当我第一次抵达世界上最大的资本主义国家时,我对美利坚合众国资本主义生产力的强大感到震惊。作为一个不到十六岁的年轻少年,我看到巨大的拖拉机和联合收割机耕作着数百英亩的土地,生产出大量的玉米和大豆,而这一切都由一户人家operate操作。我看到一位农夫的双手被他耕种的土地磨得粗糙,又被土地带来的金钱变得柔软。那时的我看不见那些资助整个经营的银行那双无形的手。我当时也看不到任何失败的迹象。

When I arrived for the first time to the land of the largest capitalist nation in the world, I was amazed by the power of capitalist productivity in the United States of America. As a young teenager, less than sixteen years old, I saw huge tractors and combines cultivating hundreds of acres and producing tons of corn and soybean grain, all operated by a single family. I saw the hands of a farmer hardened by the land he cultivated and softened by the money his land generated. I did not see then the invisible hands of the banks financing all that operation. I could not see any signs of failure then.

一年后，我的求学命运又把我带到了另一个极端。我抵达了世界上最大的社会主义国家所在之地，在苏维埃社会主义共和国联盟（苏联）度过接下来的六年，一边学习，一边观察社会主义。我记得自己常常不得不排队购买一件日用杂货，结果一个小时后却因为所等待的商品已经售罄而失望而归。我的直觉告诉我，那种体制不会持续下去。我还记得，要买一本数学或计算机科学的书，就必须先购买一份共产主义出版物作为条件。我感觉到，那种体制也不会持续太久。

A year later, my education fate flew me to the other extreme. I arrived at the land of the largest socialist nation in the to spend the next six years studying while observing socialism in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). I recall how often I had to stand in line to buy a grocery product, only to be disappointed an hour later because the item I waited for is no longer available. That system would not last, my instincts told me. I recall having to buy a communist publication as a condition for buying a book of math or computer science. That system would not last for long, I felt it.

我记得上学途中和放学回家的路上，不得不跨过醉倒在地的人。我还记得，成批的学生从医学院、法学院和工程学院毕业，却从未真正上过课；他们要么是政治活动分子，要么是有钱的外国留学生。我记得有人必须接受手术，只是为了完成某家医院外科医生的指标计划。我还记得宿舍房间墙上固定着一台简陋的广播监听器，它很可能是一台双向无线电设备。每当我关掉那台收音机，就会有技术人员来到我的房间修理，而我从未要求过这项服务。我知道这个体制不可能持续太久。我的直觉、本能和简单的分析，在我毕业离开苏联十年后才被证实：社会主义崩溃了，苏联于1991年解体。

I recall having to step over people lying drunk in my morning journey to school and on my way back. I recall scores of students graduating from medical, law, and engineering schools without even attending classes; they were political activists or rich foreign students. I recall people having to go through surgery only to fulfill the quota plan for the surgeon at a given hospital. I recall the primitive radio monitor fixed on the wall of my dorm room, which must have been a two-way radio. Every time I disabled the radio, technicians would show up at my room to fix it; I never asked for the service. I knew that system could not last for long. My gut feelings, my instincts, and simple analysis turned out to be true only ten years after I graduated and left the Soviet Union. Socialism collapsed and the Soviet Union was dismantled by 1991.

在苏联度过的六年，给了我一段终生难忘的经历。首先，即使我想，今天也不可能亲身体验社会主义下的生活。更重要的是，我学习了社会主义与资本主义两者在经济、政治经济学和社会结构方面的原理。卡尔·马克思、弗拉基米尔·列宁和弗里德里希·恩格斯的学说，与数学、物理和工程学一样，是课程中的重要组成部分。马克思提出、后经列宁进一步发展的历史唯物主义理论认为，资本主义终将消亡，并让位于社会主义。然而，社会主义率先在现实世界中瓦解，这一观点就此彻底破灭。马克思的“剩余价值”理论只在一个意义上是正确的：在资本主义制度下，财富往往集中到少数人手中。但该理论的另一部分认为，贫穷的工人和农民会为争取被剥夺的所有权而起义，这一预言却从未成为现实。

The six years I spent in the Soviet Union gave me an experience of a lifetime. For one thing, I could not experience the life under socialism today even if I wanted to. Most importantly, I learned the principles of economy, political economy, and social structure of both socialism and capitalism. The teachings of Karl Marx, Vladimir Lenin, and Friedrich Engels were as important part of the curriculum as the subjects of math, physics, and engineering. The theory of historic materialism developed by Marx and later refined by Lenin suggested that capitalism would fade away only to give rise to socialism. That view was dead beaten in real world when socialism fell first. Marx’s theory of the “surplus value” was correct only in the sense that under capitalism the wealth tends to accumulate in the hands of the few. But the other part of the theory that the poorer classes of workers and farmers would revolt for their stolen rights of ownerships never materialized.

当我第二次、也是更长时间地来到资本主义的土地上时，我观察到了第一次来访时作为少年所无法观察到的东西。我第一次旅居时所住的农场已经不再是原来的样子了。几年前曾为其生产提供资金的银行，因我的寄宿家庭未能偿还债务，将农场收走抵债。这位勤劳的农民失去了他的土地，也失去了他与兄弟们共同拥有的种子公司。我的直觉告诉我，这种制度不会长久。

When I arrived at the land of capitalism for the second but longer period of time, I observed what I could not have observed during my first trip when I was a young boy. The farm I lived in during my first trip was no longer the same. It was confiscated by the bank which, few years earlier had financed its production, in exchange for the debts which my host family failed to pay. The hardworking farmer lost his land and the seed company he co-owned with his brothers. This system would not last, my instincts told me.

同一个怪兽——银行——也吞并了我一位朋友在威斯康星州密尔沃基市拥有的机械厂。我记得这位朋友曾来到我的祖国，想要设立一家工厂，帮助一个发展中国家实现工业化。我记得这位老板（我的朋友）满怀热情地想帮助人们找到工作、支持教育，并且他多么厌恶让人们失去工作。和资本主义下的其他企业一样，他的企业也归银行所有。通常，资本主义国家的企业都欠着一家或多家银行的债务。我至今还记得一位投资银行代表对一家小型科技公司老板说过的话：“你不负债就无法经营企业。”我这位机械厂老板朋友失去了他的机械车间，那个在资本主义的土地上生产真实产品的车间。它当时正在生产产品、创造利润，却被银行没收了。有一段时间，银行还打起了我朋友人寿保单的主意，想以此作为他们所谓“损失的财富”的担保！我那时就知道，这个制度维持不了多久。

The same monster, the bank, swallowed the machine factory owned by one of my friends in the city of Milwaukee in Wisconsin. I recall how my friend traveled to my home country in attempt to set up a factory to help industrialize a developing country. I recall how the owner (my friend) was enthusiastic about helping people get jobs, supporting education, and how much he detested laying people off their jobs. Just like every other business under capitalism, his was also owned by the bank. Typically, businesses in capitalist countries are indebted to one or more banks. I still recall the words of an investing bank representative to the owner of a small technology company: “You cannot be in businesses without being in debt.” My machine factory owner friend lost his machine shop, the one that produces real products right here in the land of capitalism. It was making products and generating profit when it was confiscated by the bank. The banks for some time were going after the life insurance policy of my friend as a guarantee for their supposedly lost wealth! I knew then that this system would not last.

在我任职于世界最大公司之一的期间（当时员工超过16万人），我亲眼看到许多最优秀的工程师和技术人员，在裁员的名义下被护送出大楼。第一轮裁员裁掉了五万多个岗位，而当时公司是盈利的，赚了大量的钱。这些裁员被认为是抬高公司股价所必需的，而公司股价也因此大幅飙升。

During my tenure at one of the largest corporations in the world (more than 160,000 employees at the time), I witnessed how scores of the best engineers and technicians were escorted out of the building under the auspices of layoff. The first round of layoffs which eliminated more than fifty thousand jobs was done at a time when the company was profitable and making lots of money. The layoffs were necessary to boost the stock prices of the company which have soared over the roof.

我承认这些只是故事、直觉和内心的感觉。那么，如果说有失败的迹象，它们在哪里呢？毕竟，资本主义在过去经历过多次衰退、萧条、经济下行、生产率低迷和企业倒闭，但它总是重新变得强劲，甚至更加强大。为什么这一次会有所不同？

I admit that these are just stories, instincts, and guts feelings. So where are the signs of failure if there are any? After all, capitalism has gone through several rounds of recessions, depressions, downturns, low productivity, and corporate failures in the past. It has always emerged as strong or even stronger. Why is it different this time?

如前所述,缺陷或瑕疵不一定会产生错误;错误也不一定导致失效。只有当某些条件出现并触发该缺陷时,才会产生错误。错误是对系统正常行为的偏离。如果该错误被恰当地观察到、检测到、隔离并加以遏制,那么失效就可以避免。正如任何物理系统一样,从错误或系统正常行为的偏离中恢复并非自动完成;要恢复系统并防止失效,必须正确识别和隔离问题并正确地加以遏制,这是绝对必要的。

As explained earlier, faults or defects do not necessarily generate errors. And errors do not necessarily lead to failure. A fault generates an error only when certain conditions occur and trigger that fault. Only then an error occurs. An error is a deviation from the normal behavior of the system. If the error is observed, detected, isolated, and contained properly, then failure could be avoided. Just like in any physical system, the recovery from an error or a deviation from the normal behavior of the system is not automatic; a correct identification and isolation of the problems and a correct containment is absolute necessity to restore the system and to prevent failure.

1929年的大萧条是经济和整个市场的一种失常表现。股市崩盘，许多人失去了土地、农场、住房和公司。经过数年的经济重建，以及一场大战（第二次世界大战），市场的失常行为才得到遏制，体系才恢复正常运转。导致大萧条的各种情况（即经济的失常行为）与股票价值的虚高有关，《经济学人》杂志在1929年11月2日的报道中指出：“有理由期望，美国股票价值这个被夸大的气球的放气，将对世界有益。”据报道，1925年至1929年间，金融市场的价格上涨了120%，而同一时期的经济增长未超过17%。市场崩盘时，其价值损失超过93%，这意味着市场回归了真实的正常价值，而这一价值显然远低于股市所显示的水平。

The great depression of the 1929 was an erroneous behavior of the economy and the market at large. The stock market collapsed; many people lost their lands, farms, homes, and companies. It took several years of rebuilding the economy and a great war (World War II) to contain the erroneous behavior of the market and to resume a normal functioning of the system. The conditions which led to the depression (i.e., the erroneous behavior of the economy) were related to inflated stock values as reported by the Economist magazine on November 2, 1929: “There is warrant for hoping that the deflation of the exaggerated balloon of American stock values will be for the good of the world”134. It was reported that the prices of financial market increased during the period between 1925 and 1929 by 120%, while economic growth for the same period has not exceeded 17%. And when the market has collapsed, it lost over 93% of its value, which means that the market returned to its real normal value which was obviously much lower than what the stock market had indicated.

1987年，市场再次崩盘，又发生了一次市场失误。观察人士指出，金融市场的价格相较于经济的实际规模已大幅膨胀，膨胀后的价值与实际价值之间的差距超过200%。要遏制这种错误行为的影响，又花了一场大规模战争。由老布什（乔治·布什，父）领导的海湾战争帮助遏制了这一问题，使经济恢复到正常运行状态。

Another market error occurred in 1987 when the market collapsed again. Observers noted that the prices of financial market had inflated significantly compared with the real size of the economy, where the difference between the inflated values and the real ones was more than 200%. It took another war of large magnitude to contain the effects of this erroneous behavior. The Gulf War led by George Bush, the father, helped contain the problem and bring the economy back to its normal behavior.

1999年，经济又因所谓的“互联网泡沫”破裂而产生了另一个错误，市场损失了数千亿虚拟美元。经济正滑向陡峭的下跌。于是再次启动了遏制程序：一场旷日持久的战争！这一次，战争并未成功遏制错误或结束危机。相反，以打击恐怖主义为名对阿富汗和伊拉克发动的战争，加剧了危机，并加深了金融问题。到2008年时，危机已达到严重的顶峰。仅美国一国就有超过1.5万亿美元的大规模政府干预被迅速投入，以援救一个正在衰败的经济。许多学者争相宣告一个时代的终结，即自由资本主义的时代。

In 1999, the economy generated another error when the so called “Internet bubble” was deflated and the market lost hundreds of billions of virtual dollars. The economy was heading to a steep dive. The containment procedure was invoked again: a lengthy war! This time the war did not succeed in containing the error or ending the crisis. On the contrary, the wars launched in the name of fighting terrorism against Afghanistan and Iraq fueled up the crisis and deepened the financial problems. By the time the year 2008 arrived, the crisis had reached a serious peak. A massive government intervention with more than $1.5 trillion in the United States alone was rushed to the aid of a failing economy. Scores of scholars rushed to declare an end of an era, the era of liberal capitalism.

虽然当前危机的根本原因与以往的危机并无显著不同,但导致当前危机的条件、危机运作的环境以及遏制程序都有了显著的变化。两种主要现象成为近期这场金融危机的突出标志,它们有可能使资本主义的政治经济体系崩溃。第一种是在实体经济之外出现了与之并行的虚拟经济。第二种是政府大规模收购私营银行、保险公司、汽车工业、房地产等。这两种现象将在接下来的小节中进行讨论。

Although the root causes of the current crisis are not significantly different from the previous ones, the conditions which led to the current crisis and the environment in which it functioned, as well as the containment procedures, are significantly different. Two major phenomena emerged as prominent signs of the most recent financial crisis, which have the capacity of collapsing the political economy of capitalism. The first is the creation of virtual economy parallel to the real economy. The second one is a massive government buyout of private banks, insurance companies, auto industry, real estate, and more. These two phenomena will be discussed in the next subsections.