迪拜被誉为经济成功的典范，也被视为穆斯林世界经济发展的新模式。迪拜拥有460亿美元的经济规模，在相对较短的时间内，凭借创新的房地产项目和体育赛事吸引了全球的关注。许多经济学家强调，迪拜摆脱对石油的依赖，实现了经济多元化，使其走上了一条发展道路，这为该地区提供了一种新的经济发展模式，也是一种独具伊斯兰特色的经济发展路径。

Dubai has been heralded as an economic success story and a new model for economic development for the Muslim world. Dubai with its $46 billion economy has attracted world-wide attention through innovative real estate projects and sports events in a relatively short period of time. Many economists have emphasized that Dubai’s diversification away from oil has placed it upon a path of development which presents a new formula for economic development for the region and a distinctly Islamic approach to economic development.

波斯湾战争之后的石油收入促使迪拜把重心放在自由贸易和旅游业上。杰贝阿里自由区的成功使这座城市得以复制其模式，发展出一批新的自由区，包括迪拜互联网城、迪拜媒体城和迪拜海事城。世界上最高的独立式酒店迪拜帆船酒店的建成，以及新住宅项目的兴建，都被用来推销迪拜的旅游业。自2002年以来，这座城市见证了私人房地产投资的增长，投资者通过棕榈岛、世界群岛和迪拜塔等项目重塑迪拜的天际线。从本质上说，迪拜的成功主要体现在摩天大楼和大型购物中心等建设项目上。

Oil revenues after the Persian Gulf War encouraged Dubai to focus on free trade and tourism. The success of the Jebel Ali free zone allowed the city to replicate its model to develop clusters of new free zones, including Dubai Internet City, Dubai Media City and Dubai Maritime City. The constructions of Burj Al Arab, the world’s tallest freestanding hotel, as well as the creation of new residential developments, were used to market Dubai for purposes of tourism. Since 2002, the city has seen an increase in private real estate investment in recreating Dubai’s skyline with such projects as The Palm Islands, The World Islands and Burj Dubai. In essence the measure of success of Dubai has been on developments such as skyscrapers and vast shopping malls.

因此,迪拜在穆斯林世界中独树一帜,过去20年间经历了惊人的发展。如今它是一座现代化城市,高楼林立、独具特色的建筑群彰显着雄厚的财富。无论是来自伊斯兰国家的穆斯林,还是来自世界各地的各色人等,都大量涌向这座城市。迪拜为所有人提供了带有东方韵味的西式生活方式。本地人口只占少数,迪拜85%的人口是外籍侨民。对许多人而言,这被视为一个成功的故事,因为迪拜已将世界吸引到这座小小的岛屿上。然而,在这看似成功的背后,却隐藏着经济发展的神话。

Due to this, Dubai is unique amongst the Muslim world in that it has witnessed phenomenal development over the last 20 years. It is today a modern city, with much wealth on display in the form of tall buildings and unique developments. It is a city that not only Muslims from Islamic countries head towards in large numbers, but people of all kinds from all over the world. Dubai offers a western lifestyle with an Eastern flavour for all. The native population is a minority, 85% of Dubai’s population is composed of expatriates. For many this would be considered a success story as Dubai has attracted the world to its tiny island, but in this apparent success lays the myth of economic development.

迪拜拥有丰富的石油资源,石油收入使这座曾经的小渔村发展成为一座现代化都市。近年来,迪拜还将经济重心转向旅游和服务业。这使迪拜不仅成为中东地区,也成为全球的旅游枢纽。迪拜同时还立志成为可与伦敦、纽约相媲美的金融中心。

Dubai has been blessed with a vast amount of oil, the revenues of which have allowed a modern city to develop out of a once small fishing village. In recent years Dubai has also taken to orienting its economy towards the tourism and service sectors. This has led to Dubai becoming a hub of tourism in not only the Middle East but the world. It is also aspiring to become a financial centre to rival the likes of London and New York.

问题在于，迪拜并不是其他地区可以效仿的模式，而是一个独特的发展案例。它的发展方式使其实际上处于一种经济泡沫之中。

The problem with Dubai is that it’s not a model for others to follow, but a unique case of development. It has developed in such a manner that it is in fact existing in an economic bubble.

迪拜增长的主要推动力很大程度上来自其石油财富，其次是由外籍工人经营的公司。其作为贸易枢纽的地位也为它带来了财富。问题在于，石油并非取之不尽，而且已经在逐渐枯竭。帮助发展服务业的熟练工人大多来自海外，如今被视为本地阿拉伯人的人口只占迪拜人口的极小一部分。

The driving force behind Dubai’s growth has been largely its oil wealth, followed by companies that are run by foreign workers. Its position as a trading hub has also brought it wealth. The problem with this is that the oil is not unlimited, and is already running out. The skilled workers that are helping to develop the service sector are mostly from overseas, with only a tiny part of Dubai’s population now considered to be native Arabs.

这些因素表明，迪拜并不是真正经济发展的范例。它只是利用了有限的自然资源，并从国外引进人才，但几乎没有进行技能和知识的转移来推动其经济。与此同时，迪拜不生产城市居民所购买的任何制成品。它也不是一个自给自足的国家，因为它既没有生产其所消费产品所需的基础设施，也没有相应的自然资源。

These factors show why Dubai is not an example of true economic development. It has merely exploited limited natural resources and has been importing talent from abroad with little skills and knowledge transfer to drive its economy. This is coupled with the fact that Dubai does not produce any manufactured products that the people in the city buy. It is a nation that is not self-sufficient, as it does not have the infrastructure or natural resources in place to develop the products it consumes.

其增长直接源于该地区实质上成为外国公民和外国公司的免税区。这些公司虽然为当地人提供了就业机会和收入,却并未向当地人转让任何技术技能。其房地产价格上涨,很大程度上是由于人们投机性地认为价格还会继续上涨,并可以通过转售房产获利。

Its growth has been a direct result of it becoming an essentially tax free zone for foreign nationals and companies. These companies, whilst providing jobs and income to people in the country, are not transferring any technical skills to the people. Its real estate prices are rising in large part due to speculation that the prices will continue to rise, and a profit can be made from selling the property on.

迪拜将自身定位为服务型经济体，政府提供各类必要服务，包括基础设施、通信、公寓、公园、零售商场和旅游业，以供全球企业在此开展业务。这种发展模式的问题在于，企业不一定只能在一个地点运营，如有需要它们可以迁移，而任何动荡通常都会促使它们这样做。这样的发展使国家依赖外国人持续愿意在迪拜工作。中东是世界上最不稳定的地区，且存在战争的可能，这可能导致此类企业随时离开。

Dubai has modelled itself as a service based economy where the government will provide all the necessary services such as infrastructure, communications, flash apartments, parks, retail outlets and tourism for the worlds companies to operate from. The problem with this type of development is companies do not necessarily need to operate from only one location, they can move around if needed and any instability will usually lead to this. Such a development makes the nation reliant on foreigners to continually want to work from Dubai. With the Middle East being the most unstable region in the world and prospects of war this could lead to a departure of such companies at any time.

这些理由表明，迪拜不过是沙漠中的海市蜃楼。它的增长与生存依赖于外国实体的人才和专业知识。它只能提供银行和金融等专业服务，以及旅游业，以此保障自身的未来。由于这些行业在很大程度上依赖外国人的善意与信心，一旦这些势力决定撤出，迪拜便容易遭受经济崩溃。造成这种局面的原因可能多种多样。地区战争可能使迪拜成为工人不安全的地方，贸易路线也可能被切断。房价将会暴跌，目前涌入房地产市场的资金也将迅速撤离这座城市。

These reasons show why Dubai is nothing more than a mirage in the desert. Its growth and survival are dependent upon the talent and expertise of foreign entities. It can only offer specialist services such as banking and finance as a means to guarantee its future, along with tourism. As these sectors rely heavily on the goodwill and confidence of foreigners, Dubai is vulnerable to economic collapse if ever these powers decide to pull out. This could be caused for a variety of reasons. A regional war could render Dubai an unsafe place for workers, with trade routes also being cut off. Housing prices would collapse and money that is currently pouring into real estate would rush out of the city.

尽管这种情形看似极端，但鉴于中东的政治现实，它并非不可能发生。即便这种繁荣持续下去，其代价也在于伊斯兰价值观的稀释，因为为了吸引西方劳动力推动经济发展，饮酒及其他恶习被允许存在。

Though this may appear an extreme scenario, it is not an unlikely one given the political reality of the Middle East. Even while this prosperity continues, it comes at a cost in the dilution of Islamic values since alcohol and other vices are permitted in order to attract a western workforce to drive the economy.

对于任何试图效仿迪拜的人来说，其局限在于，该地区只能有一个旅游和金融枢纽。从定义上讲，同一地方不可能存在两个枢纽。两家地区航空公司的例子足以说明这一点。阿联酋航空以迪拜为基地运营，而阿提哈德航空则从阿布扎比运营。阿联酋航空已成功树立了自身品牌，深受前往该地区旅客的青睐。相比之下，阿提哈德航空则举步维艰，因为两家相距如此之近的航空公司，客流量根本不足以使它们都像阿联酋航空那样受欢迎。

The limitation upon anyone trying to emulate Dubai is that there can only be one hub of tourism and finance in the region. By definition, there cannot be two hubs in one place. The example of two regional airlines is sufficient to explain this point. Emirates are an airline that runs out of Dubai, whilst Etihad runs from Abu Dhabi. Emirates have managed to establish itself as a brand and are popular with people travelling to the region. Etihad on the other hand struggles, as there simply is not enough traffic to make two airlines so close to each both as popular as Emirates.

在后工业时代的世界里，拥有庞大的服务业被视为21世纪经济的前提条件，美国和英国的服务业在经济中所占的比重都超过了70%。然而，迪拜以及整个穆斯林世界从未经历过工业化，因此转向以服务业为基础的经济模式并不可持续，这与西方世界成为独立经济体所走的道路完全相悖。西方世界如今拥有制造业基础、庞大的军队以及国家资助的农业部门。与次贷危机一样，迪拜模式是一个正在膨胀、等待破裂的泡沫。

In a post-industrial world having a large service sector is considered a prerequisite for the 21st century economy, both the US and the UK have service sectors that make-up more then 70% of the economy. However, Dubai as well as the Muslim world never went through industrialisation, thus becoming service based economies is not a sustainable model and is in complete contradiction to the path the Western world took to become independent economies, which today have a manufacturing base, large militaries and state funded agricultural sectors. Like the credit crunch the Dubai model is an inflating bubble waiting to burst.