"Hakuna rais wa Marekani katika historia aliyewahi kuwa na uhusiano wa karibu kiasi hiki na nchi nyingine ya kigeni—na ninazungumzia hasa marais wote wawili wa Bush—... tulikuwa na mkataba na Saudi Arabia katika uhusiano ulioanza miaka 40 iliyopita..."

“Never before in history has a president of the United States— and I'm really referring to both President Bushes—has had such a close relationship with another foreign power... we had a pact with Saudi Arabia in a relationship that's gone back 40 years...

"Tunapata mafuta, tunawauzia silaha, na sehemu ya mkataba ulikuwa kwamba hatukuangalia kwa karibu kile kilichokuwa kikitokea kweli nchini Saudi Arabia." -- Craig Unger Tarehe 25 Aprili 2005, Mwana Mfalme Abdullah alimtembelea George Bush kujadili masuala mbalimbali, kuanzia mchakato wa amani wa Mashariki ya Kati hadi kupambana na ugaidi. Hata hivyo, kiini cha ziara ya Abdullah kilikuwa kumwasilisha Rais Bush pendekezo jipya la kuongeza uzalishaji wa mafuta wa Saudi Arabia ambalo lingesaidia kwa kiasi fulani kupunguza shinikizo kwenye bei ya mafuta ghafi.

we get oil, we sell them weapons, and part of the pact was we didn't look too closely at what was really going on in Saudi Arabia.” -- Craig Ugnar n April 25 2005, Crown Prince Abdullah visited George Bush to discuss a number of issues ranging from the Middle East peace process to fighting terrorism. However, the centrepiece of Abdullah’ s visit was to present President Bush with a fresh proposal to boost Saudi oil production that would go some way towards easing pressure on the price of crude oil.

Ziara hiyo ilipangwa kwa uangalifu ili iambatane na tangazo la Bush la mkakati mpya wa nishati, lililolenga kukabiliana na wasiwasi unaoongezeka miongoni mwa kampuni za mafuta na Wamarekani wa kawaida kwamba sera ya utawala kuhusu mafuta inadhoofika na inaidhuru uchumi wa Marekani.

The visit was carefully scripted to coincide with Bush’ s announcement of a new energy strategy to counter growing concerns amongst oil companies and ordinary Americans that the administration’ s oil policy was faltering and hurting the US economy.

Ukosoaji kutoka kwa kampuni za mafuta umechochewa na ukosefu wa maendeleo katika kuhakikisha mafuta ya Iraq yanalindwa. Licha ya kutenga $16

Criticism from oil companies has been fuelled by the lack of progress made in securing Iraq’ s oil. Despite devoting $1.6

...bilioni za Kongresi kwa ajili ya kuendeleza miundombinu ya mafuta ya Iraq, lakini Iraq bado inazalisha asilimia 25 chini ya viwango vya mwanzoni mwa mwaka 2003, kabla ya uvamizi wa Marekani wa kuiondoa madarakani Saddam Hussein. Uasi maarufu wa Iraq umepunguza mtiririko wa mafuta hadi kiasi kidogo sana. Hujuma dhidi ya bomba la mafuta kuelekea Uturuki zimezuia usafirishaji kutoka kwenye mashamba ya kaskazini, karibu na Kirkuk, na ghasia zimekwamisha juhudi za kuboresha mashamba makubwa ya kusini. Matokeo yake ni kwamba Iraq ilisafirisha mapipa milioni 1.43 ya mafuta ghafi mwezi uliopita, idadi iliyopungua kwa mapipa 30,000 ikilinganishwa na Machi. Hii iko mbali sana na mapipa milioni 4 yaliyotabiriwa na baadhi ya wachambuzi baada ya vita.

billion of Congressional aid to develop Iraqi oil infrastructure, Iraq is still producing 25 percent lower than levels in early 2003, before the U.S. invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. The popular Iraqi insurgency has reduced the flow of oil to a trickle. The sabotage of a pipeline to Turkey has restricted exports from Iraq's northern fields, around Kirkuk, and violence has hampered efforts to modernize the larger southern fields. The result is that Iraq exported 1.43 million barrels of crude oil last month, down 30,000 barrels from March. This is nowhere near the 4 million barrels forecasted by some analysts in the aftermath of the war.

Aidha, wakurugenzi wa makampuni ya mafuta ya Marekani wamekasirishwa zaidi na wanamapinduzi-mamboleo (neo-conservatives), ambao wanawalaumu kwa kuchochea uasi kupitia ubinafsishaji wa sekta ya mafuta ya Iraq badala ya kuirudisha mikononi mwa serikali. Mpango wa kutaifisha mafuta ya Iraq, uliowasilishwa na sekta ya mafuta ya Marekani, ulipitwa dakika za mwisho na mpango wa wanamapinduzi-mamboleo wa kubinafsisha mafuta ya Iraq na kuiangamiza OPEC.

In addition, US oil executives have been further aggrieved by the neo-conservatives whom they blame for encouraging the insurgency through the privatization of Iraq’ s oil industry as opposed to its re-nationalization. The plan to nationalize Iraqi oil, which was put forward by the US oil industry, was superseded at the last minute by a neoconservative plan to privatize Iraq’ s oil and destroy OPEC.

Katika machafuko yaliyofuatia enzi ya baada ya Saddam, kampuni za mafuta za Marekani zilizuiwa kunufaika na mashamba ya mafuta ya Iraq, jambo lililokwamisha juhudi zao za kuongeza usambazaji wa mafuta wa Iraq.

In the ensuing chaos of the post Saddam era, the US oil companies were prevented from exploiting Iraq’ s oil fields thereby hindering their efforts to increase Iraqi oil supply.

Kushindwa kufanya kazi na mashamba ya mafuta ya Iraq kulikuwa pigo kubwa kwa kampuni za mafuta za Marekani. Kwa mujibu wa Idara ya Nishati ya Marekani, gharama za kuanzisha uzalishaji mpya nchini Iraq ni miongoni mwa za chini kabisa duniani. Hadi sasa ni mashamba 15 tu kati ya 74 ndiyo yameendelezwa; akiba inayojulikana ni mapipa bilioni 112, lakini baadhi ya watabiri wanasema huenda ikazidi mapipa bilioni 300. Kwa viwango vya urejeshaji vya asilimia 50

Failure to work with Iraq’ s oil fields was a huge blow to American oil companies. According to the United States Department of Energy the costs of bringing new production on line in Iraq are among the lowest in the world. As of yet only 15 of its 74 fields have been developed; known reserves are 112 billion barrels, but some predict it may turn out to exceed 300 billion barrels. With recovery rates of 50

...asilimia na akiba ya mapipa bilioni 250, mafuta ya Iraq yanaweza kuwa na thamani ya zaidi ya dola trilioni 3.

per cent and reserves of 250 billion barrels, Iraqi oil could be worth more than $3 trillion.

Upande wa ndani, wateja wamelazimika kuvumilia bei ya petroli inayopanda kwenye vituo vya kujazia mafuta, na wengi wanamlaumu Bush kwa sehemu kubwa ya matatizo ya nishati ya Marekani. Kura ya maoni ya hivi karibuni ya Associated Press-AOL ilionyesha umma ukimpa rais alama duni kwa jinsi anavyoshughulikia matatizo ya nishati, huku asilimia 62 wakisema hawaridhiki nayo. Wanachama wa Chama cha Kidemokrasia wametumia viwango hivyo duni vya kuidhinishwa kusisitiza hoja kwamba utawala wa Bush haujafanya karibu chochote kuwaokoa wananchi walioathirika na bei kubwa ya mafuta. “Miaka mitano baadaye, na Wamarekani wanaoteseka chini ya bei ya rekodi ya petroli bado wanasubiri kuona rais akitimiza ahadi yake ya kuishinikiza OPEC,” alisema Seneta John Kerry.

On the domestic front, consumers have had to put up with soaring gas prices at the pump and blame Bush for much of America’ s energy woes. A recent Associated Press-AOL poll found the public giving the president low marks for his handling of energy problems, with 62 percent saying they disapproved. The democrats have seized on the poor approval ratings to drive home the point that the Bush administration has done next to nothing to rescue the beleaguered public from high oil prices. “Five years later, and Americans suffering under record-high gas prices are still waiting to see the president keep his promise to jawbone OPEC,”ix said Senator John Kerry.

Utawala wa Bush, ukikabiliwa na wimbi linalozidi kuongezeka la ukosoaji, umejibu kwa kuwaondoa katika kutunga sera watu wenye ushawishi wa kundi la neoconservatives, kama Wolfowitz na Bolton, na kuwapeleka katika kutekeleza sera. Utawala pia umeiomba Saudi Arabia ibuni mpango unaoongeza kwa kiasi kikubwa uwezo wake wa uzalishaji wa mafuta. Mpango huo, ulioelezwa na Waziri wa Mafuta wa Saudi Arabia, Ali Naimi, kabla ya ziara ya Abdullah huko Texas, unapendekeza kutumia dola bilioni 50 kwa kipindi cha miaka mitano ili kuongeza uwezo wa uzalishaji wa Saudi Arabia hadi mapipa milioni 12.5 kwa siku ifikapo mwaka 2009, kutoka kikomo cha sasa cha mapipa milioni 11. Iwapo itahitajika, Saudi Arabia inasema hatimaye itaendeleza uwezo wa mapipa milioni 15 kwa siku. Mshauri wa Usalama wa Taifa wa Marekani, Stephen Hadley, aliuelezea mpango wa Saudi Arabia kama mafanikio makubwa. Alisema, "Kilichopatikana hasa ni mpango wa kuongeza uzalishaji kupitia uwekezaji mkubwa, kwa kiasi cha dola bilioni 50 baada ya muda. Kwa hiyo ni mpango mkubwa walioanzisha." Licha ya uwekezaji huu mkubwa wa kuongeza uchumi wa Marekani, Wasaudi pia wanapanga kuwapa kampuni za nishati za Marekani faida kubwa kwa kuwaalika kuwekeza katika sekta nyingine za nishati za Saudi Arabia. Akizungumza mbele ya hadhira ya wafanyabiashara wa Kimarekani waliondaliwa na Baraza la Biashara la Saudi-Marekani (SABC) katika Hoteli ya Fairmont, Mkuu wa Mfalme Abdullah alitangaza nia yake ya kuandaa mkutano wa Jukwaa la Kimataifa la Nishati (IEF) katika robo ya mwisho ya mwaka 2005. Alisema, "Tunawaalika muendelee kushirikiana nasi katika sekta za madini na gesi, ambazo zinatoa fursa nyingi za uwekezaji. Kuna fursa nyingi na mafanikio yamehakikishwa, Mungu akipenda. Unaweza kuchagua uwekezaji wa moja kwa moja au kuanzisha miradi ya pamoja." Mkuu wa Mfalme Abdullah pia anapanga kurahisisha kwa wafanyabiashara wa Kimarekani kuchukua mali kutoka nchini kwa kupendekeza kulegeza sheria zinazolinda uchumi changa wa Saudi Arabia. Akizungumzia mageuzi ya kiuchumi, Abdullah alisema, "Tumetunga sheria ya kodi iliyo wazi na yenye unyumbufu, tumepanga upya soko la fedha ili liendane na viwango vya kimataifa, na tumeharakisha mchakato wa ubinafsishaji." Ni dhahiri kwamba Wamarekani ndio watakaonufaika kweli kweli na mpango wa Abdullah. Kwanza, Wasaudi watatumia dola bilioni 50 kuongeza uzalishaji wa mafuta ghafi ili tu kujaza soko la mafuta la kimataifa na kufanya bei yake ishuke. Hili litapunguza kwa kiasi kikubwa faida ya Saudia na kuidhuru sana uchumi wa nchi hiyo. Kwa upande mwingine, mafuta ghafi ya bei nafuu yatakuwa baraka kwa uchumi wa Marekani, ambao kwa sasa unayumba kutokana na bei kubwa ya mafuta.

The Bush administration faced with the growing tide of criticism has responded by removing influential neoconservatives like Wolfowitz and Bolton away from policy making to policy execution. The administration has also asked the Saudi’ s to come up with a plan that dramatically increases its oil production capacity. The plan outlined by Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi before Abdullah’ s visit to Texas, proposes to spend $50 billion over a five–year period to increase Saudi production capacity to 12.5 million barrels per day by 2009 from the current 11 million limit. If necessary, Saudi Arabia says it will eventually develop a capacity of 15 million barrels a day. US National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley described the Saudi plan as a major breakthrough. He said, “What really came was a plan for increasing production through substantial investment — to the tune of about $50 billion over time. So it's a major initiative that they've undertaken."x Notwithstanding this huge investment to supplement America’ s economy, the Saudi’ s also plan to give US energy companies a huge bonanza by inviting them to invest in Saudi Arabia’ s other energy sectors. Addressing an audience of American businessmen organized by the Saudi-American Business Council (SABC) at the Fairmont Hotel, Prince Abdullah announced his intention to host a conference of the International Energy Forum (IEF) in the last quarter of 2005. He said, “We invite you to continue to cooperate with us in the mining and gas sectors which offer a number of investment opportunities. There are many opportunities and success is guaranteed, God willing. You can choose direct investment or establish joint projects.” Crown Prince Abdullah also plans to make it easier for American businessmen to take wealth out of the country by proposing to relax the laws protecting the fledging Saudi economy. Speaking about the economic reforms, Abdullah said, “We have enacted a clear and flexible taxation law, reorganized the financial market so that it matches international standards and have expedited the privatization process.” Clearly the Americans will be the real beneficiaries of Abdullah’ s plan. Firstly, the Saudi’ s will spend $50 billion to increase the production of crude oil only to flood the international oil market and have its price reduced. This will sharply diminish Saudi profits and significantly damage the country’ s economy. On the other hand, cheap crude oil will be a godsend to the American economy, which at present is reeling from high oil prices.

Pili, Wasaudi watalipa kampuni za mafuta za Marekani mabilioni ya dola ili kufanya kazi zinazohitajika kuongeza uwezo wa uzalishaji wa mafuta. Hili halitaleta uhamishaji wa teknolojia wala kuunda ajira za kutosha kupunguza idadi inayoongezeka ya watu wasio na ajira nchini Saudi Arabia. Kwa sasa, kiwango cha ukosefu wa ajira ni 20% (takwimu halisi inaweza kufikia 30%). Lakini takwimu hii inaweza kuongezeka zaidi, kwa kuwa idadi ya watu wa Saudi Arabia itaongezeka mara mbili kutoka milioni 20 hadi milioni 40 kufikia mwaka 2020. Kwa hiyo, matarajio ya Wasaudi wanaotafuta ajira katika siku za karibuni yanaonekana kuwa ya giza sana.

Secondly, the Saudi’ s will be paying American oil companies billions of dollars to carry out the necessary work to increase the capacity of oil production. It will neither result in transfer of technology nor create sufficient jobs to lessen Saudi Arabia’ s burgeoning unemployment figures. At present, the unemployment rate is at 20% (the real figure could be as high as 30%). But this figure could increase even further, given that the Saudi population is going to double from 20 million to 40 million by 2020. Hence the outlook for Saudi’ s seeking employment in the near future looks extremely bleak.

Tatu, mpango wa ubinafsishaji pamoja na sheria legevu za kodi utasababisha umiliki wa Kimarekani wa baadhi ya mali muhimu za Saudi Arabia, kama vile Kampuni ya Mawasiliano ya Saudi (Saudi Telecom Company). Zaidi ya hayo, kwa kisingizio cha kutoa huduma bora za umma, kampuni kubwa za Kimarekani zitatoza bei za juu na kupata faida kubwa, ambapo sehemu ndogo sana tu ya faida hiyo itarudishwa kwenye uchumi wa Saudi. Sehemu kubwa itapelekwa kurudi Marekani, na baadhi yake itaishia kwenye akaunti za nje za wakuu wa familia ya kifalme ya Saudi.

Thirdly, the privatization drive coupled with loose taxation laws will result in American ownership of some of Saudi Arabia’ s vital assets like the Saudi Telecom Company. In addition, under the pretext of providing better public services, the American multinationals will charge higher prices and generate huge profits, very little of which will be ploughed back into the Saudi economy. Most of it will be repatriated back to the US, whilst some of it will end up in the foreign accounts of Saudi princes.

Nne, ingawa biashara ya pande mbili kati ya Saudi Arabia na Marekani imeongezeka kutoka kiasi kidogo cha dola milioni 160 mwaka 1970 hadi dola bilioni 26 mwaka 2004, watu wa Saudi katika kipindi hiki wamezidi kuwa maskini. Mwaka 1999, pato la ndani la kila mtu lilikuwa chini ya lilivyokuwa mwaka 1965, kabla ya kupanda kwa kubwa kwa bei za mafuta. Kwa hiyo, kwa kuwaalika Wamarekani kuwekeza katika vyanzo vingine vya nishati, Abdullah anauza mustakabali wa watu wa Saudi kwa utumwa wa Kimarekani.

Fourthly, though the bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia and the US has increased from a measly sum of $160 million in 1970 to $26 billion in 2004, the Saudi people during this period have become increasingly poor. In 1999, the per capita GDP was less than it was in 1965, before the massive rise in oil prices. So by inviting the Americans to invest in other energy reserves, Abdullah is signing away the future of the Saudi people to American slavery.

Bila kushangaza, utawala wa Bush ulikubali mpango wa Abdullah na kuujumuisha kama sehemu ya mkakati wao mpya wa nishati. Mkakati huu unajumuisha kubadilisha kambi za kijeshi kuwa viwanda vya kusafisha mafuta, kuchunguza njia za kuchimba akiba ya mafuta ya Marekani, na kuchunguza nishati safi zaidi.

Not surprisingly, the Bush administration embraced Abdullah’ s plan and included it, as part of their revitalized energy strategy. This consists of turning military bases into oil refineries, exploring ways of tapping US oil reserves and exploring cleaner fuels.

Kwa hiyo, Bush alipotangaza sera yake mpya ya nishati, alifanikiwa kushusha bei ya mafuta ghafi. Hili linaelezea sababu ya ziara ya Abdullah huko Texas, na lilithibitishwa na Mshauri wa Usalama wa Taifa Stephen Hadley, aliyesema, "Tatizo katika soko la mafuta kwa sasa ni dhana kwamba uwezo haitoshi." Uhakika unaoweza kutolewa kwa soko kuhusu upatikanaji wa usambazaji, alisema, unapaswa "kuwa na shinikizo la kushusha bei." Kauli ya Hadley pia inadokeza asili ya kubadilika-badilika ya uhakika huu. Mengi yanategemea uwezo wa utawala wa Bush kushinda upinzani kutoka kwa wanamazingira na makundi mengine ya shinikizo yanayopinga uchimbaji wa mafuta katika maeneo kama Alaska, pamoja na ubadilishaji wa kambi zilizopo za kijeshi kuwa viwanda vya kusafisha mafuta.

Therefore, when Bush unveiled his rejuvenated energy policy, he succeeded in pushing down the price of crude oil. This explains the reason behind Abdullah’ s visit to Texas and was confirmed by National Security Adviser Stephen Headley who said, "The problem in the oil market now is a perception that there is inadequate capacity." Reassurance that can be given to the market on available supply, he said, should "have a downward pressure on the price." Hadley’ s statement also alludes to the fickle nature of this reassurance. Much is dependent upon the Bush administration’ s ability to overcome resistance from environmentalists and other pressure groups who are opposed to the drilling for oil in places like Alaska and also to the conversion of existing military bases into oil refineries.

Kwa kuzingatia hilo, mkakati wa nishati wa Bush ni wa kujihami.

In this respect, Bush’ s energy strategy is a defensive one.

Baada ya kushindwa nchini Iraq, utawala umelazimika kutafuta njia za kuongeza uzalishaji wa mafuta ya Marekani ndani ya nchi.

Having failed in Iraq, the administration has been forced into exploring ways to boost the domestic output of US oil.

Majira ya baridi yanapokaribia na OPEC inazalisha mafuta kwa kiwango cha juu zaidi, kumekuwa na mbio katika Ikulu ya Marekani kutafuta njia za kuzuia mgogoro ujao.

With winter approaching and OPEC pumping oil to its maximum, the race is on in the White House to find ways to stymie the next crisis.

Hata hivyo, hali ya sasa ya Marekani inatoa fursa bora kwa Wasaudi kuwakomboa watu wao kutoka kwenye utawala wa Marekani. Lau Nyumba ya Saud ingekuwa ya dhati kuhusu hili, ingeweza kutumia mikakati kadhaa ili kukata utegemezi wao kwa Marekani.

However, America’ s current predicament presents an ideal opportunity for the Saudi’ s to free their people from American hegemony. Had the House of Saud been sincere about this, they could have employed number of strategies to sever their dependency on the US.

Waarabu wa Saudi wangeweza kusitisha usambazaji wa mafuta ghafi, kuyaondoa mafuta hayo katika mfumo wa dola na kuyauza kwa sarafu kama Euro au Yuan (sarafu ya China). Hatua kama hii ingeilazimisha dunia kuuza dola kwa haraka ili kupata sarafu ya kubadilishana inayopendelewa na Saudi Arabia. Hatua kama hii pia ingezilazimisha nguvu kama Ulaya na hasa China, nchi yenye tofauti kubwa na Marekani, kupinga hatua zozote za Marekani dhidi ya Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi’ s could have cut the supply of crude oil, decoupled it from the dollar and sold it in currency like the Euro or the Yuan (Chinese currency). This would force the world to quickly sell the dollar in return for the Saudi’ s preferred currency of exchange. A move like this would also force powers like Europe and especially China, a country that has sharp differences with the US to counter any US manoeuvres against Saudi Arabia.

Wasaudi Arabia pia wangeweza kubadilishana baadhi ya mafuta yao kwa teknolojia na viwanda vizito, na hivyo kupunguza utegemezi wa wafanyakazi wa kigeni na kuunda ajira mpya. Kwa njia hii, Wasaudi wangeweza kuelekeza uchumi wao kuelekea njia ya kujitegemea na ustawi wa kiuchumi.

The Saudi’ s could also barter some of their oil in exchange for technology and heavy industry thereby reducing dependency on foreign workers and creating new jobs. In this way the Saudi’ s could steer their economy towards a path of self–sufficiency and economic prosperity.

Haiwezekani sana kwamba Abdullah na Nyumba ya Saud wangechagua mawazo makali kama hayo, kwa kuwa kuwepo kwao kunategemea uungwaji mkono wa Waingereza na Waamerika.

It is very unlikely that Abdullah and the House of Saud would opt for such radical ideas, as their very existence depends upon Anglo-American support.

Mawazo haya yanaweza kufuatiliwa tu katika mazingira huru kutoka kwa watu wa Anglo-Amerika wanaotumiwa kama vibaraka na wanaotawala utawala wa Saudia. Ni Khilafah pekee inayoweza kuleta mazingira ambamo Wasaudia wanaweza kufurahia uhuru wa kisiasa na enzi ya kiuchumi bila udhibiti wa kigeni.

These ideas can only be pursued in an environment that is free from Anglo-American surrogates who dominate the Saudi regime. Only the Caliphate can produce an environment where the Saudi’ s can enjoy political independence and economic sovereignty free from foreign control.

Mei 10, 2005

May 10, 2005