4.1 Bomu la Muda la Kifedha - Mgogoro wa Kifedha Duniani | Quran Course

4.1 Bomu la Muda la Kifedha - Mgogoro wa Kifedha Duniani | Quran Course

Kuna makubaliano kidogo kuhusu kiwango cha mwisho cha hasara zitakazobebwa ndani ya mfumo wa fedha. Shirika la Fedha la Kimataifa (IMF) awali lilikadiria hasara ya takriban dola trilioni 1, lakini sasa linasema kiasi hicho kitakuwa kidogo mno. Nouriel Roubini amekadiria hasara ya mwisho kuwa zaidi ya dola trilioni 2, na wengine wanazungumzia zaidi ya dola trilioni 5. Hata punguzo dogo la asilimia kwenye rundo la derivatives lenye thamani ya dola trilioni 500 hadi 1,000 linaweza kufanya takwimu hizi kubwa zionekane ndogo. Hatari ya wenzi wa kibiashara (counterparty risk) iliyo ndani ya mfumo wa benki ni kubwa zaidi kuliko kiasi ambacho hata serikali kubwa zaidi zikishirikiana zingeweza kukifidia. Pato la Taifa la Marekani ni dola trilioni 14, na Marekani tayari ni nchi yenye deni kubwa zaidi duniani, ikiwa na nakisi ya serikali ya zaidi ya dola trilioni 10. Nakisi ya bajeti yake ya mwaka ujao inaweza kuongezeka hadi zaidi ya dola trilioni 1, hasa kutokana na kifurushi cha kuchochea uchumi ambacho Rais mpya Barack Obama anaahidi. Pia kuna wasiwasi unaoongezeka kuhusu ukosefu wa uwazi katika hatua za serikali. Bloomberg liliripoti tarehe 10 Novemba: "Benki Kuu ya Marekani (Federal Reserve) inakataa kutaja walionufaika na takriban dola trilioni 2 za mikopo ya dharura iliyotolewa kwa fedha za walipa kodi wa Marekani, wala mali zenye matatizo ambazo benki kuu hiyo inakubali kama dhamana. Licha ya ahadi zilizotolewa kwa Bunge kuhusu uwazi katika mpango wa uokoaji wa dola bilioni 700 wa mfumo wa benki. Miezi miwili baadaye, Fed inakopesha zaidi ya hapo katika programu tofauti za uokoaji ambazo hazikuhitaji idhini ya Bunge. Wamarekani hawana wazo lolote fedha hizo zinakwenda wapi au ni dhamana zipi benki zinaweka kama malipo."4

There is little consensus on the ultimate scale of losses to be absorbed within the Financial system. The IMF originally estimated about $1 trillion in losses and now says that will be too low. Nouriel Roubini has estimated eventual losses of over $2 trillion and others talk of more than $5 trillion. Even a small percentage write down on the 500 to 1,000 trillion derivatives mountain could make these large figures look tiny. The counterparty risk carried within the banking system is far greater than that which can be covered by even the largest governments acting together. US GDP is $14 trillion, and the US is already the greatest debtor nation with a more than $10 trillion government deficit, and its budget deficit in the coming year may balloon to more than $1 trillion, particularly with the stimulus package that the new President Barack Obama is promising. There is also growing disquiet over the lack of transparency in the governments actions. Bloomberg reported on the 10th of November, “The Federal Reserve is refusing to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers or the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral. Despite assurances given to Congress over transparency in the $700 billion bailout of the banking system. Two months later the Fed is lending far more than that in separate rescue programs that didn’t require approval by Congress, Americans have no idea where the money is going or what securities the banks are pledging in return4".

Benki zinatumia fedha hizo kukarabati na kupunguza ukubwa wa mizania zao, yaani kufuta madeni yao mabaya.

The banks are using the cash to repair and shrink their balance sheets – ie write off their bad debts.

Kuna maswali makubwa kuhusu jinsi mipango ya uokoaji itakavyokuwa na ufanisi, na ni lini mtikisiko wa mikopo utakapoisha, kwani benki zinapunguza madeni yake na kufuta hasara zake.

So there are serious questions over how effective the bailout schemes will be and how soon the credit crunch will be over as banks deleverage and write off their losses.

Ijmāʿ ya kujitolea kufanya kila kinachohitajika ili kuiokoa uchumi kutokana na kuporomoka kabisa na kufungwa kwa taasisi kuu za kifedha za Marekani haina shaka yoyote. Ni vigumu zaidi kujua fedha hizi zitatoka wapi. Serikali ya Marekani inakabiliwa na uchaguzi wa: kupunguza kwa kiasi kikubwa matumizi katika miradi ya kijamii, afya na ustawi wa jamii, kuongeza kodi kwa kiwango kikubwa, kukopa zaidi kutoka nje ya nchi, au kuchapisha pesa moja kwa moja. Chaguo mbili za kwanza, yaani kupunguza matumizi na kuongeza kodi, si endelevu na haziwezi kupata trilioni zinazohitajika. Kwa hiyo fedha hizo zitatoka ama kwenye mikopo ya kigeni, ikiwemo ununuzi wa hati za hazina za Marekani (US Treasury bills), au kwa kuchapisha pesa, jambo ambalo litashusha thamani ya sarafu na kusababisha kupanda kwa mfumuko wa bei. Haijulikani kama serikali za nje zitaendelea kuifadhili Marekani, hasa kwa kuwa mlaji wa Marekani atapunguza kasi ya kununua bidhaa za China na Japan. Serikali ya China, ambayo tayari inashikilia dola bilioni 1,800 za bondi za Marekani, pia haiwezekani kutaka kuongeza zaidi umiliki wake wa sarafu ambayo inaweza kuingia katika kuanguka kabisa.

The commitment to do whatever is necessary to save the economy from absolute collapse and the winding up of the major financial institutions of the US is unquestioned. Where this money would come from is less certain. The US government is faced with the choice of: massively curtailing expenditure on social, health and welfare projects, raising taxes dramatically, increasing borrowing from overseas, or literally printing the money. As the first two options of cutting spending and raising taxes is not tenable and cannot raise the necessary trillions needed, the money will come from either foreign loans including the holding of US Treasury bills or via printing money which will effectively devalue the currency and cause a hike in inflation. It is questionable as to whether foreign governments will continue to fund the US particularly as the US consumer will slow down in its purchase of Chinese and Japanese goods. The Chinese government which already holds $1.8 Trillion in US bonds is also unlikely to want to further increase its holdings of a currency which could go into meltdown.

Ikiwa serikali ya Marekani itashindwa kukusanya fedha hizi kutoka vyanzo vya nje, basi hakuna njia mbadala isipokuwa kuongeza kwa kiasi kikubwa ugavi wa fedha wa Marekani, jambo ambalo litasababisha mfumuko wa bei au mfumuko wa bei uliokithiri. Serikali zinaponunua madeni mabaya ya benki, serikali zenyewe zinakuwa miradi hatarishi zaidi kwa uwekezaji. Serikali zinakabiliwa na hatari ya kushindwa kulipa madeni. Hatari hii ni kubwa zaidi sasa kuliko mwanzoni mwa mgogoro, kwani uchumi wa nchi za Magharibi unasinyaa kwa kasi huku mapato ya kodi yakipungua na matumizi ya umma yakiongezeka. Hivyo, mgogoro wa kifedha huleta mgogoro wa kiuchumi, ambao huzaa mgogoro wa kisiasa.

If the US government fails in extracting this money from foreign sources then there is no alternative but for a massive increase in the US money supply which will be inflationary or hyperinflationary. With Governments buying up bank’s bad debts Governments themselves become riskier propositions for investment. Governments are vulnerable to defaults. The risk of this is greater now then at the start of the crisis as Western economies rapidly contract with tax revenues falling and public spending on the rise. Thus a financial crisis precipitates an economic crisis leading to a political crisis.