Uingereza: Nguvu ya Uongo
Britain: The Phoney Power
Nafasi ya Uingereza duniani kwa kawaida huhusishwa na silaha za nyuklia, ugaidi, na uhusiano maalum na Marekani. Uingereza ilikuwa nguvu kuu ya dunia kwa miaka 150 hadi Vita vya Pili vya Dunia, ambapo ilifanikiwa kuzuia jaribio la Napoleon la kuiteka Ulaya, kisha jaribio la Ujerumani la kuikalia Ulaya mwanzoni mwa karne ya 20. Uingereza tena ndiyo iliyokuwa mstari wa mbele kupambana na jaribio la Hitler la kuiteka Ulaya. Maslahi ya Uingereza hayajabadilika kwa miaka mingi.
Britain's role in the world usually centres on nuclear weapons, terrorism and the special relationship with the US. Britain’s was the worlds superpower for 150 years until WW2 where it successfully halted Napoleon’s attempt at conquering Europe, then Germany’s attempts at occupying Europe in the early 20th century. It was again Britain who was at the forefront of facing against Hitler’s attempts at conquering Europe. British interests have not changed over the years.
Vita vya Pili vya Dunia viliiathiri Uingereza kwa kiwango kikubwa hadi vikasababisha kumalizika kwa Dola la Uingereza na hadhi yake ya kimataifa. Hii ilitokana na ukweli kwamba Uingereza ilikuwa karibu imefilisika kutokana na Vita vya Kwanza vya Dunia. Jeshi lake lilikuwa limezidiwa, na Uingereza haikuwa katika nafasi ya kuingia katika vita nyingine. Ndiyo sababu katika zama za baada ya vita, malengo ya Uingereza ya kimataifa yamewekewa mipaka na uhalisia wake wa kiuchumi. Kwa sababu hiyo, Uingereza ilifanya kazi na inaendelea kuwa na nafasi duniani kwa kushiriki katika masuala ya kimataifa, lakini haiwezi kubadilisha kabisa mizani ya nguvu duniani. Fareed Zakaria, mwandishi wa safu ya kimataifa wa jarida la Newsweek, katika kitabu chake ‘The Post American World,’ alieleza sera ya Uingereza kwa ufupi: "Picha za Roosevelt, Stalin na Churchill katika Mkutano wa Yalta mwezi Februari 1945 zinapotosha kiasi fulani. Hakukuwa na 'wakubwa watatu' huko Yalta. Kulikuwa na 'wakubwa wawili' pamoja na mjasiriamali mmoja wa kisiasa mwenye akili nyingi ambaye aliweza kujiweka yeye mwenyewe na nchi yake katika mchezo, hivyo Uingereza ilihifadhi vipengele vingi vya uwezo wa kuwa dola kubwa hadi mwishoni mwa karne ya 20."29
World War Two consumed Britain to such an extent that it brought an end to the British Empire and its international standing. This was because Britain was virtually bankrupt from WW1. Its army was overstretched and Britain was not in a position to enter another war. This is why in the post war era, British global aims have been restricted by its economic reality. For this reason Britain worked and continues to have a role in the world by partaking in global issues, however it is unable to completely shift the global balance of power. Fareed Zakaria, the Newsweek international columnist in his book ‘The Post American World,’ encapsulated British policy: "The photographs of Roosevelt, Stalin and Churchill at the Yalta Conference in February 1945 are somewhat misleading. There was no 'big three' at Yalta. There was a 'big two' plus one brilliant political entrepreneur who was able to keep himself and his country in the game, so that Britain maintained many elements of great powerdom well into the late 20th century."29
Sera ya Uingereza leo imejengwa juu ya kuwa na nafasi barani Ulaya na kushawishi Marekani. Watunga sera wa Uingereza wamekubali udhaifu wa taifa hilo baada ya Vita vya Pili vya Dunia, na wameunda sera ya kuhifadhi hadhi yake badala ya kushindana waziwazi na Marekani. Uingereza imefanikiwa kulinda maslahi yake kupitia sera ya kuhifadhi malengo yake ya kimataifa kwa kushirikiana na Marekani na Umoja wa Ulaya, huku pia ikifanya kazi ya kuvuruga, kubadilisha, kutatiza na kupunguza malengo ya pande zote mbili. Sera za hivi karibuni za Uingereza za kufikia maslahi yake zinaonyesha kwamba kisiasa Uingereza kama taifa itaendelea kushindana na Marekani daima, lakini zaidi ya hapo haina rasilimali wala uchumi wa kufikia chochote cha maana.
British foreign policy today is built upon having a role in Europe and influencing the US. British policy makers have accepted the nation's weakness after WW2 and developed a policy of preservation rather then outright competition with the US. Britain has managed to achieve its interests through a policy of preserving its global ambitions by working with the US and the EU, whilst at the same time working to divert, alter, complicate and limit the aims of both. Britain’s recent policies to achieve its interests show that politically Britain as a nation will always compete with the US, however beyond this it lacks the resources or the economy to achieve anything substantial.
Libya
- Libya
Uingereza ulizuia mipango ya Marekani kwa kuiokoa serikali ya Gaddafi kutoka mikononi mwa wahafidhina mamboleo wa Kimarekani ambao, baada ya tarehe 11 Septemba, walitaka kuing'oa serikali ya Libya. Uingereza ilimshawishi Gaddafi akubali dhima ya Libya katika janga la Lockerbie, na ikapata kuachiliwa kwa Al-Megrahi mwaka 2009, na hivyo kupata, kwa upande wake, usambazaji thabiti wa mafuta ya Afrika.
Britain frustrated US plans by rescuing Gaddafi's government from the clutches of American neoconservatives who after September 11 wanted regime change in Libya. Britain manipulated Gaddafi into accepting Libya’s role in the Lockerbie disaster and secured the release of Al-Megrahi in 2009, securing in turn a stable supply of Africa’s oil.
Afghanistan
- Afghanistan
Nchini Afghanistan, Uingereza imekuwa na nafasi ya kutisha. Baada ya miaka minane ya vita, washirika wa Magharibi bado hawako karibu zaidi kuwashinda Taliban. Wakati wadau wote wenye maslahi nchini Afghanistan walipokutana London mnamo Januari 2009 ili kukubaliana makubaliano ya kuwavutia Taliban kwa ahadi za nafasi serikalini, Uingereza inaonekana kuvuruga uwepo wa Marekani kusini mwa Afghanistan, ambako mapigano mengi bado yanaendelea. Mkoa wa Helmand, ambako wanajeshi wa Uingereza wamewekwa, bado haujawa salama baada ya miaka yote hii. Uingereza ilifanya makubaliano na Taliban kusini, ambayo yalijumuisha kuwahonga Taliban; uchunguzi wa gazeti la London Times mwaka 2007 ulifichua kwamba zaidi ya pauni milioni 1.5 zilitumika kuwahonga wanachama wa Taliban.30 Vivyo hivyo, utafiti wa Afghanistan Analysts Network, taasisi huru ya fikra yenye makao yake mjini Kabul, katika ripoti yake iliyoitwa Golden Surrender, ulikosoa vikali Mpango wa Amani na Upatanisho (PTS) unaoungwa mkono na Uingereza, ulioanzishwa mwaka 2005, ambao kwa mujibu wao umeachwa ukiyumba chini ya uongozi mbovu, bila mtaji wa kisiasa wala wa kifedha uliohitajika.
In Afghanistan the UK has played an ominous role. After eight years of war the western allies are no closer to defeating the Taliban. Whilst all those with interests in Afghanistan met in London in January 2009 to hammer out a deal to entice the Taliban with offers of government positions, Britain appears to have complicated America's presence in South Afghanistan where most of the fighting still continues. The Helmand province where British troops are stationed is still not secure after all these years. Britain cut deals with the Taliban in the South which included bribing the Taliban, the London Times investigation in 2007 revealed over £1.5 million was spent in bribing members of the Taliban.30 Similarly Research by the independent Afghanistan Analysts Network, a Kabul-based think tank, in a report, titled Golden Surrender, was highly critical of the British-backed Peace and Reconciliation Scheme (PTS), established in 2005, which it says has been left to flounder under bad leadership with neither the political nor the financial capital it required.
Sudan
- Sudan
Marekani ilisimamia makubaliano ya amani ya Naivasha mwaka 2005, ambayo hatimaye yalisababisha kumalizika kwa vita vya wenyewe kwa wenyewe kati ya kundi kuu la waasi, Harakati/Jeshi la Ukombozi la Watu wa Sudan (SPLM/A), na serikali ya Sudan. Masharti ya makubaliano hayo yalijumuisha hatua mbalimbali zilizoipa Kusini uhuru wa kujitawala na matarajio ya kujitenga mwaka 2011, wakati makubaliano hayo yatakapomalizika muda wake. Uingereza na Ufaransa zote mbili ziliipa Chad silaha, nchi inayoziunga mkono na kuziwezesha kwa silaha waasi wa Darfur, jambo lililozua suala la Darfur. Mataifa yote mawili yamefanikiwa kulifanya suala la Darfur kuwa la kimataifa na kuvuruga mipango ya Marekani ya kuitenganisha Kusini mwa Sudan na kuigeuza kuwa taifa huru. Badala yake, sasa Marekani inapaswa kushughulikia suala la Darfur, hali inayochelewesha mipango yake kwa Kusini.
America brokered the Naivasha peace accord in 2005, which culminated in the eventual termination of the civil war between the main rebel group, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) and the Sudanese government. The terms of the agreement included a variety of measures that gave the South autonomy and the prospects of secession in 2011 when the deal expires. Both Britain and France provided arms to Chad, which supports and arms the rebels in Darfur, which created the Darfur issue. Both nations have successfully internationalised the issue of Darfur and complicated US plans to separate the South of Sudan and turn it into an independent nation. Instead the US must now deal with the Darfur issue thus delaying its plans for the South.
Lebanon
- Lebanon
Nchini Lebanon, mauaji ya wanasiasa mashuhuri yamegawanya sana Lebanon katika makundi mawili: kambi inayounga mkono Syria na Hizbullah, na kambi inayounga mkono Umoja wa Ulaya. Muungano wa Machi 8, unaoongozwa na Hizbullah, ulitumia kura yake ya turufu kuzuia kuundwa kwa serikali. Uingereza na Ufaransa zote mbili zimeshirikiana na muungano wa Machi 14, unaoongozwa na Harakati ya Future ya Saad Hariri, ili kudumisha umuhimu wao katika siasa za Lebanon. Hizbullah imefanikiwa kuhakikisha kwamba maslahi ya Marekani yanalindwa nchini Lebanon kwa kutumia kura yake ya turufu, jambo ambalo limesababisha vyama vinavyounga mkono Umoja wa Ulaya kushindwa kupata wengi, hivyo kushindwa kuunda serikali peke yake. Kwa njia hii, Marekani imeshindwa kuigeuza Lebanon kuwa ngome yake.
In Lebanon the assassinations of prominent politicians have deeply divided Lebanon into pro-Syrian/Hizbullah and pro-EU camps. The Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition utilised its veto vote to complicate the forming of a government. Both Britain and France have engaged with the March 14 coalition led by Saad Hariri's Future Movement to maintain their relevance in Lebanese politics. Hizbullah has successfully ensured US interests are protected in Lebanon by utilising its veto vote resulting in none of the pro-EU parties from achieving a majority and therefore unilaterally forming a government. In this way the US has been unable to turn Lebanon into a US stronghold.
Iran
- Iran
Wakati Uingereza ni mwanachama wa tume ya P5 + 1 inayojaribu kuiweka Iran katika mstari na kusimamisha juhudi zake za kurutubisha Uranium hadi kiwango cha silaha, imetumia nafasi yake kuvuruga maslahi ya Marekani. Katika uchaguzi wa Iran wa mwaka 2009, Uingereza pamoja na Ulaya ilikuza matokeo ya uchaguzi kupita kiasi na kufanya kazi kuitumia hali hiyo. Uingereza ilisema kwamba utawala wa Iran unapaswa kushughulikia malalamiko halali ya waandamanaji; pia haukutambua uhalali wa Ahmadinejad. Marekani, kwa upande mwingine, ambayo inataka kuweka vikwazo vikali dhidi ya nchi hiyo, kwa kweli iliunga mkono utawala huo kwa kusema kwamba suala hilo lilikuwa la ndani la Iran. Uingereza na Ufaransa zilijaribu kushawishi maandamano, lakini ilikuwa jaribio dhaifu la kuangusha utawala wa Ahmadinejad. Vilevile Marekani ilitumia wanachama wasio wa kudumu wa Umoja wa Mataifa, kukabiliana na shinikizo lililoongezeka kutoka Uingereza, ili kusukuma mbele vikwazo vya mafuta ya petroli dhidi ya Iran. Kwa Marekani, mgogoro wa nyuklia unatimiza malengo kadhaa yake katika eneo hilo, ndiyo maana mgogoro huo haufikii matokeo yoyote ya mwisho, bila kujali maneno ya wakati huo. Kwa kushirikiana na Marekani katika suala hili, Uingereza imefanya kazi kudhoofisha Marekani.
Whilst Britain is member of the P5 + 1 commission attempting to bring Iran in line and halt its attempts to enrich Uranium to weapons grade standard, it has used its role to complicate American interests. In the Iranian elections in 2009 Britain alongside Europe blew the election result out of proportion and worked to exploit the situation. Britain argued that the Iranian regime needs to address the legitimate concerns of the protesters; they also didn’t recognize the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad. The US on the other hand, who is looking to impose harsh sanctions on the country, actually supported the regime by arguing that the issue was an Iranian domestic matter. Britain and France had tried to influence the protests, but it was a weak attempt to bring down the Ahmadinejad’s regime. Similarly the US made use of the non-permanent members of the United Nations in the face increased pressure from Britain to push ahead with crippling gasoline sanctions against Iran. For the US the nuclear stand-off achieves a number of its aims in the region, this is why the stand off never reaches anything conclusive, whatever the rhetoric at the time. By working with the US on the issue Britain has worked to undermine the US.
Ulaya
- Europe
Serikali za Uingereza zimeona kwamba kujitenga kabisa na Umoja wa Ulaya hakuwezekani kiuhalisia. Ulaya iko karibu sana na ni kubwa mno kiasi cha kupuuzwa tu. Serikali mfululizo za Uingereza zinaamini kwamba kupitia ushirikiano, London inaweza kuathiri maendeleo ya Umoja wa Ulaya na mwelekeo wa mwisho wa sera zake. Haipingi muungano wa kisiasa wa Ulaya, mradi tu London isigeuke kuwa Luxemburg na kuyeyuka ndani ya Umoja wa Ulaya; inataka kiti chenye heshima mezani katika muungano wa namna hiyo.
The British establishment views complete isolationism from the EU as unrealistic. Europe is too close and too large to be simply ignored. Successive British governments believe that through engagement, London can influence the EU’s development and the ultimate direction of its policies. It is not opposed to a European political union, as long as London does not turn into Luxemburg and melt into the EU, it wants a prominent seat at the table of such a union.
Udanganyifu wa Kiuchumi
Economic Deceit
Uingereza imefanikiwa kujibakiza katika mchezo wa kimataifa kwa kushiriki katika masuala yote ya kimataifa. Mfano wa hilo ni vita vya Afghanistan. Uingereza haina maslahi makubwa katika nchi hiyo, lakini imeshiriki katika vita vilivyoongozwa na Marekani ili kubaki na umuhimu, na kwa njia hii inaweza kuathiri matokeo ya mzozo huo. Hii ndiyo yote ambayo Uingereza itapata; haitaweza kuiondoa nguvu kubwa ya dunia kutoka nafasi yake, kwa sababu haina nguvu, uchumi wala rasilimali za kufanya hivyo.
Britain has successfully kept itself in the international game through participating in all international issues. An example of this is the Afghan war, Britain has no overriding interests in the country, however it has participated in the US led war to keep itself relevant and in this way it is able to shape the outcome of the conflict. This is all Britain will achieve; it will never shift the worlds superpower from its post as it lacks the power, economy or resources.
Ingawa Uingereza ina uchumi wa pauni trilioni 1.5, wa sita duniani, Uingereza haina msingi wa viwanda unaoweza kuleta changamoto yoyote kwa Marekani. Uingereza ina malengo ya kimataifa na imebobea sana katika ujanja wa kisiasa; hata hivyo, inajipatia nafasi kubwa kuliko uwezo wake halisi. Uingereza ilifilisika kutokana na gharama za Vita vya Kwanza vya Dunia, na haikuwa na uwezo wa kupinga kupanda kwa Ujerumani ya Kinazi. Hili kwa kiasi fulani linaeleza sera ya kutuliza ya Neville Chamberlain. Hata hivyo, Ujerumani ya Hitler ilipokuwa imeimiliki sehemu kubwa ya Ulaya na ilikuwa karibu kuiondoa Uingereza kama dola kuu ya dunia, Uingereza iliingia vitani ili kuzuia maendeleo ya Ujerumani. Umoja wa Kisovieti ulianzisha mashambulizi ya upande wa mashariki, na Uingereza pamoja na Marekani zilizindua mashambulizi maarufu ya kutua Ufaransa, yaani D-Day. Kwa njia hiyo, Ujerumani ilishindwa kufikia mwaka 1945. Hata hivyo, si Uingereza iliyoishinda Ujerumani; ni Umoja wa Kisovieti na Marekani. Uingereza iliharibiwa vibaya, nchi ilikuwa magofu, na kiuchumi Dola la Uingereza halikuwa na uwezo wa kugharamia himaya yake ya kimataifa.
Whilst Britain has a £1.5 trillion economy, the 6th largest in the world Britain lacks the industrial base to pose any challenge to the US. Britain has global aims and has mastered the art of political manoeuvring; however it punches above its weight. Britain was bankrupt due to the costs of WW1, it was in no position to challenge the rise of Nazi Germany, and this in some way explains Neville Chamberlain appeasement. However with Hitler’s Germany occupying most of Europe and on the verge of removing Britain as the world’s superpower Britain went to war to reverse Germany’s advance, with the Soviet Union launching an Eastern offensive and with Britain and the US launching the infamous D-day offensive landings in France, Germany was defeated by 1945. However it was not Britain who defeated Germany – it was the Soviet Union and the US, Britain was devastated, the country lay in ruins and economically the British Empire was in no position to fund its global empire.
Hitimisho
Conclusions
Mkakati wa Uingereza wa kimataifa umejengwa juu ya kulinda safu ya maslahi yake. Hili linaweza kufupishwa kama Uingereza kuchanganya, kubadilisha na kuelekeza kando mipango ya mamlaka nyingine duniani. Ndivyo Uingereza inavyojiweka muhimu. Kutokana na hali ya kiuchumi ya Uingereza, haina uwezo wa kufikia zaidi ya hapo. Uingereza inaweza kuchanganya mipango ya mamlaka nyingine kubwa duniani kwa kiwango cha kuchukuliwa kwa uzito duniani, ndiyo maana Marekani mara chache sana huchukua hatua peke yake, na kwa kawaida huichukua Uingereza pamoja nayo. Kwa Uingereza, hili ni kiti cha mbele karibu na mamlaka kuu ya dunia, na inaweza kuona kwa macho yake mwenyewe jinsi mipango ya Marekani inavyobadilika. Hii inaiweka katika nafasi ya kwanza kunufaika na malengo ya Marekani, na kuipa chaguo la kuchanganya mipango ya Marekani ikiwa inatumikia malengo yake. Uingereza inapaswa kukabiliana na uwezekano wa Urusi inayorejea kwa nguvu, na pia na Iraq na Afghanistan kuwa ngumu zaidi kila siku. Uingereza pia itakabiliwa na uwezekano wa Ujerumani na Ufaransa kujiimarisha zaidi barani Ulaya baada ya Mkataba wa Lisbon, wakiunda Umoja wa Ulaya kulingana na maslahi yao. Uingereza itaendelea kufanya kazi na Marekani huko Palestina, Iraq na Afghanistan, na kuendelea kubadilisha na kuchanganya mipango ya Marekani ili kujiimarisha zaidi. Mbinu hii miwili, wakati mwingine inayopingana, ndiyo jinsi Uingereza inavyojiweka muhimu katika siasa za kimataifa. Hii ndiyo Uingereza imejiachia kwa nafasi yake katika siasa za kimataifa; haina tena uwezo wa kufikia kitu kikubwa zaidi. Uingereza inacheza mkono wake unaodhoofika kwa ustadi wa kisiasa wa kuvutia, lakini hili halitoshi kuifanya kuwa mamlaka kuu ya dunia.
Britain’s global outlook is based upon protecting the array of interests it has. This can be encapsulated as Britain complicating, altering and diverting the plans of other powers. This is how Britain keeps itself relevant. Due to the economic reality of Britain, it has no propensity to achieve anything more. Britain can complicate the plans of other world powers to the extent that it is taken seriously in the world, this is why the US very rarely goes it alone, and it usually takes Britain along with it. For Britain it has the front seat with the world’s superpower and can see at first hand US plans evolve, this places it in pole position to benefit from US aims and giving it the option to complicate US plans if this serves its aims. Britain has to deal with the prospect of a resurgent Russia and both Iraq and Afghanistan becoming ever more complex. Britain will also face the prospect of both Germany and France further entrenching themselves into Europe after the Lisbon treaty, shaping the EU in their interests. Britain will continue to work with the US in Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan and continue to alter and complicate US plans in order to keep strengthening itself. This dual, sometimes contradictory approach is how Britain keeps itself relevant in international politics. This is what Britain has resigned its role to in international politics; it no longer has the ability to achieve anything more substantial. Britain plays its weakening hand with impressive political skill, however this is insufficient in becoming the worlds superpower.