“从来没有哪位美国总统在历史上——我说的确实是两位布什总统——与另一个外国势力有过如此亲密的关系……我们与沙特阿拉伯订有一项协议，这段关系已经延续了40年……

“Never before in history has a president of the United States— and I'm really referring to both President Bushes—has had such a close relationship with another foreign power... we had a pact with Saudi Arabia in a relationship that's gone back 40 years...

“我们得到石油，我们把武器卖给他们，而协议的一部分是我们不去细究沙特阿拉伯真正发生的事情。”——Craig Ugnar 2005年4月25日，王储阿卜杜拉访问乔治·布什，讨论了一系列议题，从中东和平进程到打击恐怖主义。然而，阿卜杜拉此次访问的核心，是向布什总统提出一项新的方案，旨在提高沙特的石油产量，从而在一定程度上缓解原油价格的压力。

we get oil, we sell them weapons, and part of the pact was we didn't look too closely at what was really going on in Saudi Arabia.” -- Craig Ugnar n April 25 2005, Crown Prince Abdullah visited George Bush to discuss a number of issues ranging from the Middle East peace process to fighting terrorism. However, the centrepiece of Abdullah’ s visit was to present President Bush with a fresh proposal to boost Saudi oil production that would go some way towards easing pressure on the price of crude oil.

这次访问经过精心安排，恰好与布什宣布新能源战略的时间相吻合。当时，石油公司和普通美国民众对政府的石油政策日益担忧，认为该政策正在失效，并损害美国经济，而这一战略正是为应对这些担忧而提出的。

The visit was carefully scripted to coincide with Bush’ s announcement of a new energy strategy to counter growing concerns amongst oil companies and ordinary Americans that the administration’ s oil policy was faltering and hurting the US economy.

来自石油公司的批评，因伊拉克石油安全问题迟迟未见进展而愈演愈烈。尽管投入了$16

Criticism from oil companies has been fuelled by the lack of progress made in securing Iraq’ s oil. Despite devoting $1.6

……亿美元的国会拨款用于发展伊拉克石油基础设施，但伊拉克的石油产量仍比2003年初、即美国入侵推翻萨达姆·侯赛因之前的水平低25%。民众中的反抗武装使石油输出降至涓涓细流。通往土耳其的输油管道遭到破坏，限制了基尔库克周边北部油田的出口；暴力活动又阻碍了对规模更大的南部油田进行现代化改造的努力。结果是，伊拉克上个月的原油出口量为143万桶，比3月减少了3万桶。这远低于战后一些分析人士预测的400万桶。

billion of Congressional aid to develop Iraqi oil infrastructure, Iraq is still producing 25 percent lower than levels in early 2003, before the U.S. invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. The popular Iraqi insurgency has reduced the flow of oil to a trickle. The sabotage of a pipeline to Turkey has restricted exports from Iraq's northern fields, around Kirkuk, and violence has hampered efforts to modernize the larger southern fields. The result is that Iraq exported 1.43 million barrels of crude oil last month, down 30,000 barrels from March. This is nowhere near the 4 million barrels forecasted by some analysts in the aftermath of the war.

此外,美国石油高管们还对新保守派心怀不满,他们认为正是新保守派通过将伊拉克石油工业私有化、而非重新国有化,助长了叛乱。美国石油工业提出的伊拉克石油国有化计划,在最后关头被新保守派提出的石油私有化并瓦解欧佩克的计划所取代。

In addition, US oil executives have been further aggrieved by the neo-conservatives whom they blame for encouraging the insurgency through the privatization of Iraq’ s oil industry as opposed to its re-nationalization. The plan to nationalize Iraqi oil, which was put forward by the US oil industry, was superseded at the last minute by a neoconservative plan to privatize Iraq’ s oil and destroy OPEC.

在萨达姆政权垮台之后的动荡局面中，美国石油公司无法开采伊拉克的油田，从而阻碍了它们增加伊拉克石油供应的努力。

In the ensuing chaos of the post Saddam era, the US oil companies were prevented from exploiting Iraq’ s oil fields thereby hindering their efforts to increase Iraqi oil supply.

未能与伊拉克的油田合作,对美国石油公司而言是一记沉重打击。据美国能源部称,伊拉克新增产能的成本在全球属于最低之列。截至目前,其74个油田中仅有15个得到开发;已探明储量为1120亿桶,但有人预测最终可能超过3000亿桶。采收率为50

Failure to work with Iraq’ s oil fields was a huge blow to American oil companies. According to the United States Department of Energy the costs of bringing new production on line in Iraq are among the lowest in the world. As of yet only 15 of its 74 fields have been developed; known reserves are 112 billion barrels, but some predict it may turn out to exceed 300 billion barrels. With recovery rates of 50

……以及2500亿桶的储量，伊拉克的石油价值可能超过3万亿美元。 Wait, let me correct that: the original says "per cent" and "250 billion barrels," so the faithful translation is: 百分之……且储量达2500亿桶，伊拉克石油的价值可能超过3万亿美元。

per cent and reserves of 250 billion barrels, Iraqi oil could be worth more than $3 trillion.

在国内层面，消费者不得不忍受加油站汽油价格飙升，并且大多把美国的能源困境归咎于布什。美联社与美国在线（AOL）最近的一项民意调查显示，公众对总统处理能源问题的评价很低，62%的受访者表示不满。民主党人抓住糟糕的支持率大做文章，强调布什政府几乎没有采取任何措施，使饱受高油价之苦的民众得到解脱。参议员约翰·克里说：“五年过去了，身处创纪录高汽油价格之下的美国人，仍在等待总统兑现他向欧佩克施压的承诺。”

On the domestic front, consumers have had to put up with soaring gas prices at the pump and blame Bush for much of America’ s energy woes. A recent Associated Press-AOL poll found the public giving the president low marks for his handling of energy problems, with 62 percent saying they disapproved. The democrats have seized on the poor approval ratings to drive home the point that the Bush administration has done next to nothing to rescue the beleaguered public from high oil prices. “Five years later, and Americans suffering under record-high gas prices are still waiting to see the president keep his promise to jawbone OPEC,”ix said Senator John Kerry.

面对日益高涨的批评声浪,布什政府的应对之举是:将沃尔福威茨、博尔顿等有影响力的新保守派人物从政策制定岗位调往政策执行岗位。政府还要求沙特方面拟定一项计划,大幅提升其石油产能。沙特石油部长阿里·纳伊米在阿卜杜拉访问得克萨斯州之前提出的这项计划提议,在五年内投入500亿美元,将沙特的产能从目前的每日1100万桶上限提升至2009年的每日1250万桶。如有必要,沙特阿拉伯表示最终将把产能发展到每日1500万桶。美国国家安全顾问斯蒂芬·哈德利将沙特的计划称为一项重大突破。他说:"真正提出的是一项通过大规模投资来增加产量的计划——长期投入约500亿美元。所以这是他们承担的一项重大举措。" 尽管这笔巨额投资将为美国经济提供补充,沙特方面还计划向美国能源公司提供巨大的商机,邀请它们投资沙特阿拉伯的其他能源领域。阿卜杜拉王储在费尔蒙酒店向沙特—美国商务委员会(SABC)组织的美国商人发表讲话时宣布,他有意于2005年最后一个季度主办国际能源论坛(IEF)会议。他说:"我们邀请你们继续与我们在矿业和天然气领域合作,这些领域提供了许多投资机会。机会众多,只要真主许可,成功是有保障的。你们可以选择直接投资,或者建立合资项目。"阿卜杜拉王储还计划通过提议放宽保护沙特新兴经济的法律,使美国商人更容易将财富转移出该国。 “关于经济改革，阿卜杜拉说：“我们已经颁布了清晰且灵活的税法，重组了金融市场，使其与国际标准接轨，并加快了私有化进程。”显然，美国人将是阿卜杜拉计划的真正受益者。首先，沙特人将花费500亿美元增加原油产量，只会使国际石油市场充斥石油，导致油价下跌。这将大幅减少沙特的利润，并严重损害该国经济。另一方面，廉价原油将是美国经济的福音，而美国经济目前正因高油价而陷入困境。”

The Bush administration faced with the growing tide of criticism has responded by removing influential neoconservatives like Wolfowitz and Bolton away from policy making to policy execution. The administration has also asked the Saudi’ s to come up with a plan that dramatically increases its oil production capacity. The plan outlined by Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi before Abdullah’ s visit to Texas, proposes to spend $50 billion over a five–year period to increase Saudi production capacity to 12.5 million barrels per day by 2009 from the current 11 million limit. If necessary, Saudi Arabia says it will eventually develop a capacity of 15 million barrels a day. US National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley described the Saudi plan as a major breakthrough. He said, “What really came was a plan for increasing production through substantial investment — to the tune of about $50 billion over time. So it's a major initiative that they've undertaken."x Notwithstanding this huge investment to supplement America’ s economy, the Saudi’ s also plan to give US energy companies a huge bonanza by inviting them to invest in Saudi Arabia’ s other energy sectors. Addressing an audience of American businessmen organized by the Saudi-American Business Council (SABC) at the Fairmont Hotel, Prince Abdullah announced his intention to host a conference of the International Energy Forum (IEF) in the last quarter of 2005. He said, “We invite you to continue to cooperate with us in the mining and gas sectors which offer a number of investment opportunities. There are many opportunities and success is guaranteed, God willing. You can choose direct investment or establish joint projects.” Crown Prince Abdullah also plans to make it easier for American businessmen to take wealth out of the country by proposing to relax the laws protecting the fledging Saudi economy. Speaking about the economic reforms, Abdullah said, “We have enacted a clear and flexible taxation law, reorganized the financial market so that it matches international standards and have expedited the privatization process.” Clearly the Americans will be the real beneficiaries of Abdullah’ s plan. Firstly, the Saudi’ s will spend $50 billion to increase the production of crude oil only to flood the international oil market and have its price reduced. This will sharply diminish Saudi profits and significantly damage the country’ s economy. On the other hand, cheap crude oil will be a godsend to the American economy, which at present is reeling from high oil prices.

其次,沙特将向美国石油公司支付数十亿美元,由其开展必要的工作以提高石油产能。这既不会带来技术转让,也无法创造足够的就业岗位,来缓解沙特日益攀升的失业人数。目前,失业率为20%(实际数字可能高达30%)。鉴于沙特人口将在2020年前从2000万翻倍至4000万,这一数字可能还会进一步上升。因此,沙特公民在不久的将来求职的前景极为黯淡。

Secondly, the Saudi’ s will be paying American oil companies billions of dollars to carry out the necessary work to increase the capacity of oil production. It will neither result in transfer of technology nor create sufficient jobs to lessen Saudi Arabia’ s burgeoning unemployment figures. At present, the unemployment rate is at 20% (the real figure could be as high as 30%). But this figure could increase even further, given that the Saudi population is going to double from 20 million to 40 million by 2020. Hence the outlook for Saudi’ s seeking employment in the near future looks extremely bleak.

第三，私有化运动再加上宽松的税收法律，将导致美国人控制沙特阿拉伯的一些重要资产，例如沙特电信公司。此外，美国跨国公司会以提供更好公共服务为借口，收取更高的价格并攫取巨额利润，而其中只有很少一部分会重新投入沙特经济。大部分资金将被汇回美国，其余部分则会流入一些沙特王子的海外账户。

Thirdly, the privatization drive coupled with loose taxation laws will result in American ownership of some of Saudi Arabia’ s vital assets like the Saudi Telecom Company. In addition, under the pretext of providing better public services, the American multinationals will charge higher prices and generate huge profits, very little of which will be ploughed back into the Saudi economy. Most of it will be repatriated back to the US, whilst some of it will end up in the foreign accounts of Saudi princes.

第四，尽管沙特阿拉伯与美国之间的双边贸易额已从1970年微不足道的1.6亿美元增长到2004年的260亿美元，但在此期间，沙特人民却日益贫困。1999年的人均国内生产总值甚至低于1965年，即石油价格大幅上涨之前的水平。因此，阿卜杜拉邀请美国人投资其他能源储备，无异于将沙特人民的未来拱手交给美国的奴役。

Fourthly, though the bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia and the US has increased from a measly sum of $160 million in 1970 to $26 billion in 2004, the Saudi people during this period have become increasingly poor. In 1999, the per capita GDP was less than it was in 1965, before the massive rise in oil prices. So by inviting the Americans to invest in other energy reserves, Abdullah is signing away the future of the Saudi people to American slavery.

不出所料,布什政府接受了阿卜杜拉的计划,并将其纳入其重振后的能源战略之中。该战略包括:将军事基地改建为炼油厂,探索开采美国石油储备的途径,以及探索更清洁的燃料。

Not surprisingly, the Bush administration embraced Abdullah’ s plan and included it, as part of their revitalized energy strategy. This consists of turning military bases into oil refineries, exploring ways of tapping US oil reserves and exploring cleaner fuels.

因此,当布什推出其重振后的能源政策时,他成功地压低了原油价格。这解释了阿卜杜拉访问得克萨斯州的原因,国家安全事务顾问斯蒂芬·哈德利对此予以证实。他说:"目前石油市场的问题在于人们认为产能不足。"哈德利表示,向市场保证现有供应充足,应当"对价格产生下行压力"。哈德利的这番话也暗示了这种保证的不稳定性。这在很大程度上取决于布什政府能否克服环保人士和其他反对在阿拉斯加等地钻探石油、以及反对将现有军事基地改建为炼油厂的压力团体的阻力。

Therefore, when Bush unveiled his rejuvenated energy policy, he succeeded in pushing down the price of crude oil. This explains the reason behind Abdullah’ s visit to Texas and was confirmed by National Security Adviser Stephen Headley who said, "The problem in the oil market now is a perception that there is inadequate capacity." Reassurance that can be given to the market on available supply, he said, should "have a downward pressure on the price." Hadley’ s statement also alludes to the fickle nature of this reassurance. Much is dependent upon the Bush administration’ s ability to overcome resistance from environmentalists and other pressure groups who are opposed to the drilling for oil in places like Alaska and also to the conversion of existing military bases into oil refineries.

在这一点上，布什的能源战略是一种防御性的战略。

In this respect, Bush’ s energy strategy is a defensive one.

鉴于在伊拉克的失利，政府被迫探索提升美国国内石油产量的途径。

Having failed in Iraq, the administration has been forced into exploring ways to boost the domestic output of US oil.

随着冬季临近，欧佩克正将石油产量开足马力，白宫也在加紧寻找办法，以遏制下一轮危机。

With winter approaching and OPEC pumping oil to its maximum, the race is on in the White House to find ways to stymie the next crisis.

然而，美国当前的困境为沙特人民摆脱美国霸权提供了一个理想的机会。如果沙特王室对此是真诚的，他们本可以采取多种策略来摆脱对美国的依赖。

However, America’ s current predicament presents an ideal opportunity for the Saudi’ s to free their people from American hegemony. Had the House of Saud been sincere about this, they could have employed number of strategies to sever their dependency on the US.

沙特人本可以切断原油供应,使石油与美元脱钩,改以欧元或人民币(中国货币)进行交易。这将迫使世界各国迅速抛售美元,转而换取沙特偏好的结算货币。这样的举动还将迫使欧洲,尤其是与美国存在尖锐分歧的中国等大国,去抵制美国针对沙特阿拉伯的任何行动。

The Saudi’ s could have cut the supply of crude oil, decoupled it from the dollar and sold it in currency like the Euro or the Yuan (Chinese currency). This would force the world to quickly sell the dollar in return for the Saudi’ s preferred currency of exchange. A move like this would also force powers like Europe and especially China, a country that has sharp differences with the US to counter any US manoeuvres against Saudi Arabia.

沙特人还可以用部分石油换取技术和重工业,从而减少对外籍劳工的依赖,并创造新的就业机会。如此一来,沙特人便能引导其经济走向自给自足与经济繁荣的道路。

The Saudi’ s could also barter some of their oil in exchange for technology and heavy industry thereby reducing dependency on foreign workers and creating new jobs. In this way the Saudi’ s could steer their economy towards a path of self–sufficiency and economic prosperity.

很难想象阿卜杜拉和沙特王室会选择这样激进的主张，因为他们的存在本身就依赖于英美的支持。

It is very unlikely that Abdullah and the House of Saud would opt for such radical ideas, as their very existence depends upon Anglo-American support.

这些理念只能在一个摆脱了控制沙特政权的盎格鲁-美国代理人的环境中才能追求。只有哈里发国才能营造出一个让沙特人能够享有政治独立和经济主权、不受外国控制的环境。

These ideas can only be pursued in an environment that is free from Anglo-American surrogates who dominate the Saudi regime. Only the Caliphate can produce an environment where the Saudi’ s can enjoy political independence and economic sovereignty free from foreign control.

2005年5月10日

May 10, 2005