允许在众多行业中自动批准外国直接投资。

The liberalisation, privatisation and opening of the Indian economy were handed to a finance minister who was at the time an unknown economist - Manmohan Singh, (the current prime minister). Manmohan Singh instituted reforms through opening Indian markets to foreign investment, opening India’s capital markets to foreign investment banks, deregulating domestic businesses and reforming the trade regime. Liberalisation got rid of Licence Raj and ended many public monopolies, allowing automatic approval of foreign direct investment in many sectors.

经过近二十年的改革实施，班加罗尔等城市的地位和经济重要性都有所提升，并成为外国投资的中心。改革前夕，印度经济规模仅为3170亿美元；如今，印度经济已增长至惊人的1.2万亿美元，跃居世界第十二大经济体，并成为仅次于中国的全球增长最快的经济体。

After nearly 20 years of implementing reforms cities such as Bangalore have risen in prominence and economic importance and have became centres for foreign investment. On the eve of reform India’s economy was a mere $317 billion, today the Indian economy has grown to a whopping $1.2 trillion, the 12th largest economy in the world and the world’s fastest growing economy after China.

印度经济的自由化使印度从一个以农业为主导的经济体转变为服务业创造了全国54%财富的经济体。IT和业务流程外包等商务服务占服务业总产出的33%。2009年，有几家印度企业跻身全球十五大技术外包公司之列。印度IT产业的增长得益于专业化程度的提高，以及拥有大量成本低廉、但技艺精湛且受过良好教育的劳动力。然而，印度IT产业在印度经济中所占的份额仍然相对较小，目前仅占经济总量的7%。印度外包业务的年收入目前为600亿美元，预计到2020年将增至2250亿美元。

The liberalisation of India's economy has resulted in India transforming from an economy that was dominated by agriculture to one where the service sector generates 54% of the nation’s wealth. Business services such as IT and business process outsourcing contribute 33% to the total output of services. Several Indian firms were listed among the top 15 technology outsourcing companies in the world in 2009.13 The growth in India's IT sector has been a result of increased specialisation and an availability of a large pool of low cost, but highly skilled and educated workers. However the share of India’s IT industry to the Indian economy is still relatively small and is currently only 7% of the economy. Annual revenues from outsourcing operations in India currently stand at $60 billion and this is expected to increase to $225 billion by 2020.

印度的工业创造了印度29%的财富，但仍然以简单的家庭作坊式制造为主。尽管软件开发已取得进展，印度的工业依然被一些古老家族企业的寡头垄断所主导，这些企业在面对外国竞争时，借助政治关系而得以繁荣。政府政策的重心在于推动新产品的设计，并依赖低廉的劳动力成本和技术。

India's industry generates 29% of India's wealth but is still dominated by simple household manufacturing. Whilst advances have been made in software development India's industry is still dominated by oligopolies of old family firms who have used political connections to prosper when faced with foreign competition. Government policy is centred on promoting the designing of new products and relying on low labour costs and technology.

农业贡献了印度17%的财富，但它吸纳了印度绝大部分的劳动力：印度每三人中就有两人从事农业工作。印度是仅次于中国的世界第二大农业生产国，其香蕉、人心果、牛奶、腰果、椰子、茶叶、生姜、姜黄和黑胡椒的产量均居世界首位。印度拥有世界上最多的牛群，数量达1.93亿头，并生产全球10%的水果。

Agriculture generates 17% of India's wealth; however it employs the vast majority of India's workforce, 2 out every 3 Indian's work in India's agricultural sector. India is the world's largest agricultural producer after China and produces more Bananas, Sapotas, Milk, Cashew nuts, Coconuts, Tea, Ginger, Turmeric and black pepper than any nation in the world. India has the world's largest cattle population of 193 million and produces 10% of the world's fruit.

印度的自由化改革即将迈入第二十个年头，但在同一个里程碑上，它仍远远落后于中国当年所达到的水平。印度面临诸多挑战，要成为世界强国，以下几项最为关键，概述如下：

India will soon be in its 20th year since its liberalisation drive began, it is already well behind the level China reached at the same milestone. India faces many challenges the most critical of these, in order to become a world power, are summarised below:

对于任何国家而言,建立稳定且安全的国内能源供应都至关重要。印度在这一领域存在严重问题。虽然80%的印度村庄至少通了电力线路,但仍有约6亿印度人根本没有市电供应,农村家庭中只有44%能够用上电。就印度而言,经济发展带来的能源需求不断攀升,使其长期处于能源紧缺的状态。印度石油资源匮乏,目前在能源需求上严重依赖煤炭和进口石油。尽管印度拥有一些具有未来潜力的能源资源,例如太阳能、风能和生物燃料(麻风树、甘蔗),但这些资源仍处于发展的初级阶段,无法为工业规模的发展提供充足的能源。

For any nation to develop a stable and secure supply of domestic energy sources is paramount. India has severe problems in this area, While 80% of Indian villages have at least an electricity line some 600 million Indians have no mains electricity at all, just 44% of rural households have access to electricity. In India's case rising energy demand due to economic development has created a perpetual state of energy crunch. India is poor in oil resources and is currently heavily dependent on coal and foreign oil imports for its energy needs. Although India is rich in certain energy resources which promise future potential such as renewable energy resources like solar, wind and biofuels (jatropha, sugarcane) such sources however are still in their early stage of development and can in no way provide sufficient energy for development of industrial scale.

印度过去二十年的发展远非均衡。自由化和全球化带来的好处，仍然局限于国内某些地理区域和某些经济部门。IT产业的繁荣集中在印度南部的大都市，而石化产业则主要在印度西部的古吉拉特邦蓬勃发展。印度北部和东部的大片地区在经济发展上严重落后。传统上贫穷且人口众多的“BIMARU”邦——比哈尔邦、中央邦、拉贾斯坦邦、北方邦——仍然主要是农业经济。

India's development for the last two decades has been anything but equal. The benefits of liberalisation and globalisation are still restricted to certain geographical areas of the country and certain economic sectors. The IT boom is concentrated in the Southern metros of India while the petrochemicals sector is thriving mostly in Gujarat, in western India. Large parts of Northern and Eastern India are severely lagging in economic development. The traditionally poor and populous BIMARU states - Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh - are still largely agrarian economies.

尽管印度经济在过去二十年里增长了四倍,但这些新增财富仍然掌握在少数人手中。印度有85%(9.3亿)的人口日收入不足2.5美元,这一比例高于撒哈拉以南非洲。印度有75%(8.22亿)的人口日收入不足2美元。24%(3亿)的印度人口日收入不足1美元。这意味着41%(4.44亿)的印度人生活在国际贫困线1.25美元以下。全世界生活在贫困中的人口中,有33%居住在印度。

Whilst the Indian economy has grown fourfold over the last two decades, this new wealth has remained in the hands of a small minority of the population. 85% (930 million) of the Indian population lives on less than $2.50 a day, this is more than Sub-Saharan Africa. 75% (822 million) of the Indian population lives on less than $2 a day. 24% (300 million) of the Indian population live on less than $1 a day. This means 41% (444 million) Indians live below the international poverty line of $1.25. 33% of the world's population that lives in poverty resides in India.

要使任何国家具备全球力量投射能力，就必须发展其国内基础设施，包括道路、港口、电网、供水和电信，只有这样国家才能向前发展、取得进步。印度的基础设施如今的特征是道路破败、机场拥堵、停电频发，以及大型项目中猖獗的腐败。印度科技公司Infosys Technologies Ltd证实，由于班加罗尔几乎没有大众公共交通，该公司每年需花费500万美元，用巴士、小型面包车和出租车接送其18,000名员工往返办公室和工厂。14 该公司还证实，交通拥堵使员工每天通勤时间可能长达四个小时以上。印度在这一领域的支出仅为310亿美元。印度拥有的车辆只占世界的1%，但其车祸死亡人数却占世界的8%。高盛的估算显示，为应对快速的经济发展，印度未来十年需要在基础设施项目上投入1.7万亿美元。15

For any nation to have any global power projection capabilities it needs to develop its domestic infrastructure of roads, ports, electricity grids, water supply and telecoms in order for the nation to move forward and progress. Indian infrastructure has come to be characterised with crumbling roads, jammed airports, and power blackouts and rampant corruption in mega projects. Indian technology firm Infosys Technologies Ltd confirmed that with virtually no mass transit in Bangalore it spends $5 million a year on buses, minivans, and taxis to transport its 18,000 employees to and from its offices and factories.14 It also confirmed that traffic jams mean workers can spend upwards of four hours commuting each day. India's spending in this area is only $31 billion. India has only 1% of the world's vehicles, but it accounts for 8% of the world's vehicle fatalities. Estimates by Goldman Sachs have shown that India will need to spend $1.7 trillion on infrastructure projects over the next decade to deal with its rapid economic development.15

印度同时还有许多其他问题需要克服，如果它想成为超级大国，就必须解决这些问题。其中包括：

India at the same time has many other problems that it will need to overcome if it has any ambitions of becoming a superpower, among these are:

每天有1000名印度儿童死于腹泻病。

- 1000 Indian children die of diarrhea sickness every day.

三岁以下儿童中有40%营养不良（体重不足）。

- 40% of children under the age of three are malnourished (underweight).

- 十万个村庄从未听过电话铃声响起。

- 100,000 villages have never heard a telephone ring.

根据世界银行的数据，企业家开办一家企业需要35天，办理各类许可证和执照需要270天，登记一处财产需要62天，执行合同几乎需要4年，而关闭一家企业则需要多达10年，令人震惊。16

- According to the World Bank it takes an entrepreneur 35 days to start a business, 270 days to obtain various licenses and permits, 62 days to register a property, nearly 4 years to enforce contracts, and a shocking 10 years to close a business.16

在印度的城市居民中，每三个人就有一人居住在空间极其狭窄的住所里，这样的居住条件甚至达不到美国监狱牢房的最低标准。17

- One in every three urban Indians lives in homes too cramped to exceed even the minimum requirements of a prison cell in the US.17

印度并不代表一种独特或新颖的经济发展模式。采纳自由市场、转向出口导向型经济，是非洲、拉丁美洲和远东的许多国家都曾尝试过的做法。成为全球外包中心也无法有效刺激印度庞大的经济，因为这种战略过于狭窄，难以带动经济中的多个部门。这正是印度基础设施混乱的原因：只有那些作为外包业务供应链的部门，例如信息技术业，才得到了发展。印度经济主要依赖其庞大的国内市场，对外贸易仅占国内生产总值的15%以下。依赖国际贸易的趋势似乎还将加剧，而金融危机已经表明，依赖全球市场是一种脆弱的经济构建方式。这与亚洲四小龙在20世纪80年代和90年代所采取的战略相似，其结果在1997年造成了灾难性后果，即后来人们所说的亚洲金融危机。

India does not represent a unique or new form of economic development. The adoption of the free market and becoming an export driven economy is something nations in Africa, Latin America and the Far East have all attempted. Becoming the world's outsourcing hub will also not stimulate India’s huge economy as such a strategy is too narrow to stimulate multiple sectors of the economy, this is why India's infrastructure is in chaos as only those sectors that act as supply lines to outsourcing such as IT have seen development. India's economy is mostly dependent on its large internal market with external trade accounting for less than 15% of the country's GDP. The trend of relying on International trade looks set to increase and as the financial crisis has shown dependency on the global market is a fragile way to construct an economy. This was a similar strategy the Asian tiger economies pursued through the 1980's and 1990's with disastrous results in 1997, in what has come to be known as the Asian Crisis.

这类问题将使印度永远无法成为全球大国。另一方面，印度还存在若干更为根本的问题和挑战，除非能够克服，否则它将始终阻碍印度成为全球大国：

Such issues will stop India from ever becoming a global power. India on the other hand has a number of more fundamental problems and challenges that will always hinder it from becoming a global power unless they can be overcome:

在政治上,印度是一个高度分裂的国家,各方势力利益各异,在地理、宗教、种姓和阶级等各种断层线上相互拉扯、彼此角力。自印度分治以来的大部分时间里,印度政客一直利用这些分歧谋求短期利益,从未愿意超越琐碎的分歧,汇聚国家的资源。印度是世界上最大的民主国家,这一事实对印度而言是一个问题而非优势。议会民主将分歧制度化,并允许政党为维护这些利益而成立。其结果是,大多数问题都陷入议会僵局,与印美民用核协议的遭遇如出一辙。

- Politically, India is a hugely fragmented nation with competing factions with varying interests pulling and pushing across various geographical, religious, caste-based and class-based fault-lines. Indian politicians have, for most of India's post partition history, utilised the differences for their short term gains never bothering to rise above petty differences and marshal the resources of the nation. The fact that India is the world’s largest democracy is a problem not an advantage for India. Parliamentary democracy institutionalises differences and allows parties to be established to protect such interests. This results in most issues lingering into parliamentary deadlock as was seen with the civilian nuclear deal with the US.

印度人口为12亿，其中80%是印度教徒。然而，印度是一个分裂的国家，一直未能将其少数群体融入社会，这导致了分裂主义问题，各派别发动暴力运动反对印度政府。

- India has a population of 1.2 billion, with 80% of the population Hindu. However India is a fragmented nation that has been unable to integrate its minorities, this has created a secessionist problem with various factions leading violent campaigns against the Indian government.

许多分析人士在评估潜在的世界强国时，往往倾向于关注经济增长和人口趋势。这些指标或许自身能够说明未来的发展前景，但就未来的实力而言，它们所能说明的却非常有限。

Many analysts have a tendency to look at economic growth and population trends when assessing potential world powers, whilst such indicators may indicate future prospects on their own they show very little in terms of future power.

真正预示未来前景的指标，并不在于一个国家的资源、人口规模、所拥有的技术或地理位置——尽管这些都是优势。一个有潜力成为全球性强国的国家，必须具备全球性的雄心；而这种雄心，又源于该国人民所信奉并践行的生活方式。

The real indicator of future prospects is not the resources of a nation, its population size, the technology it posses or geography - although these would be advantages. A potential global power would need to posses global ambitions, this in turn would come from the way of life of a nation the people have embraced.

“India Shining”的形象在1991年之后并不能代表一个真实且完整的印度。在那里，超过十万个村庄从未听过电话铃声。1990年代的经济改革确实大大推动了自由化和增长，但直接受益者主要是较为富裕的城市居民。印度仍有许多需要克服的挑战，例如发展失衡、12亿人口（约占世界贫困人口的三分之一），以及超过70%的印度人生活在贫困的农村地区。然而，正如所有工业化国家所表明的那样，这些问题是可以克服的。不过，解决此类问题本身就是进步的结果，而进步的核心在于一个非常简单的概念——全球性的雄心，这恰恰是印度所缺乏的。它的生活方式——印度教——并未提出或给出国际化的视野。印度固然能够制造先进的汽车，将众多人送入太空，发明新技术，并在各个领域实现自给自足和领先，但这些都是每一个独立国家所追求的，单凭这些还不足以使其成为超级大国。

The image of an ‘India Shining' post-1991 is not representative or a fully accurate portrayal of a country where over 100,000 villages have never heard a telephone ring. While the economic reforms of the 1990’s did much to liberalise and stimulate growth, the direct beneficiaries were more affluent urban dwellers. Whilst India has many challenges to overcome such as its lopsided development, a 1.2 billion population, who constitute a third of the world’s poor, with over 70% of Indians living in deprived rural areas, these can be overcome as all the industrialised nations have shown. However solving such issues is the product of progress and at the heart of progress lays a very simple concept of global ambitions which India does not possess. Its way of life - Hinduism does not outline or give an international outlook. Whilst India will build state of the art cars, send many into Space, invent new technologies, achieve self sufficiency and superiority in various fields, this is however something sought by every independent nation, but on its own insufficient to become a superpower.