“Pia walitoa msaada mkubwa kwa Operesheni Uhuru wa Kudumu. Tehran ilitoa pendekezo la kuruhusu ndege za usafirishaji za Marekani kuanzia kwenye viwanja vya ndege vya mashariki mwa Iran ili kusaidia operesheni magharibi mwa Afghanistan. Ilikubali kufanya kazi za utafutaji na uokoaji kwa marubani wa Marekani waliodondoka kwa parachuti juu ya Iran... Wairani walishawishi Muungano wa Kaskazini na kuusaidia kuamini kwamba Washington ilikuwa makini kabisa, na kwamba kwa hiyo Muungano wa Kaskazini unapaswa kushiriki kikamilifu katika juhudi za vita vya Marekani.” -- Kenneth Pollack Tarehe 15 Septemba 2008, Shirika la Kimataifa la Nishati ya Atomiki lilitoa ripoti kwamba Iran ilikuwa imezuia mara kadhaa uchunguzi wa Umoja wa Mataifa uliolenga kuchunguza madai kwamba ilijaribu kutengeneza silaha za nyuklia. Matokeo ya ripoti hiyo yalitumiwa tena na mataifa ya Magharibi kuionyesha Iran kama nchi iliyotengwa na tishio kwa majirani zake. Marekani, Ufaransa, Uingereza na Israeli wameibua uwezekano wa vikwazo vipya vya kuiadhibu Iran kwa kile wanachokiona kuwa ukaidi wake kuhusu mpango wake wa nyuklia wa amani.

“They [Iranians] also provided considerable assistance to Operation Enduring Freedom. Tehran offered to allow American transport aircraft to stage from airfields in eastern Iran to assist operations in western Afghanistan. It agreed to perform searchand- rescue missions for downed American airmen who bailed over Iran...The Iranians weighed in with the Northern Alliance and helped convince it that Washington was deadly serious and that therefore the Northern Alliance should participate fully in the American war effort.” -- Kenneth Pollack n 15 September 2008 the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran had repeatedly blocked a UN investigation to probe allegations that it had tried to make nuclear weapons. The findings of the report were once again seized upon by Western powers to portray Iran as a pariah state and a menace to its neighbours. America, France, Britain and Israel have raised the spectre of a new set of sanctions to punish in their view Iran’ s intransigence over its peaceful nuclear programme.

Msemaji wa Ikulu ya Marekani, Gordon Johndroe, alisema, "Tunaitaka Iran isitishe shughuli zake za kurutubisha urani na kuchakata upya, vinginevyo itakabiliwa na utekelezaji zaidi wa vikwazo vilivyopo vya Baraza la Usalama la Umoja wa Mataifa na uwezekano wa vikwazo vipya."xii Msemaji wa Wizara ya Mambo ya Nje ya Ufaransa, Eric Chevallier, alisema, "Hatuna chaguo jingine zaidi ya kufanya kazi katika siku na wiki zijazo kuelekea azimio jipya la vikwazo la Baraza la Usalama (la Umoja wa Mataifa)"xiii. Msemaji wa Ofisi ya Waziri Mkuu wa Israel, Mark Regev, alisema, "Hii ni ishara nyingine wazi kwamba utawala wa Iran unacheza michezo na jumuiya ya kimataifa kwa sera ya udanganyifu. … Sasa ni wajibu wa jumuiya ya kimataifa kuongeza shinikizo kwa Teheran."xiv Iran, kwa upande wake, ilitetea msimamo wake na kukanusha madai ya Marekani kuhusu mpango wake wa nyuklia wa amani.

White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said, "We urge Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities or face further implementation of the existing United Nations Security Council sanctions and the possibility of new sanctions."xii French Foreign Ministry spokesman Eric Chevallier said, ”We have no other choice than to work in the days and weeks to come toward a new (UN) Security Council sanctions resolution”xiii. Israel’ s Prime Minister's Office spokesman Mark Regev said, “This is another clear signal that the Iranian regime is playing games with the international community with a policy of deception. … It is now incumbent upon the international community to ratchet up the pressure on Teheran."xiv Iran on the other hand defended its stance and rebuffed American claims about its peaceful nuclear programme.

"Hatufikirii kwamba kunapaswa kuwepo jukwaa wazi ambalo Marekani inaweza kuleta dai jipya kila siku na kulipeleka kwa shirika hilo, huku ikitarajia Iran ijibu kila dai," alisema Alaeddin Borujerdi, mkuu wa kamati ya usalama wa taifa na mambo ya nje ya bunge.

"We do not think there should be an open forum so America can bring up a new claim every day and pass it on to the agency, expecting Iran to address any claim," said Alaeddin Borujerdi, head of parliament's national security and foreign affairs commission.

Iran ina haki kamili ya kukasirika. Hakuna ushahidi unaoonekana kwamba Iran ina mpango wa silaha za nyuklia. Baadhi ya taasisi zenye heshima za fikra za Magharibi na mashirika ya kijasusi yamewahi kusema bila shaka kwamba bomu la nyuklia la Iran liko mbali kwa miaka mingi.

Iran has every right to be angry. There is no tangible evidence that Iran has a nuclear weapons programme. A number of prestigious western think tanks and intelligence agencies in the past have unequivocally stated that Iranian nuclear bomb is many years away.

Zaidi ya hayo, ripoti ya hivi karibuni ya IAEA inasisitiza kwamba angalau Iran iko umbali wa miaka 2 kabla ya kumiliki uranium ya kutosha kutengeneza bomu—hata hapo, mchakato wenyewe ni mgumu kuumudu, na wachunguzi wengi wanatabiri kwamba utachukua miaka kadhaa.

Furthermore, the recent IAEA report stresses that at the very least Iran is 2 years away before it will possess enough uranium to make a bomb—even then the process is tedious to master and many observers predict it will take years.

Katika miaka mitano iliyopita, hali ya uhasama katika uhusiano kati ya Marekani na Iran imefuata mkondo unaojulikana vizuri, na mzozo kuhusu mpango wa nyuklia wa Iran pamoja na kupanda kwa madaraka kwa Ahmadinejad umechukua nafasi kuu.

Over the past 5 years, the bellicose nature of U.S.-Iran relations have followed a well trodden trajectory, and the tiff over Iran’ s nuclear programme and the ascendency of Ahmadinejad has played a pivotal role.

Hivyo ni kusema kwamba matamshi makali yanayotolewa na Washington na Tehran, yakisukwa pamoja na ushirikiano wa siri baina ya hizo pande mbili, yamesababisha Marekani kuimarisha uwepo wake katika eneo hilo. Kutulizwa kwa Iraq na Afghanistan ya Magharibi, mipangilio mipya ya kiusalama pamoja na nchi za Ghuba, na msukumo nyuma ya kupelekwa kwa mpango wa ngao ya makombora ya Marekani barani Ulaya ni baadhi ya manufaa ambayo watunga sera wa Marekani wameyapata. Hata sasa, mazoezi ya jeshi la anga la Iran, jukumu jipya la Walinzi wa Mapinduzi la kulinda Ghuba ya Uajemi, na ujanja wa jeshi la majini la Marekani vinapaswa kutazamwa ndani ya muktadha huu.

That is to say fiery rhetoric employed by Washington and Tehran interwoven with covert collaboration between the two, has resulted in America consolidating its presence in the region. The pacifying of Iraq and Western Afghanistan, new security arrangements with the Gulf countries, impetus behind the deployment of U.S. missile shield programme in Europe are some of the benefits accrued by U.S. policy makers. Even now, Iranian air force exercises, the Revolutionary Guards new responsibility to defend the Persian Gulf and U.S. navy manoeuvres should be viewed within this context.

Kwa kuzidi, nyuma ya pazia kuna dalili zinazoongezeka kwamba uhusiano kati ya Marekani na Iran unaelekea kurejea katika hali ya kawaida.

Increasingly, behind the scenes there are growing signs that U.S.-Iranian relations are heading towards normalization.

Uwepo wa William Burns katika mazungumzo ya Geneva mwezi Julai, matarajio ya kuanzishwa kwa ujumbe wa kidiplomasia wa Marekani mjini Tehran, pamoja na kauli ya Obama inayorudiwa mara kwa mara kuhusu kushirikiana na Iran, vyote hivyo vinaashiria kuimarika kwa uhusiano.

The presence of William Burns in the Geneva talks in July, the prospects of the establishment of a U.S. diplomatic mission in Tehran and Obama’ s repeated mantra of engagement with Iran signal a warming of relations.

Siku ya Jumatatu, mawaziri watano wa zamani wa mambo ya nje wa Marekani, akiwemo Madeleine Albright, Colin Powell, Warren Christopher, Henry A. Kissinger na James A. Baker III, walitoa wito wa kuongeza ushirikiano na Iran. Kikwazo pekee kwa watunga sera wa Marekani ni msisitizo wa Israel wa kuondoa tishio la nyuklia la Iran, ambalo ni la kufikirika tu.

On Monday, five former U.S. Secretaries of State among them Madeleine Albright, Colin Powell, Warren Christopher, Henry A. Kissinger and James A. Baker III called for greater engagement with Iran. The only sticking point for American policy makers is Israel’ s insistence on neutralizing Iran’ s imagined nuclear threat.

Hadi sasa, Marekani imekataa mialiko ya Israeli ya kushambulia Iran. Marekani ilipunguza umuhimu wa maonyesho ya nguvu za anga ya Israeli juu ya Bahari ya Mediterania miezi michache iliyopita, na imekataa kuuza mabomu yenye nguvu ya GBU-29 ya kuvunja maboma.

Hitherto, America has snubbed Israeli advances to attack Iran. America played down Israel’ s show of air power over the Mediterranean a few months ago, and has refused to sell the powerful GBU-29 bunker-busters bombs.

Hata hivyo, uamuzi wa kuuza bomu la GBU-39, toleo dogo zaidi, ni njia ya Marekani ya kutuliza wasiwasi wa Israel.

Nonetheless, the decision to sell GBU-39 bomb a smaller version is America’ s way of assuaging Israel’ s concerns.

Huku utawala wa Bush ukiwa umezama katika homa ya uchaguzi, ni jambo lisilowezekana kwamba Marekani itakuwa vitani na Iran. Kwa kweli, kinyume chake ndicho kinachoweza kutokea—uhusiano kati ya Marekani na Iran unaweza kuimarika.

With the Bush administration embroiled in election fever, it is unlikely that the U.S. will be at war with Iran. In fact the opposite is likely to happen—warming of ties between the U.S. and Iran is on the cards.

Septemba 21, 2008

September 21, 2008