5.7 通货膨胀与黄金/白银的对比
5.7 Inflation Versus Gold/silver
自古以来,人类一直使用一种交换媒介来促进贸易和社会中服务的提供。为了确保交易的公平和信心,所选定作为交换媒介的东西必须保持稳定并具有真实价值,这一点至关重要。古兰经的训令通过多处经文明确指出,伊斯兰社会实行金银双本位货币制度。虽然伊斯兰教法并不禁止拥有其他(非金或银的)货币,但伊斯兰国家既不能也不会实行任何其他货币本位,并且完全摒弃那种不以任何资产为支撑的法定货币制度。伊斯兰教为与货币相关的所有规定都确立了准则,这些规定涉及金和银,它们既作为所有商品和服务的交换媒介,也作为交易的货币,无论是以铸币形式还是以金属矿块形式。金和银都是理想的交换媒介,因为它们具有内在价值(包括用于首饰和工业用途),分布广泛,不会被垄断,并且其供应量稳定而又在增长,足以满足不断发展的经济的需求。例如,黄金的年供应增长率为2%。
For centuries mankind has used a medium of exchange to facilitate trade and the provision of services in society. To ensure fairness and confidence in trade it has been vital that there be stability and real value in that which was chosen to be the medium of exchange. Quranic injunction has made it clear via many references that the Islamic society operate a bi-metallic currency standard of gold and silver. Whilst the Shariah did not forbid the ownership of other (non gold or silver) currencies, the Islamic state cannot and will not operate any other currency standard, and the fiat based systems where currencies are not backed by any assets at all is completely shunned. Islam made all the rules linked to currency, linked to gold and silver in their capacity as a medium of exchange for all goods and services and as currency for exchange, both as coins and as ore. Gold and silver are both ideal to act as mediums of exchange because they have intrinsic value (including jewellery and industrial use) are widely available, cannot be dominated (monopolised) and there is a regular, yet growing supply of them to meet the needs of growing economies. The annual increase in gold supply for example is 2%.
布雷顿森林协定于1944年确立,规定世界主要经济体实行固定汇率制度,黄金以每盎司35美元的价格固定,其他货币则与美元挂钩(因而也与黄金挂钩)。该体系运行有效,直至理查德·尼克松于1971年8月单方面让美国脱离金本位,转而采用不以任何黄金为担保的自由浮动法定货币。此后,全球美元供应量急剧膨胀,年通货膨胀率从本世纪此前历史水平的2%增至三倍,平均超过6%,并在一些国家飙升至20%以上。
The Breton Woods agreement in 1944 established that the main economies of the world would operate on a fixed exchange basis with gold fixed at $35 per ounce, and other currencies fixed against the dollar (and therefore gold). This system operated effectively until Richard Nixon unilaterally took the US off the gold standard in August 1971 and utilised a free floating fiat currency with no backing of gold whatsoever. Following this decision, the supply of US dollars globally ballooned and annual inflation trebled from 2% historically that century to an average of more than 6% and peaking at more that 20% in some countries.
金钱本身并不是财富,它只是衡量财富的一种特定计量单位,其价值取决于对货币供应量的控制是否稳健。当中央银行通过印钞向金融市场注入大量资金(增加流动性)时,这并不会增加财富;它可以加快金融交易,但根据前述某些因素,这可能会创造或消灭财富,例如由于通货膨胀所致。
Money itself is not wealth, merely one particular measuring unit of wealth, which is dependent upon the soundness of the control over the volume of money. When central banks flood financial markets with money by printing more (increasing liquidity), this does not add wealth; it can accelerate financial transactions but this can create or destroy wealth depending on certain factors as mentioned, for example due to inflation.
在实体经济中,财富是通过创造生产性的实物资产而产生的,例如农业产品、制成品等,这些资产随后被出售以获取利润。财富的增长则依靠提高产量来实现(即生产更多的商品和服务,并将其出售以获取利润)。
In the real economy, wealth is created by the creation of productive hard assets such as agriculture, manufactured products etc, which are then sold for a profit. Wealth is increased by increasing production (i.e. you produce more goods and services and sell them for a profit).
如果向金融市场注入大量资金,就会造成通货膨胀。原因在于,同样数量的商品周围追逐的货币更多,这会使货币贬值,结果是在一段时间内,人们必须用更多的钱去换取同样的商品。今天一瓶可乐的价格比十年前高出100%,主要就是因为货币的价值下降了。与此同时,房产、土地或黄金等资产不会贬值,因为它们始终保持着内在价值。但是,由于纸币法定货币的价值不断下跌,最终结果是购买力(即货币购买商品和服务的能力)降低了。因此,从实际意义上说,财富实际上在缩水,因为相对于真正的硬资产,货币正在贬值。如今我们看到,尽管我们的收入比以往任何时候都高,人们的储蓄能力却随着时间的推移而削弱了。货币的实际购买力下降了,因为资产的价值总体保持不变,但购买硬资产(土地、房产、商品)所需的货币数量却在增加。总体而言,与二十年前的人相比,今天的人储蓄得非常少。
If you flood financial markets with money you create inflation. This is because there is more money chasing around the same number of goods, which devalues money and means you have to exchange more money for the same goods over a period of time. That a bottle of coke today costs 100% more than it did 10 years ago, is primarily because the value of money has been devalued. At the same time, assets such as property, land, or gold do not devalue as they keep the same intrinsic value at all times, but since the value of paper fiat money is falling, the net effect is that the purchasing power (ability of money to buy goods and services) is lowered, and hence in real terms wealth is actually falling, because money is being devalued, compared to real hard assets. Today we have witnessed that people’s ability to save has been diminished over time, despite the fact that we are earning more than ever. The purchasing power of money has declined in real terms as the value of assets generally remains the same, but the amount of money required to buy hard assets (land, property, goods) is increasing. In general terms people today save very little compared to people only two decades ago.
伊斯兰重视财富,并力求通过确保其政策不致贬损货币价值来保护人们的财富。伊斯兰制度不允许随意印制货币,因为其所有货币都必须以金银储备百分之百作为担保。这意味着货币本身相对于一切资产都具有价值。因此,土地对消费者而言的价值将始终与黄金的价值保持相称。这就为国家货币的价值创造了稳定与信心。
Islam put the emphasis on wealth and seeks to guard people’s wealth by ensuring that its policies do not devalue money. The Islamic system does not allow the printing of money as it pleases since all its currency must be 100% backed by gold or silver reserves. This means that the currency itself has a value relative to all assets. So this means that the value to the consumer of land will always remain in proportion to the value of gold. This creates stability and confidence in the value of the State’s currency.
此外,由于伊斯兰国家不印刷货币,因为它无法印制更多的黄金,所以不会出现货币数量增多而商品数量不变的情况;因此,伊斯兰体系在很大程度上不受通货膨胀的影响,因为通货膨胀的主要成因是货币的随意印制(尽管还有其他因素)。在伊斯兰国家内,随着企业和个人积累财富,通货膨胀将是罕见的现象;他们的财富不会贬值。由于需求的持续增长和技术的不断进步,经济持续增长,只有在黄金供应出现异常增长的情况下,通货膨胀或货币贬值才有可能发生,而这种情况不太可能出现。即便如此,国家的分配义务和生活水平的不断提高也会带来相应的增长,从而稳定供应中这种不太可能出现的剧烈波动。经济的健康并不取决于对财富增长的信心,而在于民众过上良好生活的能力。伊斯兰经济中的增长,并不被视为与往年相比GDP的单纯增加,而是一种更为全面、更为深刻的衡量标准,即社会中的交易在数量、质量和公平性方面是否有所改善。因此,当今各国所追求的数量化GDP增长,若导致生活方式的衰退,便不被视为增长,而是衰退。追求增长是人类的天性;提升增长能力是科学的课题,而科学从不匮乏。然而,实现没有繁荣与萧条交替的可持续宏观增长,则是经济体系所面临的难题,而这只有伊斯兰教才能解决。
Furthermore, since the Islamic state does not print money because it cannot print more gold, there will not be an increasing amount of money chasing the same number of goods; hence the Islamic system is largely inoculated against inflation, since the main factor behind inflation is the easy printing of money (although there are other factors). Inflation within the Islamic state will be a rare occurrence as businesses and individuals acquire wealth; their wealth is not devalued. As there is continuing growth with increasing demand and improving technologies, the unlikely case of inflation or devaluation of money could only be entertained if there is an abnormal increase in gold supply, which is unlikely. Even in such a case the distributive obligations of the state and improving standards of living would produce commensurate growth to stabilise such unlikely outbursts in supply. The health of the economy is not based on the confidence of growth in wealth, rather the ability of people to live a good standard of living. Growth in the Islamic economy is not viewed in terms of mere increase in GDP compared to previous years, but is a more holistic and profound measure of how transactions in society have improved in terms of quantity, quality and equity. Hence quantitative GDP growth that is sought by nations today which leads to a declining way of life, is not seen as growth, but rather as a decline. To grow is a natural instinct in people; and enhancing it is a problem of science, which is never in short supply. However enabling sustainable macro growth without booms and busts is a problem for the economic system, which can only be addressed by Islam.
尽管许多经济体目前正面临商品和服务价格的通货紧缩,但在未来的几个月乃至几年里,一波巨大的货币膨胀正在积聚。在世界各国央行几乎无法受到约束的情况下,严格执行伊斯兰制度中实行的金属货币本位,是避免这种局面的唯一途径。
Although many economies are now facing price deflation for goods and services, a massive wave of monetary inflation is being stored up for coming months and years. The strict application of the metallic money standard as practiced in the Islamic system is the only way to avoid this when there is such little control over the central bankers of the world.