不稳定是缺乏平衡，即货币价值与商品之间缺少合理的关系。一种颇为流行的观点是金融不稳定假说，该假说认为，经济体存在使其保持稳定的金融格局，也存在使其变得不稳定的融资格局；并且在长期繁荣时期，经济会从促成稳定系统的金融关系转变为促成不稳定系统的金融关系10。此外，如果一个经济体中存在大量投机性金融单位，并且处于通货膨胀状态，而当局试图通过货币紧缩来遏制通胀，那么这些投机性单位将迅速消失，导致资产价值崩溃。金融不稳定假说是对资本主义经济的一种模型，它并不依赖外生冲击来产生不同严重程度的经济周期。

Instability is a lack of balance – a reasonable relationship between value of money and goods. A prominent view is the financial instability hypothesis, which states that the economy has financial regimes under which it is stable, and financing regimes in which it is unstable, and that, in periods of prolonged prosperity, the economy transits from financial relations that make for a stable system to financial relations that make for an unstable system10. Furthermore, if an economy with a sizeable body of speculative financial units is in an inflationary state, and the authorities attempt to exorcise inflation by monetary constraint, then the speculative units will quickly evaporate leading to a collapse of asset values. The financial instability hypothesis is a model of capitalist economy, which does not rely upon exogenous shocks to generate business cycles of varying severity.

奥地利学派接受不稳定假说对当前局面的描述，但认为它并不能提供令人满意的解释，因此不能将矛头直接指向资本主义本身。他们的结论是，这种不稳定只是大政府通过中央银行进行干预又一次失败的结果。例如：假设杰克在银行存入了100英镑的真实储蓄（比如来自务农所得）。杰克有权随时要求取回这100英镑。再假设银行随后将50英镑借给了吉尔。此时，我们有150英镑的存款和贷款，却只有100英镑的准备金作为支撑（这是现代银行业普遍采用的做法，称为部分准备金银行制度）。为说明问题，假设杰克和吉尔分别用支票在一家商店购买了价值100英镑和50英镑的商品。银行现在面临50英镑的缺口。奥地利学派认为，在自由市场中，如果银行进行无准备金支持的信用扩张，就有被揭穿的风险，因此破产的威胁将起到威慑作用。由此可见，明斯基的不稳定假说只适用于具有现行制度安排的现代资本主义经济，而不适用于没有大政府的自由市场资本主义。

The Austrians accept the instability hypothesis as describing what is happening, but also feel it does not provide a satisfactory explanation, hence cannot indict capitalism as such. They conclude that the instability is yet another failure of big government intervention through central banks. For example: if Jack deposits £100 of real savings (say from farming) in a bank. Jack has the right to demand his £100 at any time. Let us say that the bank then lends £50 out to Jill. At this stage, we have £150 backed by £100 (a universal practice in modern banking called fractional reserve banking). To make it clear, let us say Jack and Jill purchase £100 and £50 worth of goods with cheque payments from a shop. The bank now faces a shortfall of £50. The Austrians argue that in a free market, if a bank engages in unbacked expansion of credit, it runs the risk of being caught, and therefore the threat of bankruptcy is likely to serve as a deterrent. Hence Minsky’s instability hypothesis only applies to the modern capitalist economy with its institutional setup and not free market capitalism devoid of big governments11.

引发不稳定假说的原因在本质上是心理和病理性的，而奥地利学派所指出的原因则在本质上是制度性的。两者都没有提出可靠的替代方案来实现稳定。绝对的自由市场无政府状态永远无法持续，不会被任何社会接受，而且是自相矛盾的，因为执行自由市场的人按定义本身就是在进行干预。至于凯恩斯主义者和后凯恩斯主义者，关于何种监管和限制是适当的，始终会存在争议。市场将不断演变，一场接一场地面临危机，因为它会依据基于现实的观念（而且常常是吝啬的）行事，从而使经济容易受到内部和外部波动的影响。

The causes cited by the instability hypothesis is psychological and pathological in nature, and the cause cited by the Austrians is institutional in nature. Both do not provide founded alternatives that provide stability. Absolute free market anarchy could never be sustainable, would never be accepted by any community and is self-contradictory, for the one who enforces the free market is intervening by definition. As for the Keynesians and the post Keynesians, there would always be disputes on what regulations and limits are appropriate. The market would evolve perpetually, facing crisis after crisis, as it suits its ideas based in reality (often parsimoniously) rendering the economy vulnerable to internal and external fluctuations.

毫无疑问，中央银行模式是经济所面临问题的核心。因为它使银行能够直接借入资金，或出售其部分资产以换取现金。关键问题在于：中央银行的流动性从何而来？——它只是凭空印制，没有任何资产作为支撑。银行也可以向其他银行借款，但这可能推高利率，从而抑制借款人的需求。现代银行体系由中央银行引导和协调，中央银行通过联合扩张无资产支持的信贷来注入资金，从而确保投资和支出所需的充足流动性。

It is undeniable that the central bank model is central to the problem facing the economy. For it allows the bank to directly borrow or sell some of its assets for cash. The key question is where does the central bank get its liquidity? – it just prints it with no backing. The bank could also borrow from other banks, but that could increase interest rates, which slows down demand from borrowers. The modern banking system is guided and coordinated by the central bank, which ensures sufficient liquidity for investments and expenditures by injecting money through a joint expansion of unbacked credit.

显然,正是美联储在2000年12月至2004年6月间的宽松货币政策——将联邦基金利率(联邦基金的借贷利率)从6.5%降至1%——为泡沫活动的出现奠定了基础。随后,在2004年6月至2007年9月间,美联储又将联邦基金利率从1%提高到5.25%。这种流动性收紧削弱了泡沫化的房地产市场(此前已有诸多预警),并于2007年底使其承受了接近萧条级别的压力。联邦基金利率是调控经济的公开市场工具之一。庞大的规模、全球化、证券化以及复杂衍生品的爆炸式增长相互叠加,共同导致了一场灾难性的崩溃,其严重程度堪比1929年的大萧条。以上内容为突出两个根本性的系统要素提供了合理的背景,这两个要素是繁荣与萧条周期的根源所在:

Evidently, it was the loose monetary policy of the Fed between Dec. 2000 and Jun. 2004 i.e. lowering Fed funds rate (interest rate of lending federal funds) from 6.5% to 1% that laid the foundation for the emergence of the bubble activities. And then between Jun. 2004 and Sep. 2007, the Fed raised the Fed funds rate from 1% to 5.25%. This tightening of liquidity undermined the bubble housing market (which had ample warnings); gaining bust-level pressure by the end of 2007. The Fed funds rate is one of the open market levers to regulate the economy. The sheer volume, globalisation, securitisation and a veritable explosion in complex derivatives have combined in a way to make for a calamitous bust, rivalling the great depression of 1929. The above provides a reasonable backdrop to highlight two fundamental systemic elements, which underlie the causes of boom and bust:

1. 缺乏诸如金本位之类的标准（使得可以进行无储备支持的铸造）。

1. Lack of a standard such as the gold standard (allows unbacked minting).

2. 基于利息的银行业务（它鼓励通过借贷积累债务以获取高额回报）。

2. Interest based banking (which encourages debt accumulation for high returns).

目前，即便在西方，人们也已对上述两方面相当担忧。主张回归金本位的人很多，其中包括奥地利学派经济学的追随者、客观主义者和自由主义者，他们之所以支持，主要是因为他们信奉自由市场的理念，即反对政府通过中央银行发行法定货币所扮演的角色。就连艾伦·格林斯潘也曾肯定金本位的重要性："放弃金本位，使福利国家主义者得以利用银行体系，无限扩张信贷……在没有金本位的情况下，就无法通过通货膨胀来保护储蓄免遭没收……赤字开支不过是一种没收财富的手段。金本位则阻挡了这一阴险的过程。它是产权的守护者。若能理解这一点，就不难明白国家主义者为何敌视金本位。"12.

There is already considerable concern, even in the west, over both of the above. The return to the gold standard is supported by many including followers of the Austrian School of Economics, objectivists and libertarians largely because their free market ideals i.e. their objection to the role of the government in issuing fiat currency through central banks. Even Alan Greenspan had attested to the importance of the gold standard, “The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit... In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation… Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.” 12.

替代模型不应存在这些弱点。固定的货币本位制度和无息银行业务,构成了一个可持续体系的若干关键制度基础。

Any alternative model should not possess these weaknesses. The fixed currency standard and interest free banking form some of the key institutional basis for a sustainable system.