4.4 Mfumo wa Kufanikiwa au wa Kipuuzi
4.4 Prosperous Or Preposterous System
Kuhusu ikiwa mfumo unaotawala ni wa ustawi au wa upuuzi, inafaa kumnukuu Kennedy: "Pesa haisaidii tu kubadilishana bidhaa na huduma, bali pia inaweza kuzuia kubadilishana bidhaa na huduma kwa kubaki mikononi mwa wale walio na zaidi ya wanavyohitaji. Hivyo inaunda kituo binafsi cha ushuru ambapo wale walio na kidogo kuliko wanachohitaji hulipa ada kwa wale walio na pesa zaidi ya wanazohitaji. Hii kwa vyovyote si 'mpango wa haki'. Kwa kweli, mifumo yetu ya sasa ya fedha inaweza kuitwa 'isiyo ya kikatiba' katika mataifa mengi ya kidemokrasia" 13.
As for whether the prevailing model is prosperous or preposterous, it is apt to quote Kennedy: “Money does not only help the exchange of goods and services but can also hinder the exchange of goods and services by being kept in the hands of those who have more than they need. Thus it creates a private tollgate where those who have less than they need pay a fee to those who have more money than they need. This is by no means a “fair deal”. In fact, our present monetary systems could be termed “unconstitutional” in most democratic nations” 13.
Serikali hugharamia matumizi yake na kukuza ukuaji wa mashirika makubwa (jambo ambalo mara chache huwafikia watu wa kawaida) kwa njia kadhaa. Hasara inayotokana na hayo hufunikwa kwa mfumo tata wa kodi unaogusa karibu kila nyanja ya maisha: kodi ya mapato, kodi za huduma za kijamii na kodi zilizofichika, mfumuko wa bei, misaada ya dharura kwa makampuni yaliyokaribia kufilisika, ruzuku, kupunguzwa kwa malipo ya pensheni na ustawi wa jamii, na juhudi za kuondoa vikwazo vya biashara katika nchi zinazoendelea. Haishangazi kwamba mfumo wa kiuchumi wa kibepari umejaa migogoro, vita na mapinduzi.
The government covers its expenditure and promotes growth of the corporations (which rarely trickles down to the common man) by several means. The resulting bust is covered by a complex set of taxes which covers almost every aspect of life: income taxes, utility taxes and stealth taxes, inflation, bail outs, subsidies, pension and welfare cuts and not to mention efforts to liberalise trade in developing countries. It is not surprising that the capitalist economic system is punctuated with crises, wars and revolutions.
Ubunifu wa kiuchumi hautafuatiwa kila mara na kipindi cha ustawi baada ya kipindi cha kuporomoka. Tukichukua Magharibi na misukosuko ya zamani kama mfano, tunaona sehemu tu ya hadithi nzima. Mgogoro wa ukubwa wa sasa umetosha kwa wachambuzi wengi wa Magharibi kujadili hali za kiapokaliptiki kwa mfumo wa uchumi wa kibepari. Kosa lijalo bila shaka lingekuwa kubwa zaidi, na kusubiri pigo hilo la kuangamiza ni upumbavu dhahiri. Matatizo ya Magharibi mara nyingi husafirishwa kupitia miradi ya kimataifa, ambapo nchi nyingine ndizo hubeba mzigo mkubwa. Hata bila kutumia mifano ya aina hiyo, mgogoro wa Asia wa mwaka 1997 ni mfano wazi wa kuporomoka kusikofuatiwa na kipindi cha ustawi. Indonesia, ambayo wakati mmoja ilikuwa "joka la kiuchumi" (neno la kuzitaja nchi zenye uchumi unaokua kwa kasi zaidi katika miaka ya 1990), bado inayumbayumba ikiwa na deni la nje la dola bilioni 113. Malaysia iliingilia kati kuzuia kuporomoka huko, na imejitokeza kuwa nchi ya kati yenye mafanikio ya kiasi, lakini imeshutumiwa kwa kuonekana kama tishio kwa ubepari na soko huria.
Booms will not always follow busts. Taking the west and the past crises as an example, only reveals part of the story. A crisis of the current magnitude has sufficed for many western commentators to discuss apocalyptic scenarios for the capitalist economic system. A future mistake would certainly be more severe; awaiting such a fatal blow is patently foolish. Western problems are often exported via global ventures, where other countries absorb the brunt. Even without resorting to such examples, the 1997 Asian crisis stands as a clear example of a bust gone without a subsequent boom. Once a tiger economy (a term for the fastest growing economies in the 1990s) Indonesia continues to reel with $113bn of external debt. Malaysia intervened to prevent the bust and has emerged as a relatively successful middle power, only to be criticised as a threat to capitalism and the free market14.
Marekani inakabiliwa na nakisi kubwa za kutisha, zinazozidi theluthi mbili ya Pato lake la Taifa (GDP). Deni la Shirikisho linazidi dola trilioni 10, na likijumuishwa na majukumu ambayo hayajafadhiliwa, jumla hufikia karibu dola trilioni 60. Wamiliki wa nje wa hati fungani za hazina ya Marekani wanazidi dola trilioni 2.6. Kuna upungufu wa utayari wa wawekezaji wa kigeni kutokana na kuporomoka kwa dola kwa muda mrefu, na deni lililopo linamilikiwa hasa na benki kuu za Japan, China, na nchi zinazosafirisha mafuta. Marekani pia inategemea zaidi masoko ya nje yanayopungua kwa bidhaa zake, kutokana na bidhaa za kigeni za ushindani wa bei na ushindani mkali nje ya nchi. Hata nchi dhaifu kama Kuwait zinajiondoa kwenye kufungamanisha sarafu yao na dola na zinachagua kikapu cha sarafu za kimataifa. Uokoaji wa benki kubwa zaidi unaongeza deni zaidi kwenye mfumo ulio kwenye ukingo wa hatari. Mbali na mfumo wake wa kifedha usio imara kwa asili, mabadiliko yoyote katika uchumi wa kisiasa wa dunia yanaweza kuwa na athari kubwa kwa afya ya dola. Mfumo wa kibepari unaonekana kutoweza kurekebishwa, kwani ungelazimika kujiharibu wenyewe ili kufanya hivyo.
The US displays obscene deficits of over 2/3 of its GDP (over $10 trillion of Federal debt and when unfunded obligations are included this raises it to around $60 trillion). Foreign owners of US treasury securities exceed $2.6 trillion. There is declining willingness of foreign investors due to the long term falling dollar, and the existing debt is owned in particular by Japanese, Chinese, and oil exporting central banks. The US faces increased dependency on diminishing export markets for its products due to competitive foreign imports and fierce competition overseas. Even weak countries such as Kuwait are pulling out of the dollar peg and opting for a basket of international currencies. The bailouts of the largest banks are loading further debt into a system teetering on the edge. In addition to its inherently unstable financial system, any changes in the global political economy can have serious implications for the health of the state. The capitalist system appears to be non-correctable, as it would need to undermine itself to do it.
13 Kennedy M, 1995, Interest and Inflation Free Money, Seva International, Munich.
13 Kennedy M, 1995, Interest and Inflation Free Money, Seva International, Munich.
14 Soros G, 1998, Capitalism’s last chance, Foreign Policy, December - Winter issue.
14 Soros G, 1998, Capitalism’s last chance, Foreign Policy, December - Winter issue.