“如果有任何宗教有机会在未来一百年内统治英格兰，乃至整个欧洲，那么这个宗教可能就是伊斯兰教。”——乔治·萧伯纳 欧洲政界人士已开始公开对土耳其加入欧盟表示疑虑。奥地利财政部长卡尔-海因茨·格拉瑟称，土耳其的加入“将对欧洲提出过分的要求”。西班牙外交大臣米盖尔·安赫尔·莫拉蒂诺斯在两周前法国和荷兰举行公投之后承认，这两次否决“无疑将会影响”进一步扩大的计划。法国和荷兰的民意调查显示，反对土耳其加入欧盟是选民反对欧盟宪法的主要原因之一。

“If any religion had the chance of ruling over England, nay Europe within the next hundred years, it could be Islam” --George Bernard Shaw uropean politicians have started to raise doubts in public about Turkey’ s entry with the EU. Austrian Finance Minister Karl-Heinz Grasser said that Turkish membership “would make excessive demands of Europe.” Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos acknowledged two weeks ago, after the French and Dutch referendums, that “without a doubt” the two rejections were “going to affect” further expansion plans. Polls in France and the Netherlands showed that opposition to Turkey’ s membership was one of the key reasons voters gave for opposing the EU constitution.

最新的发展对阿卜杜拉·居尔去年十二月的说法泼了一盆冷水。当时他宣称，欧盟决定延长与土耳其的入盟谈判有助于这个穆斯林国家的稳定，并使其在欧洲和伊斯兰世界中获得新的地位。因此，欧盟与土耳其的关系不再取决于土耳其是否进行广泛的政治和经济改革。

The latest developments pour cold water on Abdullah Gul‘s claim last December that the European Union's decision to extend membership talks with Turkey contributes to the Muslim country's stability and gives it a new position in Europe and the Islamic world. Thus European Union’ s relationship with Turkey no longer rests on Turkey undergoing extensive political and economic reforms.

未来两者之间的关系将更可能由两个主要因素决定。

Rather future relations between the two will be decided by two major factors.

第一个是“文明的冲突”，这一点对于政界人士以及欧洲和土耳其的民众来说都十分明显：这种冲突是不可避免且持续存在的。法国前总统瓦莱里·吉斯卡尔·德斯坦曾说，土耳其作为一个伊斯兰国家、且大部分领土位于亚洲的大国加入欧洲，将意味着“欧洲的终结”。如今，吉斯卡尔的这番言论不仅在欧洲其他政界人士中有所回响，也在英国、法国、德国以及其他几个国家的民众中广泛流传。整个地区弥漫着深切的伊斯兰恐惧情绪，并唤起了人们对奥斯曼哈里发国曾主导欧洲事务的历史记忆。与此同时，土耳其的穆斯林也反对加入欧盟。他们担心自己会失去伊斯兰身份，并被迫接受西方价值观。例如，欧盟对土耳其拟将通奸入罪一事的指责，很快就被安卡拉撤回。这激怒了许多土耳其人，也进一步加剧了他们的忧虑，使他们更加相信欧洲是在蓄意针对伊斯兰价值观。

The first is the ‘clash of civilisations’ and is pretty obvious to politicians as well as the peoples of both Europe and Turkey that this clash is inevitable and ongoing. Valery Giscard d'Estaing, the former French president once said that the entry of Turkey, as an Islamic and mostly Asian power, would spell "the end of Europe". Today Giscard’ s remarks are not only echoed by fellow European politicians, but are widely shared amongst the populations of Britain, France, Germany and several other countries. There is a deep sense of Islamophobia, which has swept the region and rekindled past memories of the Ottoman Caliphate dominating the affairs of Europe. Equally, the Muslims of Turkey are opposed to joining the EU. They fear that they will be stripped of their Islamic identity and forced to adopt western values. For example EU’ s chastisement over Turkey’ s plan to outlaw adultery was quickly reversed by Ankara. This angered many Turks and only heightened their anxiety that Europe was intentionally targeting Islamic values.

这种局面一部分源于美国对伊斯兰发动的战争所造成的恐惧氛围，另一部分则归因于基督教世界与伊斯兰世界之间延续了数百年的冲突。这种态度上的两极分化若要克服，唯有通过辩论并解决两种文明之间的意识形态分歧才有可能。若在缺乏此类对话的情况下推进，无论欧盟在实现其既定的政治和经济目标方面取得多大进展，都注定会失败。

This in part is born out of the climate of fear produced by America’ s war on Islam and in part is due to the centuries old conflict between Christendom and Islam. This polarization in attitudes is impossible to overcome, unless the ideological differences between the two cultures are debated and settled. To proceed in the absence of such a dialogue will result in failure, no matter what progress is made towards achieving the political and economic goals set out by the EU.

其次，欧洲未能很好地接纳本土的穆斯林群体，那么它又有多大把握能够成功地接纳七千万土耳其人呢？以英国为例，穆斯林是社会剥夺程度最严重的族群。2004年10月，《卫报》报道称："穆斯林的失业率最高，健康状况最差，残疾率最高，受教育程度最低。在大多数方面，穆斯林女性的境况都比穆斯林男性更糟。"vi 法国和德国的穆斯林处境更为糟糕。禁止佩戴希贾布（头巾）、对年轻穆斯林进行随意盘问，以及拒绝授予公民身份，都是针对穆斯林的歧视行为中最突出的例子。

The second is that Europe has failed to accommodate its own Muslim populations, so what are the odds that it can successfully manage the inclusion of 70 million Turks. Take the example of Britain. Muslims are the most socially deprived ethnic group. In October 2004 the Guardian newspaper reported: ’Muslims had the highest rate of unemployment, the poorest health, the most disability and fewest educational qualifications. In most respects Muslim women fared worse than Muslim men did.’ vi Muslims in France and Germany fair much worse. The banning of the hijab, the random interrogation of young Muslims and the withholding of citizenship are at the forefront of discriminatory acts carried out against Muslims.

此外，欧洲列强不愿出面干预、保护波斯尼亚和科索沃的穆斯林，也凸显了欧洲对待其境内穆斯林的态度。在许多欧洲人看来，上述例子恰恰强化了一种观念：穆斯林和伊斯兰教与世俗主义是不相容的。

Add to this, the reluctance of the European powers to intervene and protect Muslims of Bosnia and Kosovo underscores Europe’ s attitude towards Muslims living on its shores. In European minds, the above examples only reinforce the idea that Muslims and Islam are incompatible with secularism.

很难相信，伊斯兰与西方之间当前的冲突，以及欧洲人对其本国穆斯林民众所犯下的不公，竟未引起土耳其领导人的注意。如果居尔当真希望土耳其在穆斯林世界中占据新的地位，那么他至少应当坚定地反对欧洲对其穆斯林民众的压迫。为此，土耳其可以要求大幅改善这些民众的处境，并将此作为与欧盟展开任何谈判的前提。这样一种大胆的姿态，将显著提升土耳其在穆斯林世界中的声望。此后，居尔应当深入思考土耳其的过去，以探寻今日的土耳其如何能够在欧洲占据新的地位。他很快就会得出结论：只有在伊斯兰之中，在哈里发制度的庇护之下，土耳其才曾在各国之间占据首屈一指的地位。那时，受压迫的欧洲人渴望哈里发制度的公正，并盼望加入其中。君士坦丁堡的居民不是曾恳求穆罕默德苏丹ﷺ将他们从君士坦丁的暴政中解救出来吗？

It is hard to believe that the current clash between Islam and the West and the injustices committed by Europeans towards their own Muslim populace has escaped the notice of Turkish leaders. If Gul is serious about Turkey occupying a new position in the Muslim world then the very least he can do is to stand firm against Europe’ s oppression of its Muslim populace. This can be achieved by Turkey demanding a significant improvement in their circumstances as a precursor to any talks between Turkey and the EU. Such a bold gesture would dramatically increase Turkey’ s standing in the Muslim world. Thereafter, Gul should dwell profoundly on Turkey’ s past in order to discover how the present Turkey can occupy a new position in Europe. He would quickly conclude that only in Islam and under the shade of the Caliphate did Turkey occupy a pre-eminent position amongst the nations of the world. Back then, the oppressed Europeans used to yearn for the justice of the Caliphate and longed to become a part of it. Did not the people of Constantinople implore Sultan Mohammed to liberate them from the tyranny of Constantine?

2005年6月14日

June 14, 2005