Mapambano ya kuwania ukuu wa dunia kati ya Ujerumani na Uingereza mwanzoni mwa karne ya 20 yaliwasukuma kutafuta nishati mbadala ili kuendesha mashine zao kubwa za kivita zilizokuwa zikitegemea makaa ya mawe.

The struggle for global supremacy between Germany and Britain at the beginning of the 20th century drove them to search for alternative fuels to power their bulky coal based war machines.

Ugunduzi wa mashamba ya mafuta Mashariki ya Kati mwanzoni mwa karne ya ishirini ulichochea karne nzima ya teknolojia mpya, ukaunda mifumo mipya ya jamii na matumizi, na kubadilisha mizani ya nguvu duniani.

The discovery of oil fields in the Middle East in the early 20th century spurred a century of new technologies, created new patterns of society and consumption and changed the global balance of power.

Nishati za visukuku kwa asili yake ni chache na hatimaye zitapungua. Kwa karibu karne nzima ya 20 hili halikuwahi kuwa mjadala kwa sababu sehemu kubwa ya mafuta duniani bado haikuwa imegunduliwa. Kwa kuwa teknolojia kama ndege za kivita, matangi na magari yote yameundwa kutumia mafuta, ikiwa mafuta yanakwisha basi, mbali na bei za mafuta kupanda sana, teknolojia hizo pia zingepoteza umuhimu.

Fossil fuels by their nature are limited and will eventually diminish. For most of the 20th century this was never a discussion as most of the world’s oil was still undiscovered. With technologies such as the fighter jet, tanks and automobiles all designed to run on oil, if oil is drying up then apart from oil prices exploding, such technologies would also become redundant.

"Peak oil" ilianzishwa kwa mara ya kwanza katika miaka ya 1970; ni nadharia inayokokotoa wakati ambapo nusu ya akiba zote za mafuta duniani zinazojulikana imeshasukumwa kutolewa ardhini.

‘Peak oil’ was first introduced in the 1970’s; it is a theory which calculates the point where half of the worlds known oil reserves have been pumped.

Kuna namba tatu muhimu zinazohitajika ili kukadiria uzalishaji wa mafuta wa baadaye. Ya kwanza ni hesabu ya kiasi cha mafuta ambayo yameshachimbwa hadi sasa, kinachojulikana kama uzalishaji wa jumla (cumulative production). Ya pili ni makadirio ya akiba (reserves); yaani kiasi ambacho kampuni zinaweza kusukuma kutoka kwenye mashamba yanayojulikana kabla ya kulazimika kuyaacha. Hatimaye, mtu lazima akadirie kwa busara kiasi cha mafuta ya kawaida (conventional oil) yaliyobaki ambayo bado hayajagunduliwa na kutumiwa. Kwa pamoja, namba hizi zinajumlishwa kupata urejeshaji wa mwisho (ultimate recovery), yaani jumla ya mapipa yatakayokuwa yamechimbwa wakati uzalishaji utakapokoma baada ya miongo mingi kutoka sasa.

There are three vital numbers that are needed to project future oil production. Firstly, the tally of how much oil has been extracted to date, a figure known as the cumulative production. The second is an estimate of reserves; the amount that companies can pump out of known fields before having to abandon them. Finally, one must make an educated guess at the quantity of conventional oil that remains to be discovered and exploited. Together they add up to the ultimate recovery i.e. the total number of barrels that will have been extracted when production ceases many decades from now.

Njia rahisi zaidi ya kuelewa tarehe za kilele ni kuangalia kama uzalishaji wa mafuta umezidi ugunduzi wa mafuta. Ushahidi unaoonyesha hili zaidi ni kwamba ugunduzi wa mafuta ulifikia kilele chake katika miaka ya 1960. Uga mkubwa wa mafuta wa hivi karibuni uligunduliwa Mexico mwaka 1985, wakati wazalishaji wengi wa leo wana nyanja zilizokomaa ambazoziligunduliwa katika miaka ya 1950. Dunia sasa inatumia kiasi cha mafuta mara nne zaidi ya kile kinachopatikana. Kampuni za mafuta zinatumia fedha nyingi kujaribu kutafuta akiba mpya za mafuta, lakini zile zinazopatikana zinazidi kuwa ndogo, na hivyo kuzalisha mafuta kidogo. Kwa kuwa ugunduzi unazidi kupungua, uzalishaji wa sasa wa mafuta unamaliza akiba ya mwisho ya dhahabu nyeusi.

The easiest way to comprehend an understanding of peaking dates is to see if production of oil has outstripped oil discoveries. The most damning evidence for this is that oil discoveries actually peaked in the 1960’s. The most recent large oil field was discovered in Mexico in 1985, while the majority of today’s producers have mature fields that were discovered in the 1950’s. The world now consumes four times the quantity of oil as is found. The oil companies are spending a fortune on trying to find new oil reserves, but the ones that they find are getting smaller and smaller, and therefore produce less oil. With diminishing discoveries the current production of oil is depleting the last reserves of the black gold.

Baadhi ya makadirio yenye matumaini kupita kiasi yanatoa tarehe za kilele hadi mwaka 2060, lakini makadirio ya kuaminika zaidi kwa wakati uzalishaji wa mafuta duniani utakapofikia kilele yanatofautiana kati ya sasa na mwaka 2012. Ikiwa uzalishaji unapaswa kuanza kupungua duniani kote hivi karibuni, basi tayari tungepaswa kuona nchi ambazo zimefikia kilele chao au ziko karibu kukifikia. Kati ya wazalishaji saba wakubwa wa mafuta, sita wako katika hali ya kupungua au karibu na kilele cha uzalishaji. Marekani ilifikia kilele mwaka 1971, Norway mwaka 2001, na Uingereza mwaka 1998. Urusi, Mexico na China wanatabiriwa kufikia kilele mwaka 2008. Pia inawezekana kwamba Saudi Arabia ilifikia kilele mwaka 2005. Mzalishaji pekee kati ya wale saba wakubwa ambaye ana uwezo wa wazi wa kuongeza uzalishaji ni Iran.

Some overly optimistic predictions give peaking dates up to the year 2060, but the most reliable estimates for when global oil production will peak vary from between now and 2012. If production is meant to start diminishing worldwide very soon, then we should already see countries that have reached their peaks or are just about to reach their peak. Of the top seven oil producers, six are in decline or near peak production. USA peaked 1971, Norway peaked 2001, and the UK peaked in 1998. Russia, Mexico and China are forecast to peak in 2008. It is also possible that Saudi Arabia peaked in 2005. The only one of the top seven producers that has clear capability to increase production is Iran.

Kuna sababu kadhaa nyingine zinazounga mkono hoja ya kilele cha mapema. Kampuni kubwa za mafuta (k.m. Shell) zinapata shida kubadilisha akiba zao na kujaza mapengo ya makadirio ya akiba zilizozidishwa hapo awali.

There are a number of other factors that support the early peak argument. Major oil companies (e.g. Shell) are finding it difficult to replace reserves and to backfill previous reserve over-estimates.

Kuunganishwa kwa sekta ya mafuta kunaficha upungufu wa akiba kwa kuchanganya akiba zilizopo. Kampuni za mafuta kama BP zimelazimika kubadilisha akiba kwa kutumia makubaliano ya uzalishaji katika mashamba ya zamani (kwa mfano, Urusi) badala ya utafutaji safi. Uwekezaji katika utafutaji unapungua. Taarifa za kiufundi kutoka hali ya mashamba makubwa ya mafuta ya Saudi Arabia zinaonyesha kiwango cha juu cha kupungua kwa akiba. Sera ya kigeni ya Marekani kuhusu Mashariki ya Kati, Afghanistan, CIS, India, China na nchi za Asia inaonyesha juhudi kubwa za kutafuta mafuta na gesi.

Oil industry consolidation hides reserve shortages by combining existing reserves. Oil companies such as BP have resorted to replacing reserves through production agreements on old fields (e.g. Russia) rather than pure exploration. Investment in exploration is falling. Technical feedback from the state of major Saudi Arabian oil fields indicates a high level of depletion. US foreign policy visà-vis the Middle East, Afghanistan, CIS, India, China and Asian states indicates frantic scouring for oil and gas.

Ni sababu hizi ndizo zilizomwezesha peak oil kuingia katika mkondo mkuu wa mawazo, na wazo kwamba dunia inakaribia kuishiwa mafuta linachukuliwa kuwa kero ya kijiografia kwa madola makubwa ya dunia. Hata hivyo, kwa kweli hoja hii inaficha masuala kadhaa ya kisiasa yaliyo ya kina zaidi.

It is these reasons that have allowed peak oil to enter the mainstream and the view that the world is running out of oil is considered a geopolitical headache for the world’s powers. However in reality this argument masks a number of deeper political issues.

Dunia inakaribia kuishiwa mafuta ni kisingizio rahisi cha matumizi makubwa kupita kiasi ya Magharibi, kwa kuwa kupunguza matumizi kunachukuliwa kuwa mwiko mkubwa zaidi. Mataifa yanapozidi kugombania usambazaji wa mafuta unaozidi kupungua, hili limeifichua Magharibi. Ulimwengu wa Magharibi unatumia asilimia 50 ya rasilimali muhimu zaidi ya karne ya 21, lakini unazalisha chini ya robo yake. Ni matumizi makubwa kupita kiasi, badala ya kupungua kwa mafuta, ndiyo yanayosababisha mgogoro wa nishati.

The world is running out of oil is a convenient excuse for the West’s over consumption, since to reduce consumption is considered the ultimate taboo. As more and more nations scramble for the ever dwindling supply of oil, this has exposed the West. The Western world consumes 50% of the 21st century’s most important resource but produced less then a quarter of it. It is over consumption rather than the fact that oil is depleting that is causing the energy crisis.

Marekani kwa hakika inazalisha asilimia 8 tu ya mafuta ya dunia lakini inatumia asilimia 25 yake. Matumizi makubwa kiasi hicho ya Magharibi hayawezi kudumu kamwe; hii ni kwa sababu Magharibi kwa msingi wake imetegemea idadi ndogo ya mashamba makubwa sana kwa sehemu kubwa ya matumizi yake ya kila siku. Ingawa dunia ina makumi ya maelfu ya mashamba yanayofanya kazi, mashamba 116 tu kati yake huzalisha zaidi ya mapipa 100,000 kwa siku, na yanachangia asilimia 50 ya uzalishaji wa dunia. Kati ya haya, yote isipokuwa machache yaligunduliwa zaidi ya robo karne iliyopita, na mengi yanaonyesha dalili za kupungua uwezo wake. Kwa hakika, baadhi ya mashamba makubwa zaidi duniani – yakiwemo Ghawar nchini Saudi Arabia, Burgan nchini Kuwait, Cantarell nchini Mexico, na Samotlor nchini Urusi – yanaonekana kuwa tayari yanapungua au yako karibu kuanza kupungua. Kupungua kwa mashamba haya makubwa ni jambo la uzito mkubwa. Kufidia uzalishaji uliopotea kutahitaji kuongezeka kwa mavuno katika maelfu ya mashamba madogo, na hakuna ushahidi wowote kwamba hilo linawezekana hata kidogo.

The US specifically produced only 8% of the world’s oil but consumes 25% of it. Such huge consumption by the West is never sustainable; this is because the West essentially has relied on a relatively small number of mammoth fields for the lion’s share of their daily intake. Though the world possesses tens of thousands of operating fields, only 116 of them produce more than 100,000 barrels per day and they account for 50% of global output. Of these, all but a handful were discovered more than a quarter of a century ago, and most are showing signs of diminished capacity. Indeed, some of the world’s largest fields – including Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, Burgan in Kuwait, Cantarell in Mexico, and Samotlor in Russia – appear to be now in decline or about to become so. The decline of these giant fields matters greatly. Compensating for their lost output will take increased yield at thousands of smaller fields, and there is no evidence that this is even remotely possible.

Matumizi ya nishati nchini Marekani yanapoendelea kuongezeka, ushindani wa kupata vyanzo vya nishati vinavyopungua utazidi kuwa mkali.

As US consumption continues to rise, the competition for dwindling energy sources will intensify.

Hii itaifanya nchi za Waislamu kuwa muhimu zaidi, na kama ilivyokuwa Iraq, uvamizi unaweza kuonekana kuwa wa haki ili kupata usambazaji imara wa dhahabu nyeusi. Ingawa mafuta yanakaribia kuisha, hilo linatokana zaidi na mifumo ya matumizi ya Magharibi kuliko na ukweli kwamba kuna mafuta kidogo tu.

This will make the Muslim lands even more important and as with Iraq, occupation may well be justified for stable supplies of the black gold. Although oil is running out, it is due to Western consumption patterns rather then there merely being too little oil.