20世纪初，德国与英国争夺全球霸权的斗争，促使两国寻找替代燃料，以驱动其笨重的以煤为基础的战争机器。

The struggle for global supremacy between Germany and Britain at the beginning of the 20th century drove them to search for alternative fuels to power their bulky coal based war machines.

20世纪初中东油田的发现，推动了一个世纪的新技术发展，形成了新的社会结构和消费模式，并改变了全球的权力格局。

The discovery of oil fields in the Middle East in the early 20th century spurred a century of new technologies, created new patterns of society and consumption and changed the global balance of power.

化石燃料本质上是有限的，终将枯竭。在20世纪的大部分时间里，这从来不是一个讨论的话题，因为世界上大部分石油仍未被发现。战斗机、坦克和汽车等技术都是为使用石油而设计的，如果石油日渐枯竭，那么除了油价飙升之外，这些技术也将变得过时。

Fossil fuels by their nature are limited and will eventually diminish. For most of the 20th century this was never a discussion as most of the world’s oil was still undiscovered. With technologies such as the fighter jet, tanks and automobiles all designed to run on oil, if oil is drying up then apart from oil prices exploding, such technologies would also become redundant.

“石油峰值”一词最早出现在上世纪70年代，它是一种理论，用来推算全球已知石油储量中有一半被开采出来的那个时间点。

‘Peak oil’ was first introduced in the 1970’s; it is a theory which calculates the point where half of the worlds known oil reserves have been pumped.

要预测未来的石油产量，需要三个关键数字。第一，迄今为止已开采石油的总量，即累计产量。第二，储量估计值，也就是企业能够从已知油田中开采出来、直到不得不弃置这些油田之前所能采出的数量。第三，必须对仍有待发现和开发的常规石油数量做出一个有根据的估计。这三者相加，就得出最终可采量，即在许多十年之后石油生产停止时，总共将被开采出的桶数。

There are three vital numbers that are needed to project future oil production. Firstly, the tally of how much oil has been extracted to date, a figure known as the cumulative production. The second is an estimate of reserves; the amount that companies can pump out of known fields before having to abandon them. Finally, one must make an educated guess at the quantity of conventional oil that remains to be discovered and exploited. Together they add up to the ultimate recovery i.e. the total number of barrels that will have been extracted when production ceases many decades from now.

理解石油产量峰值日期最简单的方法，就是看石油产量是否已经超过石油发现量。最有力的证据是，石油的发现量实际上在20世纪60年代就已经达到峰值。最近一个大型油田是1985年在墨西哥发现的，而如今大多数产油国的成熟油田都发现于20世纪50年代。全球现在的石油消费量是新发现石油储量的四倍。石油公司正耗费巨资寻找新的石油储量，但他们发现的油田越来越小，因此产油量也越来越少。随着新发现日益减少，当前的石油生产正在耗尽这种“黑金”的最后储备。

The easiest way to comprehend an understanding of peaking dates is to see if production of oil has outstripped oil discoveries. The most damning evidence for this is that oil discoveries actually peaked in the 1960’s. The most recent large oil field was discovered in Mexico in 1985, while the majority of today’s producers have mature fields that were discovered in the 1950’s. The world now consumes four times the quantity of oil as is found. The oil companies are spending a fortune on trying to find new oil reserves, but the ones that they find are getting smaller and smaller, and therefore produce less oil. With diminishing discoveries the current production of oil is depleting the last reserves of the black gold.

一些过于乐观的预测给出的石油产量峰值日期可晚至2060年，但对全球石油产量何时见顶最可靠的估计，则介于现在与2012年之间。如果全球产量注定很快开始下降，那么我们应当已经看到一些国家已达到峰值，或即将达到峰值。在前七大石油生产国中，有六个处于产量下降或接近峰值的状态。美国于1971年见顶，挪威于2001年见顶，英国于1998年见顶。俄罗斯、墨西哥和中国预计将于2008年见顶。沙特阿拉伯也可能已于2005年见顶。在前七大生产国中，唯一明显具备增产能力的国家是伊朗。

Some overly optimistic predictions give peaking dates up to the year 2060, but the most reliable estimates for when global oil production will peak vary from between now and 2012. If production is meant to start diminishing worldwide very soon, then we should already see countries that have reached their peaks or are just about to reach their peak. Of the top seven oil producers, six are in decline or near peak production. USA peaked 1971, Norway peaked 2001, and the UK peaked in 1998. Russia, Mexico and China are forecast to peak in 2008. It is also possible that Saudi Arabia peaked in 2005. The only one of the top seven producers that has clear capability to increase production is Iran.

有许多其他因素支持早期见顶的论点。大型石油公司（例如壳牌）发现，要补充储量并弥补此前对储量的高估，正变得越来越困难。

There are a number of other factors that support the early peak argument. Major oil companies (e.g. Shell) are finding it difficult to replace reserves and to backfill previous reserve over-estimates.

石油行业的整合通过合并现有储量，掩盖了储量短缺的问题。英国石油公司（BP）等石油公司已转而通过在老油田（如俄罗斯）的生产协议来补充储量，而不是单纯依靠勘探。勘探投资正在下降。沙特阿拉伯主要油田的技术反馈表明，其枯竭程度很高。美国针对中东、阿富汗、独联体国家、印度、中国及亚洲各国的外交政策，显示出其正在疯狂地寻找石油和天然气。

Oil industry consolidation hides reserve shortages by combining existing reserves. Oil companies such as BP have resorted to replacing reserves through production agreements on old fields (e.g. Russia) rather than pure exploration. Investment in exploration is falling. Technical feedback from the state of major Saudi Arabian oil fields indicates a high level of depletion. US foreign policy visà-vis the Middle East, Afghanistan, CIS, India, China and Asian states indicates frantic scouring for oil and gas.

正是这些原因使"石油峰值"进入了主流视野，而"世界正在耗尽石油"的观点也被视为世界大国的地缘政治难题。然而实际上，这一论点掩盖了一系列更深层的政治问题。

It is these reasons that have allowed peak oil to enter the mainstream and the view that the world is running out of oil is considered a geopolitical headache for the world’s powers. However in reality this argument masks a number of deeper political issues.

"世界正在耗尽石油"这一说法，为西方的过度消费提供了一个方便的借口，因为减少消费被视为终极禁忌。随着越来越多的国家争相抢夺日益减少的石油供应，西方的问题暴露无遗。西方世界消耗了21世纪最重要资源的50%，而其产量却不到四分之一。导致能源危机的，与其说是石油正在枯竭，不如说是过度消费。

The world is running out of oil is a convenient excuse for the West’s over consumption, since to reduce consumption is considered the ultimate taboo. As more and more nations scramble for the ever dwindling supply of oil, this has exposed the West. The Western world consumes 50% of the 21st century’s most important resource but produced less then a quarter of it. It is over consumption rather than the fact that oil is depleting that is causing the energy crisis.

美国实际只生产了全世界约8%的石油，却消耗了其中约25%。西方如此巨大的消耗从来不可持续；这是因为西方的每日所需，主要依赖于数量相对较少的几个巨型油田。世界上虽有数以万计的在产油田，但其中日产超过十万桶的只有116个，它们贡献了全球产量的50%。在这些油田中，除少数几个外，其余都是在二十五年多以前发现的，而且大多数都显示出产能下降的迹象。事实上，世界上一些最大的油田，包括沙特阿拉伯的加瓦尔油田、科威特的布尔甘油田、墨西哥的坎塔雷尔油田和俄罗斯的萨莫特洛尔油田，如今似乎已经或即将进入衰退。这些巨型油田的衰退非常重要。要弥补它们损失的产量，就需要数以千计的小型油田提高产出，而没有任何证据表明这是哪怕略微可能实现的。

The US specifically produced only 8% of the world’s oil but consumes 25% of it. Such huge consumption by the West is never sustainable; this is because the West essentially has relied on a relatively small number of mammoth fields for the lion’s share of their daily intake. Though the world possesses tens of thousands of operating fields, only 116 of them produce more than 100,000 barrels per day and they account for 50% of global output. Of these, all but a handful were discovered more than a quarter of a century ago, and most are showing signs of diminished capacity. Indeed, some of the world’s largest fields – including Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, Burgan in Kuwait, Cantarell in Mexico, and Samotlor in Russia – appear to be now in decline or about to become so. The decline of these giant fields matters greatly. Compensating for their lost output will take increased yield at thousands of smaller fields, and there is no evidence that this is even remotely possible.

随着美国的能源消费持续增长，对日益减少的能源资源的争夺将会加剧。

As US consumption continues to rise, the competition for dwindling energy sources will intensify.

这将使穆斯林土地变得更加重要，就像伊拉克一样，为了稳定的石油供应，占领或许是有正当理由的。尽管石油正在枯竭，但这是由于西方的消费模式造成的，而非石油本身数量不足。

This will make the Muslim lands even more important and as with Iraq, occupation may well be justified for stable supplies of the black gold. Although oil is running out, it is due to Western consumption patterns rather then there merely being too little oil.