“Wanasema juu ya kutaka kurejesha kile ambacho mnaweza kukiita Ukhalifa wa Karne ya Saba. Huu ulikuwa ulimwengu kama ulivyopangwa miaka 1,200, 1,300 iliyopita, kwa kweli, wakati Uislamu au watu wa Kiislamu walidhibiti kila kitu kuanzia Ureno na Hispania upande wa Magharibi; kote Mediterania hadi Afrika Kaskazini; Afrika Kaskazini yote; Mashariki ya Kati; hadi Balkan; jamhuri za Asia ya Kati; ncha ya kusini ya Urusi; sehemu kubwa ya India; na kuzunguka hadi Indonesia ya leo. Kwa maana fulani, kuanzia Bali na Jakarta upande mmoja, hadi Madrid upande mwingine.” -- Makamu wa Rais wa zamani wa Marekani, Cheney Mwezi Desemba 2004, Baraza la Taifa la Kijasusi la CIA lilitabiri kwamba mwaka 2020 Ukhalifa mpya ungeibuka kwenye jukwaa la dunia. Matokeo hayo yalichapishwa katika ripoti ya kurasa 123 yenye kichwa “Mapping the Global Future”. Lengo la ripoti hiyo ni kuiandaa utawala ujao wa Bush kwa changamoto zilizo mbele, kwa kutabiri mwelekeo wa sasa ambao unaweza kuleta tishio kwa maslahi ya Marekani. Ripoti hiyo inawasilishwa kwa Rais wa Marekani, wajumbe wa Bunge la Congress, mawaziri na maafisa wakuu wanaohusika na kutunga sera.

“They talk about wanting to re-establish what you could refer to as the Seventh Century Caliphate. This was the world as it was organized 1,200, 1,300 years, in effect, when Islam or Islamic people controlled everything from Portugal and Spain in the West; all through the Mediterranean to North Africa; all of North Africa; the Middle East; up into the Balkans; the Central Asian republics; the southern tip of Russia; a good swath of India; and on around to modern day Indonesia. In one sense from Bali and Jakarta on one end, to Madrid on the other." -- Former US Vice President Cheney In December 2004, The National Intelligence Council of the CIA predicted that in the year 2020 a new Caliphate would emerge on the world stage. The findings were published in a 123-page report titled “Mapping the Global Future”. The aim of the report is to prepare the next Bush administration for challenges that lie ahead by projecting current trends that may pose a threat to US interest. The report is presented to the US president, members of Congress, cabinet members and key officials involved in policymaking.

Kinachovutia katika ripoti hii ni kwamba imejaa marejeo kuhusu Uislamu wa kisiasa na changamoto mbalimbali unazozileta kwa maslahi ya Marekani katika siku zijazo zinazoonekana. Kuna hata hali ya kubuni inayoonyesha kuibuka kwa dola ya Khilafah mwaka 2020 na athari yake kwa hali ya kimataifa.

What is striking about the report is that it is full of references about political Islam and the various challenges it poses to US interests in the foreseeable future. There is even a fictional scenario depicting the emergence of Caliphate state in 2020 and its impact on the international situation.

Hata hivyo, ripoti hii inategemea dhana ambazo zinadhoofisha uhalali wake katika sehemu mbalimbali, hasa sehemu inayohusu Ukhalifa. Ifuatayo ni ukosoaji wa baadhi ya hoja zilizowekwa katika hali ya kubuniwa: - Ripoti inadai kwamba nguvu ya Ukhalifa mpya itatokana na juhudi za harakati ya Kiislamu ya kimataifa kuchukua madaraka. Ingawa ni kweli kwamba harakati ya Kiislamu ya kimataifa inaweza kuchochea uasi wa kiraia au kuanzisha mapinduzi ili kuleta Ukhalifa, nguvu yake na kudumu kwake kunategemea kitu tofauti kabisa.

However, the report is predicated on assumptions which undermine the validity of the report in various parts, especially the section on the Caliphate. Below is a critique of some of the arguments postulated in the fictional scenario: - The report asserts that the strength of the new Caliphate will be borne out of the efforts of a global Islamic movement taking power. While it may be true that a global Islamic movement may instigate civil disobedience or initiate a coup to bring about the Caliphate, its strength and longevity is dependent upon something entirely different.

Imani ya kiakili katika seti ya pamoja ya maadili miongoni mwa raia wa dola ndiyo kipimo cha nguvu ya dola hiyo, si harakati iliyoanzisha dola hiyo. Umoja wa Kisovieti ulisambaratika si kwa sababu ulikosa teknolojia, bali kwa sababu watu wake waliacha ukomunisti, na chama cha kikomunisti kilishindwa kuwashawishi vinginevyo.

Intellectual conviction in a common set of values amongst the citizens of a state is the measure of the state’ s strength and not the movement, which founded the state. The Soviet Union collapsed not because it was deficient in technology, but because its people abandoned communism and the communist party was powerless to convince them otherwise.

Tathmini sahihi ya itikadi za umma wa Kiislamu kwa ajili ya kurejea kwa mfumo wa maisha wa Kiislamu kupitia kuanzishwa upya kwa Khilafah ndiyo jambo muhimu zaidi peke yake katika kubainisha kama Khilafah itafanikiwa au itashindwa katika karne ya 21. Hili ni muhimu zaidi kuliko teknolojia na rasilimali, ambavyo vyote viwili vinaweza kupatikana haraka mradi Khilafah iweze kujilinda na kujenga maendeleo yake kwa msingi wa itikadi ya Kiislamu pekee.

An accurate appraisal of the convictions of the Muslim masses for the resumption of the Islamic way of life through the re-establishment of the Caliphate is the single most important factor in determining whether the Caliphate will succeed or fail in the 21st century. This is more important than technology and resources, both of which can be quickly gained as long as the Caliphate is able to defend itself and base its progress exclusively on the Islamic ideology.

Kila mara vuguvugu la Kiislamu linapochukuliwa kuwa kipimo pekee cha kukadiria kiwango cha uamsho wa Kiislamu katika nchi za Waislamu, picha iliyopotoka itajitokeza daima. CIA si pekee katika kutumia kipimo hiki cha uongo. Mazoea haya yameenea sana na yameharibu uchambuzi wa taasisi za kufikiri zinazoheshimika, pamoja na maandishi ya baadhi ya wachambuzi mashuhuri kama Francis Fukuyama na Samuel P. Huntington.

Whenever Islamic movements are taken as the sole gauge for estimating the extent of Islamic revival in Muslim countries, a skewed picture will always emerge. The CIA is not alone in employing this false standard. The practice is wide spread and has tainted the analysis of respected think tanks and the writings of some notable commentators such as Francis Fukuyama and Samuel P. Huntington.

Kasoro hii si matokeo ya chuki yao dhidi ya Uislamu, bali inatokana na kushikamana kwao na falsafa ya ubinafsi (individualism), ambayo imeharibu uelewa wao wa jamii na kuipunguza kuwa mkusanyiko wa watu binafsi tu.

This flaw is not the result of their malice towards Islam, but is due to their adherence to the philosophy of individualism, which has marred their understanding of society and reduced it to a collection of individuals.

Uelewa sahihi wa jamii unaonyesha kwamba jamii imeundwa na watu binafsi, ambao wameunganishwa pamoja na mawazo na hisia za pamoja, na wanaishi chini ya mfumo maalum. Kiwango cha kuungwa mkono kwa watu kuhusu mfumo uliopo wa utawala, au kwa mfumo mbadala wa kutawala, kinaweza kubainishwa tu kwa kupima mawazo na hisia hizi za pamoja.

A proper understanding of society reveals that it is composed of individuals, which are bonded together by common thoughts and emotions, and live under a specific system. The degree of support amongst people towards the existing system of governance or for an alternative system of ruling can only be ascertained through the evaluation of these common thoughts and emotions.

Kushikamana sana na ubinafsi kumeifanya Magharibi kupuuza kwa kiasi kikubwa uenezi wa mawazo na hisia za Kiislamu katika nchi za Waislamu, na pia kukadiria vibaya kiwango kikubwa cha uungwaji mkono wa kurejeshwa kwa Ukhalifa.

The attachment to individualism has led the West to grossly underestimate the penetration of Islamic thoughts and sentiments in the Muslim countries, and also to miscalculate the wide spread support for the re-establishment of the Caliphate.

Jambo jingine lenye mjadala katika ripoti hiyo ni dai kwamba kuanzishwa kwa Khilafah hakutasababisha tawala za nchi za Kiislamu kuanguka moja baada ya nyingine – athari ya domino.

Another point of contention in the report is the claim that the emergence of the Caliphate will not cause the regimes in Muslim countries to collapse one after the other – the domino effect.

Tena, uelewa huu unatokana na uelewa usio sahihi wa jamii. Uchunguzi wa juu juu tu wa ulimwengu wa Kiislamu unaonyesha kuwepo kwa mgawanyiko mkubwa wa mitazamo kati ya tawala na watu wanaotawaliwa nazo. Kabla ya kuanguka kwa utawala wa Ba'ath, Saddam, ambaye alikuwa mpinga dini, alikuwa akitoa hotuba zilizojaa istilahi za Kiislamu. Alifanya hivyo kwa sababu alitambua kwamba watu hawakuwa tena wakihamasishwa na Ubaath, usekula au Uarabu, bali walikuwa wakiitikia Uislamu pekee. Vivyo hivyo, Musharraf alipoungana na vita vya Marekani dhidi ya Afghanistan, ilimbidi kunukuu vifungu virefu kutoka katika maisha ya Mtume ﷺ ili kuhalalisha msimamo wake.

Again this understanding is derived from an incorrect understanding of society. A cursory study of the Muslim world shows that there exists strong polarisation in viewpoints between the regimes and the people they govern. Before the collapse of the Baath regime, Saddam an atheist was delivering speeches laced with Islamic terms. He did this, because he realised that the people were no longer motivated by Baathism, secularism or Arabism and only responded to Islam. Similarly, when Musharraf sided with America’ s war against Afghanistan he had to quote lengthy passages from life of the Messenger (SAW) to justify his stance.

Mgongano kati ya kulinda mfumo wa kidunia wa serikali na kuzuia Uislamu wa kisiasa usichukue madaraka ni jambo la kila siku katika sehemu kubwa ya ulimwengu wa Kiislamu. Tawala za ulimwengu wa Kiislamu zinaonekana kuwa walinzi wa maslahi ya Magharibi na zenye uadui dhidi ya Uislamu. Waislamu huzichukia tawala hizi kwa dhati na wana hamu ya kuziondoa. Sababu pekee ya tawala hizi kuendelea kuwepo ni msaada usiokoma kutoka kwa serikali za Magharibi.

The conflict between maintaining the secular order and preventing political Islam from assuming power is a daily occurrence in much of the Muslim world. The regimes in the Muslim world are viewed as the custodians of western interests and antagonistic towards Islam. Muslims simply loathed these regimes and are eager to extinguish their existence. The only reason these regimes survive is because of the dogged support from western governments.

Leo, Umma ya Kiislamu inasimama katika ukingo wa mabadiliko makubwa, kama vile nchi za Mkataba wa Warsaw zilivyosimama takriban miaka 18 iliyopita. Pazia la chuma lilishuka kwa sababu watu walikuwa wamebadili mtazamo wao kutoka ukomunisti hadi ubepari. Vivyo hivyo, Umma wa Kiislamu umeacha ukomunisti na ubepari, na unasubiri kuibuka kwa Khilafah, ambayo itasababisha tawala hizi kuanguka kwa namna ya kushangaza, na kisha kumezwa na Khilafah.

Today, the Islamic Ummah stands on the cusp of a monumental change, just as the Warsaw pact countries stood some 18 years ago. The iron curtain came down because people had changed their viewpoint from communism to capitalism. Likewise the Muslim Ummah has abandoned both communism and capitalism, and is waiting for the emergence of the Caliphate, which will cause these regimes to collapse in spectacular fashion, only to be absorbed by the Caliphate.

Hatimaye ripoti inadai kwamba Waislamu wangeona majaribu ya ubepari wa Magharibi kuwa mazito mno kuvumilika, na hivyo kuwasababishia kuikimbia ardhi ya Ukhalifa mpya. Mtazamo huu kwa wazi unajengwa juu ya dhana iliyoenea Magharibi kwamba Ukhalifa ndio kinyume cha usasa.

Finally the report claims that Muslims would find the temptations of western materialism too much to bear, causing them to flee the shores of the new Caliphate. This view is obviously founded on the prevalent western notion that the Caliphate is the antithesis to modernisation.

Sababu nyingine inayoimarisha mtazamo huu miongoni mwa Wamagharibi ni kuhama kwa sasa kwa Waislamu kutoka ulimwengu wa Kiislamu kwenda Magharibi.

Another factor that enhances this perception amongst westerners is the current exodus of Muslims from the Islamic world to the west.

Hakuna jambo lililo mbali zaidi na ukweli kuliko hili. Kwanza, Ukhalifa ambao Waislamu wanataka kuuanzisha ni Ukhalifa ulioongozwa kwa uongofu, ambao ulikuwa kilele cha ustaarabu wa binadamu. Ni ukweli wa kihistoria unaotambuliwa kwa upana na wataalamu kadhaa mashuhuri wa Uislamu - hasa Bernard Lewis.

Nothing could be further from the truth. First, the Caliphate that Muslims want to establish is the rightly guided Caliphate, which was at the zenith of human civilisation. A historical fact widely recognised by several eminent experts on Islam- most notably Bernard Lewis.

Pili, uhamiaji mkubwa wa Waislamu kuelekea Magharibi ni matokeo ya sera za kigeni za Magharibi katika ulimwengu wa Kiislamu, na si kwa sababu Waislamu wanavutiwa na maadili ya Magharibi. Wahamiaji wengi, ikiwa si wote, ni wahamiaji wa kiuchumi au waomba hifadhi ya kisiasa wanaokimbia dhuluma za tawala ambazo mara nyingi zinaungwa mkono na serikali za Magharibi.

Second, the mass migration of Muslims to the West is a consequence of western foreign policy ventures in the Muslim world and not because of Muslim infatuation with western values. Most migrants, if not all are either economic migrants or political asylum seekers escaping the tyranny of regimes often supported by western governments.

Hata Waislamu hao waliohamia magharibi bado hawajakubali maadili ya kisekula kwa hofu ya kuharibu Uislamu wao.

Even those Muslims, who have settled in the west, have yet to embrace secular values for fear of corrupting their Islam.

Juhudi za hivi karibuni za Ulaya za kulazimisha idadi ya Waislamu wake kukubali maadili ya Magharibi zinaonyesha wazi jinsi Ulaya ilivyo na tamaa ya kuwafanya Waislamu wawe wasio wa kidini, na zinapingana na picha potofu inayoonyeshwa na vyombo vya habari vya Magharibi kwamba nchi za Kiislamu zinaomba kuigwa Magharibi.

The recent endeavour by Europe to coerce its Muslim population to adopt western values speaks volumes for Europe’ s obsession with secularising Muslims and runs counter to the stereotyped image projected by the western media that Muslim countries are pleading to be westernised.

Kuwekwa kwa Waislamu katika makundi fulani (typecasting) kunatokana na uelewa usio sahihi wa hisia za kupinga Magharibi zilizoenea katika ulimwengu wa Kiislamu. Mara nyingi katika duru za Magharibi, hisia za kupinga Magharibi hufananishwa na kukataa kabisa ustaarabu wa Magharibi, na hilo hunasibishwa na kundi la wenye msimamo mkali (fundamentalist).

The typecasting of Muslims is based on the erroneous understanding of anti-western feeling that pervades the Muslim world. Often in western circles, anti-western sentiments are equated with the total rejection of western civilisation and attributed to the fundamentalist camp.

Zaidi ya hayo, hamu ya Waislamu kumiliki bidhaa za Magharibi hufasiriwa kuwa ni tamaa ya mtindo wa maisha wa Magharibi. Wamagharibi mara nyingi huwaweka katika kundi la wastani wale wanaoonyesha kuvutiwa na bidhaa za Magharibi.

To make matters worse, the desire amongst Muslims to own western goods are interpreted as a craving for the western way of life. Westerners often classify those who display admiration for western goods into the moderate camp.

Kuwaweka Waislamu katika makundi mawili kwa kutegemea tafsiri za namna hii ni jambo lisilo sahihi. Hii ni kwa sababu upinzani dhidi ya magharibi unaopatikana miongoni mwa Waislamu ni kukemea utamaduni wa magharibi, na si kukemea bidhaa za magharibi. Vilevile, kuvutiwa na bidhaa za magharibi ni kukiri ubora wa hali ya juu wa bidhaa hizo, na si kuthibitisha kukubali utamaduni wa magharibi kwa ujumla.

To pigeonhole Muslims into the two camps based on such interpretations is wrong. This is because the anti-western rhetoric found amongst Muslims is a denunciation of western culture and not of western goods. Likewise, the expression for the admiration for western products is an acknowledgement of the superior quality of the goods and is not an affirmation for the wholesale acceptance of western culture.

Kwa mara ya kwanza katika miaka mingi, ulimwengu wa Kiislamu umepitia mabadiliko makubwa katika kupatanisha ni vipengele gani vya mtindo wa maisha wa Magharibi vinaweza kukubalika au kukataliwa kwa mujibu wa Uislamu. Waislamu leo wanakubali bidhaa za Magharibi kama DVD, visahani vya satelaiti (Satellite Dishes) na runinga (TV) kwa sababu tu bidhaa hizo hazipingani na mtazamo wao wa Kiislamu. Kwa upande mwingine, dhana za Magharibi kama uhuru, demokrasia na ubinafsi zinatupiliwa mbali kwa sababu zinachukuliwa kuwa zinapingana na Uislamu.

For the first time in many years, the Muslim world has undergone a radical transformation in reconciling which aspects of the western way of life can be accepted or rejected with Islam. Muslims today accept western goods such as DVDs, Satellites Dishes, and TVs only because such items do not contradict their Islamic viewpoint. On the other hand western concepts such as freedom, democracy and individualism are discarded because are deemed to contradict Islam.

Hapo awali, ulimwengu wa Kiislamu ulikuwa umegawanyika kati ya makundi mawili, yaani wanamageuzi (modernists) waliotaka kuchukua kila kitu kutoka Magharibi, na wanamapokeo (traditionalists) waliokuwa na hamu ya kukataa kila kipengele cha ustaarabu wa Magharibi. Mtazamo huu ulizuia maendeleo na kuwaruhusu Magharibi kuanzisha utawala wao juu ya ardhi za Waislamu.

Previously, the Muslim world was torn between two factions i.e. the modernists who wanted to adopt everything from the West and the traditionalists who were keen to rebuff all aspects of western civilisation. This mentality stifled progress and allowed the West to establish their hegemony over Muslim lands.

Leo, si Waislamu wanaojizuia kutoka katika maendeleo ya binadamu na kukidhi mahitaji ya karne ya 21, bali ni Magharibi inayochagua kuzuia maendeleo haya na inayoendelea kulazimisha maadili yake juu ya umma wa Waislamu kwa kushirikiana na tawala za ulimwengu wa Kiislamu.

Today, it is not Muslims who are holding themselves back from human advancement and meeting the demands of the 21st century, but rather it is the West that chooses to suppress these developments and insists on imposing its values upon the Muslim masses in connivance with the regimes of the Muslim world.

Mtazamo huu sio tu umechangia kutoelewa kwa Magharibi kuhusu Uislamu, bali pia umeihimiza Magharibi kuweka uhusiano usio wa haki na ulimwengu wa Kiislamu.

This attitude has not only contributed to the West’ s misunderstanding of Islam, but has encouraged the West to define an inequitable relationship with the Muslim world.

Zaidi ya hayo, mtazamo huu umeifanya Magharibi kuepuka kila kitu kinachohusiana na Uislamu. Uvamizi wa Magharibi nchini Iraq na Afghanistan tayari umeonyesha unyanyasaji wa watu wa Kiislamu, uporaji wa ardhi yao na kudharauliwa kwa Uislamu.

Furthermore, the mindset has prompted the West to shun everything to do with Islam. West’ s occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan has already highlighted the abuse of the Muslim people, the pillage of their land and denigration of Islam.

Ikiwa mtazamo huu hautabadilishwa, basi Magharibi itajikuta katika hali ya hatari pande mbili. Kwanza, Khilafah itakuwa dola yenye nguvu na yenye maendeleo, inayoandaa hatima mpya kwa Waislamu baada ya kuwakomboa kutoka kwenye utawala wa kisiasa, kijeshi na kiuchumi wa Magharibi. Magharibi, ikidhoofika kwa kupoteza udhibiti huu ghafla, itajitahidi kudumisha utawala wake katika mambo ya dunia. Pili, Khilafah itaitumia kwa haraka muungano kati ya Uislamu na sayansi, na hivyo kuipita Magharibi kwa uvumbuzi, teknolojia na ugunduzi mpya wa kisayansi.

If this attitude is not reversed then the West will find itself in a precarious position on two fronts. First, the Caliphate will be a strong, progressive state charting a new destiny for the Muslim people after liberating them from the political, military and economic hegemony of the West. The West weakened by this abrupt loss of control will struggle to maintain its dominance in world affairs. Secondly, the Caliphate will swiftly harness the synergy between Islam and science, thereby surpassing the West in terms of inventions, technologies and new scientific discoveries.

Kutokana na mitazamo hasi ya Magharibi kuelekea kila kitu kinachohusu Uislamu, Magharibi itajikuta ikifunga milango ya elimu na kuwakinga watu wake dhidi ya maendeleo na changamoto za karne ya 21.

Given the West’ s negative attitudes towards all things Islamic, it will find itself closing the doors to knowledge and shielding its people from progress and challenges of 21st century.

Januari 23, 2005

January 23, 2005