Ghuba ya Uajemi, pamoja na akiba yake kubwa ya nishati na eneo lake la kimkakati, pamoja na kuwa chanzo kikubwa kimoja cha mafuta ghafi duniani, imekuwa kitovu cha mizozo kwa zaidi ya miaka 100 kati ya mataifa mbalimbali yenye nguvu, huku nguvu yenye ushawishi mkubwa zaidi katika eneo hilo ikiwa ni Iran. Hivyo, yeyote atakayekuwa upande wa Iran atakuwa na udhibiti wa eneo lote, kwa kuwa Iran ndiyo ufunguo wa eneo hilo.

The Persian Gulf with its immense energy reserves and strategic location as well as being the world’s largest single source of crude oil, has been the centre of conflict for over 100 years by various powers with the most powerful force in the region being Iran. Hence whoever has Iran on their side will have control over the entire region since Iran is the key to the region.

Tangu Marekani ilipoivamia Iraq, Iran imekuwa ikikabiliwa na mashambulizi makali ya lawama kutoka kwa maafisa wa Marekani, na hata George W. Bush alitishia kuwepo kwa vita dhidi yake. Tangu hotuba ya Bush ya hali ya Muungano mwaka 2002, iliyoitaja "mhimili wa uovu", Bush amekataa kushirikiana na Iran. Iran imekuwa ikishtakiwa mara kwa mara kwa kuwapa silaha waasi nchini Iraq, kuiunga mkono Hizbollah, na kuendeleza silaha za nyuklia. Kutumwa kwa meli nyingine ya kivita ya angani katika Ghuba ya Uajemi kumeongeza zaidi uvumi kwamba Marekani huenda ikaanzisha shambulio dhidi ya Iran. Yote haya, kwa mtazamo wa juu juu, yanaonyesha kwamba Marekani na Iran zinapingana kabisa, kwamba maslahi yao yanatofautiana sana, na kwa hiyo Iran ni tishio la moja kwa moja kwa Marekani katika eneo hilo, hivyo inahitaji kupokonywa silaha, hasa silaha zake za nyuklia, kuvuliwa sifa zake za Kiislamu, na kumiminiwa demokrasia na uhuru.

Since the invasion of Iraq by the US, Iran has been on the receiving end of a barrage of criticism by US officials and has even been threatened with war by George W. Bush. Since Bush’s axis of evil state of the union speech in 2002, Bush has refused to engage with Iran. Iran is continually accused of arming the insurgency in Iraq, supporting Hizbollah and developing nuclear weapons. The dispatch of an additional aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf all increased speculation that the US may launch an attack against Iran. All of this on the surface indicates that the US and Iran are diametrically opposed to each other, have interests which widely differ and as a result Iran represents a direct threat to the US in the region hence it needs to be disarmed, especially of its nuclear weapons and stripped of its Islamic credentials and showered with democracy and freedom.

Tangu "Mapinduzi ya Kiislamu" ya mwaka 1979, serikali mfululizo, kuanzia zile za Rafsanjani hadi Khatami, zimejaribu kufuta picha ya wahafidhina wa kupindukia kwa kujenga uhusiano na Ulaya na nchi za Magharibi. Hali hii imesababisha ushirikiano kati ya Marekani na Iran katika maeneo mbalimbali. Mwaka 1986 kashfa ya Iran-Contra ilifichuliwa, ambapo utawala wa Marekani uliuza silaha kwa Iran, ambayo wakati huo ilikuwa adui aliyetangazwa hadharani, na kutumia faida ya mauzo hayo kufadhili Contras, kundi la waasi wa kigaidi lenye msimamo wa kupinga ukomunisti huko Nicaragua. Makombora ya kuzuia magari ya kivita yalitolewa kwa Iran pamoja na shehena za makombora ya ardhini kwenda angani, yenye thamani ya zaidi ya dola bilioni 2, kupitia Israel.

Since the so called ‘Islamic Revolution’ in 1979 successive governments from Rafsanjani and Khatami have tried to dispel the image of ultra-conservatives by building links with Europe and the West. This has resulted in the US-Iran cooperation in various areas. In 1986 the Iran-Contra Affair was exposed where the US administration sold arms to Iran, an avowed enemy at the time, and used the proceeds to fund the Contras, an anti-communist guerrilla organisation in Nicaragua. Anti-Tank missiles were provided to Iran along with shipments of surface-to-air missiles totalling more than $2 billion via Israel.

Licha ya kudharauliwa hadharani na utawala wa Bush, wanamatengenezo hawa katika serikali ya Iran wanaendelea kukuza maslahi ya Marekani nchini Iran, pamoja na nchi jirani za Afghanistan na Iraq. Nchini Iraq, Tehran inaendelea kutoa msaada kwa kiongozi wa SCIRI, Ayatollah Hakim, na Badr Brigade, ambao wamekuwa msingi mkuu wa mipango ya Marekani kwa Iraq ya Kusini. Nchini Afghanistan, Iran inaendesha programu kubwa za ujenzi mpya na mafunzo mjini Kabul, Herat na Kandahar. Hadi sasa, Iran imefanikiwa kuzuia upinzani wa Pashtun usienee hadi Afghanistan ya Kaskazini. Ripoti ya Baker-Hamilton ilithibitisha ushirikiano huu: '…Marekani inapaswa kushiriki moja kwa moja na Iran na Syria ili kujaribu kupata ahadi yao ya kufuata sera zenye kujenga kuhusu Iraq na masuala mengine ya kikanda. Katika kushirikiana na Syria na Iran, Marekani inapaswa kuzingatia motisha pamoja na vikwazo; katika kutafuta matokeo yenye kujenga…Kushirikiana na Iran ni jambo lenye changamoto, hasa kwa kuzingatia hali ya uhusiano wa Marekani na Iran. Hata hivyo, Marekani na Iran zilishirikiana Afghanistan, na pande zote mbili zinapaswa kuchunguza kama mfano huu unaweza kuigwa katika kesi ya Iraq.' Kwa upande mwingine, Marekani imejaribu kutoa hoja yenye nguvu kuhusu tishio linaloletwa na uwezo wa nyuklia wa Iran, na inaendelea kusukuma vikwazo kwa sababu matarajio ya nyuklia ya nchi hiyo yanapingana na kanuni za kimataifa. Israeli ndiyo nchi pekee inayoendelea kueneza mtazamo kwamba bomu la nyuklia la Iran liko miezi kadhaa mbali. Sylvan Shalom, Waziri wa Mambo ya Nje wa Israeli, aliwaambia mkutano wa viongozi wa Kiyahudi jijini New York: 'Kulingana na watu wetu, usalama na ujasusi, wako karibu sana. Huenda ikawa miezi sita tu kabla hawajapata maarifa kamili.' Mwaka 2005, katika mkutano wa Shirika la Kimataifa la Nishati ya Atomiki (IAEA) mjini Vienna, kiongozi mkuu wa Iran, Ayatollah Khameni, alitoa fatwa iliyokataza kuhifadhi, kutengeneza na kutumia silaha za nyuklia.

Despite being publicly derided by the Bush administration, such reformists in the Iranian government continue to promote US interests in Iran, and neighbouring Afghanistan and Iraq. In Iraq, Tehran continues to extend support to the leader of SCIRI, Ayatollah Hakim and the Badr Brigade who have become the lynchpin of US plans for Southern Iraq. In Afghanistan, Iran runs extensive reconstruction and training programs in Kabul, Herat and Kandahar. Thus far, Iran has successfully prevented the Pushtun resistance from spreading to Northern Afghanistan. The BakerHamilton report confirmed such engagement: ‘…the United States should engage directly with Iran and Syria in order to try to obtain their commitment to constructive policies toward Iraq and other regional issues. In engaging Syria and Iran, the United States should consider incentives, as well as disincentives; in seeking constructive results…Engaging Iran is problematic, especially given the state of the US-Iranian relationship. Yet the United States and Iran cooperated in Afghanistan, and both sides should explore whether this model can be replicated in the case of Iraq.’ On the other hand the US has attempted to make a compelling case about the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear capability, and continues to push for sanctions as the country’s nuclear aspirations contravene international norms. Israel is the only country that continues to propagate the view that Iran’s nuclear bomb is months away. Sylvan Shalom, Israel’s Foreign Minister told a meeting of Jewish leaders in New York: ‘According to our people, security and intelligence, they are very, very close. It may be only six months before they will have that full knowledge.’ In 2005, at the meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khameni, issued a fatwa, which forbade the stockpiling, production, and use of nuclear weapons.

Kiongozi mkuu pia alikuwa ametoa pendekezo la mazungumzo ya amani na Israeli mwaka 2003.

The supreme leader had also offered peace talks with Israel in 2003.

Kwa zaidi ya nusu karne, Marekani imekuwa ikishirikiana na Iran kwa njia tofauti. Hivi sasa tunashuhudia ishara zinazopingana kutoka Washington: kwa upande mmoja, kuna ushirikiano na mazungumzo kati ya nchi hizo mbili, huku kwa upande mwingine Iran ikikosolewa hadharani kwa kuwa ya Kiislamu na kwa kuendeleza kwa ukali juhudi zake za kutengeneza silaha za maangamizi makubwa.

Over a period of over half a century the US has engaged with Iran in different ways. Currently what we are witnessing is a number of mixed signals coming from Washington where engagement and cooperation takes place between the two nations whilst on the other hand Iran is publicly rebuked for being Islamic and aggressive in its pursuance of weapons of mass destruction.

Kwa Marekani, mapinduzi ya Kiislamu ambayo yenyewe ilibuni yameshapitwa na wakati. Kwa muda sasa Marekani imekuwa ikifanya kazi ya kumaliza rasmi mapinduzi hayo (kama vile Jihadi nchini Pakistan ambayo iliikuza wakati wa uvamizi wa Muungano wa Kisovieti nchini Afghanistan), kwa kuwa malengo ambayo mapinduzi hayo yalibuniwa kwa ajili yake yameshafikiwa.

For the US the Islamic revolution which it engineered has outlived its use. The US for some time has been working to officially end the revolution (similar to the Jihad in Pakistan it promoted during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan) as those objectives for which the revolution was engineered, have been achieved.

Malengo ya mapinduzi yalikuwa ni kumpindua Shah, ambaye kufikia mwaka 1979 alikuwa amejitenga na ushawishi wa Marekani. Kuchukuliwa mahali pake na mbadala anayeaminika machoni pa wananchi wa Iran kulikuwa kipaumbele kikuu cha kimkakati cha Marekani. Mikutano kati ya Ayatollah Khomeini na Marekani ili kupanga "mapinduzi" imethibitishwa na kiongozi wa Sudan wa wakati huo, Sadeq Al-Mehdi, ambaye alikuwa mpatanishi kati ya Marekani na Khomeini, pamoja na aliyekuwa Mwanasheria Mkuu, Ramsey Clark, aliyefanya mazungumzo ya moja kwa moja na Khomeini mwaka 1979. Mapinduzi hayo yalisababisha "wahafidhina" wakiongozwa na Khomeini kuchukua udhibiti halisi wa jeshi, mahakama, idara ya ujasusi na vyombo vya usalama. Licha ya matamshi ya kupinga Marekani kutoka Iran, haijawahi kusitisha kuiuzia Marekani mafuta, wala haijawahi kuvunja makubaliano yoyote nao. Huku wenye msimamo mkali wakiwa katika nafasi hizo muhimu, Marekani imeshindwa kuondoa kabisa mapinduzi ya Kiislamu nchini Iran. Ni hao hao wenye msimamo mkali wanaoendeleza juhudi za kutengeneza silaha za nyuklia na kununua silaha za kisasa ili kuimarisha nafasi yao, wakati Marekani inajaribu kukomesha hali hii.

The revolution’s objectives were to overthrow the Shah who had by 1979 moved away from US influence. His replacement by a credible alternative in the eyes of the people of Iran was a key US strategic priority. The meetings between Ayatollah Khomeini and the US to organise the ‘revolution,’ have been confirmed by the then Sudanese leader Sadeq Al-Mehdi, who was the mediator between the US and Khomeini, as well as the former Attorney General, Ramsey Clark who held direct talks with Khomeini in 1979. The revolution led to the ‘conservatives’ led by Khomeini taking effective control of the military, judiciary, intelligence and security apparatus. For all the anti-US rhetoric from Iran it never stopped supplying the US with oil and never ended any agreements with them. With the hardliners in such key positions the US has been unable to completely reverse the Islamic revolution in Iran. It is the same hardliners who are working on developing nuclear weapons and purchasing sophisticated weaponry in order to strengthen their position whilst the US is attempting to end this.

Jamii ya Iran leo ina zaidi ya asilimia 70 ya wakazi wake walio chini ya umri wa miaka 30; hii ina maana kwamba wengi wa watu wa Iran hawakuwa hata wamezaliwa wakati mapinduzi ya Kiislamu yalipotokea. Idadi kubwa ya vijana kama hii inatawaliwa na wahafidhina wanaoamini katika misingi ya mapinduzi, ilhali umma una uhusiano mdogo sana na misingi hiyo. Marekani imeshirikiana moja kwa moja na vikundi vya wanafunzi na wanamageuzi serikalini, lakini pia imeweka wazi kwamba iko tayari kuchukua hatua za kijeshi pale maslahi yake ya kitaifa yanapokuwa hatarini.

Iranian society today has over 70% of its population under the age of 30; this means the majority of the people in Iran were not even born when the Islamic revolution took place. Such a young population is ruled by conservatives who believe in the revolution’s ideals, whilst the public have very little with such ideals. The US has directly engaged with student groups and the reformists in government but is also making it clear that it is prepared to act militarily when US interests are at stake.

Tatizo kubwa zaidi linalokabili Marekani ni jinsi gani hasa ya kulifikia hili. Je, ni kupitia mazungumzo na ushirikiano au kwa nguvu za kijeshi ili kubadilisha mwenendo wa Tehran? Swali hili limeisumbua serikali ya Bush tangu George W. Bush alipoingia madarakani, na ndilo linalotuma ishara zinazochanganya.

The biggest problem the US faces is how exactly to achieve this. Should this be through engagement or military force in order to change Tehran’s behaviour? This has actually plagued the Bush administration ever since George W. Bush rose to office and is what sends mixed signals.

Katika moyo wa suala hili kulikuwa na mzozo kati ya wanahalisia na wananeoconservatives kuhusu njia bora ya kushughulikia Iran. Mgogoro huo ulienea katika idara zote za serikali ya Marekani na kugawanya taasisi kama Idara ya Mambo ya Nje, Pentagon na CIA. Tofauti kuhusu Iran zilifikia kilele mnamo Julai 2004 kwa kuchapishwa kwa ripoti iliyoitwa ‘Iran: Time for a New Approach’, ambayo iliandaliwa na Baraza la Mahusiano ya Kigeni (CFR) chini ya uongozi wa Dkt. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Mshauri wa Usalama wa Taifa wa Rais Jimmy Carter. Ripoti hiyo ilieleza kwamba Iran haikuwa tayari kwa mabadiliko ya utawala kama walivyoyapendekeza wananeoconservatives. Ripoti ilisema: ‘Licha ya mabadiliko makubwa ya kisiasa na kutoridhika kwa wananchi, Iran haiko karibu na mapinduzi mengine. Makundi yaliyojitolea kuhifadhi mfumo wa sasa wa Iran bado yanadhibiti kwa uthabiti.’ Ripoti hiyo pia ilisisitiza kwamba ‘mapatano makubwa’ ya kumaliza migogoro yote iliyosalia kati ya Washington na Tehran hayawezekani, na kwamba mazungumzo yanapaswa badala yake kulenga ‘maendeleo ya taratibu’ katika masuala mbalimbali muhimu, ikiwemo utulivu wa kikanda na azma ya nyuklia ya Iran.

At the heart of the issue was the dispute between the realists and the neoconservatives regarding the best approach towards Iran. The row permeated all sections of the US government and divided institutions like the State Department, the Pentagon and the CIA. The disagreements over Iran came to ahead in July 2004 with the publication of the report entitled ‘Iran: Time for a New Approach’ which was prepared by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) under the direction of Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Adviser. The report argued that Iran was not ripe for regime change as advocated by the neoconservatives. The report stated: ‘Despite considerable political flux and popular dissatisfaction. Iran is not on the verge of another revolution. Those forces that are committed to preserving Iran's current system remain firmly in control.’ The report also stressed, that a ‘grand bargain’ to settle all outstanding conflicts between Washington and Tehran is unrealistic and that talks should focus instead on making ‘incremental progress’ on a variety of key issues, including regional stability and Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Mapendekezo ya ripoti hayo yalikataliwa mara moja na wanamrengo-mpya (neoconservatives) waliokuwa karibu sana na Makamu wa Rais Dick Cheney na aliyekuwa Waziri wa Ulinzi Donald Rumsfeld. Mwanamrengo-mpya mkuu Micheal Ledeen, anayeiona Tehran kuwa mji mkuu wa dunia wa "wakuu wa ugaidi wa Kiislamu," aliandika katika National Review Online kwamba mapendekezo ya CFR yalikuwa ya "kudhalilisha" na yalikuwa "kujipendekeza kwa adui." Hata hivyo, katika muhula wa pili wa Bush na kutokana na janga la Iraq, ushawishi wa wanamrengo-mpya ulipungua kwa kiasi kikubwa. Baadhi yao, kama Paul Wolfowitz na John Bolton, waliondolewa kwenye nafasi za kuunda sera za nje na kupewa majukumu ya kutekeleza sera katika Benki ya Dunia na Umoja wa Mataifa, wakati wengine, kama Douglas Feith, walilazimika kuondoka. Kuondoka kwa wanamrengo-mpya kulifungua njia kwa uhalisia (realism) na nguvu laini (soft power) katika utawala wa Bush. Kwa kiasi kikubwa, usawa ulirejeshwa kati ya ushawishi wa Idara ya Mambo ya Nje ya Marekani na Pentagon katika masuala ya sera za nje. Ushirikiano na mataifa mengine kutatua migogoro ya kisiasa nchini Sudan, Lebanon, Korea Kaskazini na Iran unakumbusha mbinu ya ushirikiano wa kimataifa (multilateralism) iliyotumiwa na tawala zilizotangulia za Marekani.

The recommendations of the report were instantly dismissed by the neoconservatives who were closely associated with Vice President Dick Cheney and the then defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Arch neoconservative Micheal Ledeen, who considers Tehran the global capital of Islamist ‘terror masters,’ wrote in National Review Online that the CFR recommendations were ‘humiliating’ and constituted ‘appeasement.’ However, in Bush’s second term of office and with the debacle of Iraq, the Neocons influence declined considerably. Some of the neoconservatives like Paul Wolfowitz and John Bolton were ushered out of foreign policy making roles and given policy implementation roles at the World Bank and the UN, while others like Douglas Feith were forced to leave. The departure of the neoconservatives gave way to realism and soft power in the Bush administration. To a large extent parity was restored between the influence of the US State Department and Pentagon over foreign policy matters. Collaboration with other nations to solve the political crisis in Sudan, Lebanon, North Korean, and Iran is reminiscent of multilateralism employed by previous US administrations.

Kupanda kwa mtazamo wa uhalisia (realism) katika utawala wa Bush hakujanyamazisha kabisa mitazamo ya wananeoconservatism kuhusu Iran. Dick Cheney, ambaye yuko kila mahali na ni mfuasi mkubwa wa neo-conservatism, amejichukulia jukumu la kuhakikisha kwamba, endapo fursa itapatikana, Marekani iko tayari kutumia nguvu kubwa mno dhidi ya Iran ili kuvamia na kudhibiti mashamba yake ya mafuta na gesi.

The ascendancy of realism in the Bush administration has not completely silenced neoconservative views on Iran. The ever present Dick Cheney an ardent supporter of neo-conservatism has taken it upon himself to ensure that should the opportunity avail itself, America is prepared to use overwhelming force against Iran to occupy its oil and gas fields.

Kwa muhtasari, mzozo kati ya Marekani na Iran ni wa kweli, lakini kuna maeneo mengi ambayo mzozo huu umewekwa kando na ushirikiano unaendelea. Wanahalisi katika utawala wa Bush sasa wana mkono wa juu, na njia wanayopendelea ya kushughulikia mpango wa nyuklia wa Iran ni kupitia pande nyingi na diplomasia, badala ya hatua za upande mmoja na uingiliaji wa kijeshi.

In summary, the conflict between the US and Iran is real, however there are many areas where this conflict has been put aside and cooperation is taking place. The realists in the Bush administration now have the upper hand and their preferred method of dealing with Iran’s nuclear programme is through multilateralism and diplomacy, as opposed to unilateralism and military intervention.

Hata hivyo, kushindwa kwa utawala wa Bush kuzinyamazisha sauti zinazohimiza hatua za kijeshi dhidi ya Iran kunaendelea kuitia wasiwasi dunia.

However, the failure of the Bush administration to subdue those voices who exhort military action against Iran continues to alarm the world.