2.3 多米诺效应
2.3 The Domino Effect
当银行资产价值蒸发之际,贷款头寸也不得不随着短期借贷的枯竭而被偿还。实际上,银行正陷入一个去杠杆的下行螺旋之中,近年来累积起来的巨额贷款头寸不得不被逐步解除。即便是较为保守的欧洲银行,也面临同样的问题,因为它们严重依赖三个月期的贷款融资,以维持其相对于长期投资的头寸。此外,随着市场急剧下跌,对冲基金、投资基金及相关机构正面临其杠杆头寸带来的巨额保证金追缴压力,再加上客户大量赎回基金份额,因为每个人都争相逃离这艘正在下沉的投资之船。
While Bank asset values are evaporating, loan positions are having to be repaid as short term lending dries up. Effectively the banks are being caught in a downward spiral of deleveraging in which the massive loan positions built up in recent years have to be unwound. Even the more conservative European banks are facing the same problems as they rely heavily on three month loan financing to maintain their positions vis a vis their long term investments. Additionally the Hedge funds, investment funds and associated groups are facing heavy margin calls against their leveraged positions as the markets dramatically drop, added to high levels of customer withdrawals from their funds, as everyone clambers to get off the sinking investment ship.
与英国高街或美国主街上银行门外排成长队的景象不同,互联网时代使银行免于这种窘迫。然而,存款人用“点击”投票,将资金从银行账户大规模转移到他们认为安全的避风港。这是一场较不显眼、但同样具有毁灭性的挤兑。存款基础下降、信贷紧缩、大量衍生品相关损失,以及人们对下一个可能倒闭的机构完全缺乏信心,这些因素叠加成一场完美风暴,使得许多银行实际上已濒临崩溃,事实上不少银行在技术上已经破产。因此,它们的首席执行官纷纷奔向政府寻求援助,也就不足为奇了。
Rather than queues around the corner from bank offices in the high streets of the UK and main streets of the US, the internet age has spared the banks from that indignity. Nevertheless deposit holders voted with their “clicks” moving money out of bank accounts on mass to wherever and whoever was seen as a safe port in the storm. A less visible run on the banks, yes, but no less devastating. A perfect storm of dropping deposit base, credit contraction, heavy derivative based losses and complete lack of confidence in who next might collapse meant that many banks were effectively on the brink of collapse, indeed many were technically bankrupt. It was no surprise that their Chief Executives beat a track to the door of their governments for help.