北美的13个州于1776年在美国独立战争中击败英国后组成了美利坚合众国。通过"天定命运"(manifest destiny)的扩张，美国的版图不断扩大，直至近50个州成为联邦的一部分。1865年的美国内战确定了这个国家及其经济体系的命运。内战时期的军备需求为现代美国工业经济奠定了基础。战争的需要极大地刺激了制造业，加速了一个以铁、蒸汽和电力的利用为基础的经济进程，同时也推动了科学和发明的前进步伐。自19世纪80年代中期以来，美国每年都是世界上最大的经济体。

13 federal states of North America formed United States of America in 1776 after defeating Britain in the American war of independence. Through manifest destiny the USA expanded until nearly 50 states became part of the union. The American civil war of 1865 sealed the destiny of the nation and its economic system. The armament needs of the civil war laid the groundwork for the modern US industrial economy. War needs had enormously stimulated manufacturing, speeding an economic process based on the exploitation of iron, steam, and electric power, as well as the forward march of science and invention. Since the middle of the 1880’s the USA has been the world’s largest economy every year.

美国从北美大陆上的移民之国，发展成今天一个所创造的财富超过其后四个国家总和的国家。在军事上，美国主宰世界，并控制着世界的海洋。在政治上，美国参与了大多数国际问题和争端。美国企业在全球经济的大多数领域占据主导地位，美国的品牌和标志是全球识别度最高的一些。

The US turned from a nation of immigrants in the North American continent to a nation today that produces more wealth then the next four nations combined. Militarily the US dominates the world and controls the world’s oceans. Politically the US is involved in most international issues and disputes. US companies dominate most sectors of the global economy and US brands and symbols are some of the most recognised across the globe.

第二次世界大战接近尾声时,美国崛起为世界强国。美国参与了冲突的太平洋战区,并且其大规模工业生产能力和军事装备生产能力为盟国提供了支持,这在结束战争方面起到了决定性作用,而当时英国因德国的战争努力已几乎耗尽国力。美国派出五十万军队占领日本,并与俄罗斯和英国共同分担对德国的占领。

America emerged a world power as WW2 drew to a close. US participation in the Pacific zone of the conflict and its ability to produce on mass industrial machinery and military equipment for the allies was decisive in bringing the war to its conclusion when Britain had been completely consumed due to the German war effort. The US occupied Japan with half a million of its troops and shared the occupation of Germany with Russia and Britain.

战争在历史上一直是美国发展的核心。乔治·弗里德曼在其著作《未来百年》中对此作了阐述：“世界上几乎所有其他工业强国在二十世纪都经历了毁灭性的战争。美国参与了战争，但美国本土从未经历过战争。军事实力与地理现实造就了经济现实。其他国家在战后的恢复中耗费了时间，而美国没有。事实上，美国反而因这些战争而壮大。”2

War historically has been central to America’s development. George Friedman outlined this in his book: The Next 100 Years: “Virtually every other industrialised power in the world experienced devastating warfare in the 20th century. The United States waged war, but America itself never experienced it. Military power and geographical reality created an economic reality. Other countries have lost time recovering from wars. The United States has not. It has actually grown because of them.”2

战后的世界是由美国构建的。当时美国拥有最先进的技术发明——核武器，并以此一举结束了第二次世界大战，因此得以主导战后世界的规则，唯一的障碍只有苏联。1945年的雅尔塔会议在胜利者之间瓜分了战利品；布雷顿森林会议则创建了国际货币基金组织、世界银行和关税及贸易总协定（GATT），同时使美元成为世界储备货币——所有这些都使美国的影响力制度化，而饱受战争蹂躏的欧洲接受了这一切。布鲁金斯学会在一份报告中证实：“美国一直将包括世界银行在内的所有多边组织视为外交政策的工具，用以支持美国的特定目标与宗旨……美国关于世界经济应如何组织、资源应如何分配以及投资决策应如何作出的观点，都被写入了该行的章程和运作政策之中。”3

It was the United States that constructed the post war world. Having used the most technologically advanced invention at the time – nuclear weapons, to bring to an end in one stroke to WW2, America was well placed to dictate the terms of the post war world, only the Soviet Union presented any obstacle. Whilst the Yalta conference in 1945 distributed the spoils amongst the victors the Bretton Woods conference created the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the General Agreement on taxes and Tariffs (GATT), it also made the Dollar the world’s reserve currency – all this institutionalised US influence, which Europe accepted as it was devastated by the war. The Brookings institute confirmed in a report: "The United States has viewed all multilateral organisations including the World Bank, as instruments of foreign policy to be used in support of specific US aims and objectives…US views regarding how the world economy should be organised, how resources should be allocated and how investment decisions should be reached were enshrined in the Charter and the operational policies of the bank."3

随着战后建筑的兴建，一场新的战争也随之开始——冷战。美国与苏联相互竞争。美国没有拆解日本和德国，而是决定将它们扶持为成功的资本主义国家，以此作为抗衡共产主义扩张的力量。欧洲通过马歇尔计划获得复兴援助，而日本和德国数十年间则获得了美国的技术，这大大推动了它们的快速经济发展。4

As the post –WW2 architecture was being constructed a new war was beginning – the cold war. The US and the USSR competed with each other, the US rather then deconstructing both Japan and Germany decided to turn them into successful Capitalist nations as a counter weight to the expansion of Communism. Whilst Europe received aid through the Marshall plan for reconstruction, Japan and Germany for decades received access to US technology which significantly aided their rapid economic development.4

冷战期间，美国与苏联在军备竞赛和太空竞赛中展开角逐，由此引发了许多军事方面的发展。美国组建了西方集团，成员包括世界上大多数自由民主国家，以此与东方集团相抗衡。这使美国得以将其文化传播到世界各地。好莱坞成为美国生活方式的核心，渗透进全球观众的思想之中。美国消费者因可以追求的“美国梦”而被奉为偶像，美国的哲学家和思想家则在政治与哲学思想领域引领潮流。

The Cold War resulted in numerous military developments which the US led in its arms and space race with the Soviet Union. The US created the Western bloc which consisted of most of the liberal democracies around the world as a counter weight to the Eastern bloc. This allowed the US to disseminate its culture around the world. Hollywood became central to the American way of life infiltrating the minds of the global audience. The US consumer became idolised for the American dream that could be pursued and American philosophers and thinkers led the way on political and philosophical ideas.

在二十世纪末，美国是无可匹敌的世界强国：它击败了共产主义，使北约成为世界上默认的安全组织，并主宰着世界经济。当时人们普遍认为，未来几十年，世界上将继续有大量文字和出版物书写和印刷美国的强大实力。

At the end of the 20th century the US was the unrivalled world power, having defeated Communism, established NATO as the world’s default security organisation and dominated the world economy, it was considered very likely that the world would be writing and printing about US prowess for decades to come.

然而，21世纪的美国作为一个全球强国，与20世纪的美国已大不相同。

The US in the 21st century however is a very different global power to the one of the 20th century.

今天，美国在伊拉克和阿富汗两道敞开的伤口上流血，而且看不到缓和的迹象。这两场战争持续的时间都已超过第二次世界大战。美国军队是历史上技术最先进的军队，却无法击败一群使用上世纪六十年代研制的武器的武装分子。因此，它不得不依靠各种代理力量，以免颜面尽失。伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争，以及美国至今无法脱身的事实，被人们拿来与1899年的布尔战争相提并论。布尔战争被视为大英帝国走向衰落的开端。战争的具体细节也与美国在伊拉克和阿富汗的情形有着相似之处。

Today America is bleeding from two open wounds in Iraq and Afghanistan that show no signs of abating. Both wars have now lasted longer than WW2. The US army, the most technologically advanced in history has been unable to defeat a band of fighters using weapons developed in the 1960’s. As a result it has to rely on a variety of surrogates to avoid embarrassment. The Iraq and Afghan wars and the fact that the US has been unable to extricate itself has been compared to the Boer war of 1899, which is considered the beginning of the end of the British empire. The details of the war bear a similar resemblance to the US in Iraq and Afghanistan.

在成功结束苏丹恩图曼战役之后，英国军队以两比一的劣势取胜。与美国一样，大英帝国也为其战争提出了理由：帝国宣称必须保护讲英语的人民的权利，他们当时被当作二等公民对待。事实上，布尔人是农民，统治着钻石矿区；1886年金矿被发现后，许多外国人涌向今天的南非，参与那里的淘金热。到1899年，南非的布尔人地区生产了世界25%的黄金。

After successfully concluding the war of Omdurman in Sudan where the British army was outnumbered two to one. Britain just like the US presented their reasons for the war, the Empire argued the rights of the English speaking people, who were treated as second class citizens had to be protected. In reality the Boers – farmers, resided over diamond fields and with the discovery of Gold in 1886, many foreigners hurried to what is today South Africa to participate in its Gold rush. In 1899 the Boer area of South Africa was producing 25% of the world’s gold.

帝国所面对的是约45,000名来自德兰士瓦和奥兰治自由邦的农民。他们懂得如何保卫自己的土地，并且得到了当地大多数原住民的支持，还采用了游击战术。当大英帝国在战场上拥有庞大的军队时，这种战术是无法被遏制的。因此，帝国诉诸残酷的手段，包括焚毁整个村庄、为平民设立集中营，以及实施即决处决。

The Empire faced around 45,000 farmers the Transvaal and the Orange Free State who knew how to defend their land, they had the support of most of the indigenous population and utilised guerrilla tactics which was impossible to contain when the British Empire had such a large army on the ground. As a result the Empire resorted to brutal tactics that included burning down whole villages, creating concentration camps for the population and resorting to summery executions.

布尔人一直坚持到1902年，最终才投降。英国虽然在战争中获胜，因为它击败了敌人，但实际上却在实质上失败了。到战争结束时，英国在前线投入了45万兵力，对抗的仅是一支4.5万人的民兵武装。英国损失了4.5万名士兵，在战争投入上严重超支，其军力也被拉伸到了极限。然而，其残酷的手段永久性地损害了英国在国内外的事业。当时的各大强国都揭露了英国的战术，而在国内，英国在世界上的角色也受到质疑：为了给予人民自由，却屠杀了大批民众。

The Boers held out until 1902 when they eventually surrendered. Whilst Britain actually won the war as they defeated the enemy in reality they had lost. By the wars end Britain had 450,000 troops on the ground fighting a mere militia of 45,000. Britain lost 45,000 troops and had massively overspent in the war effort and has stretched its military to breaking point. However its brutal tactics undermined the British cause forever at home and abroad. Whilst all the powers of the day exposed British tactics, domestically Britain’s role in the world was questioned when you kill the masses in order to give them freedom.

如今回首，二者的相似之处十分醒目：美国曾就大规模杀伤性武器撒谎，速战速决的承诺让位于漫长的占领，高层的腐败与无能随之而来。美国为此付出了巨大代价，而且这一代价至今仍在持续。关塔那摩监狱二十五年来一直损害着美国最重要的“出口品”——人权。与此同时，美国军力被视为过度扩张，其地位也被认为难以为继。

Fast forward to today and the similarities are striking, the US lied about weapons of mass destruction, and quick victory gave way to long occupations, which has seen corruption and incompetence at the highest level. The cost to the US has been massive and continues. Guantanamo bay has undermined America’s chief export for over a quarter of a century – human rights. Similarly the US military is viewed as overstretched and America’s position is seen as untenable.

除了美国发动的战争之外,美国还在世界各地面临诸多挑战,而仅仅十年前,它在这些地区还拥有完全的主导地位。世界正从美国作为享有不受挑战霸权的单极强国,转向一个多极世界,其他国家正在挑战美国的实力。美国发现,它现在必须与其他大国分享世界石油,而这些大国对石油的需求丝毫没有放缓的迹象。中国、印度、日本和欧盟都在争夺世界石油,而几十年来,美国几乎一直控制着这些石油。尽管美国经济仍是世界最大的经济体,但随着中国、印度、巴西、日本、墨西哥、土耳其和俄罗斯等国继续快速增长,美国在全球经济中所占的份额正在缩小。

Aside from America’s wars, the US is facing numerous challenges in different regions of the world which only a decade ago it completely dominated. The world is moving away from the US as the uni-polar power who enjoys uncontested hegemony to a multi-polar world where other nations are challenging US prowess. The US is finding that it now has to share the world’s oil with other powers whose appetite shows no sign of slowing down anytime soon. China, India, Japan and the European Union are all competing for the world’s oil, which the US has virtually controlled for decades. Whilst the US economy is the world’s largest economy its share of the global economy is shrinking as nations such as China, India, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Turkey and Russia continue their rapid growth.