波斯湾拥有巨大的能源储备和重要的战略位置，也是世界上最大的单一原油产地，一百多年来一直是各方势力争夺的焦点，而该地区最强大的力量是伊朗。因此，谁能争取到伊朗站在自己一边，谁就能掌控整个地区，因为伊朗是该地区的关键。

The Persian Gulf with its immense energy reserves and strategic location as well as being the world’s largest single source of crude oil, has been the centre of conflict for over 100 years by various powers with the most powerful force in the region being Iran. Hence whoever has Iran on their side will have control over the entire region since Iran is the key to the region.

自美国入侵伊拉克以来,伊朗一直承受着美国官员的猛烈批评,乔治·W·布什甚至以战争相威胁。自2002年布什发表"邪恶轴心"国情咨文以来,布什一直拒绝与伊朗接触。伊朗不断被指控武装伊拉克的叛乱势力、支持真主党并发展核武器。美国向波斯湾增派一艘航空母舰,进一步加剧了外界对美国可能对伊朗发动袭击的猜测。所有这些表面上都表明,美国与伊朗截然对立,利益迥异,因此伊朗对美国在该地区构成直接威胁,需要将其解除武装,尤其是剥夺其核武器,并剥去其伊斯兰身份,同时给予民主与自由。

Since the invasion of Iraq by the US, Iran has been on the receiving end of a barrage of criticism by US officials and has even been threatened with war by George W. Bush. Since Bush’s axis of evil state of the union speech in 2002, Bush has refused to engage with Iran. Iran is continually accused of arming the insurgency in Iraq, supporting Hizbollah and developing nuclear weapons. The dispatch of an additional aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf all increased speculation that the US may launch an attack against Iran. All of this on the surface indicates that the US and Iran are diametrically opposed to each other, have interests which widely differ and as a result Iran represents a direct threat to the US in the region hence it needs to be disarmed, especially of its nuclear weapons and stripped of its Islamic credentials and showered with democracy and freedom.

自1979年所谓的“伊斯兰革命”以来，历届政府，从拉夫桑贾尼到哈塔米，都试图通过与欧洲和西方建立联系来消除人们对极端保守派的印象。这促成了美伊在多个领域的合作。1986年，伊朗门事件被曝光，美国政府当时向一个公开宣称的敌人伊朗出售武器，并将所得款项用于资助尼加拉瓜的反共游击组织“反政府武装”（Contras）。反坦克导弹连同总额超过20亿美元的地对空导弹，经由以色列提供给了伊朗。

Since the so called ‘Islamic Revolution’ in 1979 successive governments from Rafsanjani and Khatami have tried to dispel the image of ultra-conservatives by building links with Europe and the West. This has resulted in the US-Iran cooperation in various areas. In 1986 the Iran-Contra Affair was exposed where the US administration sold arms to Iran, an avowed enemy at the time, and used the proceeds to fund the Contras, an anti-communist guerrilla organisation in Nicaragua. Anti-Tank missiles were provided to Iran along with shipments of surface-to-air missiles totalling more than $2 billion via Israel.

尽管遭到布什政府的公开指责,伊朗政府中的这些改革派仍在继续推动美国在伊朗及邻国阿富汗和伊拉克的利益。在伊拉克,德黑兰持续支持伊拉克最高伊斯兰革命委员会(SCIRI)领导人哈基姆阿亚图拉以及巴德尔旅,而这两者已成为美国南部伊拉克计划的关键支点。在阿富汗,伊朗在喀布尔、赫拉特和坎大哈开展大规模的重建和培训项目。迄今为止,伊朗已成功阻止普什图抵抗力量蔓延至阿富汗北部。贝克—汉密尔顿报告证实了这种参与:"……美国应直接与伊朗和叙利亚接触,以争取它们承诺对伊拉克及其他地区问题采取建设性政策。在与叙利亚和伊朗接触时,美国应同时考虑激励措施和制约措施,以谋求建设性的结果……与伊朗接触存在问题,尤其是考虑到美伊关系的现状。然而,美国和伊朗曾在阿富汗合作,双方应探讨这一模式能否在伊拉克问题上复制。"另一方面,美国一直试图有力地论证伊朗核能力所构成的威胁,并继续推动制裁,因为该国的核野心违背国际准则。以色列是唯一一个仍在宣扬伊朗核弹数月之内即可研制成功这一观点的国家。以色列外交部长西尔万·沙洛姆在纽约向犹太领袖会议表示:"根据我们的民众、安全和情报部门的判断,他们已经非常非常接近了。也许只需六个月,他们就将完全掌握这项技术。"2005年,在国际原子能机构(IAEA)维也纳会议上,伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉哈梅内伊发布教令,禁止囤积、生产和使用核武器。

Despite being publicly derided by the Bush administration, such reformists in the Iranian government continue to promote US interests in Iran, and neighbouring Afghanistan and Iraq. In Iraq, Tehran continues to extend support to the leader of SCIRI, Ayatollah Hakim and the Badr Brigade who have become the lynchpin of US plans for Southern Iraq. In Afghanistan, Iran runs extensive reconstruction and training programs in Kabul, Herat and Kandahar. Thus far, Iran has successfully prevented the Pushtun resistance from spreading to Northern Afghanistan. The BakerHamilton report confirmed such engagement: ‘…the United States should engage directly with Iran and Syria in order to try to obtain their commitment to constructive policies toward Iraq and other regional issues. In engaging Syria and Iran, the United States should consider incentives, as well as disincentives; in seeking constructive results…Engaging Iran is problematic, especially given the state of the US-Iranian relationship. Yet the United States and Iran cooperated in Afghanistan, and both sides should explore whether this model can be replicated in the case of Iraq.’ On the other hand the US has attempted to make a compelling case about the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear capability, and continues to push for sanctions as the country’s nuclear aspirations contravene international norms. Israel is the only country that continues to propagate the view that Iran’s nuclear bomb is months away. Sylvan Shalom, Israel’s Foreign Minister told a meeting of Jewish leaders in New York: ‘According to our people, security and intelligence, they are very, very close. It may be only six months before they will have that full knowledge.’ In 2005, at the meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khameni, issued a fatwa, which forbade the stockpiling, production, and use of nuclear weapons.

最高领袖也曾在2003年提出与以色列进行和平谈判。

The supreme leader had also offered peace talks with Israel in 2003.

在半个多世纪的时间里，美国与伊朗以不同方式打过交道。当前我们看到的是华盛顿释放出互相矛盾的信号：一方面，两国之间确实存在接触与合作；另一方面，伊朗却被公开指责为具有伊斯兰属性，并且在追求大规模杀伤性武器方面态度咄咄逼人。

Over a period of over half a century the US has engaged with Iran in different ways. Currently what we are witnessing is a number of mixed signals coming from Washington where engagement and cooperation takes place between the two nations whilst on the other hand Iran is publicly rebuked for being Islamic and aggressive in its pursuance of weapons of mass destruction.

对美国而言，它所策划的伊斯兰革命已经失去了利用价值。美国一段时间以来一直在努力正式结束这场革命（类似于苏联入侵阿富汗期间它在巴基斯坦所推动的圣战），因为当初策划这场革命所要达成的目标，已经实现了。

For the US the Islamic revolution which it engineered has outlived its use. The US for some time has been working to officially end the revolution (similar to the Jihad in Pakistan it promoted during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan) as those objectives for which the revolution was engineered, have been achieved.

革命的目标是推翻沙阿。到1979年，沙阿已经逐渐远离美国的影响。在伊朗民众眼中，能够取代他的一个可信的替代者，是美国的一项关键战略优先事项。阿亚图拉霍梅尼与美国之间为组织这场“革命”而进行的会晤，已得到当时的苏丹领导人萨迪克·马赫迪的证实，他曾是美国与霍梅尼之间的调解人；前司法部长拉姆齐·克拉克也得到了证实，他于1979年与霍梅尼进行了直接会谈。革命之后，由霍梅尼领导的“保守派”实际控制了军队、司法、情报和安全机构。尽管伊朗反美言论不断，但它从未停止向美国供应石油，也从未终止与美国的任何协议。由于强硬派身居这些关键职位，美国至今未能彻底扭转伊朗的伊斯兰革命。正是这些强硬派在发展核武器、购买先进武器以巩固自身地位，而美国则试图阻止这一切。

The revolution’s objectives were to overthrow the Shah who had by 1979 moved away from US influence. His replacement by a credible alternative in the eyes of the people of Iran was a key US strategic priority. The meetings between Ayatollah Khomeini and the US to organise the ‘revolution,’ have been confirmed by the then Sudanese leader Sadeq Al-Mehdi, who was the mediator between the US and Khomeini, as well as the former Attorney General, Ramsey Clark who held direct talks with Khomeini in 1979. The revolution led to the ‘conservatives’ led by Khomeini taking effective control of the military, judiciary, intelligence and security apparatus. For all the anti-US rhetoric from Iran it never stopped supplying the US with oil and never ended any agreements with them. With the hardliners in such key positions the US has been unable to completely reverse the Islamic revolution in Iran. It is the same hardliners who are working on developing nuclear weapons and purchasing sophisticated weaponry in order to strengthen their position whilst the US is attempting to end this.

伊朗社会如今有超过70%的人口年龄在30岁以下；这意味着伊朗的大多数人在伊斯兰革命发生时甚至还未出生。如此年轻的人口却由信奉革命理想的保守派统治，而民众对这些理想几乎已无认同。美国直接与学生团体和政府中的改革派接触，同时也明确表示，一旦美国的利益受到威胁，它准备采取军事行动。

Iranian society today has over 70% of its population under the age of 30; this means the majority of the people in Iran were not even born when the Islamic revolution took place. Such a young population is ruled by conservatives who believe in the revolution’s ideals, whilst the public have very little with such ideals. The US has directly engaged with student groups and the reformists in government but is also making it clear that it is prepared to act militarily when US interests are at stake.

美国面临的最大问题是究竟如何实现这一目标：应当通过接触对话，还是通过军事力量来改变德黑兰的行为？自乔治·W·布什入主白宫以来，这个问题便一直困扰着布什政府，也正是它导致了相互矛盾的信号。

The biggest problem the US faces is how exactly to achieve this. Should this be through engagement or military force in order to change Tehran’s behaviour? This has actually plagued the Bush administration ever since George W. Bush rose to office and is what sends mixed signals.

问题的核心在于现实主义者与新保守派之间关于对伊朗最佳政策路径的争论。这场分歧贯穿美国政府的各个部门，并使国务院、五角大楼和中央情报局等机构产生分裂。关于伊朗的分歧在2004年7月达到顶点，当时外交关系委员会（CFR）在吉米·卡特总统的国家安全顾问兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基博士的指导下发表了题为《伊朗：是时候采取新方针》的报告。该报告认为，伊朗并不具备新保守派所主张的政权更迭条件。报告指出：“尽管政治局势存在相当大的动荡，民众也颇为不满，伊朗仍不会爆发另一场革命。那些致力于维护伊朗现行体制的力量依然牢牢掌握着控制权。”报告还强调，试图一揽子解决华盛顿与德黑兰之间所有未决冲突的“大交易”并不现实，会谈应转而聚焦于在一系列关键问题上取得“渐进式进展”，其中包括地区稳定和伊朗的核野心。

At the heart of the issue was the dispute between the realists and the neoconservatives regarding the best approach towards Iran. The row permeated all sections of the US government and divided institutions like the State Department, the Pentagon and the CIA. The disagreements over Iran came to ahead in July 2004 with the publication of the report entitled ‘Iran: Time for a New Approach’ which was prepared by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) under the direction of Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Adviser. The report argued that Iran was not ripe for regime change as advocated by the neoconservatives. The report stated: ‘Despite considerable political flux and popular dissatisfaction. Iran is not on the verge of another revolution. Those forces that are committed to preserving Iran's current system remain firmly in control.’ The report also stressed, that a ‘grand bargain’ to settle all outstanding conflicts between Washington and Tehran is unrealistic and that talks should focus instead on making ‘incremental progress’ on a variety of key issues, including regional stability and Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

报告的建议立即遭到与副总统迪克·切尼和时任国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德关系密切的新保守派的否决。资深新保守派人物迈克尔·莱登认为德黑兰是全球“伊斯兰恐怖大师”的首都，他在《国家评论在线》上撰文称，对外关系委员会的建议“令人蒙羞”，构成了“姑息”。然而，在布什的第二个任期内，随着伊拉克的惨败，新保守派的影响力大为下降。保罗·沃尔福威茨和约翰·博尔顿等一些新保守派人士被排挤出外交政策制定岗位，转而在世界银行和联合国担任政策执行职务，而道格拉斯·法伊斯等人则被迫离职。新保守派的离开使布什政府的外交转向现实主义和软实力。美国国务院与五角大楼在外交事务上的影响力在很大程度上重新趋于平衡。与其他国家合作解决苏丹、黎巴嫩、朝鲜和伊朗的政治危机，让人想起此前美国历届政府所采用的多边主义。

The recommendations of the report were instantly dismissed by the neoconservatives who were closely associated with Vice President Dick Cheney and the then defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Arch neoconservative Micheal Ledeen, who considers Tehran the global capital of Islamist ‘terror masters,’ wrote in National Review Online that the CFR recommendations were ‘humiliating’ and constituted ‘appeasement.’ However, in Bush’s second term of office and with the debacle of Iraq, the Neocons influence declined considerably. Some of the neoconservatives like Paul Wolfowitz and John Bolton were ushered out of foreign policy making roles and given policy implementation roles at the World Bank and the UN, while others like Douglas Feith were forced to leave. The departure of the neoconservatives gave way to realism and soft power in the Bush administration. To a large extent parity was restored between the influence of the US State Department and Pentagon over foreign policy matters. Collaboration with other nations to solve the political crisis in Sudan, Lebanon, North Korean, and Iran is reminiscent of multilateralism employed by previous US administrations.

布什政府中现实主义的占上风，并没有完全压制新保守主义对伊朗的看法。始终在场的迪克·切尼是新保守主义的坚定支持者，他一直致力于确保，一旦时机出现，美国已做好准备，使用压倒性武力对伊朗动手，占领其油气田。

The ascendancy of realism in the Bush administration has not completely silenced neoconservative views on Iran. The ever present Dick Cheney an ardent supporter of neo-conservatism has taken it upon himself to ensure that should the opportunity avail itself, America is prepared to use overwhelming force against Iran to occupy its oil and gas fields.

总之，美国与伊朗之间的冲突是真实存在的，但在许多领域，这一冲突已被搁置一旁，双方正在进行合作。布什政府中的现实主义者如今占据上风，他们处理伊朗核计划的首选方式是多边主义与外交，而非单边主义与军事干预。

In summary, the conflict between the US and Iran is real, however there are many areas where this conflict has been put aside and cooperation is taking place. The realists in the Bush administration now have the upper hand and their preferred method of dealing with Iran’s nuclear programme is through multilateralism and diplomacy, as opposed to unilateralism and military intervention.

然而，布什政府未能压制那些主张对伊朗采取军事行动的声音，这一点仍令世界感到担忧。

However, the failure of the Bush administration to subdue those voices who exhort military action against Iran continues to alarm the world.