在任何既定时刻，全球局势都可能有多件事同时发生，这使人们难以看清谁在做什么，以及这些行为背后的动机。由于乌玛肩负着向全世界传播伊斯兰da'wah的责任，每位穆斯林都有必要关注全球局势，理解其处境，并了解世界各国的动机及其政治计划。为了理解全球局势或全球力量平衡，应当牢记以下几点：

The global situation at any given time can have multiple events taking place which can cloud who is doing what and the motives behind such actions. Since the Ummah is entrusted with carrying the Islamic da’wah to the whole world, it is indispensable for every Muslim to pursue the global situation, comprehend its circumstances, and acquaint oneself with the motives of the world’s nations and their political plans. In order to understand the global situation or the global balance of power the following points should be kept in mind:

为了评估任何政治局势的合理性、某项政策可能带来的战略优势，甚至判断现实中的某个事实是否只是一种谬论，唯有了解国际形势以及相互竞争的各国，才能真正理解这些问题。仅凭地缘政治的现实本身，并不能说明其是否成立；将全球力量均衡中各个国家的情况，以及各国的政策等更广泛的因素联系起来，才是理解任何全球性斗争、分辨谬论与事实的途径。

1. In order to asses the validity of any political situation or the strategic advantage a particular policy may bring, or even whether a certain fact in reality is a myth - this can only really be understood if one is acquainted with the international situation and the nations that compete with each other. Geopolitical realities on their own give no indication of their validity, linking wider factors such as the nations that make up the global balance of power alongside national policies is the way to comprehend any global struggle and distinguish myths from truths.

2. 地缘政治是政治学的一个分支。若不先理解政治，就无法跟上全球地缘政治局势，这样做既不可能，也很危险。只有通过政治，才能清楚地理解地缘政治。这是因为，政治是一个国家用于处理内部事务的政策、规划和方式，其实施依托于某种意识形态；而一个国家的外交政策，则是它为实现自身目标而与世界建立的各种关系。正是政治塑造了地缘政治格局，因此，世界各地日渐枯竭的水井、石油政治、对苏伊士运河或波斯湾的控制，本身并非问题的实质，而是因为世界各国存在着多重且各不相同的利益，才使这些地区具有了战略重要性。

2. Geopolitics is a branch of politics. It is impossible and dangerous to follow the global geopolitical situation without first understanding politics. It is through politics that geopolitics is clearly understood. This is because politics is the polices, plans and styles used to take care of the nations affairs domestically through the implementation of an ideology whist a nations foreign policy is the relations a nation builds with the world in order to achieve its goals. It is the politics that will define the geopolitical arena, hence the dwindling water wells around the world, the politics of oil, control of the Suez canal or the Persian Gulf are not issues in themselves, but the multiple interests a variety of nations around the world have makes them strategically important.

3. 世界各国大致可分为两类。一类是意识形态型国家,它们采纳某种意识形态,以此确定国家方向,并作为推导立法、制定政策的基础,例如奉行资本主义的美国、英国、法国和德国。另一类国家并不奉行某种意识形态,而是拥有由其历史或地理位置所决定的利益,对它们而言,维护这些利益是推动政策制定的动力,例如巴基斯坦为抵御印度所作的努力,以及西藏谋求从中国独立的诉求。意识形态的运用以及为维护和实现国家利益所做的种种努力,引发了世界各地之间的互动,这便构成了国际局势。

3. Nations around the world are either ideological in nature where they have adopted an ideology which gives the nation direction and acts as a basis for deriving legislation and building polices, such as the US, Britain, France and Germany with Capitalism. Then there are other nations which do not embrace an ideology but have interests which are defined by their history or location, for them the protection of the interest is what drives policy development as can be seen with Pakistan attempting to defend itself against India and Tibet wanting independence from China. The application of the ideology and the attempts to protect and achieve national interests leads to interactions across the world and this is the international situation.

4. 世界任何一个国家的局势都不会一成不变。它会经历许多变化,包括实力的强弱、影响力的有无,以及与其他国家对外关系的差异与转变。因此,不可能设定一个恒定的框架或一套准则来观察国际形势,因为国际形势始终处于不断变动之中。不过,只要承认其会发生变化,就可以在任何特定时期对国际形势进行分析;同样,只要承认此类评估也会随之改变,就可以分析世界各大国的实力。 5. 国际形势是世界各国之间国际关系的结构,包括超级大国的地位,以及与之竞争的国家的状况。

4. The state of affairs in any nation of the world does not remain the same. It goes through many changes, in terms of strength and weakness, power of influence or its absence, and in terms of difference and change in its foreign relations with other nations. This is why it is impossible to draw a constant framework or a set of guidelines to view the international situation as the international situation is always in a state of flux. However, an analysis of the international situation at any given time is possible bearing in mind it is liable for change. It is also possible to analyze the strength of the powers in the world bearing in mind such an assessment is liable for change. 5. The international situation is the structure of the international relations between the world’s nations. It is the status of the superpower and the nations that compete with it.

理解全球权力平衡，除了要了解哪些国家是世界大国、它们的政策与目标之外，还需要国际关系方面的知识。国际关系指的是世界大国之间围绕超级大国地位而展开的持续竞争。正因如此，国际局势并不稳定，会经历许多变化。因此，任何对全球权力平衡的分析，都只是对某一特定时间点的描述。当国际局势发生变化时，这样的分析便成为历史的一部分。

Understanding the global balance of power apart from knowing the nations who are the world’s powers, their policies and aims requires the knowledge of international relations, which is the constant competition between the world’s powers over the position of the superpower. This is why the international situation is not stable and goes through many changes. Hence any analysis of the global balance of power is a description of a particular point in time. When the international situation changes such an analysis becomes part of history.

6. 国际局势将始终处于变动之中，因为它由一些国家在不同情势下的政治经济状况所决定。这种形势与环境的变化，要么是因为某个国家变得更强或更弱，要么是因为它与其他国家的关系变得更强或更弱。在这种情况下，世界力量均势中的变化会随着世界上各种力量对比的变化而产生。因此，理解每个对国际局势有影响的国家的地位，是理解全球力量均势的基础。

6. The international situation will always be in a state of flux because it is determined by the political-economic situation of some states from one circumstance to another. Such change of situations and circumstances is either because a nation became stronger or weaker, or because its relations with other states became stronger or weaker. In such a case, a change in the global balance of power would result due to a change in the balance of powers existent in the world. This is why understanding the status of each state that has influence on the international situation is the basis for understanding the global balance of power.

7. 了解某一时期的全球局势，并不意味着必须熟悉世界上所有的政治。那些不构成全球权力平衡的国家，无需去追踪，因为世界上的重大事件，是世界各大国在世界各地的不同舞台上相互角逐的结果。

7. Understanding the global situation at any given time does not mean one must be acquainted with all of the world’s politics. The nations who do not make up the global balance of power need not be pursued as the major actions in the world are a result of the world’s powers competing with each other and in different arenas across the world.

朝鲜与美国之间的核武器对峙，直接源于美国试图遏制中国。中国一直推动多边会谈，旨在实现朝鲜与韩国的统一，以确保自己的后方不会燃起战火。此类会议发表的声明相互矛盾：中国对会谈持悲观态度，在大多数问题上立场存在距离，而美国则不断宣称谈判取得了成功。

- The North Korea Nuclear weapons stand-off with the US is a direct result of US attempts to contain China. China has been pursuing multilateral talks for the reunification of North and South Korea trying to ensure its back door is not set on fire. The statements from such meetings have been contradictory where China has been pessimistic about the talks with distance on most issues whilst the US has continually remarked successful negotiations.

美国至今未与朝鲜进行直接谈判，这使问题更加令人恼火。进展持续迟缓、问题久拖不决，恰好为驻扎在该地区的近10万名美军提供了借口。2006年10月朝鲜进行核武器试验，这将耗费中国的努力，也为美国在韩国保持持续而大规模的驻军提供了合适的理由。J·赖利在一份政策文件中对此作了阐述："这些美军驻扎该地区，不仅仅是为了打击造成当地动荡的'恐怖主义团体'，更是为了加强美国对南中国海领土的军事控制。这一战略区域蕴藏着巨大的潜在石油储量，毗邻通往中东的航道，并可进入东南亚的大部分地区。扩大后的美国……"

The US has not directly negotiated with North Korea which is exasperating the issue. The continued sluggish progress and prolonging fits perfectly for the presence of nearly 100,000 US troops in the region and with North Korea testing its nuclear arsenal in October 2006 this will expend Chinese efforts and gives a suitable justification for sustained and substantial US presence in South Korea. J Rielly outlined this in a policy paper: ‘These U.S. troops are in the region not simply to fight the "terrorist groups" causing local instability, but to enhance U.S. military control over territory in the South China Sea. This strategic area with vast potential oil reserves sits aside the shipping lanes to the Middle East and offers access to much of Southeast Asia. The expanded U.S.

美国在东南亚的军事存在以及与东南亚国家新兴的军事联盟，加剧了中国的焦虑，并且通过东盟地区论坛等机制阻碍了亚洲国家之间的独立协议。41

presence and nascent military alliances with Southeast Asian nations exacerbates Chinese anxieties and impedes independent accords among Asian states though such mechanisms as the ASEAN Regional Forum.’41

- 南奥塞梯要求脱离格鲁吉亚独立，是美国与俄罗斯争夺东欧控制权的直接结果。巴尔干战争本质上是由美国制造的，目的是在后苏联时代遏制俄罗斯，并把前共产主义国家纳入美国的势力范围。俄罗斯凭借其历史渊源，得以将塞尔维亚纳入自己的势力范围，并以此作为堡垒，挫败美国的主导地位。

- The call for independence by South Ossetia from Georgia is a direct result of competition between the US and Russia for control over Eastern Europe. The Balkan wars were essentially created by the US to contain Russia in a post Soviet world and bring the former communist states under the US area of influence. Russia was able to bring Serbia under its area of influence due to its history and has used it as a bulwark to frustrate US dominance.

塞尔维亚一直是美国议程的障碍,因此美国急于削弱它:最初策划了黑山与塞尔维亚的分离,接着又促成科索沃从塞尔维亚分离,随后北约又对科索沃以及塞尔维亚本土的塞尔维亚武装力量发动了攻击。北奥塞梯是俄罗斯境内的一个半自治地区,而南奥塞梯在苏联解体的最后时刻划归格鲁吉亚。俄罗斯利用其与北奥塞梯的关系,推动南奥塞梯人要求独立,从而挫败了美国在该地区的图谋。俄罗斯与茨欣瓦利的领导层保持密切联系,当地分离主义者欢迎莫斯科的支持立场。令格鲁吉亚深感不满的是,大多数南奥塞梯人持有俄罗斯护照,而且俄罗斯卢布在贸易中被普遍使用。

Serbia has been a barrier for the American agenda and as a result the US was keen to weaken it initially by engineering the separation of Montenegro from Serbia, then separating Kosovo from it and then the NATO attack on Serbian armed forces in Kosovo as well as in Serbia itself. North Ossetia is a semi autonomous region in Russia, whilst South Ossetia fell into Georgia in the dying days of the USSR. Russia has used its relations with North Ossetia to push South Ossetians to call for independence thus thwarting US aims in the region. Russia maintains close contacts with the leadership in Tskhinvali where separatists welcome Moscow’s supportive stance. To Georgia’s deep annoyance, most South Ossetians have Russian passports and the Russian rouble is commonly used in trade.

藏人要求脱离中国的呼声，同时也是中美之间的一场角力。

- The call by Tibet for separation from China is also a struggle between China and the US.

美国对该地区的干预始于20世纪50年代，通过中央情报局实施，目的是遏制中国采纳共产主义。1959年由“自由西藏运动”发动的灾难性的血腥起义，是中央情报局策划实施的大规模秘密行动，针对的是西藏的中国共产党政权。数以万计的藏族人死亡，达赖喇嘛和约十万名追随者被迫翻越危险的喜马拉雅山口，逃往印度和尼泊尔。中央情报局在美国科罗拉多州利德维尔附近的黑尔营地为达赖喇嘛的抵抗战士设立了一处秘密军事训练营。中央情报局对藏族游击队员进行训练并提供装备，使其从事针对中国共产党的游击战和破坏行动。中国面临着诸多严峻问题，包括新疆的维吾尔族穆斯林，以及法轮功和其他许多谋求独立的异见团体的活动。藏族人民夹在压迫性的北京政府与企图削弱中国的、手段狡诈的华盛顿之间，处境艰难。

US interference in the region begun in the 1950’s through the CIA in order to counter China’s adoption of communism. The disastrous bloody uprising in 1959 by the Free Tibet Movement was a CIA conducted large scale covert action campaign against the communist Chinese in Tibet. Tens of thousands of Tibetans were left dead, while the Dalai Lama and about 100,000 followers were forced to flee across the treacherous Himalayan passes to India and Nepal. The CIA established a secret military training camp for the Dalai Lama’s resistance fighters at Camp Hale near Leadville, Colorado, in the US. The Tibetan guerrillas were trained and equipped by the CIA for guerrilla warfare and sabotage operations against the communist Chinese. China is faced with significant problems, with the Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang province, and the activities of the Falun Gong among many other dissident groups aiming for independence. Tibetan people find themselves trapped between an oppressive Beijing and a manipulative Washington attempting to weaken China.

8. 世界列强之间的竞争自有时以来就一直存在，并将持续到审判日。古代，法老统治下的埃及是超级大国，美索不达米亚与之竞争。罗马帝国成为超级大国，波斯帝国与之竞争。随后，哈里发国家击败了波斯和拜占庭帝国的残余势力，并在十八世纪之前一直是世界超级大国，其间面临蒙古人和十字军的挑战。法国和英国随后与奥斯曼哈里发国竞争了近三个世纪，直到十八世纪中叶。第一次世界大战前夕，德国改变了全球权力平衡，而法国和英国与之竞争。第一次世界大战后，英国成为世界强国，法国与之竞争。德国再次挑战英国作为世界超级大国的地位，直到第二次世界大战才终止了德国的霸权。第二次世界大战后，美国成为世界超级大国，并在五十年间受到苏联的挑战，直至苏联于1990年解体。

8. Competition between the world powers is something that has existed from the beginning of time and will continue until the day of judgement. In ancient times Egypt under the pharaohs was the superpower and Mesopotamia competed with it. The Roman Empire became the superpower and the Persian Empire competed with it. The Khilafah then defeated the remnants of the Persian and Byzantine empires and was the world’s superpower until the 18th century facing challenges from the Mongols and the crusaders during this time. France and England then competed with the Uthmani Khilafah for nearly three centuries until the mid-18th century. On the eve of World War 1 Germany shifted the global balance of power, whilst France and Britain competed with it. After World War 1 Britain emerged as the world’s power and France competed with it. Germany once again challenged Britain as the world’s superpower and only World War 2 stopped German hegemony. The US emerged the world’s superpower after World War 2 and was challenged by the Soviet Union for five decades until its collapse in 1990.

9. 2008年时，美国是世界超级大国。尽管其实力已有所衰退，它在国际政治上仍然拥有全球最大的影响力。美国远超其他国家，是世界上最大的经济体，也是技术最先进的国家，并在世界各地设有军事基地以维护其利益。能够与美国抗衡的国家有俄罗斯、英国、法国和德国。

9. In 2008 the US is the world’s superpower. Although faltering it still has the greatest influence around the world on international politics. The US is the world’s largest economy by far and the most advanced nation technologically, and maintains military bases across the world in order to protect its interests. The nations that are able to compete with the US are Russia, Britain, France and Germany.

所有四个国家都在全球范围内怀有国际野心。过去十年间,俄罗斯成功把其矿产资源和公用事业重新掌控在国家手中,并驱逐了许多在苏联解体中获益的寡头。拥有世界上最大的能源储备之一的俄罗斯,如今正在发展先进的军事力量,并在美国近十年来几乎毫无争议地占据霸主地位的地区与其展开直接竞争。

All four nations have international ambitions across the world. Russia in the last decade has managed to gain control over its mineral resources and utilities and banished many oligarchs who benefited from the break-up of the Soviet Union. With some of the worlds largest energy reserves it is now developing a state of the art military and competing directly with the US in regions where the US for nearly a decade had uncontested hegemony.

英国历史上曾是世界强国，至今在其前殖民地仍有影响力。

Britain historically has been a world power and still has influence in its former colonies.

英国是欧洲的关键角色，并且多次挫败了美国的计划。英国仍然怀有全球性的抱负，并通过与美国合作、在许多场合又与其竞争，努力维护自身的利益。

Britain is a key player in Europe and has frustrated many US plans. Britain continues to have global ambitions and works to maintain its interests by cooperating with the US and on many occasions competing with it.

法国和英国一样，一直是欧洲历史和政治中的关键角色。几十年来，法国的政策主要围绕着通过其殖民地、法国文化以及经济实力在全世界扩大影响力展开。

France like Britain has been a key player in European history and politics, its policies for decades have been centred on creating influence across the world through its colonies, French culture and through its economic strength.

德国是世界第三大经济体，经济规模达2.7万亿美元，是欧洲的经济强国。它是世界上最大的商品出口国，出口额达1.1万亿美元。当今的德国通过一套独特的经济政策实现经济扩张，并在东欧地区拥有实际上的霸权地位。此外，德国还在以色列与真主党交换战俘问题上发挥了积极作用，成功促成了斡旋。

Germany is the third largest in economy in the world at $2.7 trillion and an economic powerhouse in Europe. It is the world’s largest exporter of goods at $1.1 trillion. Germany today is expanding economically through a distinct set of economic policies with a virtual hegemony in the regions of Eastern Europe. Germany also played an active role in the successful mediation in the issue of exchanging prisoners between Israel and Hezbollah.

2006年，德国也在以色列入侵黎巴嫩期间部署了一支海军力量。其部署包括两艘护卫舰——“梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞”号和“卡尔斯鲁厄”号，并由直升机、补给舰和巡逻艇提供支援，舰上共有约1500名官兵。

Germany also deployed a naval force in the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 2006. Its deployment consisted of two frigates - the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Karlsruhe - supported by helicopters, supply ships and patrol boats, with about 1,500 men on board.

这是德国自第二次世界大战以来规模最大的一次军事部署。

This is Germany’s largest military deployment since World War 2.

在与美国直接竞争的各国之外，中国在全球范围内拥有仅次于它们的影响力，但目前它仍然只是一个地区性大国。如果中国在国际抱负上不那么狭隘，而是只专注于本地区，它本可以与世界强国展开竞争。然而，这种局面在未来很可能会发生改变。

After the nations that directly compete with the US across the world, China has the most influence however it remains currently a regional power. Had China not been narrow in its international ambitions, focusing only on its region it would have competed with the world’s powers. However, this situation is very likely to change in the future.

日本是经济强国，其经济规模仅次于美国，居世界第二。然而，在经济领域之外，它几乎没有影响力。其当前参与阿富汗联军的政策，以及修改和平宪法第九条、允许其部署军队并发展核武器的举动，实际上是美国试图制衡中国在该地区影响力的做法。日本的影响力恰恰证明了美国的主导地位，而非日本自身的发展。

Japan is an economic power with the largest economy in the world after the US. However, outside the economic sphere it has no influence. Its current policy of taking part in the coalition in Afghanistan and the removal of article 9 in its pacifist constitution allowing it to deploy troops and develop nuclear weapons, is the US attempting to counterbalance Chinese influence in the region. Japanese influence actually proves US dominance, rather than Japanese development.

在大国之下，还有一些国家因其历史或地理位置，在某些情况下对特定问题具有一定影响力，但这种影响力往往是暂时的。印度人口众多，拥有核武器，未来有可能在其所在地区发挥更大影响力；而意大利在第二次世界大战之前曾是一个强国，但这种地位同样只是暂时的。这就是当前的全球力量格局，而这一格局随时都可能发生变化。

After the great powers there are some nations that have influence in some circumstances on specific issues due to their history or location, but this has been temporary. India has a large population and possesses nuclear weapons and has the potential in the future to influence its region, whilst Italy was once a power prior to World War 2 but this was temporary. Currently this is the global balance of power, which is liable to change at any time.

理解这些国家的历史、它们如何发展、其信仰与价值观以及所采纳的意识形态，能让人理解每个国家的动机。这些国家彼此之间，以及与超级大国美国之间，都在全球范围内相互竞争。这种国际局势可以非常清楚地理解，因为全球局势就是世界各大国为实现自身利益而展开的竞争。

Understanding the histories of these states, how they developed, their beliefs and values as well as the ideologies they have embraced would give one an understanding of the motives of these individual states. These nations all compete with each other globally as well as with the superpower - the US. This international situation can be understood very clearly as the global situation is the competition between the world’s powers to achieve their interests.

10. 穆斯林应当铭记：无论乌玛在全球范围内的处境看起来多么严峻，这幅图景有很大一部分只是海市蜃楼，很容易被改变和取代。穆斯林乌玛在历史上曾是一个超级大国，直到十九世纪仍持续影响着国际政治。随着哈里发制度于1924年被摧毁，其国际影响力随之衰落，因为它失去了国家的依托，此后便一直处于黯淡与混乱之中。然而，在过去十年里，变革已达到沸点，如今哈里发即将到来的迹象甚至在非穆斯林中也成了主流观点。乌玛在尝过西方腐朽思想的滋味之后，在全球范围内拒绝了资本主义，这体现在她对伊斯兰的向往之中。依真主的允许，哈里发的曙光即将升起，正如先知穆罕默德ﷺ在以下圣训中所预言的那样：

10. Muslims should bear in mind that however dire the situation may look globally for the Ummah, much of this picture is a mirage and can very easily be changed and replaced. The Muslim Ummah has historically been a superpower and continued to influence international politics until the nineteenth century. With the destruction of the Khilafah in 1924 its international influence declined as it was without a state and ever since it has remained in a situation of gloom and anarchy. However, in the last decade change has reached boiling point where now the signs of the coming of the Khilafah is a mainstream idea amongst even non-Muslims. After tasting the corrupt thoughts of the West, the Ummah globally rejected Capitalism as shown by her desire for Islam and by Allah’s leave the dawn of the Khilafah is about to rise as prophesised by the Prophet Muhammad وسلم وآله عليه الله صلى in the following hadith:

“先知的职分将在你们中间存续，直到安拉意欲的时候，祂将收回它。然后将出现一个遵循先知之道的正统哈里发（哈里发·拉希达），它将存续，直到安拉意欲的时候，祂将收回它。之后将出现一个世袭的统治，它将存续，直到安拉意欲的时候，若祂愿意，便会将它废除。之后将出现残酷的压迫，它将持续，直到安拉意欲的时候，若祂愿意，便会将它消除。”

“The Prophethood will last among you for as long as Allah wills, then Allah would take it away. Then it will be (followed by) a Khilafah Rashida (rightly guided) according to the ways of the Prophethood. It will remain for as long as Allah wills, then Allah would take it away. Afterwards there will be a hereditary leadership which will remain for as long as Allah wills, then He will lift it if He wishes. Afterwards, there will be biting oppression, and it will last for as long as Allah wishes, then He will lift it if He wishes.

然后将会出现遵循先知之道的哈里发制度（哈里发·拉希达）。”然后他便沉默了。 [Musnad Imam Ahmad (273)]

Then there will be a Khilafah Rashida according to the ways of the Prophethood.” Then he kept silent. [Musnad Imam Ahmad (273)]