1.2 诊断
1.2 Diagnosis
虽然人人都承认资本主义这个病人已是慢性病患,但对于我们如何走到今天这一步,分析却颇有争议。许多右翼意识形态者仍在宣扬资本主义的优越性,前总统乔治·W·布什在9月24日的电视讲话中就是如此。他们的观点是,资本主义的根本仍然稳固,所发生的只是过度行为和错误决策。布什此前在一次私人募款活动的讲话中,把华尔街的行为比作喝醉酒后又面临宿醉。这些意识形态者虽然承认局势的严重性,但回应各异:布什及其财政部长、高盛前首席执行官亨利·保尔森支持政府大规模救市,而其他保守派则视任何政府救市为不可容忍之事,正如一位政治人物(众议员萨姆·约翰逊)所言,这无异于走上社会主义的道路。至于左翼人士,其幸灾乐祸溢于言表。他们几十年来一直反对不受约束的自由市场,如今认为资本主义种下的恶果终于自食其果。
Though everyone agrees that the capitalist patient is chronically sick, an analysis of how we got here is more controversial. Many right wing ideologues continue to preach the superiority of capitalism as former President George W Bush did in his televised address on 24th September. Their view is that the fundamentals of capitalism remain strong and that what happened is a case of excess and bad decision making. In remarks at a private fundraiser Bush had earlier compared Wall Street’s behaviour to someone getting drunk and now facing a hangover. Though accepting the seriousness of the situation such ideologues differ in their response, whereas Bush and his Treasury Secretary and former CEO of Goldman Sachs, Henry Paulson, favour large Government bailouts, other conservatives find any government bailout an anathema, akin as one politician (Representative Sam Johnson) stated, to embarking down the road of socialism. For those on the left their glee is palpable, having argued against unfettered free markets for decades, they now believe capitalism’s chickens have come home to roost.
左翼认为,这场危机有两个根源。其一是华尔街的贪婪和腐败行为;其二是放松管制的文化,其结果是监管要么缺位,要么形同虚设,玩忽职守。他们的解决方案非常简单:严厉打击华尔街的奖金和薪酬文化,并加强监管与监督。
The left see that this crisis has two causes. Firstly the greed and corrupt practices of Wall Street and secondly the culture of deregulation which resulted in either regulation being absent, or asleep at the switch. Their solution is very simple, crackdown on the bonus and remuneration culture on Wall Street and beef up regulation and oversight.
然而,无论是左派还是右派,都误判了这场危机的根源。尽管两者都指向一种过度与监管失当的文化,但他们试图把这些问题与资本主义割裂开来,仿佛所表现出的行为与资本主义的核心价值毫无关联。但贪婪与放松管制之于资本主义,就如同引擎之于汽车,是不可或缺的。指望资本主义在没有贪婪、没有高风险冒险的赌场式文化的情况下有效运行,就如同指望狗不叫一样不切实际。贪婪、高风险冒险和破坏规则,正是驱动整个资本主义体系的根本动力。华尔街和伦敦金融城的许多银行文化恰恰证明了这一点。它们充满阳刚之气,极度看重物质野心,期望人们为工作而活,而不是为生活而工作,任何软弱的表现都会遭到鄙视。在高薪与巨额奖金的推动下,贪婪的文化不仅被期待,而且是成功的必要条件。这些傲慢的华尔街和伦敦金融城交易员自称为"宇宙的主宰"。大多数理性的人都相信,主导金融服务业的资本主义文化容易走向过度,因此必须进行有效监管,对此并无太大争议。然而,出于以下原因,任何程度的监管都无法从根本上驯服资本主义:
However, both those on the left and right have misdiagnosed the causes of the crisis. Though both point to a culture of excess and regulatory mismanagement, they seek to detach this away from capitalism as if the behaviour exhibited was somehow detached from the core values of capitalism. But greed and deregulation are as essential to capitalism as an engine is to a car. Expecting that capitalism can effectively operate without greed and a risk-taking casino culture of high risk taking, is like expecting a dog not to bark. Greed, high-risk taking and bending the rules are the essential oils that drive the whole capitalist system. The culture in many of the banks in Wall Street and the City of London exactly proves this point. They are testosterone rich, they put a premium on material ambition, they expect people to live to work, not work to live and any weakness is frowned upon. Fuelled by their high salaries and extraordinary bonuses, a culture of greed is not just expected but is obligatory if one is to succeed. These arrogant Wall Street and city traders call themselves “Masters of the Universe”. There is little controversy over this in the sense that most reasonable people believe the capitalist culture that dominates the financial services industry is prone to excess, which is why there must be effective regulation. However, no amount of regulation can ever mitigate capitalism, for the following reasons:
1. 首先,一些正在交易的金融产品的复杂程度呈指数级增长。监管机构即便在最好的时候也很难称得上灵活敏捷,而在一个产品创新迅速、变化频繁的世界里,监管者更是疲于跟进。他们的知识和能力远远落后于被监管的对象,以至于在大多数日子里,他们即便睡个懒觉,对实际效果也不会有什么两样。
1. Firstly, the complexity of some of the financial products being traded has grown exponentially. Regulators at the best of times are hardly the most agile of entities, in a world where product innovation is rapid and fast changing, regulators struggle to keep up. Their knowledge and capabilities are far behind those that they are regulating meaning that they might as well sleep-in on most days for all the good they do.
2. 其次,公司向政客付费,以使监管机构不来干涉其业务。这主要通过竞选捐款和其他各种好处来实现。这通常能确保监管者受到约束。但如果这一“大棒”不奏效,那么未来在私营部门获得丰厚工作的“胡萝卜”始终摆在那里。监管机构与私营部门之间存在着不健康的“旋转门”现象,这使整个监督程序形同虚设。
2. Secondly, companies pay politicians to keep regulators off their back. This is through campaign contributions and other favours. This usually ensures regulators are kept in check. But if this stick doesn’t work, then the carrot of future lucrative work in the private sector is always on the table. There is an unhealthy revolving door between the regulators and the private sector which makes a mockery of the whole oversight process.
3. 最后,监管者总是事后反应,亡羊补牢。在重大危机和丑闻之后加强监管十分常见,但对预测下一次危机几乎没有帮助。例如,安然事件之后出台了《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》,该法案虽然给会计师和风险管理专家带来了丰厚的收入,却完全无法防范或预见次贷危机。因此,试图监管资本主义是不可能的,这就像用一个如今已臭名昭著的比喻来说,是在给猪涂口红。
3. Lastly, regulators are always reactive, fighting the last war. Increasing regulation after a major crisis and scandal is common, but is hardly relevant to forecasting the next crisis. For instance after the Enron crisis, Sarbanes Oxley was introduced which, though lucrative for accountants and risk specialists, was entirely useless in preventing or even anticipating the sub prime crisis. So trying to regulate capitalism is impossible, it is – using a now infamous metaphor - like trying to put lipstick on a pig.
事实与普遍的看法相反,如果把资本主义扔进废纸篓,世界并不会因此终结。在全球资本主义出现之前,进步、发展和科技就已经繁荣兴盛,它们同样可以再次繁荣。然而,全球金融的“高级祭司”们仍然拒绝承认现实,认为尽管当前正处于系统性危机之中,资本主义仍将重新夺回其崇高地位。乔治·布什在9月24日的讲话中重申了这一观点,他表示民主资本主义仍然是最好的制度。2002年,一篇颇具影响力的演讲引用了如下一段话,这段话与今天的事件有着重要的关联:多年来,美国经济展现出非凡的能力,能够吸收各种冲击、恢复元气并持续增长。劳动力和资本市场的灵活与高效、企业家精神的传统,以及普遍愿意容忍甚至拥抱技术和经济变革,共同造就了这种韧性。在当前环境下,一个尤为重要的保护因素是我们金融体系的实力:尽管过去一年遭受了各种不利冲击,我们的银行体系依然健康且监管良好,企业和家庭的资产负债表总体状况良好。这篇演讲的作者是本·伯南克,也就是那个提出“印钞机”言论的伯南克。但伯南克在2002年就判断错了,布什现在也判断错了:资本主义无法被改良,它需要被取代。
Contrary to popular perception, the world would not end if capitalism was consigned to the waste paper bin. Progress, advancement, technology all prospered before the inception of global capitalism and they can prosper again. Yet the high priests of global finance remain in denial, believing that despite the current systemic crisis, capitalism will once again regain its lofty position. This was reiterated by George Bush in his address of September 24th in which he stated that democratic capitalism remains the best system. In 2002 a prominent speech cited the following statement which has significant relevance to today’s events Over the years, the US economy has shown a remarkable ability to absorb shocks of all kinds, to recover, and to continue to grow. Flexible and efficient markets for labor and capital, an entrepreneurial tradition, and a general willingness to tolerate and even embrace technological and economic change all contribute to this resiliency. A particularly important protective factor in the current environment is the strength of our financial system: Despite the adverse shocks of the past year, our banking system remains healthy and well-regulated, and firm and household balance sheets are for the most part in good shape. That speech was given by Ben Bernanke - the same Bernanke of the ‘printing press’ quote. But Bernanke was wrong in 2002 and Bush is wrong now, capitalism cannot be reformed it needs to be replaced.