India: Gharika ya Matatizo - Karne ya Marekani Imekwisha | Quran Course

India: Gharika ya Matatizo - Karne ya Marekani Imekwisha | Quran Course

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India: Gharika ya Matatizo

India: A Deluge Of Problems

by Adnan Khan6 min readViewed 99 times

Kwa zaidi ya karne moja, ulimwengu wa Magharibi ulitawala maendeleo ya kiuchumi na hata kufanikiwa kufafanua maendeleo kuwa ni njia waliyoichukua ili kupata maendeleo. Kama ilivyo kwa China, India imechambuliwa na wanauchumi, wataalamu wa jiografia ya kisiasa, idara za kijasusi na wanaotabiri mustakabali. Leo India inatambuliwa kama moja ya nchi za BRIC, taifa linalokua kwa kasi kutokana na kukumbatia Ubepari wa kimataifa. Imekuwa vigumu kutoitambua India, iwe ni kwa misheni yake ya mwezi isiyo na rubani iliyofanikiwa, utengenezaji wa gari lenye bei nafuu zaidi duniani, Tata Nano, au upatikanaji wa Jaguar Land Rover na kampuni hiyo hiyo, au ukweli kwamba India ni nyumbani kwa vituo vingi vya huduma kwa wateja (call centres) duniani. Pamoja na kuundwa kwa silaha za nyuklia na idadi ya watu bilioni 1.2 yenye nguvu kazi ya milioni 500, kwa wengi India ina viungo vyote vya kuwa nguvu kubwa ya baadaye. Wachambuzi wamesifu uanachama wa India katika soko huria la kimataifa, na mfano wa maendeleo wa India unapigiwa debe kuwa hadithi nyingine ya mafanikio ya Ubepari.

The Western world for over a century dominated economic development and has managed to even define development as the path they undertook to achieve progress. Like China, India has been analysed by economists, geopolitical experts, intelligence agencies and futurologists. India today is recognised as a BRIC nation, a nation rapidly developing due to embracing global Capitalism. It has become difficult to not notice India whether this is its successful unmanned lunar mission, the creation of the world’s cheapest car - the Tata Nano, or the acquisition of Jaguar Land Rover by the same company or the fact that India is home to many of the worlds call centres. Combined with the development of nuclear weapons and a population of 1.2 billion with a workforce of 500 million, for many India has all the ingredients to become a future power. Commentators have praised India's membership of the global free market and the Indian development model is being hailed as another success story of Capitalism.

Baada ya kugawanywa kwa India, nchi hiyo ilitekeleza mipango kadhaa ya miaka mitano kwa kufuata misingi ya Ujamaa, ili kufikia maendeleo ya kiuchumi na ustawi. Kwa kushirikiana na Umoja wa Kisovieti wakati wa Vita Baridi, teknolojia ilianza kuingia India, na maeneo ya Umoja wa Kisovieti yakawa soko kuu la mauzo ya nje ya India. Hadi mageuzi ya kiuchumi ya miaka ya 1990, uchumi wa India uliitwa "licence raj", yaani mfumo wa leseni za kina, kanuni, na urasimu uliohitajika ili kuanzisha na kuendesha biashara nchini India. Uchumi wa India ulikuwa na sifa za ulinzi wa biashara za ndani, umiliki wa umma, na rushwa.

After partition India implemented a number of 5 year plans along Socialist lines in order to achieve economic development and prosperity. By aligning with the USSR during the Cold War, technology flowed into India and the territories of the USSR become India’s key export market. Until the liberalisation drive in the 1990’s India’s economy was termed ‘licence raj,’ this was the elaborate licenses, regulations and the accompanying red tape that were required to set up and run a businesses in India. India's economy was characterised with protectionism, public ownership and corruption.

Ilikuwa ni kuanguka kwa Umoja wa Kisovieti ndiko kulikoilazimisha India kubadili mwelekeo wake. Kuanguka kwa Umoja wa Kisovieti, ambao ulikuwa mshirika mkuu wa India katika biashara, kulisababisha mgogoro wa kiuchumi. Wakati huo huo, vita vya Ghuba pia vilisababisha kupanda kwa bei ya mafuta, jambo lililozua mgogoro wa kifedha na kuilazimisha India kugeukia Shirika la Fedha la Kimataifa (IMF). India ilipewa mkopo wa dola bilioni 1.8 kama msaada wa dharura kutoka IMF, ambao kwa malipo yake ulihitaji mageuzi mengi makali. Kwa karibu miaka 50, viongozi mfululizo wa India walikuwa wamefunga uchumi wa India kwa dunia ya nje, na IMF ikaitaka India ifungue soko lake la ndani lenye watu bilioni moja. Kutokana na lugha kali iliyoelekezwa kwa India na utawala wa Marekani kwa sababu ya kukwama kwa mazungumzo kuhusu Kashmir, Narasimha Rao alianzisha uhuru wa kiuchumi nchini India, akiruhusu kampuni kubwa za kimataifa kuingia katika soko la India, na hivyo kutangaza kukubalika kwa India kwa ubepari wa kidunia.

It was the fall of the Soviet Union that forced India to change its direction. The collapse of the Soviet Union, which was India's major trading partner, caused an economic crisis. At the same time the Gulf war also led to oil price rises, causing a financial crisis and forcing India to turn to the IMF. India was given a $1.8 billion bailout loan from IMF, which in return required many stringent reforms. For nearly 50 years successive Indian leaders closed the Indian economy to the outside world, the IMF demanded India to open its one billion domestic market. With strong rhetoric directed towards India by the US administration due to the stalemate on Kashmir, Narasimha Rao began the liberalisation of the Indian economy allowing foreign multinational companies to enter the Indian market and heralding India's embracement of global Capitalism.

Uliberali, ubinafsishaji na kufungua kwa uchumi wa India ulikabidhiwa kwa waziri wa fedha ambaye wakati huo alikuwa mchumi asiyejulikana - Manmohan Singh, (waziri mkuu wa sasa). Manmohan Singh alianzisha mageuzi kwa kufungua masoko ya India kwa uwekezaji wa kigeni, kufungua masoko ya mitaji ya India kwa benki za uwekezaji za kigeni, kuondoa udhibiti wa biashara za ndani na kurekebisha mfumo wa biashara. Uliberali uliondoa Licence Raj na kumaliza monopolia nyingi za umma, na kuruhusu idhini ya moja kwa moja ya uwekezaji wa moja kwa moja wa kigeni katika sekta nyingi.

The liberalisation, privatisation and opening of the Indian economy were handed to a finance minister who was at the time an unknown economist - Manmohan Singh, (the current prime minister). Manmohan Singh instituted reforms through opening Indian markets to foreign investment, opening India’s capital markets to foreign investment banks, deregulating domestic businesses and reforming the trade regime. Liberalisation got rid of Licence Raj and ended many public monopolies, allowing automatic approval of foreign direct investment in many sectors.

Baada ya karibu miaka 20 ya kutekeleza mageuzi, miji kama Bangalore imepata umaarufu na umuhimu mkubwa wa kiuchumi, na imekuwa vituo vya uwekezaji wa kigeni. Wakati wa kuanza kwa mageuzi, uchumi wa India ulikuwa dola bilioni 317 tu; leo uchumi wa India umekua hadi dola trilioni 1.2 zenye kushangaza, ukiwa uchumi wa 12 kwa ukubwa duniani na uchumi unaokua kwa kasi zaidi duniani baada ya China.

After nearly 20 years of implementing reforms cities such as Bangalore have risen in prominence and economic importance and have became centres for foreign investment. On the eve of reform India’s economy was a mere $317 billion, today the Indian economy has grown to a whopping $1.2 trillion, the 12th largest economy in the world and the world’s fastest growing economy after China.

Kuhamasishwa kwa uchumi wa India kumesababisha India kubadilika kutoka uchumi uliotawaliwa na kilimo hadi uchumi ambao sekta ya huduma huzalisha asilimia 54 ya utajiri wa taifa. Huduma za biashara kama vile TEHAMA (IT) na utoaji wa michakato ya biashara kwa makampuni ya nje (business process outsourcing) huchangia asilimia 33 ya jumla ya uzalishaji wa huduma. Kampuni kadhaa za India zilijumuishwa miongoni mwa kampuni 15 bora duniani za utoaji wa huduma za teknolojia kwa makampuni ya nje mwaka 2009.13 Ukuaji wa sekta ya TEHAMA ya India umetokana na kuongezeka kwa umahiri maalumu na upatikanaji wa idadi kubwa ya wafanyakazi wenye gharama ndogo lakini waliobobea na wenye elimu ya juu. Hata hivyo, mchango wa sekta ya TEHAMA ya India katika uchumi wa India bado ni mdogo kiasi, na kwa sasa ni asilimia 7 tu ya uchumi. Mapato ya kila mwaka kutokana na shughuli za utoaji wa huduma kwa makampuni ya nje nchini India kwa sasa yanafikia dola bilioni 60 za Marekani, na inatarajiwa kuongezeka hadi dola bilioni 225 ifikapo mwaka 2020.

The liberalisation of India's economy has resulted in India transforming from an economy that was dominated by agriculture to one where the service sector generates 54% of the nation’s wealth. Business services such as IT and business process outsourcing contribute 33% to the total output of services. Several Indian firms were listed among the top 15 technology outsourcing companies in the world in 2009.13 The growth in India's IT sector has been a result of increased specialisation and an availability of a large pool of low cost, but highly skilled and educated workers. However the share of India’s IT industry to the Indian economy is still relatively small and is currently only 7% of the economy. Annual revenues from outsourcing operations in India currently stand at $60 billion and this is expected to increase to $225 billion by 2020.

Sekta ya viwanda ya India huzalisha 29% ya utajiri wa India, lakini bado inatawaliwa na utengenezaji mdogo wa kaya. Ingawa maendeleo yamefanyika katika uundaji wa programu za kompyuta, sekta ya viwanda ya India bado inatawaliwa na oligopoli za kampuni za kifamilia za zamani, ambazo zimetumia uhusiano wa kisiasa kustawi pale zinapokabiliwa na ushindani wa kigeni. Sera ya serikali inajikita katika kukuza ubunifu wa bidhaa mpya, na kutegemea gharama ndogo za kazi na teknolojia.

India's industry generates 29% of India's wealth but is still dominated by simple household manufacturing. Whilst advances have been made in software development India's industry is still dominated by oligopolies of old family firms who have used political connections to prosper when faced with foreign competition. Government policy is centred on promoting the designing of new products and relying on low labour costs and technology.

Kilimo huzalisha asilimia 17 ya utajiri wa India; hata hivyo, ndicho kinachoajiri sehemu kubwa ya wafanyakazi wa India, watu 2 kati ya kila 3 wa India hufanya kazi katika sekta ya kilimo ya India. India ni mzalishaji mkubwa zaidi wa mazao ya kilimo duniani baada ya China, na huzalisha ndizi, mapera ya sapota, maziwa, korosho, nazi, chai, tangawizi, manjano na pilipili nyeusi kuliko taifa lolote duniani. India ina idadi kubwa zaidi ya ng'ombe duniani, milioni 193, na huzalisha asilimia 10 ya matunda ya dunia.

Agriculture generates 17% of India's wealth; however it employs the vast majority of India's workforce, 2 out every 3 Indian's work in India's agricultural sector. India is the world's largest agricultural producer after China and produces more Bananas, Sapotas, Milk, Cashew nuts, Coconuts, Tea, Ginger, Turmeric and black pepper than any nation in the world. India has the world's largest cattle population of 193 million and produces 10% of the world's fruit.

Maendeleo ya India katika miongo miwili iliyopita yamekuwa yoyote isipokuwa ya usawa. Faida za uliberali na utandawazi bado zimezuiliwa kwa maeneo fulani ya kijiografia ya nchi na sekta fulani za kiuchumi. Mlipuko wa teknolojia ya habari umejikita katika miji mikubwa ya Kusini mwa India, wakati sekta ya petrokemikali inastawi zaidi huko Gujarat, magharibi mwa India. Sehemu kubwa za Kaskazini na Mashariki mwa India zimerudi nyuma sana katika maendeleo ya kiuchumi. Majimbo ya BIMARU ya kihistoria, yenye umaskini na idadi kubwa ya watu - Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh - bado ni uchumi unaotegemea zaidi kilimo.

India's development for the last two decades has been anything but equal. The benefits of liberalisation and globalisation are still restricted to certain geographical areas of the country and certain economic sectors. The IT boom is concentrated in the Southern metros of India while the petrochemicals sector is thriving mostly in Gujarat, in western India. Large parts of Northern and Eastern India are severely lagging in economic development. The traditionally poor and populous BIMARU states - Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh - are still largely agrarian economies.

Ingawa uchumi wa India umekua mara nne katika miongo miwili iliyopita, utajiri huu mpya umebaki mikononi mwa kundi dogo la watu. Asilimia 85 (milioni 930) ya wakazi wa India wanaishi kwa chini ya dola 2.50 kwa siku, idadi hii ni kubwa kuliko ile ya Afrika Kusini mwa Sahara. Asilimia 75 (milioni 822) ya wakazi wa India wanaishi kwa chini ya dola 2 kwa siku. Asilimia 24 (milioni 300) ya wakazi wa India wanaishi kwa chini ya dola 1 kwa siku. Hii inamaanisha kwamba asilimia 41 (milioni 444) ya Waindia wanaishi chini ya mstari wa umaskini wa kimataifa wa dola 1.25. Asilimia 33 ya watu duniani wanaoishi katika umaskini wanaishi India.

Whilst the Indian economy has grown fourfold over the last two decades, this new wealth has remained in the hands of a small minority of the population. 85% (930 million) of the Indian population lives on less than $2.50 a day, this is more than Sub-Saharan Africa. 75% (822 million) of the Indian population lives on less than $2 a day. 24% (300 million) of the Indian population live on less than $1 a day. This means 41% (444 million) Indians live below the international poverty line of $1.25. 33% of the world's population that lives in poverty resides in India.

Kwa taifa lolote kuwa na uwezo wa kuonyesha nguvu zake duniani, linahitaji kuendeleza miundombinu yake ya ndani ya barabara, bandari, mtandao wa umeme, usambazaji wa maji na mawasiliano ya simu, ili taifa lisonge mbele na kuendelea. Miundombinu ya India imekuja kujulikana kwa barabara zilizoharibika, viwanja vya ndege vilivyojaa msongamano, kukatika kwa umeme, na rushwa iliyoenea katika miradi mikubwa. Kampuni ya teknolojia ya India, Infosys Technologies Ltd, ilithibitisha kwamba kutokana na kukosekana kwa usafiri wa umma wa wingi mjini Bangalore, inatumia dola milioni 5 kila mwaka kwa mabasi, magari madogo ya abiria na teksi kusafirisha wafanyakazi wake 18,000 kwenda na kutoka ofisini na viwandani kwake.14 Kampuni hiyo pia ilithibitisha kwamba msongamano wa magari unamaanisha wafanyakazi wanaweza kutumia zaidi ya saa nne kila siku barabarani wakienda kazini na kurudi. Matumizi ya India katika eneo hili ni dola bilioni 31 pekee. India ina asilimia 1 tu ya magari yote duniani, lakini inachangia asilimia 8 ya vifo vyote vitokanavyo na ajali za magari duniani. Makadirio ya Goldman Sachs yameonyesha kwamba India itahitaji kutumia dola trilioni 1.7 katika miradi ya miundombinu katika muongo ujao ili kukabiliana na maendeleo yake ya kiuchumi ya haraka.15

For any nation to have any global power projection capabilities it needs to develop its domestic infrastructure of roads, ports, electricity grids, water supply and telecoms in order for the nation to move forward and progress. Indian infrastructure has come to be characterised with crumbling roads, jammed airports, and power blackouts and rampant corruption in mega projects. Indian technology firm Infosys Technologies Ltd confirmed that with virtually no mass transit in Bangalore it spends $5 million a year on buses, minivans, and taxis to transport its 18,000 employees to and from its offices and factories.14 It also confirmed that traffic jams mean workers can spend upwards of four hours commuting each day. India's spending in this area is only $31 billion. India has only 1% of the world's vehicles, but it accounts for 8% of the world's vehicle fatalities. Estimates by Goldman Sachs have shown that India will need to spend $1.7 trillion on infrastructure projects over the next decade to deal with its rapid economic development.15

Wakati huo huo, India ina matatizo mengine mengi ambayo itahitaji kuyatatua ikiwa ina matarajio ya kuwa nguvu kuu duniani, miongoni mwa hayo ni:

India at the same time has many other problems that it will need to overcome if it has any ambitions of becoming a superpower, among these are:

- Watoto 1000 wa India hufa kwa ugonjwa wa kuhara kila siku.

- 1000 Indian children die of diarrhea sickness every day.

- Asilimia 40 ya watoto walio chini ya umri wa miaka mitatu wana utapiamlo (uzito pungufu).

- 40% of children under the age of three are malnourished (underweight).

- Vijiji 100,000 havijawahi kusikia simu ikilia.

- 100,000 villages have never heard a telephone ring.

Kulingana na Benki ya Dunia, mjasiriamali anahitaji siku 35 kuanzisha biashara, siku 270 kupata leseni na vibali mbalimbali, siku 62 kusajili mali, takriban miaka 4 kutekeleza mikataba, na jambo la kushangaza ni miaka 10 kufunga biashara.16

- According to the World Bank it takes an entrepreneur 35 days to start a business, 270 days to obtain various licenses and permits, 62 days to register a property, nearly 4 years to enforce contracts, and a shocking 10 years to close a business.16

Mmoja kati ya kila Wahindi watatu wa mijini anaishi katika nyumba zilizo finyu kiasi kwamba hazizidi hata mahitaji ya chini kabisa ya seli ya gereza nchini Marekani.17

- One in every three urban Indians lives in homes too cramped to exceed even the minimum requirements of a prison cell in the US.17

- Watu milioni 338 nchini India hawawezi kusoma wala kuandika

- 338 million Indians cannot read or write

India haiwakilishi aina ya kipekee wala mpya ya maendeleo ya kiuchumi. Kupitishwa kwa soko huria na kuwa uchumi unaotegemea mauzo nje ni jambo ambalo mataifa ya Afrika, Amerika ya Kusini na Mashariki ya Mbali yote yamelijaribu. Kuwa kitovu cha dunia cha kutoa huduma za nje (outsourcing) pia hakutaweza kuchochea uchumi mkubwa wa India, kwa kuwa mkakati huo ni finyu mno kuweza kuchochea sekta nyingi za uchumi. Ndiyo maana miundombinu ya India iko katika hali ya machafuko, kwani sekta zile tu zinazotumika kama mistari ya msaada kwa huduma za nje, kama TEHAMA, ndizo zilizoendelea. Uchumi wa India unategemea zaidi soko lake kubwa la ndani, huku biashara ya nje ikichangia chini ya asilimia 15 ya Pato la Taifa la nchi. Mwelekeo wa kutegemea biashara ya kimataifa unaonekana kuongezeka, na kama mgogoro wa kifedha umeonyesha, kutegemea soko la dunia ni njia dhaifu ya kujenga uchumi. Hii ilikuwa mikakati kama hiyo iliyofuatwa na mataifa ya Asia ya "tiger" katika miaka ya 1980 na 1990, na matokeo yake yalikuwa mabaya mno mwaka 1997, katika kile kinachojulikana kama Mgogoro wa Asia.

India does not represent a unique or new form of economic development. The adoption of the free market and becoming an export driven economy is something nations in Africa, Latin America and the Far East have all attempted. Becoming the world's outsourcing hub will also not stimulate India’s huge economy as such a strategy is too narrow to stimulate multiple sectors of the economy, this is why India's infrastructure is in chaos as only those sectors that act as supply lines to outsourcing such as IT have seen development. India's economy is mostly dependent on its large internal market with external trade accounting for less than 15% of the country's GDP. The trend of relying on International trade looks set to increase and as the financial crisis has shown dependency on the global market is a fragile way to construct an economy. This was a similar strategy the Asian tiger economies pursued through the 1980's and 1990's with disastrous results in 1997, in what has come to be known as the Asian Crisis.

Masuala kama haya yataizuia India milele kuwa nguvu ya dunia. India, kwa upande mwingine, ina matatizo na changamoto nyingi zaidi za kimsingi ambazo daima zitazuia kuwa nguvu ya dunia isipoweza kuzishinda.

Such issues will stop India from ever becoming a global power. India on the other hand has a number of more fundamental problems and challenges that will always hinder it from becoming a global power unless they can be overcome:

Kisiasa, India ni taifa lenye mgawanyiko mkubwa sana, lenye makundi shindani yenye maslahi tofauti yanayovutana na kusukumana katika mistari mbalimbali ya kijiografia, kidini, kikabila-kitabaka na kitabaka cha kijamii. Kwa sehemu kubwa ya historia ya India baada ya kugawanywa (Partition), wanasiasa wa India wamezitumia tofauti hizo kwa faida zao za muda mfupi, bila kujisumbua kupanda juu ya tofauti ndogo ndogo na kuunganisha rasilimali za taifa. Ukweli kwamba India ndiyo demokrasia kubwa zaidi duniani ni tatizo kwa India, si faida. Demokrasia ya kibunge huzifanya tofauti hizo kuwa taasisi na huruhusu vyama kuanzishwa kulinda maslahi hayo. Matokeo yake, masuala mengi hukwama katika msuguano wa bungeni, kama ilivyoonekana katika mkataba wa nyuklia wa kiraia na Marekani.

- Politically, India is a hugely fragmented nation with competing factions with varying interests pulling and pushing across various geographical, religious, caste-based and class-based fault-lines. Indian politicians have, for most of India's post partition history, utilised the differences for their short term gains never bothering to rise above petty differences and marshal the resources of the nation. The fact that India is the world’s largest democracy is a problem not an advantage for India. Parliamentary democracy institutionalises differences and allows parties to be established to protect such interests. This results in most issues lingering into parliamentary deadlock as was seen with the civilian nuclear deal with the US.

- Uhindi una idadi ya watu bilioni 1.2, ambapo 80% ya wakazi ni Wahindu. Hata hivyo, Uhindi ni taifa lililogawanyika ambalo limeshindwa kuwaunganisha watu wake wachache, jambo ambalo limezaa tatizo la kujitenga, huku makundi mbalimbali yakiendesha kampeni za kikatili dhidi ya serikali ya Uhindi.

- India has a population of 1.2 billion, with 80% of the population Hindu. However India is a fragmented nation that has been unable to integrate its minorities, this has created a secessionist problem with various factions leading violent campaigns against the Indian government.

- Tatizo la msingi la India liko katika utambulisho wake. Je, India ni taifa la Kihindu au taifa la kisekula? Wanasekula ni wachache na wamepinga wanamgambo wa Kihindu waliosababisha ghasia kubwa dhidi ya wachache. Wale walionufaika zaidi na uliberali wa uchumi wa India wamekuwa, kwa kiasi kikubwa, wale wanaoamini kuwa Uhindu haupaswi kuwa na nafasi yoyote katika utawala. Wanahistoria kadhaa wameonyesha kikwazo ambacho Uhindu unaweka katika maendeleo. "Ukali mkubwa wa makatazo ya kidini ya Kihindu ulizuia usasa: panya na wadudu hawakuweza kuuawa, kwa hiyo kiasi kikubwa cha chakula kilipotea; kanuni za kijamii kuhusu kushughulikia taka na kinyesi zilisababisha hali chafu ya kudumu, mazalia ya tauni ya kibubonia. Mfumo wa matabaka ulizuia ubunifu, ulijenga ibada, na kudhibiti soko, na ushawishi ambao makuhani Mabrahmin walikuwa nao kwa watawala wa kienyeji wa India ulimaanisha kwamba ujinga huu ulikuwa na nguvu hata katika ngazi ya juu kabisa."18 Ikiwa India ni taifa la Kihindu lenye Uhindu kama utambulisho wake, basi hili linaimarisha mfumo wa matabaka unaogawa India katika makundi ya kurithiwa. Kwa sasa India ni mchanganyiko wa usekula na Uhindu, jambo linalomaanisha kuwa taifa haliwezi kusonga katika mwelekeo mmoja, na hili ndilo lililosababisha tatizo lake la kujitenga, kwa kuwa Uhindu haumudu kushughulika na watu walio nje ya mfumo huo wa matabaka.

- India's fundamental problem is in its identity. Is India a Hindu nation or a secular nation? Secularists are in the minority and have argued against Hindu nationalists who have led mass riots against minorities. Those who have benefited from India's liberalisation have to a large extent been those who believe Hinduism should have no role in governance. A number of historians have highlighted the obstacle Hinduism places on development. “The sheer rigidity of Hindu religious taboo’s militated against modernisation: rodents and insects could not be killed, so vast amounts of foodstuffs were lost, social mores about handling refuse and excreta led to permanently insanitary conditions, a breeding ground for bubonic plagues. The caste system throttled initiative, instilled ritual and restricted the market and the influence wielded over Indian local rulers by the Brahman priests meant that this obscurantism was effective at the highest level.”18 If India is a Hindu nation with Hinduism its identity, then this institutionalises the caste system which stratifies India into a system of hereditary groups. Currently India is a mixture of secularism and Hinduism which means the nation cannot move in a unified direction and this is what has caused its secessionist problem as Hinduism cannot deal with people outside such a caste system.

- Ili kuwa nguvu ya dunia, taifa linahitaji, miongoni mwa mambo mengi, matarajio ya kimataifa. Taifa linapaswa kuwa na mtindo wa maisha ambao liko tayari kuupeleka kwa ulimwengu mzima. India haina matarajio ya kimataifa. India ilikuwa nguvu ya dunia kuanzia karne ya 11 hadi karne ya 18, lakini ni Uislamu uliofanya India ifikirie kimataifa. India ya leo haina matarajio ya kimataifa. India ina maslahi ya kimkakati, kama upanuzi wa China na vitisho vya Pakistan, lakini maslahi hayo hayatoshi kuifanya India kuwa nguvu kuu. Uhindu unaiangalia India kama nchi ya asili na unatoa mfumo wa tabaka, usio na mfumo jumuishi wa utawala, uchumi, mahusiano ya kigeni na mahakama. Matokeo yake, maslahi ya msingi ya India daima yatatokana na ndani yake - kutoka katika safu isiyoisha na inayobadilika ya maslahi ya ndani, makundi ya kikabila na nguvu mbalimbali.

- To become a word power a nation needs amongst a host of things - global aspirations. A nation would need to posses a way of life that they are prepared to take to the rest of the world. India has no global ambitions. India was a world power from the 11th to the 18th century, but it was Islam that made India think globally. Today's India has no global ambitions. India has strategic interests, such as Chinese expansion and Pakistani threats, but such interests are not sufficient to become a superpower. Hinduism looks upon India as the homeland and offers a caste system, with no integrated system of governance, economy, foreign relations and judiciary, as a result India's fundamental interest will always come from within - from its endless, shifting array of domestic interests, ethnic groups and powers.

- Uhindu hauna sifa za itikadi (ideolojia), na kwa sababu hiyo India inakabiliwa na hatari ya kushindwa kukabiliana na matatizo yake kwa uthabiti. Kuachiliwa kwa uchumi wa India (liberalisation) kumeleta matatizo ya usambazaji wa utajiri, uhaba wa chakula, na upangaji wa vipaumbele vya viwanda. Kila mara India inapotatua tatizo moja, hujitokeza changamoto nyingine nyingi. Ili kukabiliana na masuala kama haya, taifa linahitaji kupitisha itikadi ambayo suluhisho zake zote zinatokana na msingi mmoja, iwe ni za kiuchumi, kijamii, za utawala n.k. Kwa sasa India inatatua matatizo yake kwa sera za kivitendo (pragmatic), na hili litaongeza tu changamoto na matatizo ambayo India italazimika kukabiliana nayo.

- Hinduism lacks the characteristics of an ideology and as a result India faces the prospects of being unable to tackle its problems with any consistency. The liberalisation of India has created issues of wealth distribution, food scarcity, and industrial priority. Every time India solves an issue this creates a host of other challenges, in order to face such issues a nation needs to adopt an ideology where solutions are derived from the same basis, be they economic, social, ruling etc. India currently is solving its issues through pragmatic polices and this will only increase the challenges and issues that India will have to deal with.

Ikiwa India itaamua kuchukua Ubepari kama itikadi yake na kuchukua Usekula kama msingi wake, basi ingawa itaona maendeleo fulani, pia itapata hatima ya mataifa ambayo tayari yamekubali usekula. India tayari inaonyesha dalili za hili. Uzee haukuwahi kuwa tatizo nchini India. Nyumba za wazee zilikuwa dhana ngeni, na unyanyasaji wa wazee ulichukuliwa kuwa tatizo la Magharibi. Sivyo tena. Kadiri muda wa kuishi wa watu unavyoongezeka, nyumba mia kadhaa za wazee zimeibuka nchini India. Kupuuzwa kwa wazazi wa mtu kumegeuka kwa haraka sana kuwa tatizo sugu ambalo serikali ya India ililazimika kulishughulikia. Imejaribu kufanya hivyo kupitia 'Sheria ya Matunzo na Ustawi wa Wazazi na Wananchi Wazee ya 2006.' Sheria hii ilifanya iwe lazima kwa watoto wazima kuwatunza wazazi wao. Utamaduni wa eneo hili umejengwa juu ya kuwaona wazazi kuwa heshima, na kuwapuuza kuwa aibu. Mwaka 1998 kulikuwa na nyumba za wazee 728 nchini India, leo kuna zaidi ya 1000.

If India decides to adopt Capitalism as its ideology and take Secularism as its basis than although it will see some development it will also suffer the fate of nations that have already embraced secularism. India is already showing signs of this. Old age was never a problem in India. Old People homes were alien in concept and elder abuse was considered a Western problem. Not any more. As life expectancy has increased hundreds of Old People homes have sprung up in India. The neglect of ones elders has very quickly turned into an endemic issue that the Indian government was forced to address. It has attempted this through ‘the maintenance and welfare of parents and senior citizens bill 2006.' This made it imperative for adult children to look after their parents. The regions culture is built upon parents being an honour and their neglect, a humiliation. In 1998 there were 728 Old People homes in India, today there are more than 1000.

Wachambuzi wengi huwa na mwelekeo wa kuangalia ukuaji wa uchumi na mwenendo wa idadi ya watu wanapotathmini mataifa yanayoweza kuwa madola makubwa ya dunia. Ingawa viashiria hivyo vinaweza kuashiria matarajio ya baadaye kwa kujitegemea, vinaonyesha kidogo sana kuhusu nguvu ya baadaye.

Many analysts have a tendency to look at economic growth and population trends when assessing potential world powers, whilst such indicators may indicate future prospects on their own they show very little in terms of future power.

Kiashiria halisi cha matarajio ya baadaye si rasilimali za taifa, idadi ya watu wake, teknolojia linayomiliki, wala jiografia yake, ingawa haya yangekuwa faida. Taifa linaloweza kuwa nguvu ya dunia linahitaji kuwa na matarajio ya kimataifa, na matarajio haya nayo yangetokana na mtindo wa maisha ambao watu wa taifa hilo wameukubali.

The real indicator of future prospects is not the resources of a nation, its population size, the technology it posses or geography - although these would be advantages. A potential global power would need to posses global ambitions, this in turn would come from the way of life of a nation the people have embraced.

Picha ya ‘India Shining’ baada ya 1991 si uwakilishi sahihi wala taswira kamili ya nchi ambayo zaidi ya vijiji 100,000 havijawahi kusikia simu ikiita. Ingawa mageuzi ya kiuchumi ya miaka ya 1990 yalisaidia sana kuondoa vikwazo na kuchochea ukuaji, faida ya moja kwa moja ilienda zaidi kwa wakazi wa mijini wenye uwezo wa kifedha. Ingawa India ina changamoto nyingi za kushinda, kama maendeleo yake yasiyo sawa, idadi ya watu bilioni 1.2, ambao ni theluthi moja ya maskini wa dunia, na zaidi ya asilimia 70 ya Wahindi wanaoishi katika maeneo ya vijijini yenye uhitaji, changamoto hizi zinaweza kushindwa, kama mataifa yote yaliyoendelea viwandani yameonyesha. Hata hivyo, kutatua masuala kama haya ni matokeo ya maendeleo, na katikati ya maendeleo kuna dhana rahisi sana ya matarajio ya kimataifa, ambayo India haina. Mfumo wake wa maisha, Uhindu, haubainishi wala kutoa mtazamo wa kimataifa. Ingawa India itatengeneza magari ya kisasa kabisa, kutuma wengi angani, kubuni teknolojia mpya, kufikia kujitegemea na ubora katika nyanja mbalimbali, hili ni jambo linalotafutwa na kila taifa huru, lakini peke yake halitoshi kuifanya kuwa nguvu kuu ya dunia.

The image of an ‘India Shining' post-1991 is not representative or a fully accurate portrayal of a country where over 100,000 villages have never heard a telephone ring. While the economic reforms of the 1990’s did much to liberalise and stimulate growth, the direct beneficiaries were more affluent urban dwellers. Whilst India has many challenges to overcome such as its lopsided development, a 1.2 billion population, who constitute a third of the world’s poor, with over 70% of Indians living in deprived rural areas, these can be overcome as all the industrialised nations have shown. However solving such issues is the product of progress and at the heart of progress lays a very simple concept of global ambitions which India does not possess. Its way of life - Hinduism does not outline or give an international outlook. Whilst India will build state of the art cars, send many into Space, invent new technologies, achieve self sufficiency and superiority in various fields, this is however something sought by every independent nation, but on its own insufficient to become a superpower.