Bir yil boshidagi XX asrda Germaniya va Buyuk Britaniya o‘rtasidagi global hukmronlik uchun kurash ularni o‘zlarining og‘ir, ko‘mirda ishlaydigan harbiy mashinalarini quvvatlantirish uchun muqobil yoqilg‘ilarni izlashga majbur qildi.

The struggle for global supremacy between Germany and Britain at the beginning of the 20th century drove them to search for alternative fuels to power their bulky coal based war machines.

20-asrning boshlarida Yaqin Sharqda neft konlarining topilishi bir asr davomida yangi texnologiyalarni rivojlantirdi, jamiyat va iste'molning yangi shakllarini yaratdi hamda dunyodagi kuchlar muvozanatini o'zgartirdi.

The discovery of oil fields in the Middle East in the early 20th century spurred a century of new technologies, created new patterns of society and consumption and changed the global balance of power.

Qazib olinadigan yoqilg'ilar o'z tabiatiga ko'ra cheklangan bo'lib, oxir-oqibat kamayib boradi. 20-asrning ko'p qismida bu masala muhokama qilinmas edi, chunki dunyo neftining aksariyati hali topilmagan edi. Qiruvchi samolyotlar, tanklar va avtomobillar kabi texnologiyalarning barchasi neftda ishlashga mo'ljallangan. Agar neft tugab borayotgan bo'lsa, neft narxlarining keskin oshishidan tashqari, bunday texnologiyalar ham foydasiz bo'lib qolar edi.

Fossil fuels by their nature are limited and will eventually diminish. For most of the 20th century this was never a discussion as most of the world’s oil was still undiscovered. With technologies such as the fighter jet, tanks and automobiles all designed to run on oil, if oil is drying up then apart from oil prices exploding, such technologies would also become redundant.

"Peak oil" 1970-yillarda birinchi marta taklif qilingan; bu dunyodagi ma'lum neft zaxiralarining yarmi qazib olingan nuqtani hisoblab chiqadigan nazariyadir.

‘Peak oil’ was first introduced in the 1970’s; it is a theory which calculates the point where half of the worlds known oil reserves have been pumped.

Kelajakdagi neft ishlab chiqarishni prognoz qilish uchun uchta muhim ko'rsatkich kerak. Birinchidan, bugungi kunga qadar qancha neft qazib olinganligi haqidagi hisob, ya'ni kumulyativ ishlab chiqarish. Ikkinchidan, zaxiralar bahosi: ma'lum konlardan kompaniyalar ularni tashlab ketishdan oldin qancha neft chiqarib olishi mumkinligi. Nihoyat, hali kashf etilmagan va o'zlashtirilmagan an'anaviy neftning miqdorini ilmiy asoslangan taxmin bilan belgilash kerak. Ularning yig'indisi yakuniy qazib olish hajmini, ya'ni ishlab chiqarish o'n yillar o'tib to'xtaganida qazib olingan barrellarning umumiy sonini beradi.

There are three vital numbers that are needed to project future oil production. Firstly, the tally of how much oil has been extracted to date, a figure known as the cumulative production. The second is an estimate of reserves; the amount that companies can pump out of known fields before having to abandon them. Finally, one must make an educated guess at the quantity of conventional oil that remains to be discovered and exploited. Together they add up to the ultimate recovery i.e. the total number of barrels that will have been extracted when production ceases many decades from now.

Neft cho'qqi sanalarini tushunishning eng oson yo'li — neft ishlab chiqarish neft konlarini topishdan oshib ketganmi-yo'qmi, shuni ko'rishdir. Bunga eng kuchli dalil shuki, neft konlarining topilishi aslida 1960-yillarda cho'qqiga chiqqan. Eng so'nggi yirik neft koni 1985-yilda Meksikada topilgan, bugungi neft yetkazib beruvchilarning aksariyatida esa 1950-yillarda topilgan, allaqachon yetilgan konlar mavjud. Hozir dunyo topilayotgan neftdan to'rt baravar ko'p neft iste'mol qilmoqda. Neft kompaniyalari yangi neft zaxiralarini qidirishga ulkan mablag' sarflamoqda, ammo topilayotgan konlar tobora kichrayib bormoqda va shuning uchun kamroq neft beradi. Kashfiyotlar kamayib borayotgan bir sharoitda neftning hozirgi ishlab chiqarilishi "qora oltin"ning so'nggi zaxiralarini tugatmoqda.

The easiest way to comprehend an understanding of peaking dates is to see if production of oil has outstripped oil discoveries. The most damning evidence for this is that oil discoveries actually peaked in the 1960’s. The most recent large oil field was discovered in Mexico in 1985, while the majority of today’s producers have mature fields that were discovered in the 1950’s. The world now consumes four times the quantity of oil as is found. The oil companies are spending a fortune on trying to find new oil reserves, but the ones that they find are getting smaller and smaller, and therefore produce less oil. With diminishing discoveries the current production of oil is depleting the last reserves of the black gold.

Ba'zi haddan tashqari optimistik bashoratlar cho'qqi sanalarini 2060-yilgacha beradi, ammo global neft ishlab chiqarish qachon cho'qqisiga chiqishi haqidagi eng ishonchli taxminlar hozirgi vaqtdan 2012-yilgacha bo'lgan oraliqda turlicha. Agar jahon miqyosida ishlab chiqarish tez orada kamaya boshlashi kerak bo'lsa, unda allaqachon o'z cho'qqisiga chiqqan yoki unga yaqinlashib qolgan davlatlarni ko'rishimiz kerak. Eng yirik yetti neft ishlab chiqaruvchidan oltitasi pasayish bosqichida yoki ishlab chiqarish cho'qqisiga yaqin turibdi. AQSh 1971-yilda cho'qqiga chiqqan, Norvegiya 2001-yilda, Buyuk Britaniya esa 1998-yilda. Rossiya, Meksika va Xitoy esa 2008-yilda cho'qqiga chiqishi prognoz qilinmoqda. Saudiya Arabistoni ham 2005-yilda cho'qqiga chiqqan bo'lishi mumkin. Eng yirik yettitadan ishlab chiqarishni oshirish imkoniyati aniq bo'lgan yagona davlat – Eron.

Some overly optimistic predictions give peaking dates up to the year 2060, but the most reliable estimates for when global oil production will peak vary from between now and 2012. If production is meant to start diminishing worldwide very soon, then we should already see countries that have reached their peaks or are just about to reach their peak. Of the top seven oil producers, six are in decline or near peak production. USA peaked 1971, Norway peaked 2001, and the UK peaked in 1998. Russia, Mexico and China are forecast to peak in 2008. It is also possible that Saudi Arabia peaked in 2005. The only one of the top seven producers that has clear capability to increase production is Iran.

Erta cho'qqi bahsini qo'llab-quvvatlovchi boshqa bir qator omillar mavjud. Yirik neft kompaniyalari (masalan, Shell) zaxiralarni almashtirish va avvalgi zaxira haddan tashqari baholarini qoplash bilan qiynalmoqda.

There are a number of other factors that support the early peak argument. Major oil companies (e.g. Shell) are finding it difficult to replace reserves and to backfill previous reserve over-estimates.

Neft sanoatining konsolidatsiyasi mavjud zaxiralarni birlashtirish orqali zaxiralar tanqisligini yashirmoqda. BP kabi neft kompaniyalari zaxiralarni sof qidiruv yo‘li bilan emas, balki eski konlardagi (masalan, Rossiyadagi) ishlab chiqarish bitimlari orqali almashtirishga o‘tdi. Qidiruvga qilinadigan investitsiyalar kamayib bormoqda. Saudiya Arabistonining yirik neft konlari holati bo‘yicha texnik ma’lumotlar ularning yuqori darajada sarflanganidan dalolat beradi. AQShning Yaqin Sharq, Afg‘oniston, MDH, Hindiston, Xitoy va Osiyo davlatlariga nisbatan tashqi siyosati neft va gaz izlashning jadal ketayotganini ko‘rsatadi.

Oil industry consolidation hides reserve shortages by combining existing reserves. Oil companies such as BP have resorted to replacing reserves through production agreements on old fields (e.g. Russia) rather than pure exploration. Investment in exploration is falling. Technical feedback from the state of major Saudi Arabian oil fields indicates a high level of depletion. US foreign policy visà-vis the Middle East, Afghanistan, CIS, India, China and Asian states indicates frantic scouring for oil and gas.

Aynan shu sabablar tufayli "cho'qqi nefti" (peak oil) tushunchasi asosiy oqimga kirib keldi, va dunyo neft zahiralari tugab bormoqda degan qarash dunyo kuchlari uchun geosiyosiy bosh og'riqqa aylangan. Biroq haqiqatda bu dalil bir qator chuqurroq siyosiy masalalarni yashirib turadi.

It is these reasons that have allowed peak oil to enter the mainstream and the view that the world is running out of oil is considered a geopolitical headache for the world’s powers. However in reality this argument masks a number of deeper political issues.

Dunyoda neft tugab bormoqda, degan gap G‘arbning haddan tashqari ko‘p iste’mol qilishi uchun qulay bahona bo‘lib xizmat qiladi, chunki iste’molni kamaytirish eng katta tabu hisoblanadi. Tobora ko‘proq davlatlar kamayib borayotgan neft zaxirasi uchun talashayotgani G‘arbni fosh qildi. G‘arb dunyosi 21-asrning eng muhim resursining 50 foizini iste’mol qiladi, ammo uning atigi to‘rtdan birini ishlab chiqaradi. Energetika inqirozini keltirib chiqarayotgan narsa neftning tugab borishi emas, balki haddan tashqari ko‘p iste’mol qilinishidir.

The world is running out of oil is a convenient excuse for the West’s over consumption, since to reduce consumption is considered the ultimate taboo. As more and more nations scramble for the ever dwindling supply of oil, this has exposed the West. The Western world consumes 50% of the 21st century’s most important resource but produced less then a quarter of it. It is over consumption rather than the fact that oil is depleting that is causing the energy crisis.

AQSH atigi 8 foiz jahon neftini ishlab chiqaradi, lekin uning 25 foizini iste'mol qiladi. G'arbning bunday katta iste'moli hech qachon barqaror bo'la olmaydi; chunki G'arb kundalik ehtiyojining asosiy qismini nisbatan kam sonli ulkan konlardan olishga tayangan. Dunyoda o'nlab minglab ishlayotgan konlar bor bo'lsa-da, ulardan atigi 116 tasi kuniga 100 000 barreldan ortiq neft beradi va ular jahon ishlab chiqarishining 50 foizini tashkil etadi. Ulardan bir nechtasidan tashqari hammasi 25 yildan ko'proq vaqt oldin topilgan va aksariyati quvvatining pasayish alomatlarini ko'rsatmoqda. Darhaqiqat, dunyoning eng yirik konlarining ba'zilari — jumladan, Saudiya Arabistonidagi G'avar, Quvaytdagi Burgan, Meksikadagi Kantarell va Rossiyadagi Samotlor — hozir pasayishda yoki pasayishga yaqinlashib qolgan ko'rinadi. Bu ulkan konlarning pasayishi katta ahamiyatga ega. Ularning yo'qotilgan hajmini qoplash minglab kichikroq konlarda hosildorlikni oshirishni talab qiladi, esa bunga yaqin kelajakda erishish mumkinligini ko'rsatadigan hech qanday dalil yo'q.

The US specifically produced only 8% of the world’s oil but consumes 25% of it. Such huge consumption by the West is never sustainable; this is because the West essentially has relied on a relatively small number of mammoth fields for the lion’s share of their daily intake. Though the world possesses tens of thousands of operating fields, only 116 of them produce more than 100,000 barrels per day and they account for 50% of global output. Of these, all but a handful were discovered more than a quarter of a century ago, and most are showing signs of diminished capacity. Indeed, some of the world’s largest fields – including Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, Burgan in Kuwait, Cantarell in Mexico, and Samotlor in Russia – appear to be now in decline or about to become so. The decline of these giant fields matters greatly. Compensating for their lost output will take increased yield at thousands of smaller fields, and there is no evidence that this is even remotely possible.

AQSh iste'moli ortib borayotgani sababli, kamayib borayotgan energiya manbalari uchun raqobat kuchayadi.

As US consumption continues to rise, the competition for dwindling energy sources will intensify.

Bu musulmon yerlarini yanada muhimroq qiladi va Iroqda bo'lgani kabi, qora oltinning barqaror ta'minoti uchun bosib olish oqlangan bo'lishi mumkin. Neft tugab borayotgan bo'lsa-da, bu neft yetarli emasligidan emas, balki G'arbning iste'mol odatlari tufayli sodir bo'lmoqda.

This will make the Muslim lands even more important and as with Iraq, occupation may well be justified for stable supplies of the black gold. Although oil is running out, it is due to Western consumption patterns rather then there merely being too little oil.