Mwaka 2009 ulikuwa ni maadhimisho ya miaka 60 ya mapinduzi ya China. China ilipata uhuru kutoka kwa Japan na kuwashinda wanamapinduzi wa kitaifa (nationalists) ili kuanzisha Jamhuri ya Watu wa China ya Kisoshalisti. Katika muongo uliopita, wachambuzi wengi wameiona kuinuka kwa China kuwa changamoto kubwa zaidi kwa Marekani, na baadhi ya wanafikra wanaitabiri China kuwa nguvu kuu ya dunia katika siku zisizo za mbali sana. Kuinuka kwa kasi kwa China katika ramani ya kisiasa katika miaka 20 iliyopita kumewashtua wengi, kumewachanganya wengine, na kwa baadhi kunaashiria mabadiliko ya nguvu za dunia kutoka Magharibi kwenda Mashariki. China haijawahi kuwa nguvu ya dunia, na historia yake ya karibuni inajumuisha ukaliaji wa kikatili wa Japan, kumbukumbu ambayo ilibainisha China baada ya Vita vya Pili vya Dunia. Maadhimisho ya miaka 60 ya taifa lenye watu wengi zaidi duniani yanaashiria hali ya kipekee katika historia yake, kwa sababu kwa mara ya kwanza linahesabiwa kuwa nguvu ya dunia.

2009 was the 60th anniversary of the Chinese revolution. China gained independence from Japan and defeated the nationalists to establish the Socialist people’s republic of China. In the last decade many analysts have viewed the rise of China as America's biggest challenge and some thinkers foresee China as the world’s superpower in the not so distant future. The rapid rise of China on the political map in the last 20 years has shocked many, bewildered others and for some marks the shift of global power from West to East. China has never been a world power and its recent history consists of a brutal occupation by Japan, whose memory defined post WW2 China. The 60th anniversary for the world’s most populated nation marks a unique reality in its history as for the first time it is counted as a world power.

Maendeleo ya China yalianza mwaka 1978, na yamekuwa yakitawaliwa na mazingatio ya kijeshi katika maendeleo ya sayansi na teknolojia. Hili linaweza kufuatiliwa hadi enzi za Mao. Mao alitangaza lengo lake la kuunda 'mfumo wa kijeshi' kabla ya mahitaji mengine yote. 'Ujeshi' huu ndio uliounda msingi wa sera ya Deng Xiaoping. Lengo la Deng lilikuwa kuvifanya uchumi wa China kuwa tofauti na mseto, ili msingi wa viwanda vya China uchangie si tu ulinzi wa taifa bali pia ukuaji wa uchumi na ustawi wa raia. Mwongozo wake maarufu wa herufi 16 mwanzoni mwa miaka ya 1980 uliweka hili wazi: 'kuunganisha uzalishaji wa kijeshi na wa kiraia; lakini kuhakikisha kuwa mahitaji ya kijeshi yanasawazishwa; kudumisha uwezo wa kijeshi; kutumia uchumi wa kiraia kuhudumia usasishaji wa kijeshi.' Kabla ya hapo, uchumi wa mpango wa kati wa mtindo wa Kisovieti ulitumika, lakini ulipata matokeo madogo. Kisha Deng alitumia uchumi unaoelekezwa zaidi sokoni, hasa katika Kanda Maalum za Kiuchumi (SEZ) zilizopo Guangdong, Fujian na Hainan. Matokeo yalikuwa ya kustaajabisha. China ilibadilisha uchumi wake kwa kiasi kikubwa, ikitoka kwenye kuuza nje bidhaa rahisi za ubora wa chini hadi kuzalisha bidhaa za teknolojia ya hali ya juu zenye ubora wa kisasa. Nchi imebadilika kutoka uchumi wa ndani uliodumaa hadi kuwa mashine ya kimataifa ya kuuza bidhaa nje, huku mauzo ya China nje yakikua mara kumi. Leo China imeipita Ujerumani kama nchi inayouza bidhaa nje zaidi duniani, ikiuza nje zaidi ya dola trilioni 1 kwa mwaka.

China's development began in 1978 and has been due to military considerations dominating the development of science and technology. This can be traced back to the Mao era. Mao stated his objective of forming a ‘militarization’ complex above all other needs. This ‘militarization’ formed the basis of Deng Xao Ping’s policy. Deng's aim was to diversify the Chinese economy in order for China's industrial base to contribute not just to national defence but also economic growth and civilian prosperity. Deng's famous 16 character guidance in early 1980’s made this clear: ‘integrating military and civilian production; but making sure to balance the military requirements; maintaining military capability; using the civilian economy to serve military modernization.’6 Prior to this the Soviet-style centrally planned economy, was utilized but achieved limited results. Deng then utilized a more market-oriented economy, particularly in the Special Economic Zones (SEZ) located in the Guangdong, Fujian, and Hainan. The results were spectacular. China radically changed its economy moving from producing low quality simple exports to sophisticated high technology goods. The country has changed from an inward backward economy to a global exporting machine, Chinese exports have grown tenfold. Today China has surpassed Germany as the world’s largest exporter, exporting over $1 trillion a year.

Tangu mwaka 1978, China imekuwa ikifanya mageuzi ya uchumi wake kutoka uchumi wa mipango kuu wa aina ya Kisovieti kuelekea uchumi unaozingatia zaidi soko, lakini ndani ya mfumo wa kisiasa unaotolewa na Chama cha Kikomunisti cha China. Mfumo huu umeitwa "Ujamaa wenye sifa za Kichina" na ni aina moja ya uchumi mchanganyiko. Mageuzi haya yaliyoanza mwaka 1978 yamesaidia kuwatoa mamilioni ya watu katika umaskini, na kushusha kiwango cha umaskini kutoka asilimia 53 ya idadi ya watu mwaka 1981 hadi asilimia 8 kufikia mwaka 2001.

Since 1978, China has been reforming its economy from a Soviet-style centrally planned economy to a more market-oriented economy but within the political framework, provided by the Communist Party of China. This system has been called “Socialism with Chinese characteristics” and is one type of mixed economy. These reforms started since 1978 has helped lift millions of people out of poverty, bringing the poverty rate down from 53% of population in 1981 to 8% by 2001.

Utekelezaji wa sera ya mambo ya nje ya China unawakilisha mabadiliko muhimu kutoka mbinu finyu na ya kujibu matukio ya Beijing katika masuala ya dunia zamani. China inaachana na mtazamo wake wa muda mrefu wa kuwa mhanga wa miaka 150 ya aibu na udhalilishaji, na badala yake inakumbatia mtazamo wa taifa kubwa (daguo xintai). Matokeo ya asili ya hili ni ongezeko la nafasi ya China katika masuala ya kimataifa. Jambo hili limechochewa na viongozi wakuu wa Chama cha Kikomunisti ambao hawakuzaliwa wakati wa mapinduzi ya China, na hivyo hawaiangalii dunia kwa mtazamo wa historia ya China. Viongozi kama rais wa sasa Hu Jintao, aliyezaliwa miaka michache tu kabla ya mapinduzi, ndiye kiongozi wa kwanza wa China ambaye hakushiriki katika Long March maarufu, ambapo wanamapinduzi wa kitaifa walishindwa mwaka 1949. Ni viongozi kama hawa wanaoamini katika kuachana na mtazamo wa China wa kuwa mhanga na kukumbatia mtazamo wa taifa kubwa; ni viongozi kama hawa wanaoiona China zaidi na zaidi kama sawa na mataifa makubwa ya dunia.

The execution of China's foreign policy represents an important evolution from Beijing's narrow and reactive approach to global affairs in the past. China is abandoning its long-held victim mentality of 150 years of shame and humiliation and adopting instead a great power mentality (daguo xintai). The natural extension of this is the increasing role of China in global issues. This has been driven by leading members of the Communist party who were not born during the Chinese revolution and hence do not view the world from the perspective of China's history. Leaders, such as the current president Hu Jintao, who was born only a few years before the revolution, was China's first leader not to have taken part in the infamous long march, where the nationalists were defeated in 1949. It is such leaders who believe in the abandonment of China's victim mentality and the adoption of a great power mentality, it is such leaders who are increasingly seeing China more akin to the world’s major powers.

Maafisa wa sera za Marekani walieleza mkakati wao kuhusu China kwa mara ya kwanza katika Mwongozo wa Upangaji wa Ulinzi (DPG) kwa miaka ya fedha 1994-99, ambao ulikuwa taarifa rasmi ya kwanza ya malengo ya kimkakati ya Marekani katika enzi ya baada ya Umoja wa Kisovieti: "[tunapaswa] kujitahidi kuzuia nguvu yoyote yenye uadui isitawale eneo ambalo rasilimali zake, zikiwa chini ya udhibiti mmoja, zingetosha kuzalisha nguvu ya kidunia."7 Kufikia wakati George W Bush alipoingia madarakani, China pekee ndiyo ilikuwa na uwezo wa kiuchumi na kijeshi wa kuipinga Marekani kama nguvu kuu inayotamani kuwa kubwa zaidi. Marekani ilibuni sera ya kudhibiti (containment) badala ya ushindani wa moja kwa moja na China; sera hiyo ingetumia rasilimali za Marekani kuizuia China ndani ya mipaka yake, kuhakikisha kwamba hakuna mtu mwingine anayeshiriki eneo hilo nayo. Sera hii ya kudhibiti ilifafanuliwa na Condoleezza Rice alipokuwa mshauri wa sera za nje wa George W Bush, wakati huo gavana wa jimbo la Texas, wakati wa kampeni ya urais ya mwaka 2000. Katika makala ya jarida la Foreign Affairs, alisema: "China ni nguvu kubwa yenye maslahi muhimu yasiyotatuliwa, hasa kuhusu Taiwan; China pia inachukizwa na nafasi ya Marekani katika eneo la Asia-Pasifiki." Kwa sababu hizo, alisema, "China si nchi inayotaka kudumisha hali iliyopo, bali ni nchi inayotaka kubadilisha mizani ya nguvu ya Asia kwa manufaa yake. Hilo peke yake linaifanya kuwa mshindani wa kimkakati, si 'mshirika wa kimkakati' ambao utawala wa Clinton uliwahi kuuita. Marekani lazima iimarishe ushirikiano wake na Japan na Korea Kusini na kudumisha dhamira yake ya kuwa na uwepo imara wa kijeshi katika eneo hilo." Washington pia inapaswa "kuzingatia kwa makini zaidi nafasi ya India katika mizani ya kikanda, na kuiingiza nchi hiyo katika mfumo wa muungano wa kupinga China."8

US policy makers spelled out their strategy for China initially in the Defence Planning Guidance (DPG) for fiscal years 1994-99, the first formal statement of US strategic goals in the post-Soviet era "we [must] endeavour to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power."7 By the time George W Bush came to office only China possessed the economic and military capacity to challenge the United States as an aspiring superpower. The US developed a policy of containment rather than outright competition with China which would expend US resources, to restrain China within its borders ensuring no-one shares the region with her. This policy of containment was spelt out by Condoleezza Rice while serving as a foreign-policy adviser to George W Bush, then governor of the state of Texas, during the 2000 presidential campaign in a Foreign Affairs article she stated "China is a great power with unresolved vital interests, particularly concerning Taiwan, China also resents the role of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region." For these reasons, she stated, "China is not a ‘status quo' power but one that would like to alter Asia's balance of power in its own favour. That alone makes it a strategic competitor, not the 'strategic partner' the Clinton administration once called it. The United States must deepen its cooperation with Japan and South Korea and maintain its commitment to a robust military presence in the region". Washington should also "pay closer attention to India's role in the regional balance, and bring that country into an anti-Chinese alliance system."8

Kwa upande mwingine, wale wanaoona kuinuka kwa China kama tishio wamesukuma utawala wa Marekani kuunda pete ya kupinga China kuizuia. Marekani imeimarisha mahusiano ya usalama na Japan na kuunga mkono wito wa Japan wa kuendeleza silaha za nyuklia, jambo ambalo lingemaanisha kuachana na sera ya ulinzi ya kikatiba iliyodumu kwa miongo kadhaa; kwa Marekani, hili lingetumika kama uzito wa kijeshi wa kupinga upande wa Mashariki wa China. Upande wa Magharibi wa China, India imevutiwa kwa mikataba ya kiuchumi, uhamishaji wa teknolojia ya nyuklia na matarajio ya kupata hadhi ya kudumu katika Baraza la Usalama. Kwa namna kama hiyo, Marekani imerekebisha mahusiano yake na Vietnam, ikazika mgogoro wake wa kihistoria na kuunda ushirikiano wa pande mbili nayo. Marekani imefanikiwa kuwashawishi Wavietnam kuongeza mwingiliano nayo, na kuvunja viungo vya muda mrefu vya China na eneo la Pasifiki. Vietnam bado ina mgogoro wa eneo kwenye mpaka wake wa Kaskazini na China. Marekani pia imetumia mzozo wake na Korea Kaskazini kuidhibiti China. Marekani imekuwa kimya sana kuhusu maendeleo ya nyuklia ya Pyongyang ikilinganishwa na Iran, wakati China imekuwa ikifuatilia mazungumzo ya vyama sita ili kuhakikisha mlango wake wa nyuma hauwaki moto. Matamko kutoka kwenye mikutano hiyo yamekuwa yanapingana, ambapo China imekuwa ikitoa maoni ya kukata tamaa kuhusu mazungumzo na kutofautiana na Marekani kwenye masuala fulani, huku Marekani ikitangaza kufanikiwa kwa mazungumzo. Hili linatoa sababu inayofaa kwa uwepo endelevu na mkubwa wa Marekani nchini Korea Kusini. Marekani pia ilitangaza mnamo Septemba 2009 mabadiliko ya sera kuelekea Myanmar (Burma). Inapanga kuenda zaidi ya utaratibu wa sasa wa vikwazo na kujumuisha mazungumzo ya moja kwa moja na serikali ya kijeshi. Myanmar inacheza nafasi kuu katika mkakati wa nishati wa China nje ya nchi, na kupitia mazungumzo ya moja kwa moja Marekani inajaribu kupunguza upanuzi wa eneo la ushawishi la China barani Asia.

On the other hand those who view China's rise as a threat have pushed for the US administration to develop an anti-Chinese ring around China to contain it. The US has upgraded security relations with Japan and has supported Japanese calls for nuclear development, this would mean abandoning the decades old constitutional defensive policy; for the US this would act as a military counter weight on China’s Eastern flank. On the Western flank India has been wooed with economic deals, the transfer of nuclear technology and ambitions of permanent Security Council status. The US in a similar manner has normalised relations with Vietnam burying its historical conflict and forming bilateral partnerships with it. The US has successfully manoeuvred the Vietnamese to increase interaction with it, breaking the age old Chinese links to the pacific region. Vietnam continues to have a territorial dispute on its northern border with China. The US has also used its conflict with North Korea to contain China. The US has been considerably silent to the nuclear progress in Pyongyang compared to Iran, whilst China has been pursuing six party talks trying to ensure its back door is not set on fire. The statements from such meetings have been contradictory where China has been remarking pessimistic talks with distance on issues to the US remarking successful negotiations. This gives a suitable justification for sustained and substantial US presence in South Korea. The US has also announced in September 2009 a shift in policy towards Myanmar (Burma). It plans to move beyond the current sanctions regime to include direct engagement with the military government. Myanmar is playing a central role in China's overseas energy strategy and through direct engagement the US is attempting to minimise the expansion of a Chinese sphere of influence in Asia.

Katika historia ya miaka 5000 ya China, taifa hilo halijawahi kuwa nguvu kuu, wala halijawahi kuathiri usawa wa nguvu duniani. Hata lilipopitisha Ukomunisti, halikuupeleka nje ya mipaka yake, wala halikuathiri maeneo yoyote ya dunia. Sehemu kubwa ya historia ya miaka 5000 ya China imejengwa na vita na mapambano ya ndani ili kuunganisha nchi yao. Sera ya mambo ya nje ya China imejikita katika maendeleo ya uchumi wa ndani na kupata malighafi zote muhimu ili kufikia malengo hayo. China imepinga sera ya kudhibiti ya Marekani kwa kujaribu kudhoofisha mataifa ambayo Marekani inajaribu kuyatumia kuidhibiti China. Inafanya hivyo kwa kutumia biashara na kujenga uhusiano wa pande mbili ili kulegeza uhusiano wa Marekani na nchi kama Australia, India, Japan na Korea Kusini.

In China’s 5000 year history it has never been a superpower and has never influenced the global balance of power. Even when it adopted Communism it never carried this beyond its borders and never influenced any of the regions of the world. Much of China's 5000 year history is composed of internal wars and struggles in order to unify the homeland. China’s foreign policy is centred on domestic economic development and procuring all the necessary raw materials to achieve such aims. China has challenged America’s containment policy by attempting to weaken the nations the US is attempting to use to contain China. This is through using trade and developing bilateral ties to loosen US relations with the likes of Australia, India, Japan and South Korea.

Kutokana na ukweli huu, China imejikita katika kanda yake na hadi sasa haijaonyesha azma kubwa nje ya kanda hiyo. Sera ya "String of Pearls" ya China ndiyo jaribio lake la kwanza la kupanua ushawishi nje ya kanda hiyo. Sera hiyo imeelezwa na serikali ya Marekani kama ifuatavyo: "“String of Pearls” inaeleza udhihirisho wa ushawishi wa kijiografia unaoongezeka wa China kupitia juhudi za kuongeza upatikanaji wa bandari na viwanja vya ndege, kuendeleza uhusiano maalum wa kidiplomasia, na kuboresha vikosi vya kijeshi, vinavyoenea kutoka Bahari ya China Kusini hadi Mlango-Bahari wa Malacca, kuvuka Bahari ya Hindi, na kufika Ghuba ya Uajemi." Njia za baharini zinapita kwenye vituo vya kimkakati vya Mlango-Bahari wa Mandab, Mlango-Bahari wa Malacca, Mlango-Bahari wa Hormuz na Mlango-Bahari wa Lombok, pamoja na maslahi mengine ya kimkakati ya majini kando ya Pakistani, Sri Lanka, Maldives na Somalia. Yote haya ni njia muhimu za kimkakati za mafuta na gesi, na bila shaka yatasababisha mgongano na Marekani.

Due to this reality China has focussed on its region and as of yet has shown little ambition beyond the region. China’s string of pearls policy is its first venture beyond the region. The policy was described by the US government as follows: “The “String of Pearls” describes the manifestation of China’s rising geopolitical influence through efforts to increase access to ports and airfields, develop special diplomatic relationships, and modernize military forces that extend from the South China Sea through the Strait of Malacca, across the Indian Ocean, and on to the Persian Gulf.”10 The sea lines run through the strategic choke points of Strait of Mandab, Strait of Malacca, Strait of Hormuz and Strait of Lombok as well as other strategic naval interests along Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Somalia. All of these are key strategic routes for oil and gas and will inevitably lead to a clash with the US.

Kwa karne nyingi, China imejaribu kuunganisha taifa kubwa lenye tamaduni na makabila mengi, licha ya vipindi vya kuimarishwa kwa madaraka ya kisiasa na vipindi vya mgawanyiko. Lakini tofauti za kitamaduni na kilugha zimezidi kuwa mbaya kutokana na ukuaji usio sawa na mgawanyo mkubwa usio wa haki wa utajiri. Unyanyasaji wa kimwili, kufungwa jela, sheria dhaifu za kazi na mishahara midogo ya kusikitisha, pamoja na kile kinachoonekana kuwa kushindwa kwa serikali ya China kushughulikia mahitaji ya kiuchumi ya sehemu kubwa ya wananchi, vinasababisha migogoro ya ndani na wito wa mabadiliko ya kisiasa. Mwaka 2005, China ilishughulikia kesi 87,00012 za machafuko ya kijamii; hizi ni pamoja na vurugu za umma, maandamano na mizozo ya kiraia. Ndani ya nchi, China ni bomu linaloweza kulipuka wakati wowote.

For centuries, China has attempted to hold together a vast multi-cultural and multi-ethnic nation despite periods of political centralization and fragmentation. But cultural and linguistic differences have worsened due to uneven growth and a massive misdistribution of wealth. Physical mistreatment, imprisonment, lax labour laws and pitiful pay and the fact that the Chinese government is seen not to have addressed the economic needs of the vast bulk of the population is causing internal strife and calls for political succession. In 2005 China handled 87,00012 cases of social unrest; this is public disturbances, demonstrations and civil strife. Domestically China is a bomb that could go off at any time.

China ndani inatawaliwa na Ukomunisti, ndiyo sababu bado ina mfumo wa chama kimoja, lakini kiuchumi inazidi kusogea kuelekea soko huria. Wakati huo huo, China inaongozwa na utaifa, jambo ambalo limesababisha wito wa kutengwa kutoka kwa baadhi ya mikoa. Hadi China itakapoamua utambulisho wake wa kitaifa ni upi, taifa litaendelea kuvutwa pande tofauti, na China haitaweza kamwe kuleta tishio kwa nguvu kuu ya dunia. Kulazimishwa kwa Wahan wa kabila la Han juu ya makabila mengine kunachangia tatizo hilo zaidi. Iwapo Marekani ingehisi kuwa China inaleta tishio la haraka kwa maslahi yake, ingeweza kwa urahisi mkubwa kuunga mkono mojawapo ya makundi madogo na kusababisha matatizo ya ndani kwa China.

China domestically is ruled by Communism, this is why it still has a one party system, but economically it is moving more and more towards the free market. At the same time China is nationalist led which has led to calls for separation by some regions. Until China decides what its national identity is, the nation will continue to be pulled in different directions and China will never be able to pose a threat to the world's superpower. The imposition of the ethnic Hans over the other ethnicities only contributes towards the problem. If the US felt China poses an immediate threat to its interests it could with much ease support one of the minority groups and cause internal problems for China.

China kwa sasa inaleta changamoto ya kiuchumi kwa Marekani, na kwa sababu hizo inajihusisha na mizozo kadhaa ya kibiashara. Marekani imeweka vizuizi kwa uagizaji wa matairi kutoka China, na kwa sasa China ndiyo inayolengwa na kesi kadhaa katika Shirika la Biashara Duniani (WTO) kuhusu mazoea ya kupinga ushindani wa haki.

China currently posses an economic challenge to the US, for these reasons they are engaged in a number of trade disputes. The US has placed restrictions on Chinese tyre imports, and currently China is on the receiving end of a number of World Trade Organisation (WTO) cases into anti-competitive practices.

Kwa Marekani, China inaleta tishio katika Asia ya Kusini-Mashariki, na hivyo Marekani inataka kuzuia matarajio ya kisiasa ya China yanayoweza kutokea, lakini wakati huo huo inataka kunufaika na soko la ndani la watu bilioni 1.4. Makadirio ya kijasusi ya Shirika Kuu la Ujasusi la Marekani na mapitio ya kila miaka minne ya ulinzi yanaendelea kupendekeza kwamba Marekani iongeze matumizi ya kijeshi kukabiliana na vitisho vya China. China kama tishio kwa Marekani inatiliwa chumvi kupita kiasi, wakati kwa sasa China imejizuia maslahi na matarajio yake katika kanda yake tu. Ni jambo lenye shaka kama taifa ambalo halijawahi kuwa nguvu ya dunia, ambalo halijawahi kupanuka nje ya mipaka yake, hata lina matarajio ya kimataifa. China iko katika nafasi imara ya kuhamisha uchumi wake kutoka kulenga nje kwenda kwenye maendeleo ya ndani, na ukubwa wa idadi ya watu wake ungetatua tatizo lake la kiuchumi.

For the US China posses a threat in South East Asia and hence the US wants to restrict potential Chinese political ambitions but at the same time wants to benefit from the 1.4 billion domestic market. US central intelligence estimates and quadrennial reviews constantly propose the US to increase military expenditure in the face of Chinese threats. China as a threat to the US is overblown when China has for the moment restricted its interests and ambitions to its region – it is questionable whether a nation that has never been a world power, who never expanded beyond its borders, even has global ambitions. China is in a strong position to shift its economy from external focus to domestic development, the size of its population would solve its economic dilemma.

Kwa sasa China inaleta changamoto ya kiuchumi kwa Marekani, kwa hiyo haiwezekani kwamba China itachukua nafasi ya Marekani kama nguvu kuu ya dunia katika siku za karibuni.

Currently China poses an economic challenge to the US, therefore it is unlikely China will be replacing the US as the worlds superpower any time soon.