Dubai imetangazwa kuwa mfano wa mafanikio ya kiuchumi na mtindo mpya wa maendeleo ya kiuchumi kwa ulimwengu wa Kiislamu. Dubai, pamoja na uchumi wake wa dola bilioni 46, imevutia umakini wa dunia nzima kupitia miradi bunifu ya majengo na matukio ya michezo ndani ya kipindi kifupi cha muda. Wachumi wengi wamesisitiza kwamba hatua ya Dubai ya kujitenga na utegemezi wa mafuta imeiweka katika njia ya maendeleo inayowasilisha fomula mpya ya maendeleo ya kiuchumi kwa eneo hilo, pamoja na mbinu ya kipekee ya Kiislamu katika maendeleo ya kiuchumi.

Dubai has been heralded as an economic success story and a new model for economic development for the Muslim world. Dubai with its $46 billion economy has attracted world-wide attention through innovative real estate projects and sports events in a relatively short period of time. Many economists have emphasized that Dubai’s diversification away from oil has placed it upon a path of development which presents a new formula for economic development for the region and a distinctly Islamic approach to economic development.

Mapato ya mafuta baada ya Vita ya Ghuba ya Uajemi yaliihimiza Dubai kuelekeza nguvu zake kwenye biashara huru na utalii. Mafanikio ya eneo huru la biashara la Jebel Ali yaliiwezesha jiji hilo kuiga muundo wake ili kuendeleza makundi ya maeneo mapya huru ya biashara, yakiwemo Dubai Internet City, Dubai Media City na Dubai Maritime City. Ujenzi wa Burj Al Arab, hoteli ndefu zaidi duniani isiyoegemezwa kwenye kitu chochote, pamoja na kuanzishwa kwa miradi mipya ya makazi, vilitumika kuitangaza Dubai kwa madhumuni ya utalii. Tangu mwaka 2002, jiji hilo limeshuhudia ongezeko la uwekezaji wa mali isiyohamishika wa kibinafsi katika kuunda upya anga ya Dubai kupitia miradi kama vile The Palm Islands, The World Islands na Burj Dubai. Kwa kifupi, kipimo cha mafanikio ya Dubai kimekuwa katika miradi kama majengo marefu na maduka makubwa ya kibiashara.

Oil revenues after the Persian Gulf War encouraged Dubai to focus on free trade and tourism. The success of the Jebel Ali free zone allowed the city to replicate its model to develop clusters of new free zones, including Dubai Internet City, Dubai Media City and Dubai Maritime City. The constructions of Burj Al Arab, the world’s tallest freestanding hotel, as well as the creation of new residential developments, were used to market Dubai for purposes of tourism. Since 2002, the city has seen an increase in private real estate investment in recreating Dubai’s skyline with such projects as The Palm Islands, The World Islands and Burj Dubai. In essence the measure of success of Dubai has been on developments such as skyscrapers and vast shopping malls.

Kwa sababu hii, Dubai ni ya kipekee miongoni mwa ulimwengu wa Kiislamu kwa kuwa imeshuhudia maendeleo ya ajabu katika miaka 20 iliyopita. Leo ni jiji la kisasa, lenye utajiri mwingi unaoonekana katika mfumo wa majengo marefu na miradi ya kipekee. Ni jiji ambalo si Waislamu kutoka nchi za Kiislamu tu wanaolielekea kwa idadi kubwa, bali pia watu wa kila aina kutoka kila pembe ya dunia. Dubai inatoa maisha ya kimagharibi yenye ladha ya Mashariki kwa kila mtu. Wakazi wenyeji ni wachache; asilimia 85 ya wakazi wa Dubai ni wageni wanaoishi nje ya nchi yao. Kwa wengi hili lingechukuliwa kuwa hadithi ya mafanikio, kwani Dubai imevutia dunia kuja katika kisiwa chake kidogo, lakini ndani ya mafanikio haya yanayoonekana kuna udanganyifu wa maendeleo ya kiuchumi.

Due to this, Dubai is unique amongst the Muslim world in that it has witnessed phenomenal development over the last 20 years. It is today a modern city, with much wealth on display in the form of tall buildings and unique developments. It is a city that not only Muslims from Islamic countries head towards in large numbers, but people of all kinds from all over the world. Dubai offers a western lifestyle with an Eastern flavour for all. The native population is a minority, 85% of Dubai’s population is composed of expatriates. For many this would be considered a success story as Dubai has attracted the world to its tiny island, but in this apparent success lays the myth of economic development.

Dubai imebarikiwa kuwa na mafuta mengi, ambayo mapato yake yamewezesha jiji la kisasa kukua kutoka kijiji kidogo cha wavuvi kilichokuwepo zamani. Katika miaka ya hivi karibuni Dubai pia imeelekeza uchumi wake kwenye sekta za utalii na huduma. Hali hii imeifanya Dubai kuwa kitovu cha utalii si tu katika Mashariki ya Kati, bali duniani kote. Pia inatamani kuwa kituo cha fedha kitakachoshindana na miji kama London na New York.

Dubai has been blessed with a vast amount of oil, the revenues of which have allowed a modern city to develop out of a once small fishing village. In recent years Dubai has also taken to orienting its economy towards the tourism and service sectors. This has led to Dubai becoming a hub of tourism in not only the Middle East but the world. It is also aspiring to become a financial centre to rival the likes of London and New York.

Tatizo la Dubai ni kwamba si mfano wa kufuatwa na wengine, bali ni kisa cha kipekee cha maendeleo. Imeendelea kwa namna ambayo kwa kweli inaishi ndani ya bubu la kiuchumi.

The problem with Dubai is that it’s not a model for others to follow, but a unique case of development. It has developed in such a manner that it is in fact existing in an economic bubble.

Nguvu inayoendesha ukuaji wa Dubai imekuwa hasa utajiri wake wa mafuta, ikifuatiwa na kampuni zinazoendeshwa na wafanyakazi wa kigeni. Nafasi yake kama kitovu cha biashara pia imeleta utajiri kwake. Tatizo la hali hii ni kwamba mafuta si ya kudumu bila kikomo, na tayari yanaelekea kuisha. Wafanyakazi wenye ujuzi wanaosaidia kuendeleza sekta ya huduma wengi wao wanatoka nje ya nchi, na sehemu ndogo tu ya wakazi wa Dubai sasa wanachukuliwa kuwa Waarabu wazawa.

The driving force behind Dubai’s growth has been largely its oil wealth, followed by companies that are run by foreign workers. Its position as a trading hub has also brought it wealth. The problem with this is that the oil is not unlimited, and is already running out. The skilled workers that are helping to develop the service sector are mostly from overseas, with only a tiny part of Dubai’s population now considered to be native Arabs.

Mambo haya yanaonyesha kwa nini Dubai si mfano wa maendeleo halisi ya kiuchumi. Imetumia tu rasilimali chache za asili na imekuwa ikiajiri wataalamu kutoka nje wenye ujuzi mdogo, bila kuhamisha ujuzi na maarifa, ili kuendesha uchumi wake. Aidha, Dubai haitengenezi bidhaa zozote za viwandani ambazo wakazi wa jiji hilo wanazinunua. Ni taifa lisilojitosheleza, kwani halina miundombinu wala rasilimali asilia zinazohitajika ili kuzalisha bidhaa wanazotumia.

These factors show why Dubai is not an example of true economic development. It has merely exploited limited natural resources and has been importing talent from abroad with little skills and knowledge transfer to drive its economy. This is coupled with the fact that Dubai does not produce any manufactured products that the people in the city buy. It is a nation that is not self-sufficient, as it does not have the infrastructure or natural resources in place to develop the products it consumes.

Ukuaji wake umetokana moja kwa moja na kugeuka kuwa eneo lisilotozwa kodi kwa raia wa kigeni na kampuni za kigeni. Kampuni hizi, ingawa zinatoa ajira na mapato kwa watu wa nchi hiyo, hazihamishi ujuzi wowote wa kiufundi kwa wananchi. Bei za mali isiyohamishika zinapanda kwa kiasi kikubwa kutokana na uvumi kwamba bei zitaendelea kupanda, na faida inaweza kupatikana kwa kuuza mali hiyo baadaye.

Its growth has been a direct result of it becoming an essentially tax free zone for foreign nationals and companies. These companies, whilst providing jobs and income to people in the country, are not transferring any technical skills to the people. Its real estate prices are rising in large part due to speculation that the prices will continue to rise, and a profit can be made from selling the property on.

Dubai imejijenga kama uchumi unaotegemea huduma, ambapo serikali itatoa huduma zote muhimu kama miundombinu, mawasiliano, vyumba vya kupangisha vya muda mfupi, bustani, maduka ya rejareja na utalii, ili kampuni za dunia nzima ziweze kufanya kazi kutoka hapo. Tatizo la aina hii ya maendeleo ni kwamba kampuni si lazima ziendeshe shughuli zake kutoka eneo moja pekee; zinaweza kuhamia pale inapohitajika, na kutokuwa na utulivu kwa kawaida huzisukuma kufanya hivyo. Maendeleo ya namna hii yanaifanya nchi kutegemea wageni wanaotaka kuendelea kufanya kazi kutoka Dubai. Kwa kuwa Mashariki ya Kati ni eneo lenye kutokuwa na utulivu zaidi duniani, na kwa kuwa kuna uwezekano wa vita, hali hii inaweza kusababisha kampuni hizo kuondoka wakati wowote.

Dubai has modelled itself as a service based economy where the government will provide all the necessary services such as infrastructure, communications, flash apartments, parks, retail outlets and tourism for the worlds companies to operate from. The problem with this type of development is companies do not necessarily need to operate from only one location, they can move around if needed and any instability will usually lead to this. Such a development makes the nation reliant on foreigners to continually want to work from Dubai. With the Middle East being the most unstable region in the world and prospects of war this could lead to a departure of such companies at any time.

Sababu hizi zinaonyesha kwamba Dubai si kitu zaidi ya mwonekano wa kudanganya jangwani. Ukuaji wake na uhai wake vinategemea kipaji na utaalamu wa taasisi za kigeni. Inaweza tu kutoa huduma maalum kama benki na fedha, pamoja na utalii, kama njia ya kuhakikisha mustakabali wake. Kwa kuwa sekta hizi zinategemea sana nia njema na imani ya wageni, Dubai iko hatarini kuporomoka kiuchumi endapo nguvu hizi zitaamua kujiondoa. Hili linaweza kusababishwa na sababu mbalimbali. Vita vya kikanda vinaweza kuifanya Dubai kuwa mahali pasipo salama kwa wafanyakazi, huku njia za biashara zikikatwa. Bei za nyumba zingeporomoka, na fedha zinazomiminika sasa kwenye mali isiyohamishika zingekimbia kutoka jijini.

These reasons show why Dubai is nothing more than a mirage in the desert. Its growth and survival are dependent upon the talent and expertise of foreign entities. It can only offer specialist services such as banking and finance as a means to guarantee its future, along with tourism. As these sectors rely heavily on the goodwill and confidence of foreigners, Dubai is vulnerable to economic collapse if ever these powers decide to pull out. This could be caused for a variety of reasons. A regional war could render Dubai an unsafe place for workers, with trade routes also being cut off. Housing prices would collapse and money that is currently pouring into real estate would rush out of the city.

Ingawa hali hii inaweza kuonekana kama hali ya kupindukia, si hali isiyowezekana kutokana na hali halisi ya kisiasa ya Mashariki ya Kati. Hata wakati ustawi huu unaendelea, unakuja kwa gharama ya kupungua kwa maadili ya Kiislamu, kwani pombe na maovu mengine yanaruhusiwa ili kuvutia nguvu kazi ya Magharibi itakayoendesha uchumi.

Though this may appear an extreme scenario, it is not an unlikely one given the political reality of the Middle East. Even while this prosperity continues, it comes at a cost in the dilution of Islamic values since alcohol and other vices are permitted in order to attract a western workforce to drive the economy.

Kikwazo kwa mtu yeyote anayejaribu kuiga Dubai ni kwamba kunaweza kuwa na kitovu kimoja tu cha utalii na fedha katika eneo hilo. Kwa ufafanuzi, haiwezekani kuwa na vitovu viwili mahali pamoja. Mfano wa mashirika mawili ya ndege ya kikanda unatosha kueleza hoja hii. Emirates ni shirika la ndege linalofanya safari zake kutoka Dubai, wakati Etihad linafanya safari zake kutoka Abu Dhabi. Emiratesimefanikiwa kujijengea jina la biashara na ni maarufu miongoni mwa watu wanaosafiri kwenda eneo hilo. Etihad, kwa upande mwingine, inapata shida, kwani kuna wasafiri wachache tu wa kuyafanya mashirika mawili yaliyo karibu sana kila moja kuwa maarufu kama Emirates.

The limitation upon anyone trying to emulate Dubai is that there can only be one hub of tourism and finance in the region. By definition, there cannot be two hubs in one place. The example of two regional airlines is sufficient to explain this point. Emirates are an airline that runs out of Dubai, whilst Etihad runs from Abu Dhabi. Emirates have managed to establish itself as a brand and are popular with people travelling to the region. Etihad on the other hand struggles, as there simply is not enough traffic to make two airlines so close to each both as popular as Emirates.

Katika ulimwengu wa baada ya viwanda, kuwa na sekta kubwa ya huduma kunachukuliwa kuwa sharti la uchumi wa karne ya 21; Marekani na Uingereza zote zina sekta za huduma zinazounda zaidi ya 70% ya uchumi. Hata hivyo, Dubai pamoja na ulimwengu wa Kiislamu kwa ujumla haukupitia mapinduzi ya viwanda, hivyo kuwa uchumi unaotegemea huduma si modeli endelevu, na inapingana kabisa na njia ambayo ulimwengu wa Magharibi ulipitia hadi kuwa uchumi huru, ambao leo una msingi wa viwanda, majeshi makubwa na sekta za kilimo zinazofadhiliwa na serikali. Kama ilivyokuwa kwa mtikisiko wa mikopo, modeli ya Dubai ni Bubble inayovimba, inayosubiri kupasuka.

In a post-industrial world having a large service sector is considered a prerequisite for the 21st century economy, both the US and the UK have service sectors that make-up more then 70% of the economy. However, Dubai as well as the Muslim world never went through industrialisation, thus becoming service based economies is not a sustainable model and is in complete contradiction to the path the Western world took to become independent economies, which today have a manufacturing base, large militaries and state funded agricultural sectors. Like the credit crunch the Dubai model is an inflating bubble waiting to burst.