Dunyodagi eng katta kapitalistik davlat yurtiga birinchi marta kelganimda, Amerika Qo‘shma Shtatlaridagi kapitalistik ishlab chiqarish kuchidan hayratga tushdim. O‘n besh yoshdan kichik yosh o‘smir sifatida men yuzlab gektar yerni haydayotgan ulkan traktorlar va kombaynlarni ko‘rdim, ular bitta oila tomonidan boshqarilar, tonnalab makkajo‘xori va soya donini yetishtirardi. Men dehqonning qo‘llarini ko‘rdim: u ishlagan yer ularni qattiqlashtirgan, yer keltirgan pul esa ularni yumshatgan edi. O‘sha paytda men shu butun faoliyatni moliyalashtirayotgan bankларning ko‘zga ko‘rinmas qo‘llarini ko‘rmadim. O‘sha paytda men hech qanday muvaffaqiyatsizlik belgisini ko‘ra olmasdim.

When I arrived for the first time to the land of the largest capitalist nation in the world, I was amazed by the power of capitalist productivity in the United States of America. As a young teenager, less than sixteen years old, I saw huge tractors and combines cultivating hundreds of acres and producing tons of corn and soybean grain, all operated by a single family. I saw the hands of a farmer hardened by the land he cultivated and softened by the money his land generated. I did not see then the invisible hands of the banks financing all that operation. I could not see any signs of failure then.

Bir yil o'tgach, ta'lim taqdirim meni boshqa bir chekka tomonga uchirib yubordi. Men dunyodagi eng katta sotsialistik davlat yurtiga yetib keldim va keyingi olti yilni o'qish bilan o'tkazish hamda Sovet Sotsialistik Respublikalari Ittifoqi (SSSR)dagi sotsializmni kuzatish uchun bordim. Qanchalik tez-tez oziq-ovqat mahsulotini sotib olish uchun navbatda turganim, bir soatdan keyin esa kutgan mahsulotim endi mavjud emasligi sababli ko'nglim qolganini eslayman. Menga shunday tuyulardi: bu tuzum uzoq davom etmaydi, deb sezgilarim aytardi. Matematika yoki informatika kitobini sotib olish sharti sifatida kommunistik nashrni ham sotib olishga majbur bo'lganimni eslayman. Bu tuzum uzoq davom etmaydi, buni his qildim.

A year later, my education fate flew me to the other extreme. I arrived at the land of the largest socialist nation in the to spend the next six years studying while observing socialism in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). I recall how often I had to stand in line to buy a grocery product, only to be disappointed an hour later because the item I waited for is no longer available. That system would not last, my instincts told me. I recall having to buy a communist publication as a condition for buying a book of math or computer science. That system would not last for long, I felt it.

Men ertalab va qaytishda maktabga borish yo‘limda mast holda yotgan odamlarning ustidan hatlab o‘tishimga to‘g‘ri kelganini eslayman. Tibbiyot, huquq va muhandislik institutlaridan darslarga umuman qatnashmasdan bitiruvchi ko‘plab talabalarni eslayman; ular siyosiy faollar yoki boy xorijiy talabalar edi. Berilgan kasalxonada jarroh uchun belgilangan kvota rejasini bajarish uchun odamlarning operatsiyaga borishiga to‘g‘ri kelganini eslayman. Yotoqxonamdagi devorga o‘rnatilgan oddiy radio-monitorni eslayman, u ikki tomonlama radio bo‘lsa kerak. Radioni o‘chirganimda, har safar texnik xodimlar xonamga kelib uni tuzatardi; men hech qachon bu xizmatni so‘ramagan edim. Men o‘sha tizim uzoq davom eta olmasligini bilardim. Ichki sezgim, instinktlarim va oddiy tahlilim sovet ittifoqini tark etib, o‘qishni tugatganimdan o‘n yil o‘tib to‘g‘ri chiqdi. Sotsializm barbod bo‘ldi va Sovet Ittifoqi 1991 yilga kelib tarqatib yuborildi.

I recall having to step over people lying drunk in my morning journey to school and on my way back. I recall scores of students graduating from medical, law, and engineering schools without even attending classes; they were political activists or rich foreign students. I recall people having to go through surgery only to fulfill the quota plan for the surgeon at a given hospital. I recall the primitive radio monitor fixed on the wall of my dorm room, which must have been a two-way radio. Every time I disabled the radio, technicians would show up at my room to fix it; I never asked for the service. I knew that system could not last for long. My gut feelings, my instincts, and simple analysis turned out to be true only ten years after I graduated and left the Soviet Union. Socialism collapsed and the Soviet Union was dismantled by 1991.

Sovet Ittifoqida o'tkazgan olti yilim menga umrbod esda qoladigan tajriba berdi. Birinchidan, bugun sotsializm ostidagi hayotni xohlasam ham boshdan kechira olmayman. Eng muhimi, men sotsializm va kapitalizmning iqtisod, siyosiy iqtisod va ijtimoiy tuzilish tamoyillarini o'rgandim. Karl Marks, Vladimir Lenin va Fridrix Engels ta'limotlari o'quv dasturida matematika, fizika va muhandislik fanlari qadar muhim o'rin tutardi. Marks tomonidan ishlab chiqilgan va keyinchalik Lenin tomonidan takomillashtirilgan tarixiy materializm nazariyasi kapitalizm yo'qolib, uning o'rnini sotsializm egallashini taxmin qilar edi. Biroq sotsializm birinchi bo'lib qulaganda, bu qarash real dunyoda puchga chiqdi. Marksning "artiqcha qiymat" nazariyasi faqat shu ma'noda to'g'ri ediki, kapitalizm sharoitida boylik kamchilik qo'lida to'planishga moyil bo'ladi. Ammo nazariyaning ikkinchi qismi, ya'ni ishchilar va dehqonlarning kambag'al qatlamlari o'zlarining tortib olingan mulk huquqlari uchun isyon ko'taradi, degan fikr hech qachon amalga oshmadi.

The six years I spent in the Soviet Union gave me an experience of a lifetime. For one thing, I could not experience the life under socialism today even if I wanted to. Most importantly, I learned the principles of economy, political economy, and social structure of both socialism and capitalism. The teachings of Karl Marx, Vladimir Lenin, and Friedrich Engels were as important part of the curriculum as the subjects of math, physics, and engineering. The theory of historic materialism developed by Marx and later refined by Lenin suggested that capitalism would fade away only to give rise to socialism. That view was dead beaten in real world when socialism fell first. Marx’s theory of the “surplus value” was correct only in the sense that under capitalism the wealth tends to accumulate in the hands of the few. But the other part of the theory that the poorer classes of workers and farmers would revolt for their stolen rights of ownerships never materialized.

Ikkinchi, ammo uzoqroq davr uchun kapitalizm yurtiga kelganimda, yoshligimda birinchi safarim paytida ko'ra olmagan narsalarni kuzatdim. Birinchi safarimda yashagan fermam endi avvalgidek emas edi. Bir necha yil oldin uning ishlab chiqarishini moliyalashtirgan bank, mezbon oilam to'lay olmagan qarzlari evaziga uni musodara qilgan edi. Mehnatkash fermer yerini va aka-ukalari bilan birgalikda egalik qilgan urug' kompaniyasini yo'qotdi. Bu tizim uzoq davom etmaydi, degan fikr менга ichki sezgim orqali keldi.

When I arrived at the land of capitalism for the second but longer period of time, I observed what I could not have observed during my first trip when I was a young boy. The farm I lived in during my first trip was no longer the same. It was confiscated by the bank which, few years earlier had financed its production, in exchange for the debts which my host family failed to pay. The hardworking farmer lost his land and the seed company he co-owned with his brothers. This system would not last, my instincts told me.

Xuddi shu yirtqich, bank, Viskonsin shtatining Milvoki shahrida mening do'stimga tegishli mashina zavodini ham yutib yubordi. Esimda, do'stim mening vatanimga rivojlanayotgan mamlakatni sanoatlashtirishga yordam berish maqsadida zavod qurish uchun borgan edi. Esimda, egasi (do'stim) odamlarni ish bilan ta'minlashga, ta'limni qo'llab-quvvatlashga ishtiyoqmand edi va odamlarni ishdan bo'shatishni qanchalik yomon ko'rardi. Kapitalizm sharoitidagi boshqa har qanday biznes kabi, uning biznesi ham bank tomonidan egallangan edi. Odatda kapitalistik mamlakatlardagi korxonalar bir yoki bir nechta bankka qarzdor bo'ladi. Men hali ham kichik texnologiya kompaniyasi egasiga investitsiya bankining vakili aytgan so'zlarni eslayman: "Qarzga botmasdan turib biznes qila olmaysiz." Mashina zavodi egasi bo'lgan do'stim o'z mashina sexini yo'qotdi, aynan kapitalizm yurtida haqiqiy mahsulotlar ishlab chiqarayotgan sexni. U mahsulot ishlab chiqarib, foyda keltirayotgan edi, shunda bank uni musodara qildi. Bank bir muddat do'stimning hayot sug'urtasi polisini, go'yoki yo'qolgan boyligi uchun kafolat sifatida, ta'qib qilib yurdi! Shunda men bu tizim uzoq davom etmasligini bildim.

The same monster, the bank, swallowed the machine factory owned by one of my friends in the city of Milwaukee in Wisconsin. I recall how my friend traveled to my home country in attempt to set up a factory to help industrialize a developing country. I recall how the owner (my friend) was enthusiastic about helping people get jobs, supporting education, and how much he detested laying people off their jobs. Just like every other business under capitalism, his was also owned by the bank. Typically, businesses in capitalist countries are indebted to one or more banks. I still recall the words of an investing bank representative to the owner of a small technology company: “You cannot be in businesses without being in debt.” My machine factory owner friend lost his machine shop, the one that produces real products right here in the land of capitalism. It was making products and generating profit when it was confiscated by the bank. The banks for some time were going after the life insurance policy of my friend as a guarantee for their supposedly lost wealth! I knew then that this system would not last.

Mening xizmat davrimda, dunyodagi eng yirik korporatsiyalardan birida (o‘sha paytda 160 000 dan ortiq xodim bilan), eng yaxshi muhandis va texniklarning ko‘plab qismi ishdan bo‘shatish bahonasida binodan olib chiqib ketilganini ko‘rdim. Ellik ming dan ortiq ish o‘rnini bekor qilgan birinchi ishdan bo‘shatish to‘lqini kompaniya foyda ko‘rib, katta pul topayotgan bir paytda amalga oshirildi. Bu ishdan bo‘shatishlar kompaniyaning aksiyalar narxini oshirish uchun zarur edi, aksiyalar narxi esa osmonga ko‘tarildi.

During my tenure at one of the largest corporations in the world (more than 160,000 employees at the time), I witnessed how scores of the best engineers and technicians were escorted out of the building under the auspices of layoff. The first round of layoffs which eliminated more than fifty thousand jobs was done at a time when the company was profitable and making lots of money. The layoffs were necessary to boost the stock prices of the company which have soared over the roof.

Men bu faqat hikoyalar, sezgilar va ichki his-tuyg'ular ekanini tan olaman. Unday bo'lsa, agar bor bo'lsa, muvaffaqiyatsizlikning belgilari qayerda? Axir, kapitalizm o'tmishda bir necha bor retsessiya, depressiya, tanazzul, past unumdorlik va korporativ inqirozlarni boshidan kechirgan. U har doim kuchliroq, hatto undan ham kuchliroq bo'lib chiqqan. Nega bu safar boshqacha?

I admit that these are just stories, instincts, and guts feelings. So where are the signs of failure if there are any? After all, capitalism has gone through several rounds of recessions, depressions, downturns, low productivity, and corporate failures in the past. It has always emerged as strong or even stronger. Why is it different this time?

Oldin tushuntirilganidek, nuqsonlar yoki kamchiliklar avtomatik ravishda xatolarga olib kelmaydi. Xatolar esa har doim ham muvaffaqiyatsizlikka olib kelmaydi. Nuqson faqat ma'lum shartlar yuzaga kelib, o'sha nuqsonni ishga tushirganda xatoga aylanadi. Faqat shundan keyin xato yuz beradi. Xato tizimning normal ishlashidan chetga chiqishidir. Agar xato to'g'ri kuzatilsa, aniqlansa, ajratilsa va to'g'ri cheklansa, muvaffaqiyatsizlikning oldini olish mumkin. Har qanday fizik tizimdagi kabi, xatodan yoki tizimning normal ishlashidan chetga chiqishdan tiklanish avtomatik emas; tizimni qayta tiklash va muvaffaqiyatsizlikning oldini olish uchun muammolarni to'g'ri aniqlash va ajratish hamda to'g'ri cheklash zarur.

As explained earlier, faults or defects do not necessarily generate errors. And errors do not necessarily lead to failure. A fault generates an error only when certain conditions occur and trigger that fault. Only then an error occurs. An error is a deviation from the normal behavior of the system. If the error is observed, detected, isolated, and contained properly, then failure could be avoided. Just like in any physical system, the recovery from an error or a deviation from the normal behavior of the system is not automatic; a correct identification and isolation of the problems and a correct containment is absolute necessity to restore the system and to prevent failure.

1929-yilgi Buyuk iqtisodiy inqiroz iqtisodiyot va umuman bozorning noto'g'ri harakati edi. Fond birjasi qulab tushdi; ko'p odamlar yerlarini, fermalarini, uylarini va kompaniyalarini yo'qotdi. Iqtisodiyotni qayta tiklash va bozorning noto'g'ri harakatini bartaraf etib, tizimning normal ishlashini qayta tiklash uchun bir necha yil va katta urush (Ikkinchi jahon urushi) kerak bo'ldi. Inqirozga olib kelgan sharoitlar (ya'ni iqtisodiyotning noto'g'ri harakati) shishirilgan aksiya qiymatlari bilan bog'liq edi, buni 1929-yil 2-noyabrda The Economist jurnali xabar qilgan: “Amerika aksiya qiymatlarining haddan tashqari shishirilgan ballonining deflyatsiyasi dunyo uchun foydali bo'ladi, degan umid uchun asos bor”134. Xabar qilinishicha, 1925-yildan 1929-yilgacha bo'lgan davrda moliya bozori narxlari 120% ga oshgan, holbuki shu davrdagi iqtisodiy o'sish 17% dan oshmagan. Bozor qulaganda esa o'z qiymatining 93% dan ortig'ini yo'qotdi, bu bozor aslida fond birjasi ko'rsatgan qiymatdan ancha past bo'lgan haqiqiy normal qiymatiga qaytganini anglatadi.

The great depression of the 1929 was an erroneous behavior of the economy and the market at large. The stock market collapsed; many people lost their lands, farms, homes, and companies. It took several years of rebuilding the economy and a great war (World War II) to contain the erroneous behavior of the market and to resume a normal functioning of the system. The conditions which led to the depression (i.e., the erroneous behavior of the economy) were related to inflated stock values as reported by the Economist magazine on November 2, 1929: “There is warrant for hoping that the deflation of the exaggerated balloon of American stock values will be for the good of the world”134. It was reported that the prices of financial market increased during the period between 1925 and 1929 by 120%, while economic growth for the same period has not exceeded 17%. And when the market has collapsed, it lost over 93% of its value, which means that the market returned to its real normal value which was obviously much lower than what the stock market had indicated.

1987 yilda yana bir bozor xatosi yuz berdi, bozor qayta qulab tushdi. Kuzatuvchilar moliya bozori narxlari haqiqiy iqtisodiyot hajmiga nisbatan sezilarli darajada shishib ketganini qayd etdilar, shishirilgan qiymatlar bilan haqiqiy qiymatlar o'rtasidagi farq 200% dan ortiq edi. Bu noto'g'ri xatti-harakatning oqibatlarini cheklash uchun yana bir katta miqyosdagi urush kerak bo'ldi. Ota Jorj Bush boshchiligidagi Fors ko'rfazi urushi muammoni cheklashga va iqtisodiyotni yana o'zining odatiy holatiga qaytarishga yordam berdi.

Another market error occurred in 1987 when the market collapsed again. Observers noted that the prices of financial market had inflated significantly compared with the real size of the economy, where the difference between the inflated values and the real ones was more than 200%. It took another war of large magnitude to contain the effects of this erroneous behavior. The Gulf War led by George Bush, the father, helped contain the problem and bring the economy back to its normal behavior.

1999-yilda iqtisodiyot yana bir xatoni keltirib chiqardi: "Internet pufagi" deb ataladigan hodisa parchalanib ketdi va bozor yuz milliardlab virtual dollarni yo'qotdi. Iqtisodiyot keskin pasayish tomon ketayotgan edi. Yana bir bor "cheklash" choralari ishga tushirildi: uzoq davom etgan urush! Bu safar urush xatoni cheklashga ham, inqirozni tugatishga ham muvaffaq bo'lmadi. Aksincha, terrorizmga qarshi kurash nomi bilan Afg'onistonga va Iroqqa qarshi boshlangan urushlar inqirozni yanada kuchaytirdi va moliyaviy muammolarni chuqurlashtirdi. 2008-yil kelganda inqiroz jiddiy cho'qqiga yetdi. Faqat Qo'shma Shtatlarning o'zida 1,5 trillion dollardan ortiq miqdorida ulkan davlat aralashuvi qulab borayotgan iqtisodiyotga shoshilinch yordam sifatida berildi. Ko'plab olimlar darhol bir davrning, liberal kapitalizm davrining tugaganini e'lon qilishga shoshildilar.

In 1999, the economy generated another error when the so called “Internet bubble” was deflated and the market lost hundreds of billions of virtual dollars. The economy was heading to a steep dive. The containment procedure was invoked again: a lengthy war! This time the war did not succeed in containing the error or ending the crisis. On the contrary, the wars launched in the name of fighting terrorism against Afghanistan and Iraq fueled up the crisis and deepened the financial problems. By the time the year 2008 arrived, the crisis had reached a serious peak. A massive government intervention with more than $1.5 trillion in the United States alone was rushed to the aid of a failing economy. Scores of scholars rushed to declare an end of an era, the era of liberal capitalism.

Garchi joriy inqirozning ildiz sabablari oldingilaridan sezilarli darajada farq qilmasa ham, joriy inqirozga olib kelgan sharoitlar, uning vujudga kelgan muhiti hamda uni cheklash choralari sezilarli darajada boshqacha. Oxirgi moliyaviy inqirozning ikkita asosiy belgisi ajralib turdi, ular kapitalizmning siyosiy iqtisodiyotini barbod qilish qobiliyatiga ega. Birinchisi — real iqtisodiyot yonida paydo bo'lgan virtual iqtisodiyotdir. Ikkinchisi — xususiy banklar, sug'urta kompaniyalari, avtomobil sanoati, ko'chmas mulk va boshqalarni hukumat tomonidan ulkan miqdorda sotib olinishidir. Bu ikki hodisa keyingi bo'limlarda muhokama qilinadi.

Although the root causes of the current crisis are not significantly different from the previous ones, the conditions which led to the current crisis and the environment in which it functioned, as well as the containment procedures, are significantly different. Two major phenomena emerged as prominent signs of the most recent financial crisis, which have the capacity of collapsing the political economy of capitalism. The first is the creation of virtual economy parallel to the real economy. The second one is a massive government buyout of private banks, insurance companies, auto industry, real estate, and more. These two phenomena will be discussed in the next subsections.