8. Marekani haishindwi - Hadithi za Kijiografia za Kisiasa | Quran Course

8. Marekani haishindwi - Hadithi za Kijiografia za Kisiasa | Quran Course

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8. Marekani haishindwi

8. America is invincible

by Adnan Khan3 min readViewed 209 times

Mwishoni mwa karne ya 20, Marekani ilikuwa nguvu kubwa zaidi duniani. Kuanguka kwa Umoja wa Kisovieti miaka 10 kabla ya hapo kulimaanisha kwamba Marekani haikukabiliwa na changamoto kubwa kutoka kwa taifa lolote lingine, nayo ilionekana kuwa imefikia utawala kamili katika kila nyanja. Hakukuwa tena na mzozo wa maana kati ya Umaksi na soko huria. Ilionekana kana kwamba demokrasia ya kiliberali ya Magharibi inakuwa "aina ya mwisho ya utawala wa binadamu." Hali hii ilisababisha Wananeoconservatives wenye kiburi kubuni sera za kuhakikisha hali kama hiyo inaendelea katika siku zijazo zinazoonekana. Ni hali hii iliyowafanya waangalizi wengi kukubali ukuu na kutoshindika kwa Marekani usio na mpinzani. Hata hivyo, muongo mmoja baadaye, jambo hili lilikuwa mbali sana na ukweli. Uchunguzi makini wa mizani ya nguvu duniani na sera za nje za Marekani unaonyesha Marekani inayoyumba.

On the eve of the 21st century the US was the world’s foremost power. With the collapse of the Soviet Union 10 years earlier the US faced very little challenge from any other nation and was considered to have achieved full spectrum dominance. There was no longer any meaningful dispute between Marxism and the market. It looked as though Western liberal democracy was becoming ‘the final form of human government.’ This led to the arrogant Neoconservatives developing policies to ensure such a scenario continued into the foreseeable future. It was this climate that led many observers to accept unrivalled US supremacy and invincibility. However a decade on, this could not be further from the truth. An astute observation of the global balance of power and US foreign policy suggests a faltering US.

Marekani inavuja damu polepole kutokana na majeraha mawili wazi nchini Iraq na Afghanistan ambayo hayaonyeshi dalili za kupungua. Vita vyote viwili sasa vimedumu kwa muda mrefu kuliko Vita vya Pili vya Dunia. Jeshi la Marekani, lenye teknolojia ya hali ya juu zaidi katika historia, limeshindwa kuwashinda vikundi vya wapiganaji wa upinzani wasio na mafunzo, wanaotumia silaha zilizobuniwa katika miaka ya 1960. Kwa sababu hiyo, Marekani inalazimika kutegemea mataifa ya kikanda ili kuepuka aibu. Marekani imewaomba msaada Syria na Iran kupitia njia za nyuma za mawasiliano ili kudumisha utulivu. Ni kupitia Iran ambapo utulivu umefika kusini mwa Iraq, na hili limepatikana kupitia Maayatollah wawili kutoka Iran: Ayatollah Sistani na Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, kiongozi wa Baraza Kuu la Mapinduzi ya Kiislamu (SCIR). Abdul Aziz al-Hakim ana wanajeshi 10,000 chini ya amri yake, na amesukuma kwa nguvu shirikisho kwa mikoa ya kusini, akitoa wito wa kuunganishwa kwa mikoa tisa. Tamko la Hakim la kutaka uhuru mkubwa zaidi wa Washia linaendana na mpango wa Marekani wa kuvunjwa kwa Iraq. Hiki ndicho kilichokuwa sababu kuu ya ripoti ya Baker-Hamilton kuitaka kuhusishwa kwa Iran na Syria, kwa sababu Iran hasa ndiyo makao ya uaminifu wa Iraq ya Kusini.

America is slowly bleeding to death from two open wounds in Iraq and Afghanistan that show no signs of abating. Both wars have now lasted longer than World War 2. The US army, the most technologically advanced in history has been unable to defeat groups of untrained resistance fighters using weapons developed in the 1960’s. As a result the US has to rely on regional nations to avoid embarrassment. The US has enlisted Syrian and Iranian assistance via back door channels to maintain stability. It is through Iran that stability has come to the South of Iraq and this has been achieved through two Ayatollahs from Iran - Ayatollah Sistani and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim the leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution (SCIR). Abdul al-Aziz Hakim has 10,000 soldiers at his disposal and has aggressively pushed for federalism for the southern regions, calling for nine provinces to merge. Hakim’s declaration for greater Shi’ite autonomy coincides with the US plan of the dissolution of Iraq. This was the primary reason the Baker-Hamilton report called for the engagement of Iran and Syria because Iran specifically is the home for Southern Iraqi loyalty.

Tehran imefanikisha hili kwa kutekeleza miradi kadhaa ya ujenzi upya, jambo ambalo limeiwezesha NATO kufanya kazi katika eneo dogo zaidi la upinzani. Iran ilikuwa sababu muhimu katika kuangushwa kwa Taliban, na imejenga barabara, njia za kusafirisha umeme, vituo vya mpakani, pamoja na miradi mingine ya miundombinu. Kanali Christopher Langton, anayeongoza Idara ya Uchambuzi wa Ulinzi katika Taasisi ya Kimataifa ya Mafunzo ya Kimkakati jijini London, alisema Iran ni nchi muhimu katika ujenzi upya na maendeleo ya baadaye ya Afghanistan. "Mahusiano yao yameimarishwa na juhudi dhidi ya Taliban huko nyuma, lakini pia kwa sababu ya ushawishi ambao Iran inaweza kuleta huko kupitia watu wa Hazara [ambao, kama Wairan, ni Waislamu wa madhehebu ya Shia]. Na katika sekta ya maendeleo, tayari kuna miradi ambayo Iran inahusika nayo. Kwa mfano, barabara inayotoka Bandar Abbas kwenye Ghuba ya Uajemi kupitia Afghanistan hadi Asia ya Kati ni mradi muhimu sana kwa mustakabali wa Afghanistan… Kuna orodha kamili ya masuala ya kisiasa, kiuchumi na kiusalama yanayounganisha Afghanistan na Iran."

Tehran has achieved this by carrying out a number of reconstruction projects which has allowed NATO to work on a much smaller area of resistance. Iran was a key factor in the overthrow of the Taliban and has built roads, power transmission lines, and border stations, among other infrastructure projects. Colonel Christopher Langton, who heads the Defense Analysis Department at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said Iran is an important country in the future reconstruction and development of Afghanistan, ‘They are being closely linked by efforts against the Taliban in the past, but also because of the influence that Iran can bring there with the Hazara population [who, like Iranians, are Shi'a Muslims]. And in the development sector, there are already projects which Iran is involved in -- for instance, the road from Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf up through Afghanistan to Central Asia is a very, very important project for the future of Afghanistan…There is a whole list of political, economic, and security issues which connect Afghanistan and Iran.

Hilo limeibua maoni ya Richard Hass, mkuu wa wakala wa fikra (think tank) wenye nguvu zaidi nchini Marekani: "zama za utawala wa Marekani katika Mashariki ya Kati zimekwisha, na enzi mpya katika historia ya kisasa ya eneo hili imeanza. Itaundwa na wadau wapya na nguvu mpya zinazoshindana kupata ushawishi, na ili kuimudu, Washington itabidi kutegemea zaidi diplomasia kuliko nguvu ya kijeshi. Marekani inakabiliwa na changamoto nyingi katika maeneo ya dunia ambayo, miaka kumi tu iliyopita, ilikuwa ikiyatawala kikamilifu. Katika Mashariki ya Kati, mbali na kuhitaji msaada wa washirika wa kikanda, eneo hili linabadilika taratibu kutoka kuwa eneo la kipolar moja, ambamo Marekani inafurahia utawala usiopingwa, kuwa eneo la kipolar nyingi. Marekani inakabiliwa na ushindani zaidi kutoka China na Urusi kuhusu upatikanaji wa mafuta ya Mashariki ya Kati. Marekani sasa inashindana zaidi na India na Japani pamoja na Umoja wa Ulaya kwa sehemu kubwa ya dhahabu nyeusi ya eneo hili. Uingereza pia imefanikiwa kuvuruga miradi ya Kimarekani kwa kisingizio cha ushirikiano na ushirikiano. Graham Fuller, aliyekuwa makamu mwenyekiti wa Baraza la Ujasusi la Taifa, alielezea hali ngumu ya Marekani alipoandika katika toleo la National Interest: 'nchi mbalimbali zimetumia mikakati na mbinu nyingi zilizolenga kudhoofisha, kuelekeza kando, kubadilisha, kutatiza, kupunguza, kuchelewesha au kuzuia ajenda ya Bush kwa njia ya 'kifo cha kupigwa kwa mikato elfu moja'."

This has prompted Richard Hass the head of the most powerful US think tank to comment: ‘the age of US dominance in the Middle East has ended and a new era in the modern history of the region has begun. It will be shaped by new actors and new forces competing for influence, and to master it, Washington will have to rely more on diplomacy than on military might. The US is facing numerous challenges in regions of the world which only a decade ago it completely dominated. In the Middle East apart from needing the help of regional surrogates, the Middle East is gradually shifting from being a uni-polar region in which the US enjoys uncontested hegemony to a multi-polar region. The US is facing more competition from China and Russia over access to Middle East oil. The US is now increasingly competing with India and Japan as well as the European Union for the lion's share of the regions black gold. Britain has also managed to foil American projects under the guise of partnership and co-operation. Graham Fuller former vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council described America’s predicament when he wrote in the issue of the National Interest, ‘diverse countries have deployed a multiplicity of strategies and tactics designed to weaken, divert, alter, complicate, limit delay or block the Bush agenda through death by a thousand cuts.

Tishio kubwa zaidi la kiuchumi kwa Marekani linatoka China, na tayari mataifa haya mawili yana uhusiano tata. Kampuni za Marekani zina hamu kubwa ya kuingia katika soko la watu bilioni 1.5 wa China, huku wakati huo huo asilimia 70 ya bidhaa za China zikifika kwenye pwani za Marekani. China imenufaika zaidi kuliko Marekani katika uhusiano huu kwa kukusanya zaidi ya dola trilioni 1.2 za akiba ya dola. Kampuni za ndani za Marekani, kwa upande mwingine, zimeshindwa kulingana na bei za chini za China kwa bidhaa zenye ufundi bora, na hali hii imesababisha nakisi ya biashara ya Marekani kuongezeka hadi karibu dola trilioni 1. Marekani inagharamia hili kwa kutoa hati fungani za hazina, ambazo China ndiyo mnunuzi mkubwa zaidi duniani baada ya Japani, ikinunua kwa dola bilioni 502, sawa na asilimia 20 ya deni lote la nje la Marekani. Pia, ule ukuaji wa kiuchumi ambao Marekani inanufaika nao unaongeza mahitaji ya mafuta kutoka China. Uhusiano kati ya mataifa haya mawili ni wa kutegemeana, jambo ambalo Marekani haiwezi kulidhibiti kikamilifu, na haiwezi kwa urahisi kuamuru masharti.

America’s biggest threat economically comes from China and already both nations have a complex relationship. US companies are eager to tap into the 1.5 billion Chinese population, whilst at the same time 70% of Chinese goods end up on US shores. China has benefited more from this relationship than the US by accumulating over $1.2 trillion in dollar reserves. Domestic US companies on the other hand are unable to match Chinese low prices for quality workmanship and this has led the US trade deficit to balloon to nearly $1 trillion. The US funds this by issuing treasury bonds, of which China is the world’s largest purchaser after Japan at $502 billion, 20% of total US foreign debt. Added to this is that the very economic boom America is benefiting from is increasing demand for oil by China. The relationship between the two is interdependent which the US does not have full control over and cannot easily dictate terms.