Lokacin da na fara isa ƙasar babbar ƙasar jari-hujja a duniya, na yi mamakin ƙarfin samar da jari-hujja a Amurka. A matsayina na ƙaramin matashi, ba fiye da shekara goma sha shida ba, na ga manyan tarakta da na'urorin girbi suna noma ɗaruruwan kadada, suna samar da ton-ton na masara da waken soya, duk da iyali ɗaya ke sarrafa su. Na ga hannayen wani manomi da ƙasar da yake nomawa ta taurare su, kuma kuɗin da ƙasarsa ke samarwa ya yi musu laushi. A lokacin ban ga hannayen da ba a iya gani na bankunan da ke ba da kuɗin dukan wannan aikin ba. Ba zan iya ganin wata alamar faɗuwa ba a lokacin.

When I arrived for the first time to the land of the largest capitalist nation in the world, I was amazed by the power of capitalist productivity in the United States of America. As a young teenager, less than sixteen years old, I saw huge tractors and combines cultivating hundreds of acres and producing tons of corn and soybean grain, all operated by a single family. I saw the hands of a farmer hardened by the land he cultivated and softened by the money his land generated. I did not see then the invisible hands of the banks financing all that operation. I could not see any signs of failure then.

Shekara guda bayan haka, ƙaddarar karatuna ta kai ni ga wani ɓangaren duniya mai nisa daga na farko. Na isa ƙasar babbar ƙasar gurguzu a duniya, inda na shafe shekaru shida masu zuwa ina karatu, a lokaci guda ina lura da tsarin gurguzu a Tarayyar Jamhuriyoyin Gurguzu na Soviet (USSR). Na tuna yadda sau da yawa nake tsayawa a layi don sayen wani abincin kasuwa, sai dai in koma cikin takaici awa ɗaya bayan haka saboda kayan da nake jira ba su ƙara samuwa ba. Tsarin nan ba zai daɗe ba, abin da zuciyata ta gaya min ke nan. Na tuna cewa dole ne in sayi wata mujallar gurguzu a matsayin sharaɗin sayen littafin lissafi ko kimiyyar kwamfuta. Tsarin nan ba zai daɗe sosai ba, na ji haka.

A year later, my education fate flew me to the other extreme. I arrived at the land of the largest socialist nation in the to spend the next six years studying while observing socialism in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). I recall how often I had to stand in line to buy a grocery product, only to be disappointed an hour later because the item I waited for is no longer available. That system would not last, my instincts told me. I recall having to buy a communist publication as a condition for buying a book of math or computer science. That system would not last for long, I felt it.

Ina tuna da yadda nake takawa ta kan mutanen da suka kwanta a buge a hanyata ta safe zuwa makaranta da kuma a hanyar dawowa. Ina tuna dalibai da yawa da suka kammala karatun likitanci, shari'a da injiniyanci ba tare da sun halarci darussa ba; su masu fafutukar siyasa ne ko daliban kasashen waje masu arziki. Ina tuna mutane da ke yin tiyata kawai don cika shirin kason likitan tiyata a wani asibiti. Ina tuna rediyon sadarwa mai sauki da aka dasa a bango a dakin kwanana, wanda tabbas rediyo ne mai hanyoyi biyu. Duk lokacin da na kashe rediyon, ma'aikatan gyara za su zo dakina su gyara shi; ban taba neman wannan aikin ba. Na san wannan tsarin ba zai dade ba. Tunanin zuciyata, ilhamata, da bincike mai sauki sun tabbata ne kawai bayan shekara goma da kammala karatuna da barin Tarayyar Soviet. Gurguzanci ya rushe, kuma Tarayyar Soviet ta wargaje zuwa 1991.

I recall having to step over people lying drunk in my morning journey to school and on my way back. I recall scores of students graduating from medical, law, and engineering schools without even attending classes; they were political activists or rich foreign students. I recall people having to go through surgery only to fulfill the quota plan for the surgeon at a given hospital. I recall the primitive radio monitor fixed on the wall of my dorm room, which must have been a two-way radio. Every time I disabled the radio, technicians would show up at my room to fix it; I never asked for the service. I knew that system could not last for long. My gut feelings, my instincts, and simple analysis turned out to be true only ten years after I graduated and left the Soviet Union. Socialism collapsed and the Soviet Union was dismantled by 1991.

Shekaru shida da na yi a Tarayyar Soviet sun ba ni wata gogewa ta rayuwa. Da farko dai, ko da ina so, ba zan iya fuskantar rayuwar karkashin gurguzu a yau ba. Mafi muhimmanci kuma, na koyi ka'idojin tattalin arziki, tattalin arzikin siyasa, da tsarin zamantakewar gurguzu da jari-hujja. Koyarwar Karl Marx, Vladimir Lenin da Friedrich Engels na da muhimmanci a cikin manhaja kamar yadda darussan lissafi, kimiyyar lissafi da injiniyanci suke. Ka'idar tarihin kayan abu wadda Marx ya samar, Lenin kuma ya inganta, ta nuna cewa jari-hujja za ta shude, sannan ta haifar da gurguzu. Wannan ra'ayi ya zama baya aiki a zahiri lokacin da gurguzu ta fara rushewa. Ka'idar "darajar karin kima" ta Marx daidai ce kawai ta fuskar cewa karkashin jari-hujja dukiya kan taru a hannun wasu 'yan kalilan. Amma sashen ka'idar da ke cewa talakawan ma'aikata da manoma za su tashi su yi bore saboda hakkokin mallakarsu da aka sace, bai taba faruwa ba.

The six years I spent in the Soviet Union gave me an experience of a lifetime. For one thing, I could not experience the life under socialism today even if I wanted to. Most importantly, I learned the principles of economy, political economy, and social structure of both socialism and capitalism. The teachings of Karl Marx, Vladimir Lenin, and Friedrich Engels were as important part of the curriculum as the subjects of math, physics, and engineering. The theory of historic materialism developed by Marx and later refined by Lenin suggested that capitalism would fade away only to give rise to socialism. That view was dead beaten in real world when socialism fell first. Marx’s theory of the “surplus value” was correct only in the sense that under capitalism the wealth tends to accumulate in the hands of the few. But the other part of the theory that the poorer classes of workers and farmers would revolt for their stolen rights of ownerships never materialized.

Lokacin da na isa ƙasar jari-hujja a karo na biyu, wanda ya fi tsayi, na lura da abubuwan da ba zan iya lura da su ba a tafiyata ta farko, lokacin da nake yaro. Gonar da na zauna a ciki a tafiyata ta farko ba ta ƙara kasancewa iri ɗaya ba. Banki ne ya ƙwace ta, wanda ƴan shekaru baya ya ba da kuɗin noman ta, a madadin basussukan da iyalin masaukin mu suka kasa biya. Manomin mai aiki tuƙuru ya rasa gonarsa da kamfanin iri da yake mallaka tare da ƴan uwansa. Zuciyata ta gaya mini cewa wannan tsarin ba zai dawwama ba.

When I arrived at the land of capitalism for the second but longer period of time, I observed what I could not have observed during my first trip when I was a young boy. The farm I lived in during my first trip was no longer the same. It was confiscated by the bank which, few years earlier had financed its production, in exchange for the debts which my host family failed to pay. The hardworking farmer lost his land and the seed company he co-owned with his brothers. This system would not last, my instincts told me.

Wannan dodon nan, bankin, ya haɗiye masana'antar injina ta abokina ɗaya a birnin Milwaukee da ke jihar Wisconsin. Na tuna yadda abokina ya taɓa tafiya zuwa ƙasata yana ƙoƙarin kafa masana'anta da zai taimaka wajen bunƙasa masana'antu a wata ƙasa mai tasowa. Na tuna yadda mai masana'antar (abokina) yake da himma wajen taimakon mutane su samu aikin yi, yana goyon bayan ilimi, da kuma yadda yake ƙin korar mutane daga aikinsu. Kamar kowace kasuwanci a ƙarƙashin tsarin jari-hujja, shi ma nasa yana ƙarƙashin mallakar banki. Galibi, kasuwanci a ƙasashen jari-hujja suna bin bashin banki ɗaya ko fiye. Har yanzu ina tuna kalaman wani wakilin bankin zuba jari ga mai wata ƙaramar kamfanin fasaha: "Ba za ka iya kasancewa cikin harkar kasuwanci ba tare da kasancewa cikin bashi ba." Abokina mai masana'antar injina ya rasa shagonsa na injina, wanda ke samar da kayayyaki na gaske a nan ƙasar jari-hujja. Yana samar da kayayyaki kuma yana samun riba lokacin da bankin ya ƙwace shi. Har wata ƙila bankunan suna bin inshorar rayuwar abokina a matsayin tabbaci ga dukiyarsu da suke ikirarin ta ɓace! Na sani a lokacin cewa wannan tsarin ba zai ɗore ba.

The same monster, the bank, swallowed the machine factory owned by one of my friends in the city of Milwaukee in Wisconsin. I recall how my friend traveled to my home country in attempt to set up a factory to help industrialize a developing country. I recall how the owner (my friend) was enthusiastic about helping people get jobs, supporting education, and how much he detested laying people off their jobs. Just like every other business under capitalism, his was also owned by the bank. Typically, businesses in capitalist countries are indebted to one or more banks. I still recall the words of an investing bank representative to the owner of a small technology company: “You cannot be in businesses without being in debt.” My machine factory owner friend lost his machine shop, the one that produces real products right here in the land of capitalism. It was making products and generating profit when it was confiscated by the bank. The banks for some time were going after the life insurance policy of my friend as a guarantee for their supposedly lost wealth! I knew then that this system would not last.

A cikin lokacin da nake aiki a ɗaya daga cikin manyan kamfanoni a duniya (wanda ma'aikatansa suka haura dubu ɗari da sittin a lokacin), na ga yadda ƙwararrun injiniyoyi da masu fasaha da yawa aka fitar da su daga ginin a ƙarƙashin uzurin korar ma'aikata. Zagaye na farko na korar ma'aikata, wanda ya kawar da ayyuka sama da dubu hamsin, an yi shi ne a lokacin da kamfanin yake samun riba kuma yana samun kuɗi masu yawa. An yi korar ne don a ɗaga farashin hannun jari na kamfanin, wanda ya tashi sama.

During my tenure at one of the largest corporations in the world (more than 160,000 employees at the time), I witnessed how scores of the best engineers and technicians were escorted out of the building under the auspices of layoff. The first round of layoffs which eliminated more than fifty thousand jobs was done at a time when the company was profitable and making lots of money. The layoffs were necessary to boost the stock prices of the company which have soared over the roof.

Na yarda cewa waɗannan labarai ne kawai, da hasashe da jin ciki. To ina alamun gazawa, idan akwai su? Bayan haka, jari-hujja ya shiga ta zagaye-zagaye na koma-baya, da koma-bayan tattalin arziki, da raguwar kasuwanci, da raguwar yawan aiki, da faɗuwar kamfanoni a baya. Koyaushe yana dawowa da ƙarfi ko ma da ƙarfi fiye da da. To me ya sa wannan karon ya bambanta?

I admit that these are just stories, instincts, and guts feelings. So where are the signs of failure if there are any? After all, capitalism has gone through several rounds of recessions, depressions, downturns, low productivity, and corporate failures in the past. It has always emerged as strong or even stronger. Why is it different this time?

Kamar yadda aka bayyana a baya, lahani ko aibi ba lallai ne ya haifar da kuskure ba. Kuma kuskure ba lallai ne ya kai ga gazawa ba. Aibi yana haifar da kuskure ne kawai idan wasu sharuɗɗa suka faru suka tada wannan aibi. Sai a lokacin ne kuskure zai faru. Kuskure karkacewa ce daga yadda tsarin yake aiki a al'ada. Idan an lura da kuskuren, an gano shi, an keɓe shi, kuma an shawo kansa yadda ya kamata, to za a iya hana gazawa. Kamar yadda yake a duk wani tsarin zahiri, murmurewa daga kuskure ko karkacewa daga yadda tsarin yake aiki a al'ada ba ta faruwa ta atomatik; gano matsalolin daidai, keɓe su daidai, da shawo kansu daidai abu ne mai muhimmanci domin mayar da tsarin yadda yake da kuma hana gazawa.

As explained earlier, faults or defects do not necessarily generate errors. And errors do not necessarily lead to failure. A fault generates an error only when certain conditions occur and trigger that fault. Only then an error occurs. An error is a deviation from the normal behavior of the system. If the error is observed, detected, isolated, and contained properly, then failure could be avoided. Just like in any physical system, the recovery from an error or a deviation from the normal behavior of the system is not automatic; a correct identification and isolation of the problems and a correct containment is absolute necessity to restore the system and to prevent failure.

Babban koma-bayan tattalin arziki na 1929 wata ɓaraka ce ta tafiyar tattalin arziki da kasuwa baki ɗaya. Kasuwar hannun jari ta rushe; mutane da dama sun rasa filayensu, gonakinsu, gidajensu da kamfanoninsu. Ya ɗauki shekaru da dama na sake gina tattalin arziki da wani babban yaƙi (Yaƙin Duniya na Biyu) kafin a shawo kan ɓarnar kasuwa a mayar da tsarin yadda yake aiki yadda ya kamata. Sharuɗɗan da suka haifar da koma-bayan (watau ɓaraka a tafiyar tattalin arziki) suna da alaƙa da darajar hannun jari da aka ƙara wa kumbura, kamar yadda mujallar The Economist ta ruwaito a ranar 2 ga Nuwamba, 1929: “Akwai dalilin fatan cewa rage kumburin darajar hannun jarin Amurka da aka ƙara wa girma zai amfani duniya.”134 An ruwaito cewa farashin kasuwar hada-hadar kuɗi ya ƙaru a lokacin tsakanin 1925 zuwa 1929 da kashi 120%, alhali ci gaban tattalin arziki a wannan lokacin bai wuce kashi 17% ba. Kuma da kasuwar ta rushe, ta rasa sama da kashi 93% na darajarta, wanda ke nufin kasuwar ta koma ga ainihin darajarta ta al'ada wadda a fili ta fi ƙasa sosai da abin da kasuwar hannun jari ta nuna.

The great depression of the 1929 was an erroneous behavior of the economy and the market at large. The stock market collapsed; many people lost their lands, farms, homes, and companies. It took several years of rebuilding the economy and a great war (World War II) to contain the erroneous behavior of the market and to resume a normal functioning of the system. The conditions which led to the depression (i.e., the erroneous behavior of the economy) were related to inflated stock values as reported by the Economist magazine on November 2, 1929: “There is warrant for hoping that the deflation of the exaggerated balloon of American stock values will be for the good of the world”134. It was reported that the prices of financial market increased during the period between 1925 and 1929 by 120%, while economic growth for the same period has not exceeded 17%. And when the market has collapsed, it lost over 93% of its value, which means that the market returned to its real normal value which was obviously much lower than what the stock market had indicated.

Wani kuskuren kasuwa ya sake faruwa a shekarar 1987 lokacin da kasuwa ta sake rushewa. Masana sun lura cewa farashin kasuwannin kuɗi ya yi tashin gwauron zabo idan aka kwatanta da ainihin girman tattalin arziƙi, inda banbancin tsakanin ƙimar da ta kumbura da ta ainihi ya wuce kashi 200%. Ya ɗauki wani yaƙi mai girman gaske don dakile illolin wannan halayyar kuskure. Yaƙin Gulf wanda George Bush, uban, ya jagoranta ya taimaka wajen shawo kan matsalar da mayar da tattalin arziƙi zuwa yanayinsa na al'ada.

Another market error occurred in 1987 when the market collapsed again. Observers noted that the prices of financial market had inflated significantly compared with the real size of the economy, where the difference between the inflated values and the real ones was more than 200%. It took another war of large magnitude to contain the effects of this erroneous behavior. The Gulf War led by George Bush, the father, helped contain the problem and bring the economy back to its normal behavior.

A cikin shekarar 1999, tattalin arziki ya sake samar da wani kuskure a lokacin da aka rushe abin da ake kira "kumfar Intanet", kasuwa kuma ta rasa daruruwan biliyoyin daloli na kama-karya. Tattalin arziki ya fara nutsewa da sauri. An sake yin amfani da hanyar shawo kan lamarin: yaki mai tsawo! Wannan karon yakin bai yi nasara ba wajen shawo kan kuskuren ko kawo karshen rikicin. Akasin haka, yake-yaken da aka kaddamar da sunan yaki da ta'addanci a kan Afganistan da Iraki sun kara ta'azzara rikicin tare da zurfafa matsalolin kudi. Zuwa shekarar 2008, rikicin ya kai wani mataki mai tsanani. An garzaya da wani gagarumin shiga tsakanin gwamnati, wanda ya kai sama da dala tiriliyan 1.5 a Amurka kadai, don taimakon tattalin arzikin da ke rugujewa. Malamai da dama sun yi gaggawar sanar da karshen wani zamani, zamanin jari-hujjar 'yanci.

In 1999, the economy generated another error when the so called “Internet bubble” was deflated and the market lost hundreds of billions of virtual dollars. The economy was heading to a steep dive. The containment procedure was invoked again: a lengthy war! This time the war did not succeed in containing the error or ending the crisis. On the contrary, the wars launched in the name of fighting terrorism against Afghanistan and Iraq fueled up the crisis and deepened the financial problems. By the time the year 2008 arrived, the crisis had reached a serious peak. A massive government intervention with more than $1.5 trillion in the United States alone was rushed to the aid of a failing economy. Scores of scholars rushed to declare an end of an era, the era of liberal capitalism.

Duk da cewa tushen matsalolin rikicin yanzu ba su bambanta sosai da na baya ba, yanayin da suka haifar da rikicin yanzu da muhallin da ya yi aiki a cikinsa, da kuma hanyoyin shawo kansa, sun bambanta sosai. Akwai manyan al'amura guda biyu da suka bayyana a matsayin alamomi masu muhimmanci na rikicin kuɗi na baya-bayan nan, waɗanda ke da ikon rushe tattalin arzikin siyasa na jari-hujja. Na farko shi ne samuwar tattalin arziki na zahiri (virtual) wanda ke tafiya tare da tattalin arziki na gaskiya. Na biyu kuwa shi ne babbar siyan kamfanoni masu zaman kansu daga gwamnati, wato bankuna masu zaman kansu, kamfanonin inshora, masana'antar motoci, harkar gidaje, da sauransu. Za a tattauna waɗannan al'amura guda biyu a cikin ƙananan sassan da ke biye.

Although the root causes of the current crisis are not significantly different from the previous ones, the conditions which led to the current crisis and the environment in which it functioned, as well as the containment procedures, are significantly different. Two major phenomena emerged as prominent signs of the most recent financial crisis, which have the capacity of collapsing the political economy of capitalism. The first is the creation of virtual economy parallel to the real economy. The second one is a massive government buyout of private banks, insurance companies, auto industry, real estate, and more. These two phenomena will be discussed in the next subsections.