除了金本位制符合伊斯兰教法这一点之外,它还有若干益处。若加以考虑,金本位制便可成为整个国际社会可行的全球标准。纵观货币史,直到第一次世界大战之前,全世界都实行金本位和银本位。在此之前,世界上并不知晓其他任何标准。战争的沉重代价,以及战后仍然持续的帝国主义殖民世界事务,导致了金本位制的崩溃,纸币在没有黄金或白银储备支撑的情况下被引入。认识到金本位制对金融和经济稳定的重要性,若干欧洲国家和美国于1933年曾试图恢复金本位制,但在经济大萧条的沉重压力下失败了。第二次世界大战结束时,美国、欧洲及其他若干国家一致认为,金本位制对全球经济的稳定、进而对世界和平至关重要,随后签署了《布雷顿森林协定》。141
Besides the fact that the gold standard is an Islamically lawful rule, it has several benefits, which if considered, would make the gold standard a viable global standard for the world community at large. Throughout the history of money and up until the First World War, the whole world operated the gold and silver standards. No other standards were known to the world until then. The heavy cost of the war and the imperial colonial world affairs which persisted after the war led to the collapse of the gold standard and the introduction of paper money with no gold or silver backup. Realizing the importance of the gold standard for the financial and economic stability, several European countries and the United States tried in 1933 to restore the gold standard but failed under the heavy pressure of depression. At the end of the Second World War, the United States and Europe and several other nations concurred that a gold standard is essential to the stability of the global economy and hence to world peace and subsequently signed the Bretton Woods Agreement.141
1971年,美国单方面废除了金本位制,迫使几乎所有其他国家改为持有美元而非黄金储备。自二十世纪七十年代起,就不断有人呼吁建立一个经过改革的国际体系,以应对不受约束的资本流动问题。然而,直到2008年末,这一想法才开始获得主要政治领导人的实质性支持。2008年9月26日,法国总统尼古拉·萨科齐说:“我们必须像布雷顿森林会议时那样,从零开始重新思考金融体系。”142 2008年10月13日,英国首相戈登·布朗表示,世界领导人必须会晤,就一种新的经济体系达成一致:“我们必须有一个新的布雷顿森林体系,为未来几年构建新的国际金融架构。”143 毫无疑问,金本位制对全球社会有诸多益处。这些益处包括以下几点:
In 1971, the United States unilaterally abrogated the gold standard and forced almost every other nation to stack US dollars instead of gold reserves. Since the seventies, there have been numerous calls for a revamped international system to tackle the problem of unfettered capital flows. However, it wasn’t until late 2008 that this idea began to receive substantial support from leading politicians. On September 26, 2008, French president Nicolas Sarkozy said, “We must rethink the financial system from scratch, as at Bretton Woods.”142 On October 13, 2008, British prime minister Gordon Brown said world leaders must meet to agree to a new economic system: “We must have a new Bretton Woods, building a new international financial architecture for the years ahead.”143 Undoubtedly, the gold standard has numerous benefits for the global community. These benefits include the following:
1. 黄金本位要求黄金能够自由流通、进口和出口,从而带来货币、金融与经济的稳定。
1. The gold basis necessitates the free circulation, import and export of gold, which leads to monetary, financial, and economic stability.
2. 金本位确保了各国货币之间汇率的稳定(依据布雷顿森林体系,波动幅度不超过5%)。这种稳定进而推动了国际贸易的繁荣,因为贸易商不再担心对外贸易扩张时可能出现的货币储备价值损失。
2. The gold standard ensures the stability of exchange rates between the currencies of various countries (less than 5% variation per Bretton Woods). This stability in turn leads to a boom in international trade, for traders would no longer fear the expansion of foreign trade, with potential loss of money reserve values.
金本位制能够防止虚拟货币财富的爆炸性增长,因为中央银行和政府会克制,不去印发过量的纸币。当局会担心,如果发行纸币超出限度,人们对黄金的需求就会增加,而它们将无法满足这一需求。因此,它们总会倾向于在所发行的纸币数量与黄金储备之间保持合理的比例。
The gold standard prevents the explosion of virtual monetary 3. 4. wealth because central banks and governments would refrain from printing excessive amount of banknotes money. The authorities would fear that if they exceeded limits in issuing banknotes, the demand for gold would increase and they would not be able to meet this demand. Therefore, they would always tend to maintain a reasonable ratio between what they issue in terms of banknotes and gold reserves.
在金本位制下,由于各国货币之间实行固定汇率,资金、商品和劳动力在各国之间的流动会变得更加容易。硬通货管制所施加的限制将随之消失,从而促成更加稳定的全球贸易。
Under gold standard, the movements of money, goods, and labor across countries would become easier due to the fixed exchange rates between currencies of various countries. The constraints imposed by hard currency regulations would disappear, giving rise to a more stable global trade.
在金本位制下,黄金只在各国之间因贸易而流动,由此消除了黄金走私从一国流向另一国的动机,从而有助于保持每个国家的黄金储备。
The gold standard would help preserve the gold preserve in each 5. country by eliminating the incentives for gold smuggling from one country to another. Gold moves between countries only as a result of trade.
国际贸易不会因汇率波动而受到影响。这为所有国家提供了一个更加平衡和公平的贸易环境。
International trade will not suffer due to currency exchange 6. rate fluctuations. This provides a more balanced and fair trade environment for all nations.
这些是金本位制的一些好处。因此,伊斯兰教坚持回归金本位,符合自然的金融规范,理应获得全球的认可。直到第一次世界大战之前,这一直是通行的标准;当时,全世界都在金本位制下运行金融体系。第一次世界大战爆发之初,世界上最普遍的货币制度是以金本位为基础的,当时流通的货币实际上是金币以及可随时按等值黄金兑换的纸币。银本位也与金本位并行存在。这一标准的实施促进了富有成效且稳定的全球经济关系。
These are some of the benefits of the gold standard. Thus the Islamic insistence to return to the gold standard is in line with the natural financial norms and should be met with global appreciation. This was the normal standard up until the First World War, when the whole world was operating the financial system under the gold standard. At the start of the First World War, the most prevailing monetary system in the world was based on the gold standard, and money in circulation at the time was in fact gold coins and paper money readily exchangeable for their equivalent value in gold. The silver standard also operated alongside the gold standard. The implementation of this standard facilitated productive and stable global economic relations.
当黄金本位制在全世界范围内实行时,它并未出现任何严重问题。相反,问题是在黄金本位制被破坏、最终被废除并被不可兑换的纸币所取代之后才开始出现的。更糟的是,世界超级大国开始将其货币用作对其他国家进行战争的武器。第二次世界大战后崛起、成为全球最大经济体的美国,迫使美元扮演此前由黄金所扮演的角色,作为货币体系的基础。
When the gold standard was applied throughout the whole world, it did not experience any serious problems. On the contrary, problems began to rise when the gold standard was violated and eventually removed and then replaced by nonexchangeable paper money. Worst of all, the world superpowers began to use their currency as a weapon in their warfare against other nations. The United States, emerging after the Second World War as the largest global economy, forced the US dollar to play the role previously played by gold as a basis for the monetary system.
回归金本位,尽管有诸多预期的益处,仍可能面临来自当初废除金本位和银本位的国家的严峻挑战。美国已经建立起了规模庞大的金融巨头,其持有的虚拟财富达数百万亿美元,价值是全球黄金储备总量的数倍。如此巨大的虚拟财富的存在,构成了对回归金本位的最严重挑战。据估计,地表以上的全球黄金储备总量约为15万吨。以本书撰写此部分时的金价每盎司1150美元计算,全部黄金的美元价值约为5.4万亿美元。这还不到美国外债总额(估计为14万亿美元)的40%。美国的黄金储备不到8200吨,价值不足3000亿美元,因此其黄金储备勉强只能覆盖其全部债务的2%左右。由此可见,美国为回归金本位之路设置了一道坚固而高耸的屏障。
The return to a gold standard, despite all the expected benefits, may face serious challenges from the states which demolished the gold and silver standard in the first place. The United States had built virtually large financial giants with hundreds of trillions of dollars whose value exceed multiple times the entire world reserve of gold. The existence of such huge virtual wealth poses the most serious challenge to the return of gold standard. The total gold reserve in the world above the ground is estimated at 150,000 tons. At the current price of gold, $1,150 at the time of writing this part of the book, the total dollar value of the gold is $5.4 trillion. This is less than 40% of the total US foreign debt (estimated at $14 trillion). The United States has less than 8,200 tons of gold which is worth less than $300 billion. So the US gold reserve is barely enough to cover 2% of its total debt. Thus, the United States has created a strong and high barrier in the path of a return to gold standard.
另一个挑战在于,黄金可能流向那些已经成为商品、专业技术、服务和制造工具储存地的国家。中国和印度就是这类国家的好例子。如今,中国和印度通过由工厂、外包公司和专家组成的网络,为世界提供了大部分消费品和服务。如果不经过审慎考虑就回归金本位,黄金将会积累在少数国家的国库中,例如中国、印度、德国和日本。当然,拥有大量石油、天然气等原材料和能源资源的国家,其市场也可能出现黄金流入。
Another challenge is the potential flow of gold into the direction of states which have turned into a reservoir of goods, expertise, services, and manufacturing tools. China and India are good examples of such countries. Today, China and India provide the world with most of the consuming goods and services through a network of factories, outsourcing companies, and experts. A return to gold standard without careful consideration would lead to the accumulation of gold in the treasury of few states such as China, India, Germany, and Japan. Of course countries with large supplies of raw materials and energy resources like oil and gas can also see a flux of gold into their markets.
对黄金集中化(黄金积聚于少数国家手中)的担忧,可能促使许多国家实施更多保护主义政策,以保护其黄金储备。保护措施可以采取高关税、高额海关税以及出口和进口限制等形式。为了消除这种担忧、避免集中化,在恢复金本位的早期阶段应当鼓励以物易物式的商品和服务交换方式。例如,拥有丰富矿产、石油和天然气等原材料的国家,可以用这些产品交换其他国家生产的工业制成品和食品。此外,实行金本位的国家也会被鼓励减少对进口的依赖,通过增加本国生产并在本地满足基本需求。最终,在采用金本位的同时努力保护国家黄金储备,将带来更加平衡的国际贸易,国家之间的贸易逆差也将随之减少。只有在少数国家采用金本位、而其他许多国家仍依赖既无黄金也无白银作支撑的货币体系时,实施金本位的挑战才更有可能出现。
The fear of gold polarization (accumulation of gold in the hands of a few states) may potentially lead to the implementation of more protectionist policies by many states in order to protect their reserve of gold. Protection can take the form of high rate tariffs, high custom taxes, and export and import restrictions among other policies. In order to calm down this fear and avoid polarization, barterlike methods of goods and services exchange should be encouraged at the earlier stage of the return to the gold standard. For example, states with abundance of raw materials such as minerals, oil, and gas can exchange these products for manufactured goods and food from states which produce these goods. Also, the states which use the gold standard will be encouraged to reduce their dependence on imports by increasing their own local production and satisfying their basic needs locally. Eventually, the adoption of a gold standard while striving to preserve the national gold reserve will lead to a more balanced international trade and the trade deficits between nations will decrease. The challenges to the implementation of gold standard are more likely to occur only if few states adopt the gold standard, while many others continue to rely on monetary systems not supported by either gold or silver.
伊斯兰国家在实行金本位制时,预计不会面临严峻的挑战,因为该国将拥有世界上最大的石油和天然气储量。该国可以轻松地用石油和天然气换取制成品和服务。伊斯兰国家的政治经济也要求在基本生活必需品的生产上实现自给自足,尤其是食品、药品和教育。此外,该国的工业政策要求建立重工业基础,以提供生产所需的机械设备和工具。这些政策将有助于国家实现较高程度的自给自足,减少对进口的依赖,从而有助于保全其黄金储备。伊斯兰国家境内蕴藏着世界上一些最大的金矿,预计能够持续提供黄金,从而使恢复金本位制更加切实可行。
The Islamic state is not expected to face serious challenges when implementing the gold standard since the state will reside over the largest reserves of oil and gas in the world. The state can easily exchange oil and gas for manufactured products and services. The political economy of the Islamic state also calls for self-sufficiency in the production of the basic needs, particularly food, medicine, and education. Furthermore, the industrial policy of the state calls for the creation of heavy industrial base which provides the necessary machining and tools for production. These policies will help the state become rather self-sufficient and less dependent on imports which in turn helps to preserve its gold reserves. The Islamic lands host some of the largest gold mines in the world, which is expected to provide a continuous source of gold, thus making the return to gold standard much more feasible.
尽管迫切需要以黄金和白银为基础的货币体系,而且数十位政治家和经济学家屡次呼吁回归金本位,但在当前条件下,并在资本主义世界秩序的规则之下,这一回归并不指望能够实现。回归金本位需要各国及其领导层拥有勇气和决心。原因在于,回归金本位可能被许多人视为对当前国际金融秩序的挑战,从而将损害那些从现行秩序中获益最多的国家的利益。的确,发行货币并以黄金和白银作为储备支撑,需要极大的魄力、勇气和决心。事实上,不顾一切困难与挑战而坚决回归金本位,需要一种意识形态上的坚定承诺,它使实施金本位成为必要而非选择,成为义务而非恩惠。
Despite the urgent need of a monetary system based on gold and silver, and the repeated calls for the return to gold standard by scores of politicians and economists, this return is not expected to occur within the current conditions and under the rules of capitalist world order. The return to the gold standard requires courage and determination by states and their leadership. That is because the return to a gold standard could be perceived by many as defiance to the current financial world order, and thus would pose a challenge to the interests of the countries which benefit the most of the current order. Indeed, it takes a great deal of valor, courage and determination to issue currency and back it by gold and silver. In fact, a decisive return to the gold standard despite all difficulties and challenges requires an ideological commitment, which makes the implementation of the gold standard a necessity rather than an option and an obligation rather than a courtesy.
因为以金银为基础的货币在伊斯兰教法学中构成一项法律,因此可以认为,在当今世界的局势下,伊斯兰国的兴起是建立以金银为基础的新货币体系的唯一可行希望。我们目睹了法国、英国、印度和中国等主要国家呼吁建立以黄金为基础的货币体系,但没有一个国家拥有足够的勇气和意识形态上的坚定信念来将其呼吁付诸实践。
Because the gold and silver based currency constitutes a law under the Islamic jurisprudence, it can be argued that under the current world conditions, the rise of the Islamic state is the only viable hope for the rise of a new monetary system based on gold and silver. We have witnessed major countries like France, Britain, India, and China calling for a monetary system based on gold, but none had the sufficient courage and the ideological commitment to carry through their call.
意识形态上的承诺很容易融入伊斯兰教法的规定之中。如前文所论证的,以黄金和白银作为货币制度的基础,是一项伊斯兰教法规定,伊斯兰国家的执政者无权推翻。这属于沙里亚法的组成部分。此外,金本位在伊斯兰国家实行所面临的挑战,总体而言少于其他任何国家,原因在于该国本身具有丰厚的内在财富。在伊斯兰国家兴起的第一阶段,可能会存在一些挑战。但一旦该国通过统一众多伊斯兰土地、变得更加自给自足,达到其预期的稳定状态,这些挑战就会逐步消失。从长远来看,金本位将成为伊斯兰金融体系的力量与稳定之源,并将促使许多其他国家效仿伊斯兰国家的道路,转而采用金本位。
The ideological commitment is readily embedded within the rules of Islam. As argued earlier, the use of gold and silver as a base for the monetary system is an Islamic rule which cannot be overruled by the executives of the Islamic state. This is part of the Shari’ah laws. Moreover, the challenges of the implementation of the gold standard within the Islamic state are, by and large, less than those for any other state, due to the inherent wealth of the state. There could be some challenges during the first phase of the rise of the Islamic state. However, once the state reaches its expected steady state by unifying many of the Islamic lands and becoming more self-sufficient, the challenges will begin to disappear. On the long run, the gold standard will become a source of power and stability for the Islamic financial system, which will encourage many other states to follow the course of the Islamic state and convert to a gold standard.