2000-yilning arafasida AQSh dunyodagi eng yetakchi kuch edi. Sovet Ittifoqi o‘n yil avval parchalanib ketgach, AQShga boshqa biron davlatdan jiddiy qarshilik deyarli ko‘rsatilmadi va u "to‘liq spektrli hukmronlik"ga erishgan deb hisoblandi. Marksizm va bozor o‘rtasida endi hech qanday jiddiy nizo qolmadi. G‘arb liberal demokratiyasi "insoniyat hukumatining yakuniy shakli"ga aylanib borayotgandek ko‘rindi. Bu esa mag‘rur neokonservatorlarni shunday vaziyat kelajakda ham davom etishini ta’minlashga qaratilgan siyosat ishlab chiqishga undadi. Aynan shu muhit ko‘plab kuzatuvchilarni AQshning raqibsiz ustunligi va yengilmasligini qabul qilishga olib keldi. Biroq o‘n yil o‘tgach, bu fikrlar haqiqatdan juda uzoq edi. Global kuch muvozanati va AQSh tashqi siyosatini sinchkovlik bilan kuzatish AQShning zaiflashib borayotganini ko‘rsatadi.

On the eve of the 21st century the US was the world’s foremost power. With the collapse of the Soviet Union 10 years earlier the US faced very little challenge from any other nation and was considered to have achieved full spectrum dominance. There was no longer any meaningful dispute between Marxism and the market. It looked as though Western liberal democracy was becoming ‘the final form of human government.’ This led to the arrogant Neoconservatives developing policies to ensure such a scenario continued into the foreseeable future. It was this climate that led many observers to accept unrivalled US supremacy and invincibility. However a decade on, this could not be further from the truth. An astute observation of the global balance of power and US foreign policy suggests a faltering US.

Amerika Iroq va Afg'onistondagi ikki ochiq yara tufayli sekin-asta qon yo'qotmoqda, va bu yaralar yumshash belgisini ko'rsatmayapti. Ikkala urush ham hozirgacha Ikkinchi jahon urushidan uzoqroq davom etdi. Tarixdagi eng ilg'or texnologiyaga ega bo'lgan AQSh armiyasi 1960-yillarda ishlab chiqilgan qurollardan foydalanayotgan, tayyorgarliksiz qarshilik guruhlarini mag'lub eta olmadi. Natijada AQSh sharmandalikdan qochish uchun mintaqaviy davlatlarga tayanishga majbur bo'lmoqda. Barqarorlikni saqlash maqsadida AQSh Suriya va Eron yordamini yashirin kanallar orqali oldi. Iroqning janubida barqarorlik aynan Eron orqali o'rnatildi va bu ikki ayatolla - Eron ayatollasi Sistoniy hamda Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution (SCIR) rahbari Abdulaziz al-Hakim orqali erishildi. Abdulaziz al-Hakimning ixtiyorida 10 000 askar bor va u janubiy hududlar uchun federalizmni qat'iyat bilan ilgari surib, to'qqiz viloyatning birlashtirilishiga chaqirmoqda. Hakimning shia ko'pchilik uchun kattaroq avtonomiya haqidagi e'loni AQShning Iroqni tarqatib yuborish rejasi bilan mos keladi. Aynan shu sabab Beyker-Xemilton hisobotida Eron va Suriya bilan muloqot chaqirig'i berilgan edi, chunki janubiy Iroq sadoqatining asosiy markazi aynan Eronda joylashgan.

America is slowly bleeding to death from two open wounds in Iraq and Afghanistan that show no signs of abating. Both wars have now lasted longer than World War 2. The US army, the most technologically advanced in history has been unable to defeat groups of untrained resistance fighters using weapons developed in the 1960’s. As a result the US has to rely on regional nations to avoid embarrassment. The US has enlisted Syrian and Iranian assistance via back door channels to maintain stability. It is through Iran that stability has come to the South of Iraq and this has been achieved through two Ayatollahs from Iran - Ayatollah Sistani and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim the leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution (SCIR). Abdul al-Aziz Hakim has 10,000 soldiers at his disposal and has aggressively pushed for federalism for the southern regions, calling for nine provinces to merge. Hakim’s declaration for greater Shi’ite autonomy coincides with the US plan of the dissolution of Iraq. This was the primary reason the Baker-Hamilton report called for the engagement of Iran and Syria because Iran specifically is the home for Southern Iraqi loyalty.

Aynan Eron Shimoliy va G'arbiy Afg'onistondagi barqarorlikni saqlab turgan, Eron bilan chegaradosh bo'lgan hududlarda Pushtun qarshiligining kengayishiga yo'l qo'ymagan va shu orqali AQShga yordam bergan davlatdir.

It is Iran who has maintained stability in Northern and Western Afghanistan which borders Iran and has prevented the Pushtun resistance from expanding into such areas which has helped the US.

Tehran bu maqsadga bir qator qayta tiklash loyihalarini amalga oshirish orqali erishdi, bu esa NATO'ga qarshilik ko'rsatilayotgan ancha kichik hududda ish olib borish imkonini berdi. Iron Toliblarni ag'darishda hal qiluvchi omil bo'ldi va boshqa infratuzilma loyihalari qatorida yo'llar, elektr uzatish liniyalari va chegara postlarini qurdi. Londondagi Xalqaro strategik tadqiqotlar instituti Mudofaa tahlili bo'limiga rahbarlik qilayotgan polkovnik Kristofer Lenton Eronni Afg'onistonning kelajakdagi qayta tiklanishi va rivojlanishida muhim davlat ekanligini aytdi: «Ular o'tmishda Toliblarga qarshi kurashdagi harakatlari tufayli, shuningdek, Eron xazora aholisi [ular, eroniliklar kabi, shia musulmonlari] orqali u yerda ko'rsata oladigan ta'sir tufayli ham chambarchas bog'langan. Rivojlanish sohasida esa Eron ishtirok etayotgan loyihalar allaqachon mavjud — masalan, Fors ko'rfazidagi Bandar Abbosdan Afg'oniston orqali Markaziy Osiyoga olib boradigan yo'l Afg'onistonning kelajagi uchun juda, juda muhim loyihadir… Afg'onistonni Eron bilan bog'laydigan siyosiy, iqtisodiy va xavfsizlik masalalarining butun ro'yxati bor».

Tehran has achieved this by carrying out a number of reconstruction projects which has allowed NATO to work on a much smaller area of resistance. Iran was a key factor in the overthrow of the Taliban and has built roads, power transmission lines, and border stations, among other infrastructure projects. Colonel Christopher Langton, who heads the Defense Analysis Department at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said Iran is an important country in the future reconstruction and development of Afghanistan, ‘They are being closely linked by efforts against the Taliban in the past, but also because of the influence that Iran can bring there with the Hazara population [who, like Iranians, are Shi'a Muslims]. And in the development sector, there are already projects which Iran is involved in -- for instance, the road from Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf up through Afghanistan to Central Asia is a very, very important project for the future of Afghanistan…There is a whole list of political, economic, and security issues which connect Afghanistan and Iran.

Bu holat AQSh dunyodagi eng nufuzli analitik markazlardan birining rahbari Richard Xassni fikr bildirishga undadi: «AQSh Yaqin Sharqdagi hukmronlik davri tugadi va mintaqa zamonaviy tarixida yangi davr boshlandi. Uni ta'sir uchun raqobatlashadigan yangi ishtirokchilar va yangi kuchlar shakllantiradi va unga tayanish uchun Vashington harbiy qudratdan ko'ra diplomatiyaga ko'proq tayanishi kerak bo'ladi. AQSh o'n yil oldin to'liq hukmronlik qilgan dunyo mintaqalarida ko'plab qiyinchiliklarga duch kelmoqda. Yaqin Sharqda mintaqaviy vakillarning yordamiga muhtoj bo'lishdan tashqari, mintaqa asta-sekin AQSh bahslashmas gegemoniyadan bahramand bo'lgan bir qutbli mintaqadan ko'p qutbli mintaqaga aylanmoqda. AQSh Yaqin Sharq nefti ustidan kirish huquqi uchun Xitoy va Rossiya bilan ko'proq raqobatlashmoqda. AQSh endi mintaqaning "qora oltin"idan eng katta ulushni olish uchun Hindiston va Yaponiya, shuningdek Yevropa Ittifoqi bilan tobora ko'proq raqobatlashmoqda. Britaniya ham hamkorlik va o'zaro aloqa niqobi ostida Amerika loyihalarini barbod qilishga muvaffaq bo'ldi. Milliy razvedka kengashining sobiq vitse-raisi Graham Fuller "National Interest" jurnalining sonida Amerikaning ahvolini quyidagicha tasvirlagan: «turli mamlakatlar Bush dasturini zaiflashtirish, chalg'itish, o'zgartirish, murakkablashtirish, cheklash, kechiktirish yoki to'sish uchun ko'plab strategiya va taktikalarni qo'llagan — minglab kichik zarbalar orqali o'lim».

This has prompted Richard Hass the head of the most powerful US think tank to comment: ‘the age of US dominance in the Middle East has ended and a new era in the modern history of the region has begun. It will be shaped by new actors and new forces competing for influence, and to master it, Washington will have to rely more on diplomacy than on military might. The US is facing numerous challenges in regions of the world which only a decade ago it completely dominated. In the Middle East apart from needing the help of regional surrogates, the Middle East is gradually shifting from being a uni-polar region in which the US enjoys uncontested hegemony to a multi-polar region. The US is facing more competition from China and Russia over access to Middle East oil. The US is now increasingly competing with India and Japan as well as the European Union for the lion's share of the regions black gold. Britain has also managed to foil American projects under the guise of partnership and co-operation. Graham Fuller former vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council described America’s predicament when he wrote in the issue of the National Interest, ‘diverse countries have deployed a multiplicity of strategies and tactics designed to weaken, divert, alter, complicate, limit delay or block the Bush agenda through death by a thousand cuts.

Британия Тони Блэр даврида Америка Сьерра-Леоненинг президенти Каббани ағдариш ҳаракатини тўхтатди ва 11 сентябрдан кейин Ливияда режим алмаштиришни истаган америкалик неоконсерваторлар қўлидан Қаддафи ҳукуматини қутқариш учун тиришқоқлик билан ишлади. Суданда АҚШ Дарфур инқирози туфайли Жанубий Суданни ажратиб чиқара олмади, бу инқирозни Франция ва Британия Суданга аралашиш учун ишлатди. Жанубий Африкада Блэр Британия таъсирини ҳимоя қилиш учун АҚШ билан тинмай рақобатлашди ва мамлакатни қўшни Африка давлатларидаги ҳукуматга қарши фаолиятнинг асосий таянчига айлантирди.

Britain under Tony Blair’s tenure thwarted America’s bid to oust President Kabbah of Sierra Leone and worked diligently to rescue Gaddafi’s government from the clutches of American neoconservatives who after 9/11 wanted regime change in Libya. In Sudan the US has been unable to separate Southern Sudan due to the Darfur crisis which has been used by France and Britain to interfere in Sudan. In South Africa Blair competed tirelessly with the US to protect British influence and made the country the mainstay of anti-government activities in neighbouring African countries.

AQSh ham Xitoy Afrikani rivojlantirishda yetakchilikni qo‘lga olib, barqaror neft ta’minotini ta’minlash maqsadida 20 milliard dollardan ortiq qiymatga ega 100 dan ortiq bitim tuzgani sababli, o‘zini chetda qolib ketish xavfi ostida ko‘rmoqda.

The US is also facing the prospect of being left out to dry as China has taken leadership on African development by completing over 100 deals, worth over $20 billion, to secure a stable supply of oil.

Hind yarimoroli (Subkontinenti)da AQSh hukmronligi cheklandi, chunki Britaniya 2004-yilda Kongress partiyasining hokimiyatga kelishi orqali Hindiston ustidagi ta'sirini qayta tikladi. Amerikaparvar Bharatiya Janata partiyasi (BJP)ning mag'lubiyati AQSh manfaatlari uchun og'ir zarba bo'ldi. Pokistonda esa AQSh general Musharrafning pasayib borayotgan mashhurligini saqlab qolish maqsadida Britaniya bilan hokimiyatni bo'lishishga majbur bo'ldi.

In the Indian Subcontinent US dominance has been stifled as Britain reasserted its influence over India through the ascendancy of the Congress Party in 2004. The defeat of the pro-American Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was a severe blow to American interests. In Pakistan the US was forced to share power with Britain to salvage the declining popularity of General Musharraf.

Rossiya va Xitoy G'arb liberal demokratiyasining namunasiga ergashmasdan, tez sur'atlar bilan rivojlanmoqda. Biroq so'nggi bir yil ichida Rossiya deyarli har qadamda G'arbga, shuningdek AQShga ochiqdan-ochiq qarshi chiqishni tanladi: Arktika muz qoplamining tagidagi dengiz tubiga bayroq o'rnatishi, ulkan havodan portlovchi bomba sinovlarini o'tkazishi yoki Sharqiy Yevropadagi AQSh erta ogohlantirish mudofaa tizimlarining joylashuvi haqida bahs yuritishi buning misolidir. Rossiya Qozog'iston va O'zbekistonni Amerika ta'siridan qaytarib olib, Markaziy Osiyodagi uch inqilobning ta'sirini to'xtatganidan so'ng, o'zini mintaqaviy kuch sifatida qayta shakllantira boshladi. Deyarli 20 yil davomida raqibsiz qolgan AQSh endi dunyodagi eng katta gaz zaxiralari va talaygina neft zaxiralariga ega millat tomonidan qo'yilayotgan qiyin raqobat xavfiga duch kelmoqda.

Russia and China are rapidly developing without following the example of Western liberal democracy. However, it is Russia, which over the last year has opted to openly challenge the West as well as the US at practically every turn, whether by planting a flag on the seabed beneath the Arctic icecap, testing the massive ordnance air blast bomb or disputing the sitting of US earlywarning defence systems in eastern Europe. Russia has begun re-inventing itself as a regional power, after winning back Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan from America’s grip and managing to stop the influence of the three revolutions in central Asia. The US after nearly 20 years of having no rival is now facing the grim prospect of a challenge from a nation with the world’s largest gas reserves and substantial oil reserves.

AQSh Lotin Amerikasi ustidagi nazoratini ham yo'qotmoqda, bu hudud 1823-yildagi Monro doktrinasi davridan beri uning amalda "orqa hovlisiga" aylangan edi. Amerika Yevropa davlatlarining Amerika qit'asiga aralashishiga va AQShning manfaatlariga tahdid solishiga yo'l qo'ymadi. AQSh gegemonligi tufayli Lotin Amerikasi Yevropa imperializmining changalidan tashqarida qoldi.

The US is also losing its grip on Latin America which it essentially turned into its back yard since the time of the Monroe declaration in 1823. America prevented all the European states from interfering in the American continent, and from threatening the interests of the US. Due to US hegemony, Latin America remained outside the grip of the European imperialism.

Biroq, Venesuela, Braziliya, Argentina, Urugvay, Boliviya, Chili va Nikaragua'da chap qanot hukumatlari saylangani bilan AQSh birinchi marta Vashington manfaatlaridan ajralgan mustaqil kun tartibiga ega bo'lgan mustaqil hukumatlar tahdidiga duch kelmoqda. Venesuela, Braziliya va Boliviya kabi davlatlar muhim kommunal xizmatlarni milliylashtirgan va Xalqaro valyuta fondi hamda Jahon banki kabi AQSh hukmronligidagi institutlarga muqobil bo'lgan o'z versiyasi – Janubiy bankni yaratgan. Deyarli 200 yil o'tib, AQSh gegemonligi Amerika qit'asidagi mashhur mustaqil yetakchilar tomonidan ochiq-oydin e'tiroz ostida qolmoqda.

However, with the elections of left wing governments in Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia, Chile and Nicaragua, the US for the first time is facing the threat of independent governments who are following an independent agenda separate to Washington. Nations such as Venezuela, Brazil and Bolivia have nationalised key utilities and have developed an alternative to US dominated institutions such as the IMF and World Bank to their own version – Bank of the South. After nearly 200 years the US is finding its hegemony being openly challenged by popular independent leaders in the American continent.

AQSh ham o'zining 2-jahon urushiga kirgan kunidan boshlab shakllantirgan iqtisodiy gegemonligini yo'qotmoqda. Amerika iqtisodiyoti bir paytlar dunyoning kuchli tayanchi edi, ammo bugun uni rivojlanayotgan iqtisodiyotlar ortda qoldirmoqda. Iqtisodiy o'sish bo'yicha u hozir Xitoy va Hindistondan keyin uchinchi o'rinda turibdi. Bu muammo Amerikaning neft talabini yanada oshirishi tufayli yanada og'irlashmoqda.

The US is also losing its grip on its economic hegemony which it developed from the day it entered World War 2. The American economy used to be the world’s powerhouse, but today it is being left behind by emerging economies. It stands in third place now behind China and India in economic growth. This problem is further compounded by America’s continued demand for greater oil.

Amerika iqtisodiy jihatdan eng katta tahdidni Xitoydan oladi va ikki davlat o'rtasidagi munosabatlar allaqachon murakkab. AQSh kompaniyalari 1,5 milliardlik Xitoy aholisi bozoriga kirishga intilmoqda, shu bilan birga Xitoy tovarlarining 70 foizi AQShga yetib boradi. Xitoy bu munosabatlardan AQShga qaraganda ko'proq foyda ko'rdi, chunki u 1,2 trillion dollardan ortiq dollar zaxirasini to'plagan. Boshqa tomondan, AQShning mahalliy kompaniyalari sifatli ishlov berilgan mahsulotlar uchun Xitoyning past narxlariga teng kela olmaydi va bu AQSh savdo kamomadining deyarli 1 trillion dollarga yetishiga olib keldi. AQSh buni qimmatli qog'ozlar - G'aznachilik obligatsiyalarini chiqarish orqali moliyalashtiradi, ularning eng yirik xaridori Yaponiyadan keyin Xitoy bo'lib, u 502 milliard dollar sotib olgan, bu AQShning umumiy tashqi qarzining 20 foizini tashkil etadi. Bunga yana shuni qo'shish kerakki, Amerika foyda ko'rayotgan iqtisodiy yuksalishning o'zi Xitoyning neft talabini oshirmoqda. Ikki davlat o'rtasidagi munosabat o'zaro bog'liq bo'lib, AQSh bu ustidan to'liq nazoratga ega emas va shartlarni osonlikcha belgilay olmaydi.

America’s biggest threat economically comes from China and already both nations have a complex relationship. US companies are eager to tap into the 1.5 billion Chinese population, whilst at the same time 70% of Chinese goods end up on US shores. China has benefited more from this relationship than the US by accumulating over $1.2 trillion in dollar reserves. Domestic US companies on the other hand are unable to match Chinese low prices for quality workmanship and this has led the US trade deficit to balloon to nearly $1 trillion. The US funds this by issuing treasury bonds, of which China is the world’s largest purchaser after Japan at $502 billion, 20% of total US foreign debt. Added to this is that the very economic boom America is benefiting from is increasing demand for oil by China. The relationship between the two is interdependent which the US does not have full control over and cannot easily dictate terms.

Iroq va Afg'oniston urushlaridagi muvaffaqiyatsizlik AQShning dunyodagi obro'si va qudratiga jiddiy zarba berdi.

The debacle of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars has severely dented US prowess around the world.

AQSh, o'zini mag'lubiyatsiz deb hisoblashdan ko'ra, boshqalarga tobora ko'proq bog'liq ekani fosh bo'ldi va u ichki jihatdan qayg'u-alam dengizida cho'kib bormoqda. 2005-yilda e'lon qilingan FQB statistikasiga ko'ra, AQShda har 22 soniyada bitta jinoyat sodir etilgan, har 31 daqiqada bitta qotillik, har 5 daqiqada bitta zo'rlash va har daqiqada bitta talon-taroj sodir etilgan.

The US rather than being invincible has been exposed as being ever more reliant upon others and is drowning in a sea of misery domestically. FBI statistics highlighted in 2005 show that a crime was committed every 22 seconds in the US, with a murder committed every 31 minutes, a rape every 5 minutes and a robbery every minute.

AQSh hech qachon yengilmas emas; u o'zining imperiya davri tez sur'atda barham topayotganini his qilmoqda.

The US is far from invincible; it is finding its days of empire are fast eroding.