2. 世界人口过多
2. The world is over populated
现代对人类群体遗传结构的研究表明,大约15,000年前,世界人口为1500万(大致相当于今天印度德里的人口)。到两千多年前耶稣(Isa)的时代,世界人口增至2.5亿(大致相当于今天印度尼西亚的人口)。到18世纪工业革命前夕,世界人口已增至约7亿,增长了两倍(接近今天欧洲的人口规模)。此后的两个世纪里,全球人口以每年6%的速度增长,到1950年达到25亿;随后的50年间,人口翻了一番多,增长率达到18%,并在21世纪来临之际达到60亿。尽管增长率正在放缓,但除非发生某种人口灾难,世界人口应当会在2050年达到90亿。截至2008年9月,世界人口为67.2亿。
Modern research on the genetic structure of human populations suggests that nearly 15,000 years ago the world population was 15 million (the present population of Delhi, India). The population by the time of Jesus (Isa) over 2000 years ago had increased to 250 million (about the same as present day Indonesia). On the eve of the industrial revolution in the 18th century world population had tripled to about 700 million (nearly the size of current day Europe). In the two centuries that followed, the global population increased at an annual rate of 6% reaching 2.5 billion by 1950 and more than doubled in the next 50 years at a rate of 18% to reach 6 billion on the eve of the 21st century. Although growth rates are slowing, barring some demographic catastrophe the world population should reach 9 billion by 2050. The current population of the world stands as of September 2008 at 6.72 billion.
上个世纪人口增长的速度被认为是世界濒临灾难的根本原因;有人认为,我们正面临粮食不足以供养如此庞大人口的局面。人口过剩论的支持者主张,世界人口的巨大增长是贫困、环境破坏和社会动荡的根源,只要人口继续增长,第三世界的经济发展就无从实现。因此,国际机构和各国政府在第三世界制定并实施了大量旨在遏制人口增长速度的计划。
The rate of population growth over the last century has been labelled as the underlying cause of the world standing on the brink of disaster; it is argued we are running out of food to sustain such a growing population. It is argued by the proponents of overpopulation that the huge growth in world population is responsible for poverty, environmental destruction and social unrest and that economic development in the third world is impossible as long as populations continue to grow. As a result international agencies and governments have developed and implemented numerous programmes in the third world to curtail the rate of population growth.
这种所谓的人口过剩,必须相对于某种东西才能被定义为“过多”。这个东西就是资源的使用。由此导致的全球失衡,被归咎于人口规模。
This alleged overpopulation has to be in relation to something to qualify it being over. That something is the use of resources. The resources being consumed leading to global imbalances are attributed to population sizes.
然而,当对人口增长影响的所有假设都经过审视后,人口增长实际上从未导致当今世界的诸多弊病。由此可见,将全球人口增长归咎为世界潜在灾难之根源,背后有着明确的政治议程。这一议程旨在将真正的原因转移开来——即生活方式、居住模式、消费主义的不可持续性、贫困,以及对第三世界公然的剥削——以便西方世界能够依靠第三世界而生存。
However, when all assumptions on the effects of population growth are scrutinised population increase in no way has ever contributed to the many ills of the world today and what becomes clear is that there is a clear political agenda in attributing the increasing global population as the cause of the worlds potential disaster. This agenda is to shift the real cause away from the lifestyles, living patterns, un-sustainability of consumerism, poverty and blatant abuse of the third world in order that the Western world can live off the third world.
2007年世界人口
World Population 2007
1. 世界 6.7b
1. World 6.7b
2. 亚洲 3.9b
2. Asia 3.9b
3. 中国 13亿
3. China 1.3b
4. 印度 1.1b
4. India 1.1b
5. 非洲 8.87亿
5. Africa 887m
6. 欧洲 774m
6. Europe 774m
7. 拉丁美洲 5.58亿
7. Latin America 558m
8. 北美洲 3.32亿
8. North America 332m
9. 美国 3.04亿
9. US 304m
10. 印度尼西亚 2.31亿
10. Indonesia 231m
11. 巴西 1.87亿
11. Brazil 187m
12. 巴基斯坦 1.63亿
12. Pakistan 163m
13. 孟加拉国 1.58亿
13. Bangladesh 158m
联合国经济和社会事务部——人口司
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs – Population Division
发达国家同样面临一个非常严峻的难题:日本、俄罗斯、德国、瑞士以及东欧的大部分地区都在经历人口下降,原因是出生人数大幅减少。
The developed world also faces a very serious conundrum; Japan, Russia, Germany, Switzerland and much of Eastern Europe are experiencing population decline, due to a huge reduction in births.
西方世界其他地区若没有移民,人口也会下降。随着西方的人口数量相对于第三世界和穆斯林国家而言不断减少,这些国家将有合理的权利,基于其人口数量,要求在所谓的国际机构中拥有更大的发言权,并在国际组织中获得更多的代表席位。人口过剩问题是一种非常有用的工具,用来诋毁人口不断增长的国家,同时保护西方可能失去的未来影响力。土耳其加入欧盟的问题就清楚地说明了这一点:土耳其拥有近7000万人口,一旦加入欧盟,它将在欧洲议会中获得仅次于德国的议员席位数。此外,人口预测显示,到2020年,土耳其在议席数量上将超过德国。土耳其的加入将对欧盟未来的发展方向产生广泛影响,包括棘手的未来扩员计划问题,法国的瓦勒里·吉斯卡尔·德斯坦正是以此为由反对土耳其入盟。德斯坦曾表示,土耳其入盟将导致摩洛哥也提出入盟要求。
The rest of the Western world would also have declining populations were it not for immigration. As population numbers decline in the West relative to the third world and Muslim nations, such countries will have a legitimate right based upon their numbers to demand greater say in so called international institutes and representation on international bodies. The issue of overpopulation is a very useful tool to vilify nations with rising populations and at the same time protecting its potential loss of future influence. This can be seen clearly with Turkish EU accession; upon joining the EU, Turkey's almost 70 million inhabitants would bestow it the second largest number of MEP’s in the European Parliament. In addition, demographic projections indicate Turkey would surpass Germany in the number of seats by 2020. Turkey's membership would have wide ranging consequences for the future direction of the EU including the thorny issue of future enlargement plans, grounds by which Valéry Giscard d'Estaing of France has opposed Turkey's admission.5 D’Estaing has suggested that it would lead to demands for accession by Morocco.
虽然对于英国为何成为世界上第一个实现工业化的国家,学界并无定论,但其原因通常被认为可能包括八个因素,其中之一是人口增长。1707年与苏格兰合并之后,英国人口为650万;一个世纪后,这一数字翻了一番,超过了1600万。更重要的是,大部分增长发生在1750年之后,那是英国历史上最大规模的人口激增之一。这一增长至关重要,因为它扩大了潜在的劳动力队伍,也增加了商品的消费者。
Although there is no consensus as to why the first nation in the world to industrialise was Britain, its causes are generally accepted as potentially eight factors, one of them being the growth in population. Following the union with Scotland in 1707, the British population stood at 6.5 million; a century later it had doubled to well over 16 million. More importantly, most of that growth had taken place after 1750 in one of the greatest population explosions in British history. This increase was critical as it increased the potential labour force and consumers of commodities.
中国和印度也证明了庞大的人口是一件好事。尽管两国在西方的影响下推行了人口削减计划,却未能遏制人口增长的速度,然而两国又是世界上增长最快的经济体,这与人口过剩的观点相矛盾,该观点认为人口越多,资源消耗就越多。
China and India have also proven that a large population is a good thing. Despite implementing programmes of population reduction under the influence of the West, China and India have been unable to curtail the rate of population growth and yet both represent the fastest growing economies in the world, which contradicts the overpopulation view that more means more resources being depleted.
Reference: 地缘政治神话 - Adnan Khan