在21世纪前夕，美国是世界上最强大的国家。十年前苏联解体后，美国几乎没有来自其他国家的挑战，被视为已实现全方位主导。马克思主义与市场经济之间不再有任何实质性的争论。西方自由民主似乎正在成为"人类政府的最终形式"。这促使傲慢的新保守主义者制定政策，以确保这种局面在可预见的未来持续下去。正是在这种氛围下，许多观察家接受了美国无与伦比的霸权与不可战胜的地位。然而十年之后，事实远非如此。对全球力量平衡和美国外交政策的敏锐观察表明，美国正在走向衰落。

On the eve of the 21st century the US was the world’s foremost power. With the collapse of the Soviet Union 10 years earlier the US faced very little challenge from any other nation and was considered to have achieved full spectrum dominance. There was no longer any meaningful dispute between Marxism and the market. It looked as though Western liberal democracy was becoming ‘the final form of human government.’ This led to the arrogant Neoconservatives developing policies to ensure such a scenario continued into the foreseeable future. It was this climate that led many observers to accept unrivalled US supremacy and invincibility. However a decade on, this could not be further from the truth. An astute observation of the global balance of power and US foreign policy suggests a faltering US.

美国在伊拉克和阿富汗的两道开放性伤口上正慢慢流血致死，而且看不到缓和的迹象。这两场战争持续的时间now已经超过了第二次世界大战。美国陆军是历史上技术最先进的军队，却无法击败使用上世纪六十年代研制的武器、缺乏训练的抵抗武装。因此，美国不得不依赖地区国家，以免陷入尴尬境地。美国通过秘密渠道争取叙利亚和伊朗的协助，以维持稳定。伊拉克南部的稳定正是通过伊朗实现的，而这一成果是借助两位来自伊朗的阿亚图拉达成的：阿亚图拉西斯塔尼，以及伊斯兰革命最高委员会（SCIR）领袖阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹·哈基姆。阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹·哈基姆可以调动一万名士兵，并积极推动南部地区实行联邦制，主张将九个省合并。哈基姆宣布争取更大的什叶派自治，这与美国肢解伊拉克的计划相吻合。这也是贝克－汉密尔顿报告呼吁与伊朗和叙利亚接触的主要原因，因为伊朗正是伊拉克南部效忠力量的根源所在。

America is slowly bleeding to death from two open wounds in Iraq and Afghanistan that show no signs of abating. Both wars have now lasted longer than World War 2. The US army, the most technologically advanced in history has been unable to defeat groups of untrained resistance fighters using weapons developed in the 1960’s. As a result the US has to rely on regional nations to avoid embarrassment. The US has enlisted Syrian and Iranian assistance via back door channels to maintain stability. It is through Iran that stability has come to the South of Iraq and this has been achieved through two Ayatollahs from Iran - Ayatollah Sistani and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim the leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution (SCIR). Abdul al-Aziz Hakim has 10,000 soldiers at his disposal and has aggressively pushed for federalism for the southern regions, calling for nine provinces to merge. Hakim’s declaration for greater Shi’ite autonomy coincides with the US plan of the dissolution of Iraq. This was the primary reason the Baker-Hamilton report called for the engagement of Iran and Syria because Iran specifically is the home for Southern Iraqi loyalty.

是伊朗维持了阿富汗北部和西部的稳定，阿富汗北部和西部与伊朗接壤，伊朗还阻止了普什图抵抗力量向这些地区扩张，这对美国有所帮助。

It is Iran who has maintained stability in Northern and Western Afghanistan which borders Iran and has prevented the Pushtun resistance from expanding into such areas which has helped the US.

德黑兰为此开展了一系列重建项目,使北约得以在一个小得多的抵抗区域内开展行动。伊朗是推翻塔利班政权的关键因素之一,并修建了道路、输电线路和边境站等基础设施项目。伦敦国际战略研究所国防分析部主任克里斯托弗·朗顿上校表示,伊朗是阿富汗未来重建与发展的重要国家,"双方不仅因过去共同打击塔利班的努力而紧密相连,也因为伊朗能够通过哈扎拉人群体(与伊朗人一样,他们是什叶派穆斯林)对阿富汗施加影响。在发展领域,伊朗已经参与了若干项目——例如,从波斯湾的阿巴斯港经阿富汗通往中亚的公路,对阿富汗的未来来说是一项非常非常重要的工程……在政治、经济和安全等方面,有一整串问题把阿富汗和伊朗联系在一起。"

Tehran has achieved this by carrying out a number of reconstruction projects which has allowed NATO to work on a much smaller area of resistance. Iran was a key factor in the overthrow of the Taliban and has built roads, power transmission lines, and border stations, among other infrastructure projects. Colonel Christopher Langton, who heads the Defense Analysis Department at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said Iran is an important country in the future reconstruction and development of Afghanistan, ‘They are being closely linked by efforts against the Taliban in the past, but also because of the influence that Iran can bring there with the Hazara population [who, like Iranians, are Shi'a Muslims]. And in the development sector, there are already projects which Iran is involved in -- for instance, the road from Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf up through Afghanistan to Central Asia is a very, very important project for the future of Afghanistan…There is a whole list of political, economic, and security issues which connect Afghanistan and Iran.

这引发了美国最具影响力的智库负责人理查德·哈斯的评论:"美国在中东的主导时代已经结束,地区现代史的新纪元已经开启。这一时代将由争夺影响力的新行为体和新力量塑造,而要驾驭它,华盛顿将不得不更多地依靠外交,而非军事实力。美国在世界上一些地区正面临诸多挑战,而这些地区仅十年前还完全处于其主导之下。在中东,除了需要依靠地区代理人的帮助之外,该地区正逐步从美国享有无可争议霸权的单极地区,转变为多极地区。美国在获取中东石油方面,正面临来自中国和俄罗斯的更多竞争。美国如今也越来越多地与印度、日本以及欧盟竞争该地区这份黑色黄金的大部分份额。英国也设法以伙伴关系与合作为幌子,挫败了美国的项目。曾任国家情报委员会副主席的格雷厄姆·富勒在《国家利益》杂志的一期文章中描述了美国的困境,他写道:'多个国家部署了多种多样的战略和策略,旨在通过'千刀万剐式的死亡'来削弱、转移、改变、复杂化、限制、拖延或阻断布什的议程。'"

This has prompted Richard Hass the head of the most powerful US think tank to comment: ‘the age of US dominance in the Middle East has ended and a new era in the modern history of the region has begun. It will be shaped by new actors and new forces competing for influence, and to master it, Washington will have to rely more on diplomacy than on military might. The US is facing numerous challenges in regions of the world which only a decade ago it completely dominated. In the Middle East apart from needing the help of regional surrogates, the Middle East is gradually shifting from being a uni-polar region in which the US enjoys uncontested hegemony to a multi-polar region. The US is facing more competition from China and Russia over access to Middle East oil. The US is now increasingly competing with India and Japan as well as the European Union for the lion's share of the regions black gold. Britain has also managed to foil American projects under the guise of partnership and co-operation. Graham Fuller former vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council described America’s predicament when he wrote in the issue of the National Interest, ‘diverse countries have deployed a multiplicity of strategies and tactics designed to weaken, divert, alter, complicate, limit delay or block the Bush agenda through death by a thousand cuts.

在托尼·布莱尔任期内，英国挫败了美国推翻塞拉利昂总统卡巴赫的图谋，并努力将卡扎菲政府从9/11之后主张在利比亚实行政权更迭的美国新保守派手中解救出来。在苏丹，由于达尔富尔危机，美国未能使南苏丹独立，而法国和英国则利用该危机干预苏丹事务。在南非，布莱尔与美国不遗余力地竞争，以维护英国的影响力，并使该国成为邻近非洲国家反政府活动的主要基地。

Britain under Tony Blair’s tenure thwarted America’s bid to oust President Kabbah of Sierra Leone and worked diligently to rescue Gaddafi’s government from the clutches of American neoconservatives who after 9/11 wanted regime change in Libya. In Sudan the US has been unable to separate Southern Sudan due to the Darfur crisis which has been used by France and Britain to interfere in Sudan. In South Africa Blair competed tirelessly with the US to protect British influence and made the country the mainstay of anti-government activities in neighbouring African countries.

美国也面临被边缘化的前景，因为中国在非洲发展方面已占据主导地位，完成了100多项交易，总价值超过200亿美元，以确保石油的稳定供应。

The US is also facing the prospect of being left out to dry as China has taken leadership on African development by completing over 100 deals, worth over $20 billion, to secure a stable supply of oil.

在印度次大陆，美国的主导地位受到了遏制：2004年国大党上台，英国借此重新在印度确立了影响力。亲美的印度人民党（BJP）落败，对美国利益构成了严重打击。在巴基斯坦，美国不得不与英国分享权力，以挽救穆沙拉夫将军日益下滑的支持率。

In the Indian Subcontinent US dominance has been stifled as Britain reasserted its influence over India through the ascendancy of the Congress Party in 2004. The defeat of the pro-American Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was a severe blow to American interests. In Pakistan the US was forced to share power with Britain to salvage the declining popularity of General Musharraf.

俄罗斯和中国在没有效仿西方自由民主模式的情况下快速发展。然而,在过去一年里,正是俄罗斯选择几乎在每一个场合公开挑战西方及美国:从在北极冰盖下的海床上插旗、试验巨型航空炸弹,到对美国在东欧部署预警防御系统的做法提出异议。俄罗斯已开始重新塑造自身为地区性大国:它从美国的掌控中夺回了哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦,并成功遏制了中亚三场革命的影响。在近二十年没有对手之后,美国如今面临着来自一个拥有世界最大天然气储量和可观石油储量的国家的严峻挑战。

Russia and China are rapidly developing without following the example of Western liberal democracy. However, it is Russia, which over the last year has opted to openly challenge the West as well as the US at practically every turn, whether by planting a flag on the seabed beneath the Arctic icecap, testing the massive ordnance air blast bomb or disputing the sitting of US earlywarning defence systems in eastern Europe. Russia has begun re-inventing itself as a regional power, after winning back Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan from America’s grip and managing to stop the influence of the three revolutions in central Asia. The US after nearly 20 years of having no rival is now facing the grim prospect of a challenge from a nation with the world’s largest gas reserves and substantial oil reserves.

美国在拉丁美洲的掌控也在松动，自1823年门罗宣言发表以来，拉丁美洲实际上已被它视为自家的后院。美国阻止欧洲各国干涉美洲大陆，也阻止它们威胁美国的利益。正是由于美国的霸权，拉丁美洲才得以置身于欧洲帝国主义的掌控之外。

The US is also losing its grip on Latin America which it essentially turned into its back yard since the time of the Monroe declaration in 1823. America prevented all the European states from interfering in the American continent, and from threatening the interests of the US. Due to US hegemony, Latin America remained outside the grip of the European imperialism.

然而,随着委内瑞拉、巴西、阿根廷、乌拉圭、玻利维亚、智利和尼加拉瓜相继选出左翼政府,美国第一次面临独立政府的威胁,这些政府奉行有别于华盛顿的独立议程。委内瑞拉、巴西和玻利维亚已将关键公用事业收归国有,并建立了一个替代由美国主导的国际货币基金组织和世界银行的机构——南方银行。近两百年来,美国在美洲大陆的霸权正受到民众拥护的独立领导人公开挑战。

However, with the elections of left wing governments in Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia, Chile and Nicaragua, the US for the first time is facing the threat of independent governments who are following an independent agenda separate to Washington. Nations such as Venezuela, Brazil and Bolivia have nationalised key utilities and have developed an alternative to US dominated institutions such as the IMF and World Bank to their own version – Bank of the South. After nearly 200 years the US is finding its hegemony being openly challenged by popular independent leaders in the American continent.

美国也正在失去其经济霸权，这种霸权自它参与第二次世界大战之日起逐步形成。美国经济曾是世界的强大动力，但如今正被新兴经济体甩在身后。就经济增长而言，它如今位居中国和印度之后，排名第三。美国对石油持续增长的需求使这一问题雪上加霜。

The US is also losing its grip on its economic hegemony which it developed from the day it entered World War 2. The American economy used to be the world’s powerhouse, but today it is being left behind by emerging economies. It stands in third place now behind China and India in economic growth. This problem is further compounded by America’s continued demand for greater oil.

美国在经济上面临的最大威胁来自中国，两国之间已经形成了复杂的关系。美国企业渴望进入中国14亿多的庞大市场，与此同时，中国70%的商品最终流向美国。中国从这一关系中获益更多，其美元储备已累积超过1.2万亿美元。另一方面，美国本土企业难以与中国的低价竞争，同时保持优质的工艺水准，这使得美国的贸易逆差膨胀至近1万亿美元。美国通过发行国债为这一逆差提供资金，而中国是仅次于日本的世界第二大国债购买国，持有5020亿美元，占美国外债总额的20%。此外，美国正在享受的经济繁荣本身也推动了中国对石油需求的增长。两国关系相互依存，美国对此无法完全掌控，也难以轻易地向对方提出条件。

America’s biggest threat economically comes from China and already both nations have a complex relationship. US companies are eager to tap into the 1.5 billion Chinese population, whilst at the same time 70% of Chinese goods end up on US shores. China has benefited more from this relationship than the US by accumulating over $1.2 trillion in dollar reserves. Domestic US companies on the other hand are unable to match Chinese low prices for quality workmanship and this has led the US trade deficit to balloon to nearly $1 trillion. The US funds this by issuing treasury bonds, of which China is the world’s largest purchaser after Japan at $502 billion, 20% of total US foreign debt. Added to this is that the very economic boom America is benefiting from is increasing demand for oil by China. The relationship between the two is interdependent which the US does not have full control over and cannot easily dictate terms.

伊拉克和阿富汗战争的惨败严重损害了美国在世界各地的威望。

The debacle of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars has severely dented US prowess around the world.

美国并非如其所自诩的那样不可战胜，反而暴露出它越来越依赖他人，并且在国内深陷苦难的汪洋之中。联邦调查局（FBI）2005年公布的统计数据显示，美国每22秒就发生一起犯罪，每31分钟发生一起谋杀，每5分钟发生一起强奸，每分钟发生一起抢劫。

The US rather than being invincible has been exposed as being ever more reliant upon others and is drowning in a sea of misery domestically. FBI statistics highlighted in 2005 show that a crime was committed every 22 seconds in the US, with a murder committed every 31 minutes, a rape every 5 minutes and a robbery every minute.

美国远非不可战胜；它正发现自己的帝国时代正在迅速消逝。

The US is far from invincible; it is finding its days of empire are fast eroding.