"Kama ilivyokuwa katika kipindi kilichotangulia Vita vya Kwanza vya Dunia, miungano na vizuizi vya kikanda vingeweza kuundwa ili kupinga ubabe wa Marekani. Ikiwa mojawapo ya vyombo hivi ingeweza kuimarisha nguvu zake haraka vya kutosha, dunia mpya yenye mihimili miwili ingeweza kuibuka. Kwa uwezekano, China, muungano wa Waarabu wote, au Umoja wa Ulaya ulioungana ungeweza kuwa superpower hii mpya." -- Robert DeYeso Ni miaka sita tu imepita tangu Rais Bush aingie madarakani, na karne ya 21 iliyotamaniwa sana, ambayo ilikuwa ya Marekani, inakaribia kumalizika ghafla. Ubora wa Marekani katika pembe nne za dunia unapingwa na marafiki na maadui sawa.

“Much like the time leading up to World War I, coalitions and regional blocs could form to contest American supremacy. If one of these entities could consolidate its power quickly enough, a new bipolar world could emerge. Potentially, China, a pan-Arab coalition, or a unified European Union (EU) could become this new superpower.” -- Robert DeYeso Barely six years have elapsed since President Bush took office and the much coveted 21st century belongs to America is about to come to an abrupt end. America’ s pre-eminence in four corners of the world is being challenged by friends and foes alike.

Katika uwanja wa nyuma wa Amerika yenyewe— Amerika ya Kusini— Rais wa Venezuela Hugo Chávez anaongoza kampeni ya kudhoofisha maslahi ya Marekani katika eneo lote. Amefanikiwa kupata uungwaji mkono wa viongozi wa Cuba, Bolivia na Ecuador ili kueneza msimamo wake. Kwa pamoja wamepinga utawala wa Marekani kwa kuanzisha kampeni ya kurejesha mashamba ya mafuta na gesi kutoka kwa kampuni za Magharibi na kuyaweka moja kwa moja chini ya udhibiti wa serikali.

In America’ s own backyard— Latin America— Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is spearheading a crusade to undermine US interests across the region. He has successfully garnered the support of the leaders of Cuba, Bolivia and Ecuador to propagate his cause. Together they have challenged American supremacy by embarking on a campaign to reclaim oil and gas fields from western companies and put them directly under state control.

Upande wa pili wa Atlantiki, Ulaya iliyoumizwa vibaya na vita vya Iraq na yenye uhasama mkubwa dhidi ya ajenda ya upande mmoja ya utawala wa Bush, imetoa msaada wa majina tu, kwa kiwango cha juu kabisa.

Across the Atlantic, Europe smitten by the Iraq war and deeply hostile to the unilateralist agenda of the Bush administration has at best offered nominal assistance.

Badala yake, pale ambapo Wazungu walipata fursa, hasa Wafaransa, Wajerumani na Waingereza, wamefanya kazi zaidi kama maadui kuliko washirika wa Marekani. Ukaidi wa Ufaransa nchini Lebanon, kukataa kwa Ulaya kutuma wanajeshi wa kutosha Iraq na Afghanistan, kuingilia kwa Uingereza mambo ya Palestina, na upinzani wa Ufaransa na Uingereza dhidi ya suluhu ya Darfur, vimeharibu hadhi ya Marekani duniani na kudhoofisha uhalali wake.

Rather, given the opportunity the Europeans—notably the French, the Germans and the British have behaved more as foes than American allies. French intransigence in Lebanon, Europe’ s refusal to commit significant troops to Iraq and Afghanistan, Britain’ s interference in Palestine, and French and British hostility towards a Darfur settlement have damaged America’ s standing in the world and eroded her legitimacy.

Urusi na China, zilizodhibitiwa kwa takriban miaka ishirini ya nguvu za Marekani, zimeamka upya ili kupinga mapinduzi yaliyochochewa na Marekani yanayoenea Asia ya Kati. Uzbekistan imerejea katika eneo la ushawishi la Moscow, Kyrgyzstan na Belarus zilifanikiwa kuzuia maasi yaliyoungwa mkono na Marekani; Marekani ilishindwa kuendeleza faida za kisiasa ilizopata nchini Ukraine, na Georgia ilishuhudia mwitikio mkali kutoka Urusi kutokana na uhusiano wake na Washington.

Russia and China subdued by twenty or so years of American power have reawakened to counter American inspired revolutions sweeping Central Asia. Uzbekistan returned to Moscow’ s sphere of influence, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus successfully thwarted US backed uprisings; America failed to press home the political gains made in Ukraine, and Georgia witnessed a severe backlash from Russia over its ties with Washington.

Zaidi ya hayo, Kyrgyzstan na Tajikistan, nchi ndogo wanachama wa Shirika la Ushirikiano la Shanghai (SCO), zimejiona kuwa na ujasiri wa kutosha kudai kuondolewa kwa vituo vya kijeshi vya Marekani. Faida za Marekani katika eneo hili karibu zinakaribia kutoweka.

Furthermore, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the minnow states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have become emboldened enough to demand withdrawal of American bases. America’ s gains in this region almost stand to naught.

Mbaya zaidi ni kwamba vita dhidi ya ugaidi vimeimarisha bila kukusudia uhusiano wa China na Urusi—na hivyo kufuta miaka mingi ya mipango ya kimkakati ya Marekani ya kuwatenganisha maadui hao wa zamani. Muungano wa China na Urusi, ulioimarishwa na ukuaji wa uchumi na nia ya pamoja ya kuona dunia yenye nguvu mbili kuu, umeenea kila kona ya dunia na kuidhuru maslahi ya Marekani.

Worse still is that the war on terror has inadvertently solidified China’ s relationship with Russia—undoing years of American strategic planning to keep the two erstwhile enemies apart. The China-Russian alliance reinvigorated with economic growth and a common desire to see a bipolar world has spread its tentacles across the globe harming US interests.

Urusi, isiyojali vitisho vya Marekani, inaipatia Venezuela na Iran silaha za kisasa. Kampuni za nishati za China zinatia saini mikataba ya mafuta katika maeneo ambayo kijadi yalikuwa ni himaya ya makampuni makubwa ya mafuta ya Marekani. Katika Mashariki ya Kati, Urusi na China zimepinga kwa nguvu msimamo wa Marekani kuhusu Iran. Kwenye Rasi ya Korea, uungaji mkono usio na kikomo wa Beijing kwa Pyongyang umeonyesha kutoweza kwa Washington kuzuia Korea Kaskazini kuwa taifa lenye silaha za nyuklia.

Russia unfazed by American threats is equipping Venezuela and Iran with modern weaponryxxv. Chinese energy companies are signing oil deals in places that have traditionally been the preserve of American oil giantsxxvi. In the Middle East, both Russian and China have taken strong objection to America’ s position over Iran. On the Korean peninsula, Beijing’ s unfettered support for Pyongyang has exposed Washington’ s inability to prevent North Korea from becoming nuclear.

Katika ulimwengu wote wa Kiislamu, heshima ya Amerika imeporomoka hadi kiwango cha chini kabisa kuwahi kutokea. Ukali wa upinzani nchini Iraq na Afghanistan umevunja uti wa mgongo wa jeshi la Marekani, na umemlazimu Rais Bush kuachana na mipango yake ya kueneza demokrasia. Bush, asiyeweza kujiondoa Amerika kutoka Iraq na Afghanistan, amelazimika kurudi kwenye 'Mafundisho ya Truman' na kutafuta msaada wa tawala za kidikteta zisizo za kidini kama Syria, Iran na Pakistan. Badala ya kuunda upya ulimwengu wa Kiislamu kwa sura ya Amerika, sera mbovu za utawala wa Bush zimeufanya mkoa huu kuwa wa Kiislamu zaidi, zimewachochea wananchi wa Kiislamu kuamka kutoka usingizi wao wa kiroho, na zimeiamsha wasomi wa Kiislamu na kuwa nguvu kubwa ya Uislamu wa kisiasa. Kwa kifupi, katika miaka sita iliyopita, inatosha kusema kwamba Amerika inaharakisha kuzaliwa kwa Khilafah.

Throughout the Muslim world America’ s credibility has plummeted to an all-time low. The ferocity of the resistance in Iraq and Afghanistan has broken the back of the US army and forced President Bush to abandon his plans to advance democracy. Bush unable to extricate America from Iraq and Afghanistan has had to revert to the ‘Truman Doctrine’ and seek the help of secular autocracies like Syria, Iran and Pakistan. Instead of reshaping the Muslim world in America’ s image, the nefarious policies of the Bush administration has Islamised the region, politicized the Muslim masses to awaken from their spiritual slumber and galvanized the Muslim intelligentsia into a powerful force or political Islam— to sum up the last six years— it is suffice to say that America is precipitating the birth of the Caliphate.

Baada ya miongo miwili ya kutawala mambo ya dunia, Marekani inajikuta ikiwa mikononi mwa marafiki zake na maadui zake. Graham Fuller, aliyekuwa makamu mwenyekiti wa Baraza la Taifa la Kijasusi, alieleza kwa usahihi hali ya Marekani alipoandika katika toleo la hivi karibuni la National Interest, "nchi mbalimbali zimetumia mikakati na mbinu nyingi zilizobuniwa kudhoofisha, kuelekeza upya, kubadilisha, kuvuruga, kupunguza, kuchelewesha au kuzuia ajenda ya Bush kupitia kifo cha kukatwa kwa mikato elfu moja." Basi, nini kitatokea baada ya Marekani kuanguka kutoka kiti chake kama nguvu kuu pekee duniani? Ulaya imegawanyika mno kuchukua nafasi ya uongozi. Urusi bado haijageuza nguvu zake za kiuchumi kuwa mtaji wa kisiasa wa kujiweka kama nguvu kuu inayoongoza. China na India zote hazina nia ya kisiasa wala uzoefu wa kuathiri siasa za dunia. Kwa muda unaoonekana mbele yetu, nchi hizi mbili zitabaki ndani ya maeneo yao ya ushawishi.

After two decades of dominating world affairs, America finds itself at the mercy of her friends and enemies. Graham Fuller, former vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council, described America’ s predicament correctly when he wrote in the latest issue of the National Interest, “diverse countries have deployed a multiplicity of strategies and tactics designed to weaken, divert, alter, complicate, limit, delay or block the Bush agenda through death by a thousand cuts.” So what happens after America has fallen from its perch as the world’ s sole super power? Europe is too divided to take up the mantle of the leading state. Russia has yet to translate her economic strength into political capital to position herself as the pre-eminent power. Both China and India lack the political will and the experience to affect world politics. For the foreseeable future, both countries will be confined to their respective spheres of influence.

Nchi inayotaka kuchukua nafasi ya Marekani lazima iwe na idadi kubwa ya watu, rasilimali nyingi, itikadi ya kimataifa, na nia ya kisiasa ya kufanikiwa. Mgombea aliye wazi zaidi ni ulimwengu wa Kiislamu chini ya Ukhalifa, jambo ambalo Bush amelizungumzia mara nyingi.

The country that wishes to supplant America must possess a huge population, abundant resources, a universal ideology and the political will to succeed. The most obvious candidate is the Muslim world under the Caliphate, which Bush has often spoken about.

Desemba 4, 2006

December 4, 2006