“65% wanataka kuunganisha nchi zote za Kiislamu kuwa dola moja ya Kiislamu au Khilafah.” -- WorldPublicOpinion.org Miezi michache iliyopita, Rais Bush alitangaza Mpango wake wa Mashariki ya Kati Kubwa (Greater Middle East Initiative) kama sehemu ya vita vyake vya kimataifa dhidi ya ugaidi. Lengo la mpango huo lilikuwa kulinda mfumo wa kisekula uliopo katika eneo zima kupitia kukuza uhuru na demokrasia. Lakini katika jamii za Mashariki ya Kati za leo, mpango wa Bush unaleta athari kinyume kabisa. Wanaharakati wa Kiislamu katika eneo lote wameonyesha mafanikio ambayo hayajawahi kutokea katika chaguzi za hivi karibuni, na sasa wanatoa changamoto ya moja kwa moja kwa tawala za kidikteta na kifalme zinazostawi chini ya ulinzi wa Marekani.

“65% want to unify all Islamic counties into a single Islamic state or Caliphate.” -- WorldPublicOpinion.org Not so long ago, President Bush announced his much coveted Greater Middle East Initiative as part of his global war on terrorism. The aim of the plan was to preserve the existing secular order across the region through the promotion of freedom and democracy. But in today’ s Middle Eastern societies, Bush’ s initiative is having just the opposite effect. Islamists throughout the region have shown unprecedented gains in recent elections and now pose a direct challenge to the dictatorships and monarchies that thrive under American patronage.

Wakati wa uchaguzi wa wabunge wa Misri mwaka 2005, Udugu wa Kiislamu (Muslim Brotherhood) ulipata asilimia 20 ya viti. Kama utawala wa Mubarak usingetumia vitisho katika raundi ya pili na ya tatu ya upigaji kura, idadi hiyo ingekuwa kubwa zaidi. Lakini licha ya mbinu za kikatili za utawala huo kuwakandamiza Waislamu wenye msimamo wa kisiasa, Udugu wa Kiislamu ulitumia kauli mbiu ya "Uislamu ndio suluhisho," na ulifanya vizuri zaidi kuliko wapinzani wa kidunia katika kupata uungwaji mkono mkubwa zaidi miongoni mwa wapiga kura wa Misri. Katika uchaguzi wa wabunge wa Iraq wa mwaka 2005, vyama vya kidini vilichukua kura nyingi za Wairaki. Kati ya viti 275 vya Baraza la Wawakilishi, Muungano wa Iraq wa Umoja, unaotawaliwa na Washia, ulishinda viti 128. Muungano huo unajumuisha Chama cha Dawa kinachoongozwa na Waziri Mkuu Ibrahim al-Jaafari, na Baraza Kuu la Mapinduzi ya Kiislamu nchini Iraq, linaloongozwa na Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. Muungano huo ulikosa kura 10 tu ili kupata wingi kamili. Wanamsimamo wa Kisunni wa Muungano wa Makubaliano wa Iraq walipata viti 44, huku Waislamu wa Kikurdi wakichukua viti 5.

During Egypt’ s parliamentary elections in 2005, the Muslim Brotherhood secured 20%xxii of the seats. Had not Mubarak’ s regime resorted to intimidation in the second and third rounds of the balloting, the figure would have been much higher. But despite the regimes brutal tactics to suppress the Islamists, the Muslim Brotherhood employed the slogan ‘Islam is the solution’ and outperformed secular rivals in garnering greater support amongst Egypt’ s electorate. In the Iraqi parliamentary elections of 2005, the religious parties took the bulk of the Iraqi votes. Of 275 seats in the Council of Representatives, the Shia dominated United Iraqi Alliance won 128 seats. The alliance includes the Dawa Party led by Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. The alliance fell 10 votes short of an absolute majority. The Sunni fundamentalists of the Iraqi Accord Front secured 44 seats, while Kurdish Islamists took 5

...viti. Kama Marekani na washirika wake hawangeingilia moja kwa moja mchakato wa uchaguzi, nguvu ya kura za Waislamu wenye msimamo wa kisiasa wa Kiislamu ingewaondoa kabisa wafuasi wa usekula. Hata hivyo, Baraza la Wawakilishi la Iraq litatawaliwa na wawakilishi wenye mwelekeo mkubwa wa kidini, na inatarajiwa watapitisha sera ambazo wao wanaziona kuwa za kisekula waziwazi. Matokeo ya uchaguzi wa Palestina uliopangwa kufanyika tarehe 25 Januari 2006 yanatarajiwa kufanana na matokeo ya uchaguzi wa Misri na Iraq.

seats. Had not America and her surrogates interfered directly in the electoral process, the strength of the Islamists’ vote would have completely marginalized the secularists. In any case, the Iraqi Council of Representatives will be dominated by representatives who have a strong religious disposition and are expected to throw out policies which they deem to be overtly secular. The outcome of the Palestinian election scheduled for January 25 2006 will probably mimic the election results of Egypt and Iraq.

Tayari wachunguzi wa maoni wanatabiri matokeo makubwa kwa Hamas, kundi linalopinga Israeli kwa bidii na lililoapa kuiangamiza.

Already pollsters are predicting a strong showing for Hamas which is avidly anti-Israeli and has vowed its destruction.

Hamas kusimamisha wagombea 62 kunatarajiwa kuchukua zaidi ya theluthi moja ya viti 132 vinavyopatikana katika Baraza la Kisheria la Palestina. Vitisho kutoka Israel vya kuizuia jumuiya hiyo kushiriki uchaguzi, pamoja na chuki ya Marekani dhidi ya msimamo wake mkali, vimeongeza umaarufu wa kundi hilo. Mbali na Fatah, vyama vingine vya kisekula haviwezi kuweka upinzani madhubuti dhidi ya ushawishi unaoongezeka wa Hamas na Waislamu wengine. Fatah, ambayo inayumbishwa na mifarakano ya ndani na inayoonekana sana kuwa fisadi, ndiyo itakayokuwa mshindwa mkuu.

Hamas fielding 62 candidates is projected to take more than a third of the 132 seats available in the Palestinian Legislative Council. Threats from Israel to preclude the organisation from contesting the election and America’ s dislike of its hard-line stance have boosted the group’ s popularity. Apart from Fatah, the other secular party’ s cannot mount an effective challenge to the growing influence of Hamas and other Islamists. Fatah reeling from internal schisms and widely viewed as being corrupt will be the main looser.

Mwelekeo wa Waislamu wenye msimamo mkali kuwashinda wanasekula katika chaguzi unarudiwa katika sehemu nyingine za ulimwengu wa Kiarabu. Kwa mfano, katika uchaguzi wa manispaa wa Saudi mwaka jana, Waislamu wenye msimamo mkali walishinda viti 6 kati ya 7 huko Riyadh, na wakashinda kabisa chaguzi za Jeddah na Makkah. Wagombea wanaoungwa mkono na Waislamu wenye msimamo mkali wa Kisunni pia walishinda udhibiti wa mabaraza ya manispaa katika miji kadhaa ya Mkoa wa Mashariki. Katika uchaguzi wa bunge wa mwaka 2003 nchini Yemen, Kundi la Mageuzi la Yemen (Islah), mchanganyiko wa vipengele vya Kiislamu na vya kikabila, lilishinda viti 46 kati ya 301 na sasa ndilo linaunda upinzani. Mwaka huo huo, Waislamu waliungana kushinda viti 17 kati ya 50 katika bunge la Kuwait, ambako ndio kundi kubwa la kiitikadi. Nchini Jordan, Bahrain na Morocco pia, Waislamu wamepata ushindi mara nyingi kwa gharama ya wanasekula.xxiii

The pattern of Islamists outshining secularists in elections is being repeated elsewhere in the Arab world. For instance in the Saudi municipal elections last year, Islamists won 6 of the 7 seats in Riyadh and swept the elections in Jeddah and Makkah. Candidates backed by Sunni Islamists also won control of the municipal councils in a number of towns in the Eastern Province. In the 2003 parliamentary election in Yemen, the Yemeni Reform Group (Islah), a combination of Islamist and tribal elements, won 46 of the 301 seats and now forms the opposition. That year, Islamists combined to win 17 of the 50 seats in the Kuwaiti parliament, where they form the dominant ideological bloc. In Jordan, Bahrain and Morocco too, Islamists have made gains often at the expense of secularistsxxiii.

Kuwepo kila mahali kwa Waislamu wenye msimamo wa kiitikadi (Islamists) na kupungua kwa kasi kwa wafuasi wa usekula kumebadilisha mandhari ya kisiasa ya ulimwengu wa Kiarabu. Dalili za awali zinaonyesha kwamba mabadiliko haya yatakuwa ya kudumu. Kulingana na kura ya maoni ya Zogby International-Sadat Chair ya mwaka 2004, miongoni mwa waliohojiwa nchini Jordan, Saudi Arabia na UAE, walisema kwamba viongozi wa dini wanapaswa kuwa na nafasi kubwa zaidi katika mifumo yao ya kisiasa.

The ubiquitous presence of Islamists and the rapid decline of the secularists have altered the political landscape of the Arab world. Early indications suggest that this transformation is going to be permanent. According to the 2004 Zogby International-Sadat Chair poll, of those surveyed in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE said the clergy should play a greater role in their political systems.

Asilimia hamsini ya Wamisri waliohojiwa walisema kwamba maulamaa hawapaswi kuamua mfumo wa kisiasa, lakini asilimia 47 waliunga mkono nafasi kubwa zaidi kwao. Kwa hiyo mwelekeo wa kisiasa uko wazi: kadiri ulimwengu wa Kiarabu unavyokuwa wa kidemokrasia zaidi, ndivyo uwezekano wa Waislamu wenye itikadi kali (Islamists) kushika madaraka unavyoongezeka.xxiv

Fifty percent of Egyptians polled said the clerics should not dictate the political system, but as many as 47 percent supported a greater role for them. So the political trend is clear; more democratic the Arab world gets, the more likely it is that Islamists will come to powerxxiv.

Sio tu kwamba msukumo wa demokrasia wa Bush katika Mashariki ya Kati umeimarisha Uislamu wa kisiasa, bali pia umeshindwa kuzuia wimbi la Uislamu wa itikadi kali ambalo linazidi kuwa la kikatili kila siku.

Not only has Bush’ s democracy drive in the Middle East strengthened political Islam it has also failed to stymie the tide of militant Islam which grows more violent by the day.

Mnamo Aprili 2005, Idara ya Mambo ya Nje ya Marekani iliamua kusitisha uchapishaji wa ripoti ya kila mwaka kuhusu ugaidi wa kimataifa, baada ya kituo kikuu cha ugaidi cha serikali kuhitimisha kwamba kulikuwa na mashambulizi ya kigaidi zaidi mwaka 2004 kuliko mwaka wowote tangu 1985, mwaka wa kwanza ambao ripoti hiyo ilihusu. Mhanga mwingine wa mpango huu imekuwa vita vya nyoyo na akili. Kulingana na kura ya maoni ya Zogby ya mwaka 2005 kuhusu mitazamo ya Waarabu kuhusu Marekani, asilimia 63 ya Wajordani, asilimia 85 ya Wamisri, asilimia 89 ya Wasaudi, asilimia 66 ya Walebanon, na asilimia 69 ya watu wa Falme za Kiarabu walikuwa na maoni yasiyofaa kuhusu Marekani.

In April 2005, the US State Department decided to stop publishing an annual report on international terrorism after the government's top terrorism centre concluded that there were more terrorist attacks in 2004 than in any year since 1985, the first year the publication covered. Another casualty of this initiative has been the battle of hearts and minds. According to the 2005 Zogby poll on Arab attitudes towards America, 63% of Jordanians, 85 % of Egyptians, 89% of Saudis, 66% of Lebanese, and 69% of the people in UAE had an unfavourable opinion of America.

Kushindwa kwa mpango wa Bush wa kukuza demokrasia katika Mashariki ya Kati hakujaepuka macho ya watunga sera nyumbani. Mzozo mkali umezuka kati ya wafuasi wa Bush na wakosoaji wa mpango wake. Wapinzani wa mpango wake wanasema kwamba Bush hafanyi vya kutosha kuwatenga Waislamu wenye itikadi kali na kuwakuza wastani kama sehemu ya msukumo wa demokrasia katika Mashariki ya Kati. Pia wanashikilia kwamba Waislamu wenye itikadi kali, hasa wale wanaopinga Marekani kwa sauti kubwa, hawawezi kuaminiwa na lazima watengwe na jaribio la demokrasia. Mtazamo wao unatokana na wazo kwamba kukataa kwa ulimwengu wa Kiislamu kukubali maadili ya Magharibi kunatokana na itikadi ya Uislamu. Kwa maoni yao, maandiko ya Kiislamu yanapaswa kubadilika kimsingi kabla ulimwengu wa Kiarabu haujakubaliwa na Magharibi.

The collapse of Bush’ s plan to advance democracy in the Middle East has not escaped the attention of policy makers back home. A bitter dispute has broken out between supporters of Bush and the critics of his plan. The opponents of his plan argue that Bush is not doing enough to isolate the Islamists and promote the moderates as part of the democracy push in the Middle East. They also maintain that Islamists, especially those that are vociferously anti- American cannot be trusted and must be excluded from the democracy experiment. Their view is based on the idea that the refusal of the Muslim world to accept western values lies with the ideology of Islam. In their opinion the Islamic texts have to fundamentally change before the Arab world can be accepted by the West.

Wafuasi wa upande mwingine, kwa upande wao, wanatetea mbinu ya kiutendaji zaidi. Wanaamini kwamba kwa kuwashirikisha Waislamu wenye msimamo wa kisiasa (Waislamu wa itikadi ya Kiislamu) katika mchakato wa kidemokrasia, ulimwengu wa Kiarabu unaweza kuundwa kuwa eneo linalokubali maadili ya Magharibi, lisilo na uadui mkubwa dhidi ya Marekani, na linalokubali kwa hiari utawala wa Marekani. Imani yao inategemea dhana kwamba kuwaweka Waislamu wenye msimamo wa kisiasa nje ya mchakato wa kidemokrasia kutazaa tu chuki na vurugu dhidi ya Magharibi. Wao wanaitaja Uturuki kuwa mfano bora wa kuigwa na ulimwengu wa Kiarabu. Mtetezi mkuu wa mtazamo huu ni mwanamageuzi-mamboleo Marc Gerecht, ambaye hivi karibuni alitoa hoja, katika makala yenye kichwa ‘Devout Democracies’, kwamba utawala wa kujitawala katika ulimwengu wa Kiislamu utakuwa na sehemu ya kidini, na kwamba Magharibi haipaswi kuogopa jambo hili.

The supporters on the other hand advocate a more pragmatic approach. They believe that by co-opting Islamists in the democratic process, the Arab world can be moulded into a region that accepts western values, is substantially less anti-American and willingly accepts American hegemony. Their belief rests on the premise that by keeping Islamists out of the democratic process will only breed resentment and violence against the West. They cite Turkey as the ideal model for the Arab world to follow. A major proponent of this view is the neoconservative Marc Gerecht who recently argued in an article entitled ‘Devout Democracies’ that self rule in the Muslim world will have a religious component and the West should not be afraid of this phenomena.

Ijapokuwa moja kati ya mitazamo hii miwili itaongoza jaribio la demokrasia ya Amerika katika Mashariki ya Kati, athari yake katika kudhibiti kuongezeka kwa Uislamu wa kisiasa itakuwa ndogo sana. Hii ni kwa sababu watu wa Mashariki ya Kati hawatasahau wala kusamehe uungwaji mkono usiokoma wa Amerika kwa Israeli, uungwaji mkono wake usio na kikomo kwa tawala dhalimu za Kiarabu, unyonyaji wake wa rasilimali zao za asili, kulazimisha kwake suluhisho na maadili ya kibepari, na juhudi zake madhubuti za kupigana vita dhidi ya watu wa Iraq na Waislamu wengine.

Whichever of the two views succeeds in guiding America’ s democracy experiment in the Middle East, it will have a negligible impact on curbing the rise of political Islam. This is because the people of the Middle East will never forget or forgive America’ s unstinting support for Israel, her unflinching support for the brutal Arab dictatorships, her exploitation of their natural resources, her imposition of capitalist solutions and values, and her determined efforts to wage wars against the people of Iraq and other Muslims.

Uhalisia huu wenye uchungu umeandikwa kudumu katika akili za Waarabu na unaendelea kuwasukuma wananchi wa Kiarabu kutafuta faraja katika Uislamu wa kisiasa.

These painful realities are permanently etched on the minds of the Arabs and continuously urge the Arab populace to seek solace in political Islam.

Mashariki ya Kati ni moyo wa ulimwengu wa Kiislamu, na kwa sasa inavuma kwa siasa za Kiislamu ambazo bila shaka zitaleta kuibuka upya kwa Ukhalifa. Kukuza demokrasia au kukataa utekelezaji wake, kubadilisha maandiko ya Kiislamu kwa tafsiri za kisekula, kuwatenga Waislamu wenye msimamo mkali na kuwahimiza wenye msimamo wa wastani, kuangusha tawala na kuzibadilisha na vibaraka watiifu wa Marekani hakutabadilisha matokeo. Mahusiano ya Marekani na Waarabu huko nyuma yamekwisha kuamua hatima yake kwa Waarabu wa sasa. Sasa ni wakati wa watunga sera wa Marekani kufikiria kuhusu mustakabali: Marekani inataka mahusiano ya aina gani na Ukhalifa?

The Middle East is the heart of the Islamic world and right now it is pulsating with political Islam that will inevitably lead to the re-emergence of the Caliphate. Promoting democracy or eschewing its implementation, substituting Islamic texts with secular interpretations, isolating Islamists and encouraging moderates, destroying regimes and replacing them with compliant US surrogates is not going to change the outcome. America’ s past relations with the Arabs has sealed her fate with the present Arabs. The time has come for US policy makers to think about the future – what type of relations does the US want with the Caliphate?

Januari 23, 2006

January 23, 2006