"Babu wani shugaban Amurka a tarihi da ya taba samun irin wannan dangantaka ta kut-da-kut da wata kasar waje—kuma ina nufin shugabannin Bush biyu—... muna da yarjejeniya da Saudiyya a cikin dangantakar da ta kai shekara 40...

“Never before in history has a president of the United States— and I'm really referring to both President Bushes—has had such a close relationship with another foreign power... we had a pact with Saudi Arabia in a relationship that's gone back 40 years...

"Muna samun mai, muna sayar musu da makamai, kuma wani ɓangare na yarjejeniyar shi ne mun ƙi duba sosai abin da ainihi ke faruwa a Saudiyya." -- Craig Unger A ranar 25 ga Afrilu, 2005, Yarima mai jiran gado Abdullah ya ziyarci George Bush don tattaunawa kan batutuwa da dama, tun daga tsarin zaman lafiya a Gabas ta Tsakiya har zuwa yaƙi da ta'addanci. Sai dai babban abin da ya kawo ziyarar Abdullah shi ne gabatar wa Shugaba Bush sabon shawara ta ƙara yawan man fetur na Saudiyya, wanda zai taimaka wajen sauƙaƙa matsin lamba kan farashin ɗanyen mai.

we get oil, we sell them weapons, and part of the pact was we didn't look too closely at what was really going on in Saudi Arabia.” -- Craig Ugnar n April 25 2005, Crown Prince Abdullah visited George Bush to discuss a number of issues ranging from the Middle East peace process to fighting terrorism. However, the centrepiece of Abdullah’ s visit was to present President Bush with a fresh proposal to boost Saudi oil production that would go some way towards easing pressure on the price of crude oil.

An wannan ziyara an shirya ta da kyau domin ta dace da sanarwar da Bush ya yi game da sabuwar dabarar makamashi, don kwantar da hankalin kamfanonin mai da talakawan Amurka, waɗanda ke ganin cewa manufar gwamnatinsa kan man fetur tana tangal-tangal kuma tana cutar da tattalin arzikin Amurka.

The visit was carefully scripted to coincide with Bush’ s announcement of a new energy strategy to counter growing concerns amongst oil companies and ordinary Americans that the administration’ s oil policy was faltering and hurting the US economy.

Sukar daga kamfanonin mai ta samo asali ne daga rashin ci gaba da aka samu wajen tabbatar da man fetur din Iraki. Duk da cewa an sadaukar da dala biliyan 1.6

Criticism from oil companies has been fuelled by the lack of progress made in securing Iraq’ s oil. Despite devoting $1.6

…biliyan na taimakon Majalisar Dokokin Amurka don bunkasa kayayyakin more rayuwa na man fetur a Iraki, amma Iraki na ci gaba da samar da mai da kashi 25 cikin 100 kasa da matakin farkon shekarar 2003, kafin mamayar Amurka don hambarar da Saddam Hussein. Tawayen jama'a a Iraki ya rage kwararar man zuwa digo kadan. Lalata bututun mai zuwa Turkiyya ya takaita fitar da mai daga yankin arewa, kusa da Kirkuk, kuma tashin hankali ya hana kokarin zamanantar da manyan fagen mai na kudu. Sakamakon haka, Iraki ta fitar da ganga miliyan 1.43 na danyen mai a watan jiya, wato an rage ganga 30,000 idan aka kwatanta da watan Maris. Wannan kuwa ba ya kusa da ganga miliyan 4 da wasu masana suka yi hasashe bayan yakin.

billion of Congressional aid to develop Iraqi oil infrastructure, Iraq is still producing 25 percent lower than levels in early 2003, before the U.S. invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. The popular Iraqi insurgency has reduced the flow of oil to a trickle. The sabotage of a pipeline to Turkey has restricted exports from Iraq's northern fields, around Kirkuk, and violence has hampered efforts to modernize the larger southern fields. The result is that Iraq exported 1.43 million barrels of crude oil last month, down 30,000 barrels from March. This is nowhere near the 4 million barrels forecasted by some analysts in the aftermath of the war.

Bugu da ƙari, shugabannin kamfanonin man fetur na Amurka sun ƙara yin fushi da masu ra'ayin neo-conservative, waɗanda suke zarginsu da ƙarfafa tawaye a Iraki ta hanyar mayar da masana'antar man fetur ta Iraki ta masu zaman kansu, maimakon mayar da ita ta ƙasa. Shirin mayar da man fetur na Iraki ƙarƙashin ikon ƙasa, wanda masana'antar man fetur ta Amurka ta gabatar, an maye gurbinsa a minti na ƙarshe da wani shirin masu ra'ayin neo-conservative na mayar da man fetur na Iraki ga masu zaman kansu da kuma lalata OPEC.

In addition, US oil executives have been further aggrieved by the neo-conservatives whom they blame for encouraging the insurgency through the privatization of Iraq’ s oil industry as opposed to its re-nationalization. The plan to nationalize Iraqi oil, which was put forward by the US oil industry, was superseded at the last minute by a neoconservative plan to privatize Iraq’ s oil and destroy OPEC.

A cikin rikicin da ya biyo bayan zamanin bayan Saddam, an hana kamfanonin man fetur na Amurka yin amfani da filayen man Iraki, lamarin da ya kawo cikas ga ƙoƙarinsu na ƙara yawan man da Iraki ke samarwa.

In the ensuing chaos of the post Saddam era, the US oil companies were prevented from exploiting Iraq’ s oil fields thereby hindering their efforts to increase Iraqi oil supply.

Rashin yin aiki da filayen man fetur na Iraƙi babban koma-baya ne ga kamfanonin man fetur na Amurka. A cewar Ma'aikatar Makamashi ta Amurka, kuɗin fara samar da sabon mai a Iraƙi na cikin mafi ƙasƙanci a duniya. Har yanzu, filaye 15 kawai daga cikin 74 ne aka bunƙasa; ajiyar mai da aka sani ta kai ganga biliyan 112, amma wasu na hasashen cewa zai iya wuce ganga biliyan 300. Tare da yawan dawo da mai na kashi 50

Failure to work with Iraq’ s oil fields was a huge blow to American oil companies. According to the United States Department of Energy the costs of bringing new production on line in Iraq are among the lowest in the world. As of yet only 15 of its 74 fields have been developed; known reserves are 112 billion barrels, but some predict it may turn out to exceed 300 billion barrels. With recovery rates of 50

kashi bisa dari da kuma ajiyar ganga biliyan 250, man fetur na Iraki zai iya zama darajarsa fiye da dala tiriliyan 3.

per cent and reserves of 250 billion barrels, Iraqi oil could be worth more than $3 trillion.

A gida, masu sayen kaya sun sha wahala sosai saboda tashin farashin man fetur a famfo, kuma yawancin su na zargin Bush da yawancin matsalolin makamashin Amurka. Wani sabon bincike na Associated Press-AOL ya nuna cewa jama'a ba su yaba da yadda shugaban ya tafiyar da matsalolin makamashi ba, inda kashi 62 cikin ɗari suka nuna rashin amincewarsu. 'Yan Democrat sun yi amfani da ƙarancin amincewar da jama'a ke yi masa wajen jaddada cewa gwamnatin Bush ba ta yi kusan komai ba don kubutar da jama'ar da ke cikin wahala daga tsadar man fetur. "Bayan shekaru biyar, Amurkawa da ke shan wahala saboda farashin gas mafi tsada da aka taɓa gani har yanzu suna jiran shugaban ya cika alƙawarinsa na matsa wa OPEC lamba," in ji Sanata John Kerry.

On the domestic front, consumers have had to put up with soaring gas prices at the pump and blame Bush for much of America’ s energy woes. A recent Associated Press-AOL poll found the public giving the president low marks for his handling of energy problems, with 62 percent saying they disapproved. The democrats have seized on the poor approval ratings to drive home the point that the Bush administration has done next to nothing to rescue the beleaguered public from high oil prices. “Five years later, and Americans suffering under record-high gas prices are still waiting to see the president keep his promise to jawbone OPEC,”ix said Senator John Kerry.

Gwamnatin Bush, ganin yadda suka fuskanci ƙaruwar suka, ta amsa ta hanyar cire masu tasiri masu ra'ayin neoconservative kamar Wolfowitz da Bolton daga aikin tsara manufofi zuwa aikin aiwatar da su. Haka kuma gwamnatin ta nemi Saudiyya da ta fito da wani shiri da zai ƙara ƙarfin samar da man fetur sosai. Shirin da Ministan Man Fetur na Saudiyya, Ali Naimi, ya zayyana kafin ziyarar Abdullah zuwa Texas, ya nuna cewa za a kashe dala biliyan 50 cikin shekaru biyar domin ƙara ƙarfin samar da man Saudiyya zuwa ganga miliyan 12.5 a kowace rana nan da shekarar 2009, daga iyakar yanzu ta ganga miliyan 11. Idan ya zama dole, Saudiyya ta ce a ƙarshe za ta iya samun ƙarfin ganga miliyan 15 a kowace rana. Mashawarcin Tsaro na Ƙasa na Amurka, Stephen Hadley, ya bayyana shirin Saudiyya a matsayin babban ci gaba. Ya ce: "Abin da ya fito fili shi ne shirin ƙara samar da man ta hanyar zuba jari mai yawa — kusan dala biliyan 50 a cikin lokaci. Don haka babban shiri ne da suka ɗauka." Duk da wannan babban jari da zai taimaka wa tattalin arzikin Amurka, Saudiyya ta kuma shirya bai wa kamfanonin makamashi na Amurka babbar dama ta hanyar gayyatar su su zuba jari a sauran fannonin makamashi na Saudiyya. Yayin da yake jawabi ga ’yan kasuwar Amurka waɗanda Majalisar Kasuwanci ta Saudiyya da Amurka (SABC) ta shirya a Otal ɗin Fairmont, Yarima Abdullah ya sanar da niyyarsa ta karɓar baƙunci taron Dandalin Makamashi na Duniya (IEF) a kwata na ƙarshe na shekarar 2005. Ya ce: "Muna gayyatarku da ku ci gaba da haɗin kai da mu a harkokin hakar ma'adinai da iskar gas, waɗanda ke ba da damammaki da dama na saka hannun jari. Akwai damammaki da yawa kuma nasara tabbatacciya ce, in Allah Ya yarda." Ya kara da cewa: "Kuna iya zaɓar saka hannun jari kai tsaye ko kafa ayyukan haɗin gwiwa." Yarima Mai Jiran Gado Abdullah kuma yana shirin sauƙaƙa wa 'yan kasuwar Amurka fitar da dukiya daga ƙasar ta hanyar ba da shawarar sassauta dokokin da ke kare tattalin arzikin Saudiyya mai tasowa. "Yayin da yake magana game da sauye-sauyen tattalin arziki, Abdullah ya ce, 'Mun kafa dokar haraji mai bayyananne kuma mai sassauci, mun sake tsara kasuwar hada-hadar kudi domin ta dace da ka'idojin duniya, kuma mun hanzarta aiwatar da shirin mayar da kamfanonin gwamnati na mallakar masu zaman kansu.' A bayyane yake cewa Amurkawa ne za su zama ainihin masu amfana da shirin Abdullah. Da farko, Saudiyya za ta kashe dala biliyan 50 domin ƙara samar da man fetur danye, kawai don ta cika kasuwar man fetur ta duniya, farashinsa ya ragu. Wannan zai rage ribar Saudiyya sosai kuma ya lalata tattalin arzikin ƙasar matuƙar lalacewa. A ɗaya ɓangaren kuma, arha ta man fetur danye za ta zama alheri ga tattalin arzikin Amurka, wanda a yanzu yake fama da tsadar man fetur."

The Bush administration faced with the growing tide of criticism has responded by removing influential neoconservatives like Wolfowitz and Bolton away from policy making to policy execution. The administration has also asked the Saudi’ s to come up with a plan that dramatically increases its oil production capacity. The plan outlined by Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi before Abdullah’ s visit to Texas, proposes to spend $50 billion over a five–year period to increase Saudi production capacity to 12.5 million barrels per day by 2009 from the current 11 million limit. If necessary, Saudi Arabia says it will eventually develop a capacity of 15 million barrels a day. US National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley described the Saudi plan as a major breakthrough. He said, “What really came was a plan for increasing production through substantial investment — to the tune of about $50 billion over time. So it's a major initiative that they've undertaken."x Notwithstanding this huge investment to supplement America’ s economy, the Saudi’ s also plan to give US energy companies a huge bonanza by inviting them to invest in Saudi Arabia’ s other energy sectors. Addressing an audience of American businessmen organized by the Saudi-American Business Council (SABC) at the Fairmont Hotel, Prince Abdullah announced his intention to host a conference of the International Energy Forum (IEF) in the last quarter of 2005. He said, “We invite you to continue to cooperate with us in the mining and gas sectors which offer a number of investment opportunities. There are many opportunities and success is guaranteed, God willing. You can choose direct investment or establish joint projects.” Crown Prince Abdullah also plans to make it easier for American businessmen to take wealth out of the country by proposing to relax the laws protecting the fledging Saudi economy. Speaking about the economic reforms, Abdullah said, “We have enacted a clear and flexible taxation law, reorganized the financial market so that it matches international standards and have expedited the privatization process.” Clearly the Americans will be the real beneficiaries of Abdullah’ s plan. Firstly, the Saudi’ s will spend $50 billion to increase the production of crude oil only to flood the international oil market and have its price reduced. This will sharply diminish Saudi profits and significantly damage the country’ s economy. On the other hand, cheap crude oil will be a godsend to the American economy, which at present is reeling from high oil prices.

Na biyu, Saudiyawa za ta biya kamfanonin man fetur na Amurka biliyoyin daloli domin su gudanar da ayyukan da ake bukata don kara karfin samar da mai. Hakan ba zai haifar da canja wurin fasaha ba, kuma ba zai samar da isassun ayyukan yi da zai rage yawan marasa aikin yi a Saudiyya ba, wanda ke ta karuwa. A yanzu, yawan marasa aikin yi ya kai kashi 20 cikin dari (ainihin adadin na iya kaiwa kashi 30 cikin dari). Amma wannan adadin na iya kara karuwa, la'akari da cewa yawan al'ummar Saudiyya zai ninka daga miliyan 20 zuwa miliyan 40 nan da shekara ta 2020. Saboda haka, fatan 'yan Saudiyya na samun aikin yi a nan gaba ba shi da kyau sosai.

Secondly, the Saudi’ s will be paying American oil companies billions of dollars to carry out the necessary work to increase the capacity of oil production. It will neither result in transfer of technology nor create sufficient jobs to lessen Saudi Arabia’ s burgeoning unemployment figures. At present, the unemployment rate is at 20% (the real figure could be as high as 30%). But this figure could increase even further, given that the Saudi population is going to double from 20 million to 40 million by 2020. Hence the outlook for Saudi’ s seeking employment in the near future looks extremely bleak.

Na uku, shirin mayar da kadarorin gwamnati ga 'yan kasuwa tare da sassaucin dokokin haraji zai sa wasu daga cikin muhimman kadarorin Saudiyya, kamar Kamfanin Sadarwa na Saudiyya (Saudi Telecom Company), su koma hannun Amurkawa. Haka kuma, da sunan samar da ingantattun ayyukan jama'a, kamfanonin Amurka na kasa-da-kasa za su caji farashi mai tsada, su kuma samu riba mai yawa, wanda kadan ne daga cikinsa zai koma cikin tattalin arzikin Saudiyya. Yawancin ribar za a mayar da ita Amurka, yayin da wani sashe kuma zai shiga asusun ajiyar kudi na ketare na wasu sarakunan Saudiyya.

Thirdly, the privatization drive coupled with loose taxation laws will result in American ownership of some of Saudi Arabia’ s vital assets like the Saudi Telecom Company. In addition, under the pretext of providing better public services, the American multinationals will charge higher prices and generate huge profits, very little of which will be ploughed back into the Saudi economy. Most of it will be repatriated back to the US, whilst some of it will end up in the foreign accounts of Saudi princes.

Na huɗu, kodayake cinikayyar juna tsakanin Saudiyya da Amurka ta karu daga ƙaramin adadin dala miliyan 160 a shekarar 1970 zuwa dala biliyan 26 a shekarar 2004, al'ummar Saudiyya a wannan lokacin sun ƙara talauci. A shekarar 1999, kuɗin shiga na kowane mutum (GDP) ya yi ƙasa da yadda yake a shekarar 1965, kafin babban tashin farashin man fetur. Don haka, ta hanyar gayyatar Amurkawa su saka jari a wasu madogaran makamashi, Abdullah yana miƙa makomar al'ummar Saudiyya ga bautar Amurka.

Fourthly, though the bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia and the US has increased from a measly sum of $160 million in 1970 to $26 billion in 2004, the Saudi people during this period have become increasingly poor. In 1999, the per capita GDP was less than it was in 1965, before the massive rise in oil prices. So by inviting the Americans to invest in other energy reserves, Abdullah is signing away the future of the Saudi people to American slavery.

Ba abin mamaki ba ne, gwamnatin Bush ta karɓi shirin Abdullah, ta kuma haɗa shi a cikin sabuwar dabarar makamashinta. Wannan ya ƙunshi mayar da sansanonin soja zuwa matatun mai, neman hanyoyin cire man fetur daga ajiyar Amurka, da kuma binciko man fetur mai tsafta.

Not surprisingly, the Bush administration embraced Abdullah’ s plan and included it, as part of their revitalized energy strategy. This consists of turning military bases into oil refineries, exploring ways of tapping US oil reserves and exploring cleaner fuels.

Saboda haka, a lokacin da Bush ya bayyana sabon tsarinsa na makamashi, ya yi nasarar rage farashin ɗanyen mai. Wannan ya bayyana dalilin ziyarar Abdullah zuwa Texas, kuma Mai ba da shawara kan tsaron ƙasa, Stephen Headley, ya tabbatar da hakan, inda ya ce, "Matsalar da ke kasuwar mai yanzu ita ce ra'ayin cewa karfin samarwa bai isa ba." Tabbacin da za a iya bai wa kasuwa game da samuwar mai, in ji shi, ya kamata "ya matsa lamba don rage farashi." Maganar Hadley kuma tana nuna cewa wannan tabbaci yana da sauyi sosai. Abu mai yawa ya dogara ne da ikon gwamnatin Bush wajen shawo kan adawa daga masu kare muhalli da sauran ƙungiyoyin matsin lamba waɗanda ke adawa da hako mai a wurare irin su Alaska, da kuma mayar da sansanonin soja da ake da su zuwa matatun mai.

Therefore, when Bush unveiled his rejuvenated energy policy, he succeeded in pushing down the price of crude oil. This explains the reason behind Abdullah’ s visit to Texas and was confirmed by National Security Adviser Stephen Headley who said, "The problem in the oil market now is a perception that there is inadequate capacity." Reassurance that can be given to the market on available supply, he said, should "have a downward pressure on the price." Hadley’ s statement also alludes to the fickle nature of this reassurance. Much is dependent upon the Bush administration’ s ability to overcome resistance from environmentalists and other pressure groups who are opposed to the drilling for oil in places like Alaska and also to the conversion of existing military bases into oil refineries.

A cikin wannan mahallin, dabarar makamashin Bush dabara ce ta kariya.

In this respect, Bush’ s energy strategy is a defensive one.

Bayan gazawarsu a Iraq, gwamnatin Amurka ta tilasta bincika hanyoyin ƙara yawan man fetur da ake haƙowa a cikin ƙasar.

Having failed in Iraq, the administration has been forced into exploring ways to boost the domestic output of US oil.

Yayin da hunturu ke gabatowa kuma OPEC na ci gaba da fitar da man fetur a iyakar yawansa, fadar White House na cikin tseren neman hanyoyin dakile rikicin da ke tafe.

With winter approaching and OPEC pumping oil to its maximum, the race is on in the White House to find ways to stymie the next crisis.

Amma, halin da Amurka ke ciki a yanzu yana ba da dama mai kyau ga Saudiyawa su 'yantar da al'ummarsu daga mulkin mallaka na Amurka. Da ace gidan Al Saud sun kasance masu gaskiya a kan wannan, da sun iya amfani da dabaru da dama don yanke dogaronsu ga Amurka.

However, America’ s current predicament presents an ideal opportunity for the Saudi’ s to free their people from American hegemony. Had the House of Saud been sincere about this, they could have employed number of strategies to sever their dependency on the US.

Saudiyawa za su iya dakatar da samar da man fetur danye, su cire shi daga dalar Amurka su sayar da shi da kudi kamar Euro ko Yuan (kudin kasar Sin). Hakan zai tilasta duniya ta sayar da dalar da sauri domin samun kudin musaya da Saudiyya ta fi so. Irin wannan mataki zai kuma tilasta manyan kasashe kamar Turai, musamman kasar Sin wadda take da sabani mai tsanani da Amurka, su yi tsayayya da duk wani shiri na Amurka a kan Saudiyya.

The Saudi’ s could have cut the supply of crude oil, decoupled it from the dollar and sold it in currency like the Euro or the Yuan (Chinese currency). This would force the world to quickly sell the dollar in return for the Saudi’ s preferred currency of exchange. A move like this would also force powers like Europe and especially China, a country that has sharp differences with the US to counter any US manoeuvres against Saudi Arabia.

Masarautar Saudiyya kuma za ta iya musayar wani ɓangare na man fetur ɗinta da fasaha da masana'antu masu nauyi, ta haka za a rage dogaro da ma'aikatan waje tare da samar da sabbin ayyukan yi. Ta wannan hanya, Saudiyya za ta iya karkatar da tattalin arzikinta zuwa turbar dogaro da kai da wadata ta fuskar tattalin arziki.

The Saudi’ s could also barter some of their oil in exchange for technology and heavy industry thereby reducing dependency on foreign workers and creating new jobs. In this way the Saudi’ s could steer their economy towards a path of self–sufficiency and economic prosperity.

Yana da matukar wuya Abdullah da gidan Saud su zabi irin wadannan ra'ayoyi masu tsatsauran ra'ayi, domin wanzuwarsu ya dogara ne da goyon bayan Anglo-Amurka.

It is very unlikely that Abdullah and the House of Saud would opt for such radical ideas, as their very existence depends upon Anglo-American support.

Ba za a iya bin waɗannan ra'ayoyin ba sai a cikin yanayin da ba shi da wakilan Anglo-Amurka waɗanda ke mamaye gwamnatin Saudiyya. Khalifanci ne kaɗai zai iya samar da yanayin da al'ummar Saudiyya za su more 'yancin kai na siyasa da cikakken ikon tattalin arziki ba tare da ikon ƙasashen waje ba.

These ideas can only be pursued in an environment that is free from Anglo-American surrogates who dominate the Saudi regime. Only the Caliphate can produce an environment where the Saudi’ s can enjoy political independence and economic sovereignty free from foreign control.

10 ga Mayu, 2005

May 10, 2005