2. Me Ya Faru?
2. What Went Wrong?
Kayan Aikin Kuɗi na Jari-hujja: Gidan Katin Wasa
Capitalism’s Financial Instruments: A House of Cards
Watar kila, babu abin da ke nuna matsanancin ɓarnar tsarin jari-hujja da ya fita daga iko fiye da kasuwar hada-hadar "derivatives". Warren Buffett, ɗaya daga cikin attajirai kuma masu saka jari mafi shahara a duniya, kuma shugaban asusun saka jari na Berkshire Hathaway mai darajar dala biliyan 196, ya bayyana derivatives da "makamai masu lalata kuɗi a duniya" (financial weapons of mass destruction). A cikin rahoton shekara-shekara da Berkshire Hathaway ya miƙa wa masu hannun jari a shekarar 2002, ya ce: "Sai dai in an tabbatar da yarjejeniyoyin derivatives da kadara ko tabbaci, darajarsu ta ƙarshe tana dogara ne da amincin waɗanda ke ɓangaren ɗaya na yarjejeniyar. A halin yanzu kuwa, kafin a kammala yarjejeniyar, ɓangarorin suna rubuta riba da asara, sau da yawa manya ne, a cikin rahotannin ribar su na yanzu, ba tare da an canja ko sisi ɗaya ba. Iyakar nau'in yarjejeniyoyin derivatives tana iyakance ne kawai da tunanin ɗan adam (ko wani lokaci, kamar yadda ake gani, na mahaukata)." Buffett ya yi wannan magana ne bisa ƙwarewar kansa, domin ya sayi wani ƙaramin kamfanin inshora na Amurka wanda yana da jerin derivatives a littattafansa. Bayan ya nuna shakku game da yadda aka ƙididdige darajarsa fiye da kima, sai ya umarci a sayar da dukkan kadarorin wannan jerin. Bayan asarar dala miliyoyi da kuma tafiya ta cikin fiye da abokan hulɗa 670 na yarjejeniya (cibiyar da ke ɗaya gefen ciniki), an kammala aikin.
Perhaps nothing characterises better the excesses of a capitalist system out of control than the Derivatives market. Warren Buffett one of the wealthiest investors in the world and doyen of Berkshire Hathaway’s $196 billion investment fund famously described derivatives as “financial weapons of mass destruction”. In Berkshire Hathaway's annual report to shareholders in 2002, he said, “Unless derivatives contracts are collateralized or guaranteed, their ultimate value also depends on the creditworthiness of the counterparties to them. In the meantime, though, before a contract is settled, the counterparties record profits and losses - often huge in amount - in their current earnings statements without so much as a penny changing hands. The range of derivatives contracts is limited only by the imagination of man (or sometimes, so it seems, madmen)”. Buffett was speaking from first hand experience having bought a small US Insurance company which had a derivatives portfolio on its books. After expressing scepticism over its seemingly inflated valuation, Buffett ordered the portfolio to be liquidated. After several million dollars of losses and wading through over 670 counterparty (the institution on the other side of the transaction) relationships the job was done.
Kasuwar kayayyakin hada-hadar kuɗi da ake kira "derivatives" ta bunkasa kusan kamar yadda ake lissafin ci gaban lissafi cikin shekaru 10 da suka gabata, kuma yanzu ana kiyasin girmanta tsakanin dala tiriliyan 500 zuwa dala tiriliyan 1,000 (kwadiriliyan daya). Wannan adadi ya fi girman tattalin arzikin "na zahiri" a duniya, wanda ake kiyasin ya kai dala tiriliyan 50. Yawancin kasuwar derivatives ba a sa mata ka'idoji ba, kuma tana da sifar kasuwar OTC (over the counter), wadda ainihin masu yin kwangilar ce ke tafiyar da ita, galibi bankuna, kamfanonin saka hannun jari, asusun hedge fund da abokan cinikinsu, wadanda sun hada da hukumomin birni, majalisun gundumomi, asusun fansho da attajirai. Bisa ga bayanin Bankin Daidaita Harkokin Kuɗi na Duniya (Bank for International Settlements), zuwa watan Disamba na shekarar 2007, kasuwar OTC ta kai dala tiriliyan 596 a darajar ma'aunin kwangiloli (notional value). Derivatives a takaice kayan hada-hadar kuɗi ne wadanda darajarsu ta dogara ga darajar kayan hada-hadar kuɗi da ke tushensu. Su kwangiloli ne da ke dogara ga aikin kadarori ko motsin farashinsu, ba ga ainihin mu'amala da kadarorin kansu ba. Kadarorin sun hada da kayayyakin masarufi (commodities), hannayen jari (equities), jinginar gidaje (mortgages), lamunin gidaje, bonds, adadin ruwa (interest rates), canjin kuɗi (exchange rates), da ma'auni (indices) kamar ma'aunin kasuwar hannayen jari da ma'aunin farashin kayayyaki ga masu saye (consumer price index), da sauransu. Derivatives sun hada da futures, forwards, options da swaps.
The derivatives market has grown almost exponentially over the past 10 years and is now estimated at between $500 trillion and $1,000 trillion (a quadrillion) in size. A level that dwarfs the “real” economy which is estimated at $50 trillion worldwide. Most of the derivatives market is un-regulated and is characterised by the OTC (over the counter) market which is effectively managed by contracting parties to the transactions, mostly banks, investment firms, hedge funds and their customers which include municipal bodies, councils, pension funds and wealthy individuals. According to the Bank for International Settlements as of December 2007 the OTC market was worth $596 trillion in notional value. Derivatives are in essence financial instruments whose value depends on the value of underlying financial instruments. They are contracts which depend on the performance or movement in prices of assets rather than transactions involving the actual assets themselves, and include commodities, equities, mortgages, real estate loans, bonds, interest rates, exchange rates, or indices (stock market indexes, consumer price index, etc.). Derivatives include futures, forwards, options and swaps.
Babbar amfanin da aka fi yada game da hada-hadar derivatives shi ne rage hadari. Amma a zahiri, saboda yanayin derivatives da aka kirkira da kuma rabuwarsu daga harkokin gaske, girman yawansu, da kuma yadda cibiyoyi da dama ke rike da su ta hanyar dangantaka mai sarkakiya tsakanin abokan ciniki, yana da wuya a tabbatar ko suna cimma wani abu banda kasancewa wata hanya mai tsari sosai ta caca a sikeli mai hadari matuka. Domin kara bayyana cikakken bayani game da wadannan ma'amaloli, an gabatar da nau'o'i uku masu shahara na derivatives, wato CDOs, Credit Default Swaps da Currency Swaps, a cikin Ƙarin Bayani na wannan takarda.
The main publicised use for derivatives is to reduce risk. But in fact due to the nature of the derivatives developed and their disconnect from the real world, their sheer scale, and the fact that they are held by such a multitude of institutions via complex counterparty relations, it is questionable as to whether they are achieving anything other than a highly tuned means to gamble on a simply catastrophic scale. To amplify on to the detail of these transactions three popular forms of derivatives; CDOs, Credit Default Swaps and Currency Swaps are presented in the Appendix of this paper.