“他们[伊朗人]还为‘持久自由行动’提供了相当大的协助。德黑兰提出允许美国运输机从伊朗东部的机场起飞，以支援阿富汗西部的行动。伊朗还同意为在伊朗上空跳伞的被击落美军飞行员执行搜救任务……伊朗人还与北方联盟接触，帮助其相信华盛顿是认真的，因此北方联盟应当全面参与美国的战争行动。”——肯尼思·波拉克 2008年9月15日，国际原子能机构报告称，伊朗曾多次阻挠联合国调查，而该调查旨在查明有关伊朗试图制造核武器的指控。该报告的结论再次被西方大国抓住，用来将伊朗描绘成一个流氓国家，以及对邻国的威胁。美国、法国、英国和以色列纷纷提出新一轮制裁的设想，认为应以此惩罚伊朗在其和平核计划问题上的顽固立场。

“They [Iranians] also provided considerable assistance to Operation Enduring Freedom. Tehran offered to allow American transport aircraft to stage from airfields in eastern Iran to assist operations in western Afghanistan. It agreed to perform searchand- rescue missions for downed American airmen who bailed over Iran...The Iranians weighed in with the Northern Alliance and helped convince it that Washington was deadly serious and that therefore the Northern Alliance should participate fully in the American war effort.” -- Kenneth Pollack n 15 September 2008 the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran had repeatedly blocked a UN investigation to probe allegations that it had tried to make nuclear weapons. The findings of the report were once again seized upon by Western powers to portray Iran as a pariah state and a menace to its neighbours. America, France, Britain and Israel have raised the spectre of a new set of sanctions to punish in their view Iran’ s intransigence over its peaceful nuclear programme.

白宫发言人戈登·琼德罗说:“我们敦促伊朗暂停其铀浓缩和后处理活动,否则将面临现有联合国安理会制裁的进一步实施以及新制裁的可能。”xii 法国外交部发言人埃里克·舍瓦利耶说:“在未来的几天和几周内,我们别无选择,只能朝着通过新的(联合国)安理会制裁决议的方向努力。”xiii 以色列总理办公室发言人马克·雷格夫说:“这又一次明确表明,伊朗政权正以欺骗政策与国际社会玩弄把戏。……现在国际社会有责任加大对德黑兰的施压。”xiv 另一方面,伊朗捍卫了其立场,并驳斥了美国关于其核计划和平性质的指控。

White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said, "We urge Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities or face further implementation of the existing United Nations Security Council sanctions and the possibility of new sanctions."xii French Foreign Ministry spokesman Eric Chevallier said, ”We have no other choice than to work in the days and weeks to come toward a new (UN) Security Council sanctions resolution”xiii. Israel’ s Prime Minister's Office spokesman Mark Regev said, “This is another clear signal that the Iranian regime is playing games with the international community with a policy of deception. … It is now incumbent upon the international community to ratchet up the pressure on Teheran."xiv Iran on the other hand defended its stance and rebuffed American claims about its peaceful nuclear programme.

“我们认为，不应该设立一个公开论坛，让美国每天提出一项新的指控并转交给该机构，并期望伊朗对任何指控作出回应，”议会国家安全与外交事务委员会主席阿拉丁·布鲁杰尔迪说道。

"We do not think there should be an open forum so America can bring up a new claim every day and pass it on to the agency, expecting Iran to address any claim," said Alaeddin Borujerdi, head of parliament's national security and foreign affairs commission.

伊朗有充分的理由感到愤怒。没有任何确凿证据表明伊朗拥有核武器计划。过去，若干享有盛誉的西方智库和情报机构曾明确表示，伊朗的核弹还要many年才能出现。 Correction to the above: the last phrase was an English word left in by mistake. The correct translation is: 伊朗有充分的理由感到愤怒。没有任何确凿证据表明伊朗拥有核武器计划。过去，若干享有盛誉的西方智库和情报机构曾明确表示，伊朗的核弹还要许多年才能研制成功。

Iran has every right to be angry. There is no tangible evidence that Iran has a nuclear weapons programme. A number of prestigious western think tanks and intelligence agencies in the past have unequivocally stated that Iranian nuclear bomb is many years away.

此外，国际原子能机构最近的报告强调，伊朗至少还需两年才能拥有足以制造一枚核弹的铀——即便如此，掌握这一过程也十分繁琐，许多观察人士预测还需要数年时间。

Furthermore, the recent IAEA report stresses that at the very least Iran is 2 years away before it will possess enough uranium to make a bomb—even then the process is tedious to master and many observers predict it will take years.

过去五年间，美伊关系的好战态势沿着一条早已走熟的轨迹发展，而围绕伊朗核计划的争执以及艾哈迈迪-内贾德的崛起，发挥了关键作用。

Over the past 5 years, the bellicose nature of U.S.-Iran relations have followed a well trodden trajectory, and the tiff over Iran’ s nuclear programme and the ascendency of Ahmadinejad has played a pivotal role.

也就是说,华盛顿和德黑兰的言辞激烈,与两者之间的秘密合作交织在一起,使美国得以巩固其在该地区的存在。伊拉克和阿富汗西部局势的平定、与海湾国家达成的新安全安排、推动在欧洲部署美国导弹防御计划的动力,都是美国决策者所获得的好处。即便到了现在,伊朗空军的演习、伊斯兰革命卫队保卫波斯湾的新职责以及美国海军的机动行动,也应放在这一背景下来看待。

That is to say fiery rhetoric employed by Washington and Tehran interwoven with covert collaboration between the two, has resulted in America consolidating its presence in the region. The pacifying of Iraq and Western Afghanistan, new security arrangements with the Gulf countries, impetus behind the deployment of U.S. missile shield programme in Europe are some of the benefits accrued by U.S. policy makers. Even now, Iranian air force exercises, the Revolutionary Guards new responsibility to defend the Persian Gulf and U.S. navy manoeuvres should be viewed within this context.

随着时间推移,美伊关系在幕后出现越来越多的迹象,显示两国关系正走向正常化。

Increasingly, behind the scenes there are growing signs that U.S.-Iranian relations are heading towards normalization.

威廉·伯恩斯在7月日内瓦会谈中的出席、美国在德黑兰设立外交代表机构的前景，以及奥巴马反复强调的对伊朗接触政策，都预示着双方关系正在回暖。

The presence of William Burns in the Geneva talks in July, the prospects of the establishment of a U.S. diplomatic mission in Tehran and Obama’ s repeated mantra of engagement with Iran signal a warming of relations.

周一,五位美国前国务卿——包括玛德琳·奥尔布赖特、科林·鲍威尔、沃伦·克里斯托弗、亨利·A·基辛格和小詹姆斯·A·贝克三世——呼吁加强与伊朗的接触。美国决策者面临的唯一障碍,是以色列坚持要消除伊朗所谓想象出来的核威胁。

On Monday, five former U.S. Secretaries of State among them Madeleine Albright, Colin Powell, Warren Christopher, Henry A. Kissinger and James A. Baker III called for greater engagement with Iran. The only sticking point for American policy makers is Israel’ s insistence on neutralizing Iran’ s imagined nuclear threat.

迄今为止，美国一直拒绝以色列进攻伊朗的提议。几个月前，以色列在地中海上空展示空中力量，美国对此轻描淡写；美国也拒绝向以色列出售威力强大的GBU-29型钻地炸弹。

Hitherto, America has snubbed Israeli advances to attack Iran. America played down Israel’ s show of air power over the Mediterranean a few months ago, and has refused to sell the powerful GBU-29 bunker-busters bombs.

尽管如此，美国决定出售GBU-39小型炸弹，是为了安抚以色列的担忧。

Nonetheless, the decision to sell GBU-39 bomb a smaller version is America’ s way of assuaging Israel’ s concerns.

随着布什政府陷入竞选热潮，美国与伊朗开战的可能性不大。事实上，更可能出现的情况恰恰相反——美国与伊朗之间的关系有望回暖。

With the Bush administration embroiled in election fever, it is unlikely that the U.S. will be at war with Iran. In fact the opposite is likely to happen—warming of ties between the U.S. and Iran is on the cards.

2008年9月21日

September 21, 2008