5.7 Mfumuko wa Bei dhidi ya Dhahabu/Fedha
5.7 Inflation Versus Gold/silver
Kwa karne nyingi wanadamu wametumia njia ya kubadilishana thamani ili kurahisisha biashara na utoaji wa huduma katika jamii. Ili kuhakikisha haki na kuaminiana katika biashara, ilikuwa muhimu sana kwamba kile kilichochaguliwa kuwa njia ya kubadilishana thamani kiwe thabiti na chenye thamani halisi. Maagizo ya Qur'ani yamelifanya wazi kupitia marejeo mengi kwamba jamii ya Kiislamu inapaswa kufuata kiwango cha sarafu mbili za chuma, yaani dhahabu na fedha. Ingawa Shari'ah haikukataza kumiliki sarafu nyingine (zisizo za dhahabu wala fedha), dola ya Kiislamu haiwezi wala haitafuata kiwango kingine chochote cha sarafu, na mifumo ya fiat, ambapo sarafu hazina mali yoyote inayoziunga mkono, inakataliwa kabisa. Uislamu umeweka kanuni zote zinazohusiana na sarafu, zikiunganishwa na dhahabu na fedha kama njia ya kubadilishana thamani kwa bidhaa na huduma zote, na kama sarafu ya kubadilishana, iwe ni sarafu zilizotengenezwa au madini ghafi. Dhahabu na fedha zote mbili zinafaa sana kuwa njia za kubadilishana thamani kwa sababu zina thamani ya asili (ikiwa ni pamoja na vito na matumizi ya viwandani), zinapatikana kwa wingi, haziwezi kutawaliwa (kumilikiwa kwa ukiritimba), na zina ugavi wa mara kwa mara lakini unaoongezeka ili kukidhi mahitaji ya uchumi unaokua. Ongezeko la kila mwaka la ugavi wa dhahabu, kwa mfano, ni asilimia 2.
For centuries mankind has used a medium of exchange to facilitate trade and the provision of services in society. To ensure fairness and confidence in trade it has been vital that there be stability and real value in that which was chosen to be the medium of exchange. Quranic injunction has made it clear via many references that the Islamic society operate a bi-metallic currency standard of gold and silver. Whilst the Shariah did not forbid the ownership of other (non gold or silver) currencies, the Islamic state cannot and will not operate any other currency standard, and the fiat based systems where currencies are not backed by any assets at all is completely shunned. Islam made all the rules linked to currency, linked to gold and silver in their capacity as a medium of exchange for all goods and services and as currency for exchange, both as coins and as ore. Gold and silver are both ideal to act as mediums of exchange because they have intrinsic value (including jewellery and industrial use) are widely available, cannot be dominated (monopolised) and there is a regular, yet growing supply of them to meet the needs of growing economies. The annual increase in gold supply for example is 2%.
Mkataba wa Bretton Woods mwaka 1944 ulianzisha kwamba uchumi mkuu wa dunia ungefanya kazi kwa mfumo wa kubadilishana wa kudumu, ambapo dhahabu ilipangwa kuwa dola 35 kwa wakia, na sarafu nyingine zilipangwa kulingana na dola (na hivyo pia dhahabu). Mfumo huu ulifanya kazi kwa ufanisi hadi Richard Nixon alipoiondoa Marekani kwenye kiwango cha dhahabu kwa upande mmoja mwezi Agosti 1971, na kuanza kutumia sarafu ya fiat inayoelea huru bila dhamana yoyote ya dhahabu. Baada ya uamuzi huo, kiasi cha dola za Marekani kilichosambazwa duniani kilipanuka sana, na mfumuko wa bei wa kila mwaka uliongezeka mara tatu, kutoka kiwango cha kihistoria cha asilimia 2 katika karne hiyo hadi wastani wa zaidi ya asilimia 6, na kufikia kilele cha zaidi ya asilimia 20 katika baadhi ya nchi.
The Breton Woods agreement in 1944 established that the main economies of the world would operate on a fixed exchange basis with gold fixed at $35 per ounce, and other currencies fixed against the dollar (and therefore gold). This system operated effectively until Richard Nixon unilaterally took the US off the gold standard in August 1971 and utilised a free floating fiat currency with no backing of gold whatsoever. Following this decision, the supply of US dollars globally ballooned and annual inflation trebled from 2% historically that century to an average of more than 6% and peaking at more that 20% in some countries.
Pesa yenyewe si utajiri, bali ni kipimo fulani tu cha utajiri, ambacho hutegemea uimara wa udhibiti wa kiasi cha pesa. Benki kuu zinapojaza masoko ya fedha kwa pesa kwa kuchapisha zaidi (kuongeza ukwasi), hilo halileti utajiri zaidi; linaweza kuharakisha miamala ya kifedha, lakini hilo laweza kuunda au kuharibu utajiri kutegemea baadhi ya mambo yaliyotajwa, kwa mfano kutokana na mfumuko wa bei.
Money itself is not wealth, merely one particular measuring unit of wealth, which is dependent upon the soundness of the control over the volume of money. When central banks flood financial markets with money by printing more (increasing liquidity), this does not add wealth; it can accelerate financial transactions but this can create or destroy wealth depending on certain factors as mentioned, for example due to inflation.
Katika uchumi halisi, utajiri huundwa kwa kutengenezwa kwa mali ngumu zenye tija kama vile kilimo, bidhaa zilizotengenezwa viwandani n.k., ambazo kisha huuzwa kwa faida. Utajiri huongezeka kwa kuongeza uzalishaji (yaani, unazalisha bidhaa na huduma zaidi na kuziuza kwa faida).
In the real economy, wealth is created by the creation of productive hard assets such as agriculture, manufactured products etc, which are then sold for a profit. Wealth is increased by increasing production (i.e. you produce more goods and services and sell them for a profit).
Ukiweka pesa nyingi kwenye masoko ya fedha, unasababisha mfumuko wa bei. Hii ni kwa sababu kuna pesa nyingi zinazozunguka kuwania idadi ile ile ya bidhaa, jambo linalopunguza thamani ya pesa na kumaanisha kwamba unahitaji kubadilisha pesa nyingi zaidi kupata bidhaa zile zile baada ya muda. Kwamba chupa ya Coca-Cola leo inagharimu 100% zaidi ya ilivyogharimu miaka 10 iliyopita, ni hasa kwa sababu thamani ya pesa imeshuka. Wakati huo huo, mali kama majengo, ardhi au dhahabu hazishuki thamani, kwa sababu zinabaki na thamani yake ya asili wakati wote. Lakini kwa kuwa thamani ya pesa za karatasi zisizo na msingi wa bidhaa inashuka, matokeo halisi ni kwamba uwezo wa ununuzi wa pesa (uwezo wa pesa kununua bidhaa na huduma) unapungua, na hivyo kwa maana halisi utajiri unapungua, kwa sababu pesa inashuka thamani ikilinganishwa na mali halisi thabiti. Leo tumeshuhudia kwamba uwezo wa watu kuweka akiba umepungua kadri muda unavyokwenda, licha ya ukweli kwamba tunapata mapato makubwa kuliko wakati wowote ule. Uwezo wa ununuzi wa pesa umepungua kwa maana halisi, kwa kuwa thamani ya mali kwa ujumla inabaki ile ile, lakini kiasi cha pesa kinachohitajika kununua mali halisi (ardhi, majengo, bidhaa) kinaongezeka. Kwa ujumla, watu wa leo wanaweka akiba kidogo sana ukilinganisha na watu wa miongo miwili iliyopita.
If you flood financial markets with money you create inflation. This is because there is more money chasing around the same number of goods, which devalues money and means you have to exchange more money for the same goods over a period of time. That a bottle of coke today costs 100% more than it did 10 years ago, is primarily because the value of money has been devalued. At the same time, assets such as property, land, or gold do not devalue as they keep the same intrinsic value at all times, but since the value of paper fiat money is falling, the net effect is that the purchasing power (ability of money to buy goods and services) is lowered, and hence in real terms wealth is actually falling, because money is being devalued, compared to real hard assets. Today we have witnessed that people’s ability to save has been diminished over time, despite the fact that we are earning more than ever. The purchasing power of money has declined in real terms as the value of assets generally remains the same, but the amount of money required to buy hard assets (land, property, goods) is increasing. In general terms people today save very little compared to people only two decades ago.
Uislamu unaweka msisitizo juu ya mali, na unalenga kulinda mali za watu kwa kuhakikisha kwamba sera zake hazishushi thamani ya fedha. Mfumo wa Kiislamu hauruhusu kuchapisha fedha kama mtu anavyopenda, kwani sarafu yake yote lazima iwe imeungwa mkono kwa asilimia 100 na akiba ya dhahabu au fedha. Hii ina maana kwamba sarafu yenyewe ina thamani kulingana na mali zote. Kwa hiyo thamani ya ardhi kwa mlaji itabaki daima ikilingana na thamani ya dhahabu. Hali hii huleta utulivu na kujenga imani katika thamani ya sarafu ya Dola.
Islam put the emphasis on wealth and seeks to guard people’s wealth by ensuring that its policies do not devalue money. The Islamic system does not allow the printing of money as it pleases since all its currency must be 100% backed by gold or silver reserves. This means that the currency itself has a value relative to all assets. So this means that the value to the consumer of land will always remain in proportion to the value of gold. This creates stability and confidence in the value of the State’s currency.
Zaidi ya hayo, kwa kuwa dola ya Kiislamu haichapishi fedha kwa sababu haiwezi kuchapisha dhahabu zaidi, hakutakuwa na kiasi kinachoongezeka cha fedha kinachofukuzia idadi ile ile ya bidhaa; hivyo mfumo wa Kiislamu umekingwa kwa kiasi kikubwa dhidi ya mfumuko wa bei, kwa kuwa chanzo kikuu cha mfumuko wa bei ni uchapishaji rahisi wa fedha (ingawa zipo sababu nyingine). Mfumuko wa bei ndani ya dola ya Kiislamu utakuwa jambo adimu kadiri biashara na watu binafsi wanavyopata mali; mali yao haipotezi thamani. Kwa kuwa kuna ukuaji endelevu pamoja na ongezeko la mahitaji na maendeleo ya teknolojia, kisa kisicho cha kawaida cha mfumuko wa bei au kushuka kwa thamani ya fedha kinaweza kufikiriwa tu iwapo kutatokea ongezeko lisilo la kawaida la usambazaji wa dhahabu, jambo lisilowezekana. Hata katika hali kama hiyo, wajibu wa dola wa kugawa mali na uboreshaji wa viwango vya maisha ungezalisha ukuaji unaolingana ili kutuliza milipuko hiyo isiyowezekana ya usambazaji. Afya ya uchumi haitegemei imani ya ukuaji wa utajiri, bali uwezo wa watu kuishi maisha yenye viwango vizuri. Ukuaji wa uchumi wa Kiislamu hauangaliwi kwa mtazamo wa ongezeko tu la Pato la Taifa (GDP) ikilinganishwa na miaka iliyopita, bali ni kipimo pana na cha kina zaidi cha jinsi miamala katika jamii ilivyoboreka kwa kiasi, ubora na haki. Hivyo ukuaji wa kiidadi wa GDP unaotafutwa na mataifa leo, unaosababisha kupungua kwa ubora wa maisha, hauonekani kuwa ukuaji, bali ni kupungua. Kukua ni silika ya asili kwa watu; na kuiimarisha ni suala la sayansi, ambalo halikosekani kamwe. Hata hivyo, kuwezesha ukuaji mkubwa endelevu bila kupanda na kushuka kwa kasi (booms and busts) ni tatizo kwa mfumo wa kiuchumi, ambalo linaweza kushughulikiwa tu na Uislamu.
Furthermore, since the Islamic state does not print money because it cannot print more gold, there will not be an increasing amount of money chasing the same number of goods; hence the Islamic system is largely inoculated against inflation, since the main factor behind inflation is the easy printing of money (although there are other factors). Inflation within the Islamic state will be a rare occurrence as businesses and individuals acquire wealth; their wealth is not devalued. As there is continuing growth with increasing demand and improving technologies, the unlikely case of inflation or devaluation of money could only be entertained if there is an abnormal increase in gold supply, which is unlikely. Even in such a case the distributive obligations of the state and improving standards of living would produce commensurate growth to stabilise such unlikely outbursts in supply. The health of the economy is not based on the confidence of growth in wealth, rather the ability of people to live a good standard of living. Growth in the Islamic economy is not viewed in terms of mere increase in GDP compared to previous years, but is a more holistic and profound measure of how transactions in society have improved in terms of quantity, quality and equity. Hence quantitative GDP growth that is sought by nations today which leads to a declining way of life, is not seen as growth, but rather as a decline. To grow is a natural instinct in people; and enhancing it is a problem of science, which is never in short supply. However enabling sustainable macro growth without booms and busts is a problem for the economic system, which can only be addressed by Islam.
Ingawa uchumi mwingi sasa unakabiliwa na kushuka kwa bei za bidhaa na huduma, wimbi kubwa la mfumuko wa fedha linahifadhiwa kwa miezi na miaka ijayo. Utumiaji mkali wa kiwango cha fedha za chuma kama kinavyotekelezwa katika mfumo wa Kiislamu ndiyo njia pekee ya kuepuka hili, wakati benki kuu za dunia zina udhibiti mdogo sana.
Although many economies are now facing price deflation for goods and services, a massive wave of monetary inflation is being stored up for coming months and years. The strict application of the metallic money standard as practiced in the Islamic system is the only way to avoid this when there is such little control over the central bankers of the world.