"65% suna son haɗa dukkan ƙasashen Musulunci zuwa ƙasa ɗaya ta Musulunci ko Khalifanci." -- WorldPublicOpinion.org Ba da daɗewa ba, Shugaba Bush ya sanar da shirinsa mai yawan buƙata, wato Shirin Babban Gabas ta Tsakiya, a matsayin wani ɓangare na yaƙinsa na duniya a kan ta'addanci. Manufar shirin ita ce kiyaye tsarin gwamnati marar addini da ake da shi a yankin ta hanyar inganta 'yanci da dimokuradiyya. Amma a cikin al'ummomin Gabas ta Tsakiya na yau, shirin Bush yana haifar da akasin hakan. Masu kishin Musulunci a dukkan yankin sun nuna riba mara misaltuwa a zaɓukan baya-bayan nan, kuma yanzu suna kalubalantar kai tsaye mulkin kama-karya da sarautun da ke bunƙasa a ƙarƙashin kariyar Amurka.

“65% want to unify all Islamic counties into a single Islamic state or Caliphate.” -- WorldPublicOpinion.org Not so long ago, President Bush announced his much coveted Greater Middle East Initiative as part of his global war on terrorism. The aim of the plan was to preserve the existing secular order across the region through the promotion of freedom and democracy. But in today’ s Middle Eastern societies, Bush’ s initiative is having just the opposite effect. Islamists throughout the region have shown unprecedented gains in recent elections and now pose a direct challenge to the dictatorships and monarchies that thrive under American patronage.

A lokacin zaben majalisar dokoki na Masar a shekarar 2005, 'yan'uwa Musulmi sun samu kashi 20% na kujerun. Da ba don gwamnatin Mubarak ta yi amfani da tsoratarwa a zagaye na biyu da na uku na zaben ba, adadin zai kasance mai yawa fiye da haka. Amma duk da tsananin matakan da gwamnatin ta dauka don murkushe masu kishin Islama, 'yan'uwa Musulmi sun yi amfani da taken 'Musulunci ita ce mafita', kuma sun fi abokan hamayyarsu na boko samun goyon bayan masu zabe a Masar. A zaben majalisar dokokin Iraki na shekarar 2005, jam'iyyun addini ne suka samu mafi yawan kuri'un Iraqi. Daga cikin kujeru 275 na Majalisar Wakilai, kawancen Hadin Kan Iraki, wanda 'yan Shi'a ke rinjaye a cikinsa, ya samu kujeru 128. Kawancen ya kunshi Jam'iyyar Da'awa wadda Firayim Minista Ibrahim al-Ja'afari ke jagoranta, da Majalisar Koli ta Juyin Juya Halin Musulunci a Iraki, wadda Abdul Aziz al-Hakim ke jagoranta. Kawancen ya gaza samun rinjayen kujeru gaba daya da kuri'u 10. 'Yan Sunna masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na Hadaddiyar Yarjejeniyar Iraki sun samu kujeru 44, yayin da masu kishin Islama na Kurdawa suka samu 5.

During Egypt’ s parliamentary elections in 2005, the Muslim Brotherhood secured 20%xxii of the seats. Had not Mubarak’ s regime resorted to intimidation in the second and third rounds of the balloting, the figure would have been much higher. But despite the regimes brutal tactics to suppress the Islamists, the Muslim Brotherhood employed the slogan ‘Islam is the solution’ and outperformed secular rivals in garnering greater support amongst Egypt’ s electorate. In the Iraqi parliamentary elections of 2005, the religious parties took the bulk of the Iraqi votes. Of 275 seats in the Council of Representatives, the Shia dominated United Iraqi Alliance won 128 seats. The alliance includes the Dawa Party led by Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. The alliance fell 10 votes short of an absolute majority. The Sunni fundamentalists of the Iraqi Accord Front secured 44 seats, while Kurdish Islamists took 5

kujerun da aka ba su. Idan Amurka da wakilanta ba su shiga cikin harkar zaben kai tsaye ba, to da ƙuri'ar masu kishin Musulunci ta kaɗa ta kawar da masu akidar kin addini gaba ɗaya. Duk da haka, Majalisar Wakilan Iraki za ta kasance ƙarƙashin wakilai masu tsananin kishin addini, kuma ana sa ran za su kawar da manufofin da suke ganin suna da tsantsar akidar kin addini. Sakamakon zaɓen Falasɗinu da aka shirya yi a ranar 25 ga Janairu, 2006 da alama zai yi kama da sakamakon zaɓen Masar da na Iraki.

seats. Had not America and her surrogates interfered directly in the electoral process, the strength of the Islamists’ vote would have completely marginalized the secularists. In any case, the Iraqi Council of Representatives will be dominated by representatives who have a strong religious disposition and are expected to throw out policies which they deem to be overtly secular. The outcome of the Palestinian election scheduled for January 25 2006 will probably mimic the election results of Egypt and Iraq.

Masu binciken ra'ayin jama'a sun riga sun yi hasashen babbar nasara ga Hamas, wanda ke adawa da Isra'ila sosai kuma ya yi alkawarin lalata ta.

Already pollsters are predicting a strong showing for Hamas which is avidly anti-Israeli and has vowed its destruction.

Hamas tana tsayar da 'yan takara 62, kuma ana hasashen za ta samu sama da kashi ɗaya bisa uku na kujerun 132 da ake da su a Majalisar Dokokin Falasɗinu. Barazanar Isra'ila na hana ƙungiyar shiga zaɓen da kuma rashin son Amurka ga tsayayyen matsayinta sun ƙara farin jinin ƙungiyar. Banda Fatah, sauran jam'iyyun sakulare ba za su iya kalubalantar karuwar tasirin Hamas da sauran masu kishin Musulunci yadda ya kamata ba. Fatah, wadda ke fama da rikice-rikicen cikin gida kuma ana ganinta a matsayin mai cin hanci da rashawa, ita ce za ta fi yin asara.

Hamas fielding 62 candidates is projected to take more than a third of the 132 seats available in the Palestinian Legislative Council. Threats from Israel to preclude the organisation from contesting the election and America’ s dislike of its hard-line stance have boosted the group’ s popularity. Apart from Fatah, the other secular party’ s cannot mount an effective challenge to the growing influence of Hamas and other Islamists. Fatah reeling from internal schisms and widely viewed as being corrupt will be the main looser.

Mulkin da ake gani a zaɓuka na masu tsatsauran ra'ayin Musulunci suna fin ƙarfin masu akidar boye addini (secularists) yana maimaituwa a wasu ƙasashen Larabawa. Misali, a zaɓen kananan hukumomi na Saudiyya a bara, masu tsatsauran ra'ayin Musulunci sun lashe kujeru 6 cikin 7 a Riyadh, kuma sun yi nasara a zaɓukan Jeddah da Makkah baki ɗaya. 'Yan takarar da ƙungiyoyin Sunni masu tsatsauran ra'ayin Musulunci ke goyon baya sun kuma samu iko da majalissun kananan hukumomi a wasu garuruwa na Lardin Gabas. A zaɓen 'yan majalisar dokoki na Yemen na shekarar 2003, Ƙungiyar Gyara ta Yemen (Islah), haɗin gwiwar abubuwan tsatsauran ra'ayin Musulunci da na kabilu, ta samu kujeru 46 cikin 301, kuma yanzu ita ce 'yar adawa. A wannan shekarar, masu tsatsauran ra'ayin Musulunci sun haɗa kai suka lashe kujeru 17 cikin 50 a majalisar dokokin Kuwait, inda suke zama ƙungiyar akida mafi rinjaye. A Jordan, Bahrain da Morocco ma, masu tsatsauran ra'ayin Musulunci sun samu ci gaba, sau da yawa a kan kudin masu akidar boye addini (secularists)xxiii.

The pattern of Islamists outshining secularists in elections is being repeated elsewhere in the Arab world. For instance in the Saudi municipal elections last year, Islamists won 6 of the 7 seats in Riyadh and swept the elections in Jeddah and Makkah. Candidates backed by Sunni Islamists also won control of the municipal councils in a number of towns in the Eastern Province. In the 2003 parliamentary election in Yemen, the Yemeni Reform Group (Islah), a combination of Islamist and tribal elements, won 46 of the 301 seats and now forms the opposition. That year, Islamists combined to win 17 of the 50 seats in the Kuwaiti parliament, where they form the dominant ideological bloc. In Jordan, Bahrain and Morocco too, Islamists have made gains often at the expense of secularistsxxiii.

Kasancewar Islamawa a ko'ina da kuma saurin raguwar masu akidar boye addini daga harkokin mulki sun canza yanayin siyasa a duniyar Larabawa. Alamu na farko sun nuna cewa wannan sauyi zai dore har abada. Bisa ga binciken ra'ayi na Zogby International-Sadat Chair na shekarar 2004, daga cikin wadanda aka tambaya a Jordan, Saudiyya da Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa, sun ce malaman addini ya kamata su taka rawa mafi girma a tsarin siyasarsu.

The ubiquitous presence of Islamists and the rapid decline of the secularists have altered the political landscape of the Arab world. Early indications suggest that this transformation is going to be permanent. According to the 2004 Zogby International-Sadat Chair poll, of those surveyed in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE said the clergy should play a greater role in their political systems.

Kashi hamsin cikin dari na Masarawa da aka tambaya sun ce malamai bai kamata su yi umarni a kan tsarin siyasa ba, amma har kashi 47 cikin dari sun goyi bayan a ba su babbar rawa. Don haka yanayin siyasa a bayyane yake: yayin da duniyar Larabawa ke kara zama ta dimokuradiyya, haka nan yiwuwar Islamawa su hau mulki ke karuwa.xxiv

Fifty percent of Egyptians polled said the clerics should not dictate the political system, but as many as 47 percent supported a greater role for them. So the political trend is clear; more democratic the Arab world gets, the more likely it is that Islamists will come to powerxxiv.

Ba wai kawai yunkurin Bush na kawo dimokuraɗiyya a Gabas ta Tsakiya ya ƙarfafa siyasar Musulunci ba, har ma ya kasa dakatar da igiyar Musulunci mai tsattsauran ra'ayi, wadda ke ƙara tsananta kowace rana.

Not only has Bush’ s democracy drive in the Middle East strengthened political Islam it has also failed to stymie the tide of militant Islam which grows more violent by the day.

A cikin Afrilu na 2005, Ma'aikatar Harkokin Wajen Amurka ta yanke shawarar dakatar da buga rahoton shekara-shekara kan ta'addancin duniya, bayan da cibiyar yaki da ta'addanci ta gwamnati ta kammala cewa an samu hare-haren ta'addanci fiye da kowace shekara tun 1985, shekarar farko da wallafar ta rufe, a shekarar 2004. Wani abin da wannan shiri ya haifar kuma shi ne asarar yakin zuciya da tunani. A cewar binciken Zogby na 2005 kan ra'ayoyin larabawa game da Amurka, kashi 63 cikin 100 na mutanen Jordan, kashi 85 cikin 100 na mutanen Masar, kashi 89 cikin 100 na mutanen Saudiyya, kashi 66 cikin 100 na mutanen Lebanon, da kashi 69 cikin 100 na mutanen Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa suna da ra'ayi mara kyau game da Amurka.

In April 2005, the US State Department decided to stop publishing an annual report on international terrorism after the government's top terrorism centre concluded that there were more terrorist attacks in 2004 than in any year since 1985, the first year the publication covered. Another casualty of this initiative has been the battle of hearts and minds. According to the 2005 Zogby poll on Arab attitudes towards America, 63% of Jordanians, 85 % of Egyptians, 89% of Saudis, 66% of Lebanese, and 69% of the people in UAE had an unfavourable opinion of America.

Faɗuwar shirin Bush na inganta dimokuraɗiyya a Gabas ta Tsakiya bai kuɓuce wa idanun masu tsara manufofi a ƙasarsu ba. An samu takaddama mai zafi tsakanin masu goyon bayan Bush da masu sukar shirinsa. Masu adawa da shirin nasa suna cewa Bush bai yi isasshen ƙoƙari ba wajen ware masu tsattsauran ra'ayin Musulunci da kuma ɗaga muryar masu matsakaicin ra'ayi a matsayin wani ɓangare na turawar dimokuraɗiyya a Gabas ta Tsakiya. Suna kuma ikirarin cewa ba za a iya amincewa da masu tsattsauran ra'ayin Musulunci ba, musamman waɗanda suke adawa da Amurka sosai, don haka dole ne a keɓe su daga gwajin dimokuraɗiyyar. Ra'ayinsu ya dogara ne akan tunanin cewa ƙin da duniyar Musulmi take yi na karɓar ɗabi'un Yammacin Duniya yana da alaƙa da akidar Musulunci. A ra'ayinsu, sai an sauya nassosin Musulunci ta hanyar asali kafin duniyar Larabawa ta samu karɓuwa daga Yamma.

The collapse of Bush’ s plan to advance democracy in the Middle East has not escaped the attention of policy makers back home. A bitter dispute has broken out between supporters of Bush and the critics of his plan. The opponents of his plan argue that Bush is not doing enough to isolate the Islamists and promote the moderates as part of the democracy push in the Middle East. They also maintain that Islamists, especially those that are vociferously anti- American cannot be trusted and must be excluded from the democracy experiment. Their view is based on the idea that the refusal of the Muslim world to accept western values lies with the ideology of Islam. In their opinion the Islamic texts have to fundamentally change before the Arab world can be accepted by the West.

Masu goyon bayan wannan ra'ayi, a daya bangaren, suna goyon bayan wata hanya ta dabaru. Sun yi imani cewa ta hanyar jawo masu kishin Musulunci cikin tsarin dimokuradiyya, za a iya tsara yankin Larabawa ya zama wuri da zai karɓi dabi'un Yammacin Turai, ya zama ba shi da kiyayya ga Amurka sosai, kuma ya karɓi mamayar Amurka da yardar rai. Imaninsu ya dogara ne akan zato cewa ta hanyar kiyaye masu kishin Musulunci daga tsarin dimokuradiyya kawai zai haifar da ƙiyayya da tashin hankali ga Yammacin duniya. Suna ambaton Turkiyya a matsayin misali mafi dacewa da duniyar Larabawa za ta bi. Babban mai goyon bayan wannan ra'ayi shi ne masanin neoconservative Marc Gerecht, wanda kwanan nan ya bayar da hujja a cikin wata kasida mai taken ‘Devout Democracies’ cewa mulkin kai a duniyar Musulunci zai kasance yana da jigon addini, kuma ya kamata Yammacin duniya kada ta ji tsoron wannan lamari.

The supporters on the other hand advocate a more pragmatic approach. They believe that by co-opting Islamists in the democratic process, the Arab world can be moulded into a region that accepts western values, is substantially less anti-American and willingly accepts American hegemony. Their belief rests on the premise that by keeping Islamists out of the democratic process will only breed resentment and violence against the West. They cite Turkey as the ideal model for the Arab world to follow. A major proponent of this view is the neoconservative Marc Gerecht who recently argued in an article entitled ‘Devout Democracies’ that self rule in the Muslim world will have a religious component and the West should not be afraid of this phenomena.

Duk wanne daga cikin ra'ayoyin biyu ne zai yi nasara wajen jagorantar gwajin dimokuradiyyar Amurka a Gabas ta Tsakiya, tasirinsa wajen dakile yaduwar siyasar Musulunci zai zama kadan kwarai. Wannan saboda mutanen Gabas ta Tsakiya ba za su taba mantawa ko yafe wa Amurka goyon bayanta marar iyaka ga Isra'ila ba, da goyon bayanta mara sassautawa ga mulkin kama-karya na kasashen Larabawa, da cin gajiyar albarkatun kasashensu, da sanya musu hanyoyin warware matsaloli da dabi'un jari-hujja, da kuma kokarinta na yakar mutanen Iraki da sauran Musulmi.

Whichever of the two views succeeds in guiding America’ s democracy experiment in the Middle East, it will have a negligible impact on curbing the rise of political Islam. This is because the people of the Middle East will never forget or forgive America’ s unstinting support for Israel, her unflinching support for the brutal Arab dictatorships, her exploitation of their natural resources, her imposition of capitalist solutions and values, and her determined efforts to wage wars against the people of Iraq and other Muslims.

Waɗannan munanan gaskiyoyi an rubuta su har abada a zukatan Larabawa, kuma suna ci gaba da sanya al'ummar Larabawa neman mafaka a cikin siyasar Musulunci.

These painful realities are permanently etched on the minds of the Arabs and continuously urge the Arab populace to seek solace in political Islam.

Gabas ta Tsakiya ce zuciyar duniyar Musulunci, kuma a yanzu tana cike da siyasar Musulunci wadda babu makawa za ta kai ga sake bayyanar Khalifanci. Inganta dimokuradiyya ko kin aiwatar da ita, maye gurbin nassosin Musulunci da fassarori na boko, ware masu kishin Musulunci da karfafa masu matsakaicin ra'ayi, rushe gwamnatoci da maye gurbinsu da wakilan Amurka masu biyayya, ba zai canza sakamakon ba. Dangantakar Amurka da Larabawa a baya ta riga ta tabbatar da makomarta da Larabawan yau. Lokaci ya yi da masu tsara manufofi a Amurka za su yi tunani game da makomar gaba — wane irin dangantaka Amurka take so da Khalifanci?

The Middle East is the heart of the Islamic world and right now it is pulsating with political Islam that will inevitably lead to the re-emergence of the Caliphate. Promoting democracy or eschewing its implementation, substituting Islamic texts with secular interpretations, isolating Islamists and encouraging moderates, destroying regimes and replacing them with compliant US surrogates is not going to change the outcome. America’ s past relations with the Arabs has sealed her fate with the present Arabs. The time has come for US policy makers to think about the future – what type of relations does the US want with the Caliphate?

Janairu 23, 2006

January 23, 2006