“65%的人希望把所有伊斯兰国家统一为一个伊斯兰国家或哈里发国。”——WorldPublicOpinion.org 不久前,布什总统宣布了他颇为期待的“大中东倡议”,作为其全球反恐战争的一部分。该计划的目的是通过推广自由与民主,在整个地区维持现有的世俗秩序。但在当今中东社会,布什的倡议却产生了恰恰相反的效果。各地的伊斯兰主义者在近期选举中取得了前所未有的进展,如今正直接挑战那些在美国庇护下得以维系的独裁政权和君主制政权。

“65% want to unify all Islamic counties into a single Islamic state or Caliphate.” -- WorldPublicOpinion.org Not so long ago, President Bush announced his much coveted Greater Middle East Initiative as part of his global war on terrorism. The aim of the plan was to preserve the existing secular order across the region through the promotion of freedom and democracy. But in today’ s Middle Eastern societies, Bush’ s initiative is having just the opposite effect. Islamists throughout the region have shown unprecedented gains in recent elections and now pose a direct challenge to the dictatorships and monarchies that thrive under American patronage.

在2005年埃及议会选举期间,穆斯林兄弟会赢得了20%xxii的席位。如果穆巴拉克政权在第二轮和第三轮投票中没有诉诸恐吓手段,这一数字本会高得多。然而,尽管政权采取了残酷的手段镇压伊斯兰主义者,穆斯林兄弟会仍然打出"伊斯兰是解决之道"的口号,在争取埃及选民支持方面胜过世俗对手。 在2005年伊拉克议会选举中,宗教政党获得了伊拉克选票的大部分。在众议院的275个席位中,以什叶派为主导的伊拉克统一联盟赢得了128个席位。该联盟包括由总理易卜拉欣·贾法里领导的达瓦党,以及由阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹·哈基姆领导的伊拉克伊斯兰革命最高委员会。该联盟距离绝对多数仅差10票。逊尼派原教旨主义者组成的伊拉克协议阵线获得44个席位,而库尔德伊斯兰主义者则获得了5个席位。

During Egypt’ s parliamentary elections in 2005, the Muslim Brotherhood secured 20%xxii of the seats. Had not Mubarak’ s regime resorted to intimidation in the second and third rounds of the balloting, the figure would have been much higher. But despite the regimes brutal tactics to suppress the Islamists, the Muslim Brotherhood employed the slogan ‘Islam is the solution’ and outperformed secular rivals in garnering greater support amongst Egypt’ s electorate. In the Iraqi parliamentary elections of 2005, the religious parties took the bulk of the Iraqi votes. Of 275 seats in the Council of Representatives, the Shia dominated United Iraqi Alliance won 128 seats. The alliance includes the Dawa Party led by Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. The alliance fell 10 votes short of an absolute majority. The Sunni fundamentalists of the Iraqi Accord Front secured 44 seats, while Kurdish Islamists took 5

……席位。若非美国及其代理人直接干预选举进程，伊斯兰主义者的得票力量本会使世俗主义者完全被边缘化。无论如何，伊拉克众议院将由具有强烈宗教倾向的代表主导，他们很可能会抛弃其认为明显世俗化的政策。定于2006年1月25日举行的巴勒斯坦选举结果，很可能会与埃及和伊拉克的选举结果相似。

seats. Had not America and her surrogates interfered directly in the electoral process, the strength of the Islamists’ vote would have completely marginalized the secularists. In any case, the Iraqi Council of Representatives will be dominated by representatives who have a strong religious disposition and are expected to throw out policies which they deem to be overtly secular. The outcome of the Palestinian election scheduled for January 25 2006 will probably mimic the election results of Egypt and Iraq.

已经有民调机构预测哈马斯将取得强劲表现，该组织对以色列态度坚决，并已发誓要将其摧毁。

Already pollsters are predicting a strong showing for Hamas which is avidly anti-Israeli and has vowed its destruction.

哈马斯派出62名候选人参选，预计将在巴勒斯坦立法委员会132个席位中赢得超过三分之一。以色列威胁要取消该组织的参选资格，美国也不满其强硬立场，这些反而提升了该组织的声望。除法塔赫之外，其他世俗政党都无法有效抗衡哈马斯及其他伊斯兰主义势力日益增长的影响力。法塔赫深陷内部分裂，且被普遍视为腐败，将成为此次选举的主要失败者。

Hamas fielding 62 candidates is projected to take more than a third of the 132 seats available in the Palestinian Legislative Council. Threats from Israel to preclude the organisation from contesting the election and America’ s dislike of its hard-line stance have boosted the group’ s popularity. Apart from Fatah, the other secular party’ s cannot mount an effective challenge to the growing influence of Hamas and other Islamists. Fatah reeling from internal schisms and widely viewed as being corrupt will be the main looser.

这一由伊斯兰主义者在选举中压过世俗主义者的态势，在阿拉伯世界其他地方也在重演。例如，去年沙特的市政选举中，伊斯兰主义者赢得了利雅得7个席位中的6个，并在吉达和麦加席卷选举。在东部省的若干城镇，获得逊尼派伊斯兰主义者支持的候选人也赢得了市议会的控制权。2003年也门议会选举中，也门改革集团（伊斯兰改革党，Islah）由伊斯兰主义和部落势力结合而成，赢得了301个席位中的46个，目前构成反对派。同年，伊斯兰主义者联合起来赢得了科威特议会50个席位中的17席，在科威特议会中形成了占主导地位的意识形态集团。在约旦、巴林和摩洛哥，伊斯兰主义者也有所斩获，且往往是以世俗主义者的损失为代价的。xxiii

The pattern of Islamists outshining secularists in elections is being repeated elsewhere in the Arab world. For instance in the Saudi municipal elections last year, Islamists won 6 of the 7 seats in Riyadh and swept the elections in Jeddah and Makkah. Candidates backed by Sunni Islamists also won control of the municipal councils in a number of towns in the Eastern Province. In the 2003 parliamentary election in Yemen, the Yemeni Reform Group (Islah), a combination of Islamist and tribal elements, won 46 of the 301 seats and now forms the opposition. That year, Islamists combined to win 17 of the 50 seats in the Kuwaiti parliament, where they form the dominant ideological bloc. In Jordan, Bahrain and Morocco too, Islamists have made gains often at the expense of secularistsxxiii.

伊斯兰主义者无处不在，而世俗主义者迅速衰落，这些已经改变了阿拉伯世界的政治格局。早期迹象表明，这种转变将是持久的。根据2004年Zogby International-Sadat Chair的民意调查，在约旦、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋接受调查的人中，有人认为宗教人士应在其国家政治体系中发挥更大的作用。

The ubiquitous presence of Islamists and the rapid decline of the secularists have altered the political landscape of the Arab world. Early indications suggest that this transformation is going to be permanent. According to the 2004 Zogby International-Sadat Chair poll, of those surveyed in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE said the clergy should play a greater role in their political systems.

在接受调查的埃及人中，有百分之五十认为宗教学者不应主导政治制度，但多达百分之四十七的人支持他们发挥更大的作用。由此可见政治趋势是明确的：阿拉伯世界越民主，伊斯兰主义者上台执政的可能性就越大。xxiv

Fifty percent of Egyptians polled said the clerics should not dictate the political system, but as many as 47 percent supported a greater role for them. So the political trend is clear; more democratic the Arab world gets, the more likely it is that Islamists will come to powerxxiv.

不仅布什在中东推动民主的努力加强了政治伊斯兰的势力，而且也未能遏制激进伊斯兰的浪潮，后者正日益变得更加暴力。

Not only has Bush’ s democracy drive in the Middle East strengthened political Islam it has also failed to stymie the tide of militant Islam which grows more violent by the day.

2005年4月,美国国务院决定停止发布年度国际恐怖主义报告。原因是政府最高级别的反恐机构得出结论:2004年的恐怖袭击数量超过了自1985年(该报告首次涵盖的年份)以来的任何一年。这一举措的另一个牺牲品是"争取人心"的斗争。根据2005年Zogby关于阿拉伯人对美国态度的民意调查,63%的约旦人、85%的埃及人、89%的沙特人、66%的黎巴嫩人以及69%的阿联酋人对美国持不利看法。

In April 2005, the US State Department decided to stop publishing an annual report on international terrorism after the government's top terrorism centre concluded that there were more terrorist attacks in 2004 than in any year since 1985, the first year the publication covered. Another casualty of this initiative has been the battle of hearts and minds. According to the 2005 Zogby poll on Arab attitudes towards America, 63% of Jordanians, 85 % of Egyptians, 89% of Saudis, 66% of Lebanese, and 69% of the people in UAE had an unfavourable opinion of America.

布什在中东推进民主的计划之失败，国内的决策者也并未忽视。布什的支持者与其计划的批评者之间爆发了激烈的争论。计划的反对者认为，布什在推动中东民主的过程中，没有充分孤立伊斯兰主义者，也没有足够扶持温和派。他们还坚称，伊斯兰主义者，尤其是那些极力反美的人，不可信任，必须被排除在民主实验之外。他们的观点基于这样一种想法：穆斯林世界拒绝接受西方价值观，其根源在于伊斯兰教的意识形态。在他们看来，伊斯兰教的经典文本必须发生根本性的改变，阿拉伯世界才可能被西方接纳。

The collapse of Bush’ s plan to advance democracy in the Middle East has not escaped the attention of policy makers back home. A bitter dispute has broken out between supporters of Bush and the critics of his plan. The opponents of his plan argue that Bush is not doing enough to isolate the Islamists and promote the moderates as part of the democracy push in the Middle East. They also maintain that Islamists, especially those that are vociferously anti- American cannot be trusted and must be excluded from the democracy experiment. Their view is based on the idea that the refusal of the Muslim world to accept western values lies with the ideology of Islam. In their opinion the Islamic texts have to fundamentally change before the Arab world can be accepted by the West.

另一方面，支持者主张一种更为务实的做法。他们认为，只要让伊斯兰主义者参与民主进程，阿拉伯世界就能被塑造成一个接受西方价值观、反美情绪大大减弱、并且心甘情愿接受美国霸权的地区。他们的这一信念基于这样一个前提：把伊斯兰主义者排除在民主进程之外，只会滋生针对西方的怨恨与暴力。他们举土耳其为阿拉伯世界应当效仿的理想模式。这一观点的主要倡导者是新保守主义者马克·格雷赫特（Marc Gerecht），他近期在题为《虔诚的民主》（"Devout Democracies"）的文章中指出，穆斯林世界的自治将带有宗教成分，西方不应对此现象感到恐惧。

The supporters on the other hand advocate a more pragmatic approach. They believe that by co-opting Islamists in the democratic process, the Arab world can be moulded into a region that accepts western values, is substantially less anti-American and willingly accepts American hegemony. Their belief rests on the premise that by keeping Islamists out of the democratic process will only breed resentment and violence against the West. They cite Turkey as the ideal model for the Arab world to follow. A major proponent of this view is the neoconservative Marc Gerecht who recently argued in an article entitled ‘Devout Democracies’ that self rule in the Muslim world will have a religious component and the West should not be afraid of this phenomena.

无论两种观点中哪一种最终能够引导美国在中东的民主实验，它对遏制政治伊斯兰的兴起所起的作用都将微乎其微。这是因为中东人民永远不会忘记，也不会原谅美国对以色列的无条件支持、对阿拉伯残暴独裁政权的坚定扶持、对他们自然资源的掠夺、对资本主义解决方案和价值观的强行推行，以及美国为对伊拉克人民和其他穆斯林发动战争所做的坚决努力。

Whichever of the two views succeeds in guiding America’ s democracy experiment in the Middle East, it will have a negligible impact on curbing the rise of political Islam. This is because the people of the Middle East will never forget or forgive America’ s unstinting support for Israel, her unflinching support for the brutal Arab dictatorships, her exploitation of their natural resources, her imposition of capitalist solutions and values, and her determined efforts to wage wars against the people of Iraq and other Muslims.

这些痛苦的现实永远铭刻在阿拉伯人的心中，并不断促使阿拉伯民众在政治伊斯兰中寻求慰藉。

These painful realities are permanently etched on the minds of the Arabs and continuously urge the Arab populace to seek solace in political Islam.

中东是伊斯兰世界的心脏,如今它正涌动着政治伊斯兰的热潮,这必然导致哈里发制度的重新出现。无论是推广民主还是回避其实施,用世俗化的解读取代伊斯兰文本,孤立伊斯兰主义者并鼓励温和派,推翻政权并以顺从美国的代理人取而代之,都不会改变这一结局。美国过去与阿拉伯人的关系,已经决定了它与当下阿拉伯人的关系。现在是美国政策制定者思考未来的时候了——美国希望与哈里发国建立何种关系?

The Middle East is the heart of the Islamic world and right now it is pulsating with political Islam that will inevitably lead to the re-emergence of the Caliphate. Promoting democracy or eschewing its implementation, substituting Islamic texts with secular interpretations, isolating Islamists and encouraging moderates, destroying regimes and replacing them with compliant US surrogates is not going to change the outcome. America’ s past relations with the Arabs has sealed her fate with the present Arabs. The time has come for US policy makers to think about the future – what type of relations does the US want with the Caliphate?

2006年1月23日

January 23, 2006