“与第一次世界大战前的局势颇为相似，各种联盟与地区集团可能会形成，以挑战美国的霸权。如果其中某一实体能够足够迅速地巩固其权力，一个新的两极世界或将出现。潜在的新超级大国可能是中国、泛阿拉伯联盟，或是统一的欧洲联盟（EU）。”——罗伯特·德耶索 布什总统上任至今才不过六年，人们曾经寄予厚望的21世纪属于美国，如今却即将戛然而止。美国在世界四方的主导地位，正受到盟友与敌人的共同挑战。

“Much like the time leading up to World War I, coalitions and regional blocs could form to contest American supremacy. If one of these entities could consolidate its power quickly enough, a new bipolar world could emerge. Potentially, China, a pan-Arab coalition, or a unified European Union (EU) could become this new superpower.” -- Robert DeYeso Barely six years have elapsed since President Bush took office and the much coveted 21st century belongs to America is about to come to an abrupt end. America’ s pre-eminence in four corners of the world is being challenged by friends and foes alike.

在美国自家的后院——拉丁美洲，委内瑞拉总统乌戈·查韦斯正在带头发起一场运动，意在削弱美国在该地区的利益。他成功争取到古巴、玻利维亚和厄瓜多尔领导人的支持，共同推行他的主张。他们联手挑战美国的霸权地位，发起一场运动，要从西方公司手中收回石油和天然气田，并将其直接置于国家控制之下。

In America’ s own backyard— Latin America— Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is spearheading a crusade to undermine US interests across the region. He has successfully garnered the support of the leaders of Cuba, Bolivia and Ecuador to propagate his cause. Together they have challenged American supremacy by embarking on a campaign to reclaim oil and gas fields from western companies and put them directly under state control.

跨越大西洋的另一端，欧洲对伊拉克战争深感反感，并且强烈反对布什政府的单边主义议程，至多只提供了名义上的援助。

Across the Atlantic, Europe smitten by the Iraq war and deeply hostile to the unilateralist agenda of the Bush administration has at best offered nominal assistance.

相反,一有机会,欧洲国家——尤其是法国、德国和英国——所表现出来的更像是美国的敌人而非盟友。法国在黎巴嫩的顽固立场、欧洲拒绝向伊拉克和阿富汗派遣大量军队、英国对巴勒斯坦问题的干预,以及法国和英国对达尔富尔问题解决方案的敌视,都损害了美国在世界上的地位,侵蚀了其合法性。

Rather, given the opportunity the Europeans—notably the French, the Germans and the British have behaved more as foes than American allies. French intransigence in Lebanon, Europe’ s refusal to commit significant troops to Iraq and Afghanistan, Britain’ s interference in Palestine, and French and British hostility towards a Darfur settlement have damaged America’ s standing in the world and eroded her legitimacy.

俄罗斯和中国在美国二十年左右的权力压制之下沉寂过后，已经重新振作，以对抗美国所支持、席卷中亚的各种革命。乌兹别克斯坦重新回到莫斯科的势力范围之内；吉尔吉斯斯坦和白俄罗斯成功挫败了美国支持的起义；美国未能巩固其在乌克兰取得的政治成果；而格鲁吉亚则因与华盛顿的关系而遭受了俄罗斯的严厉反击。

Russia and China subdued by twenty or so years of American power have reawakened to counter American inspired revolutions sweeping Central Asia. Uzbekistan returned to Moscow’ s sphere of influence, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus successfully thwarted US backed uprisings; America failed to press home the political gains made in Ukraine, and Georgia witnessed a severe backlash from Russia over its ties with Washington.

此外,作为上海合作组织(SCO)中的小国,吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦已经变得足够大胆,要求美国撤出其驻军基地。美国在这一地区的收益几乎化为乌有。

Furthermore, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the minnow states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have become emboldened enough to demand withdrawal of American bases. America’ s gains in this region almost stand to naught.

更糟的是，反恐战争无意中巩固了中俄关系，使美国多年来为让这两个昔日敌国保持距离所做的战略谋划付诸东流。中俄联盟在经济增长以及共同推动两极世界的愿望下重新焕发活力，并将其触角伸向全球，损害了美国的利益。

Worse still is that the war on terror has inadvertently solidified China’ s relationship with Russia—undoing years of American strategic planning to keep the two erstwhile enemies apart. The China-Russian alliance reinvigorated with economic growth and a common desire to see a bipolar world has spread its tentacles across the globe harming US interests.

俄罗斯对美国的威胁毫不在意，仍在为委内瑞拉和伊朗提供现代化武器。中国的能源公司正在签署石油协议，而这些地方传统上一直是美国石油巨头的势力范围。在中东，俄罗斯和中国都对美国在伊朗问题上的立场提出了强烈反对。在朝鲜半岛，北京对平壤毫无保留的支持，暴露了华盛顿无力阻止朝鲜成为核国家。

Russia unfazed by American threats is equipping Venezuela and Iran with modern weaponryxxv. Chinese energy companies are signing oil deals in places that have traditionally been the preserve of American oil giantsxxvi. In the Middle East, both Russian and China have taken strong objection to America’ s position over Iran. On the Korean peninsula, Beijing’ s unfettered support for Pyongyang has exposed Washington’ s inability to prevent North Korea from becoming nuclear.

在整个穆斯林世界，美国的公信力已跌至历史最低点。伊拉克和阿富汗抵抗的猛烈程度，已经打断了美国军队的脊梁，迫使布什总统放弃其推进民主的计划。布什既无法将美国从伊拉克和阿富汗脱身，只得重新回到"杜鲁门主义"，并寻求叙利亚、伊朗和巴基斯坦等世俗专制政权的帮助。美国不但没有按照自身的形象重塑穆斯林世界，布什政府的邪恶政策反而使该地区伊斯兰化，使穆斯林大众政治化，使他们从精神的沉睡中觉醒，并将穆斯林知识分子凝聚为一股强大的政治伊斯兰力量。总而言之，纵观过去六年，可以说美国正在促成哈里发国的诞生。

Throughout the Muslim world America’ s credibility has plummeted to an all-time low. The ferocity of the resistance in Iraq and Afghanistan has broken the back of the US army and forced President Bush to abandon his plans to advance democracy. Bush unable to extricate America from Iraq and Afghanistan has had to revert to the ‘Truman Doctrine’ and seek the help of secular autocracies like Syria, Iran and Pakistan. Instead of reshaping the Muslim world in America’ s image, the nefarious policies of the Bush administration has Islamised the region, politicized the Muslim masses to awaken from their spiritual slumber and galvanized the Muslim intelligentsia into a powerful force or political Islam— to sum up the last six years— it is suffice to say that America is precipitating the birth of the Caliphate.

在二十年主导世界事务之后,美国发现自己如今受制于其朋友与敌人。前美国国家情报委员会副主席格雷厄姆·富勒在最新一期《国家利益》杂志上撰文,准确地描述了美国的困境。他写道:“多个国家采取了多种战略与策略,旨在通过‘千刀万剐式的消耗’来削弱、转移、改变、复杂化、限制、拖延或阻挡布什的议程。”那么,当美国从世界唯一超级大国的宝座上跌落之后,将会发生什么?欧洲过于分裂,无法承担起领导国家的重任。俄罗斯尚未能将其经济实力转化为政治资本,从而确立自己首屈一指的地位。中国与印度则都缺乏发挥影响力所需的政治意愿和经验,无法左右世界政治。在可预见的未来,这两个国家都只能局限于各自的势力范围之内。

After two decades of dominating world affairs, America finds itself at the mercy of her friends and enemies. Graham Fuller, former vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council, described America’ s predicament correctly when he wrote in the latest issue of the National Interest, “diverse countries have deployed a multiplicity of strategies and tactics designed to weaken, divert, alter, complicate, limit, delay or block the Bush agenda through death by a thousand cuts.” So what happens after America has fallen from its perch as the world’ s sole super power? Europe is too divided to take up the mantle of the leading state. Russia has yet to translate her economic strength into political capital to position herself as the pre-eminent power. Both China and India lack the political will and the experience to affect world politics. For the foreseeable future, both countries will be confined to their respective spheres of influence.

要取代美国的国家必须拥有庞大的人口、丰富的资源、普世的意识形态以及成功的政治意愿。最明显的候选者是哈里发统治下的穆斯林世界,布什也经常谈及此事。

The country that wishes to supplant America must possess a huge population, abundant resources, a universal ideology and the political will to succeed. The most obvious candidate is the Muslim world under the Caliphate, which Bush has often spoken about.

2006年12月4日

December 4, 2006