Tekun Fasha (Persian Gulf) tare da manyan ajiyar makamashinsa da wurin dabarunsa, da kuma kasancewarsa tushen mai mafi girma a duniya, ya kasance cibiyar rikici tsawon sama da shekaru 100 tsakanin manyan ƙasashe daban-daban, inda mafi ƙarfin iko a yankin shi ne Iran. Saboda haka duk wanda ya samu Iran a gefensa zai mallaki dukkan yankin, domin Iran ita ce mabuɗin yankin.

The Persian Gulf with its immense energy reserves and strategic location as well as being the world’s largest single source of crude oil, has been the centre of conflict for over 100 years by various powers with the most powerful force in the region being Iran. Hence whoever has Iran on their side will have control over the entire region since Iran is the key to the region.

Tun daga lokacin da Amurka ta mamaye Iraki, Iran ta kasance tana fuskantar zazzafar suka daga jami'an Amurka, har ma George W. Bush ya yi mata barazanar yaƙi. Tun daga jawabin Bush na "gatari na mugunta" a jawabinsa na halin ƙasa na 2002, Bush ya ƙi yin hulɗa da Iran. Ana ci gaba da zargin Iran da bai wa 'yan tawaye a Iraki makamai, da goyon bayan Hizbullah, da kuma kera makaman nukiliya. Tura ƙarin jirgin ruwan yaƙi mai ɗauke da jiragen sama zuwa Tekun Fasha duk sun ƙara yawaitar hasashen cewa Amurka na iya kai hari kan Iran. Duk wannan a zahiri yana nuna cewa Amurka da Iran suna adawa da juna gaba ɗaya, suna da muradun da suka bambanta sosai, kuma a sakamakon haka Iran tana wakiltar barazana kai tsaye ga Amurka a yankin, saboda haka dole ne a kwance mata damara, musamman ta makaman nukiliya, a cire mata tufafin Musulunci, a kuma yi mata ambaliyar dimokuradiyya da 'yanci.

Since the invasion of Iraq by the US, Iran has been on the receiving end of a barrage of criticism by US officials and has even been threatened with war by George W. Bush. Since Bush’s axis of evil state of the union speech in 2002, Bush has refused to engage with Iran. Iran is continually accused of arming the insurgency in Iraq, supporting Hizbollah and developing nuclear weapons. The dispatch of an additional aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf all increased speculation that the US may launch an attack against Iran. All of this on the surface indicates that the US and Iran are diametrically opposed to each other, have interests which widely differ and as a result Iran represents a direct threat to the US in the region hence it needs to be disarmed, especially of its nuclear weapons and stripped of its Islamic credentials and showered with democracy and freedom.

Tun bayan abin da ake kira 'Juyin Juya Halin Musulunci' a shekarar 1979, gwamnatoci a jere, tun daga Rafsanjani har zuwa Khatami, sun yi ƙoƙarin kawar da hoton masu tsatsauran ra'ayi ta hanyar gina alaƙa da Turai da Yamma. Wannan ya haifar da haɗin kai tsakanin Amurka da Iran a fannoni daban-daban. A shekarar 1986 aka fallasa Badakalar Iran-Contra, inda gwamnatin Amurka ta sayar wa Iran makamai, abokiyar gaba a lokacin, sannan ta yi amfani da kuɗin da aka samu wajen tallafa wa Contras, wata ƙungiyar 'yan tawaye masu yaƙi da kwaminisanci a Nicaragua. An kai wa Iran makaman roka masu lalata tankunan yaƙi, tare da jigilar makaman kai-hari daga ƙasa zuwa sama, waɗanda jimillarsu ta haura dala biliyan 2, ta hanyar Isra'ila.

Since the so called ‘Islamic Revolution’ in 1979 successive governments from Rafsanjani and Khatami have tried to dispel the image of ultra-conservatives by building links with Europe and the West. This has resulted in the US-Iran cooperation in various areas. In 1986 the Iran-Contra Affair was exposed where the US administration sold arms to Iran, an avowed enemy at the time, and used the proceeds to fund the Contras, an anti-communist guerrilla organisation in Nicaragua. Anti-Tank missiles were provided to Iran along with shipments of surface-to-air missiles totalling more than $2 billion via Israel.

Duk da cewa gwamnatin Bush ta soke su a fili, irin waɗannan masu gyara a gwamnatin Iran suna ci gaba da inganta muradun Amurka a Iran, da kuma a makwabciyarta Afghanistan da Iraki. A Iraki, Tehran na ci gaba da ba shugaban SCIRI, Ayatollah Hakim, da kuma Badr Brigade goyon baya, waɗanda suka zama ginshiƙin shirye-shiryen Amurka a Kudancin Iraki. A Afghanistan kuwa, Iran tana gudanar da manyan shirye-shiryen sake gina ƙasa da horarwa a Kabul, Herat da Kandahar. Zuwa yanzu, Iran ta yi nasarar hana juriyar Pushtun yaduwa zuwa Arewacin Afghanistan. Rahoton Baker-Hamilton ya tabbatar da irin wannan hulɗa: "…ya kamata Amurka ta yi hulɗa kai tsaye da Iran da Syria don ƙoƙarin samun alkawarin su na manufofi masu amfani game da Iraki da sauran al'amuran yankin. Wajen hulɗa da Syria da Iran, Amurka ya kamata ta yi la'akari da ƙarfafawa, da kuma hana, a cikin neman sakamako mai amfani…Hulɗa da Iran tana da matsala, musamman la'akari da yanayin dangantakar Amurka da Iran. Duk da haka, Amurka da Iran sun yi haɗin kai a Afghanistan, kuma ɓangarorin biyu ya kamata su bincika ko za a iya maimaita wannan tsari a batun Iraki." A gefe guda kuma, Amurka ta yi ƙoƙarin gabatar da hujja mai ƙarfi game da barazanar da ƙarfin nukiliyar Iran ke haifarwa, kuma tana ci gaba da matsa lamba a kan takunkumi, saboda burin nukiliyar ƙasar ya saɓa wa ƙa'idodin ƙasa da ƙasa. Isra'ila ita kaɗai ce ƙasar da ke ci gaba da yaɗa ra'ayin cewa bam ɗin nukiliyar Iran yana da nisan watanni. Ministan Harkokin Wajen Isra'ila, Sylvan Shalom, ya faɗa a wani taro na shugabannin Yahudawa a New York: "Bisa ga bayanan jami'an tsaro da leƙen asirin mutanenmu, sun kusa kaiwa ga hakan sosai. Zai iya zama watanni shida kawai kafin su sami cikakken ilimin hakan." A shekarar 2005, a taron Hukumar Makamashin Atom ta Duniya (IAEA) a Vienna, shugaban ƙoli na Iran, Ayatollah Khameni, ya fitar da fatwa wadda ta haramta tara, ƙera, da amfani da makaman nukiliya.

Despite being publicly derided by the Bush administration, such reformists in the Iranian government continue to promote US interests in Iran, and neighbouring Afghanistan and Iraq. In Iraq, Tehran continues to extend support to the leader of SCIRI, Ayatollah Hakim and the Badr Brigade who have become the lynchpin of US plans for Southern Iraq. In Afghanistan, Iran runs extensive reconstruction and training programs in Kabul, Herat and Kandahar. Thus far, Iran has successfully prevented the Pushtun resistance from spreading to Northern Afghanistan. The BakerHamilton report confirmed such engagement: ‘…the United States should engage directly with Iran and Syria in order to try to obtain their commitment to constructive policies toward Iraq and other regional issues. In engaging Syria and Iran, the United States should consider incentives, as well as disincentives; in seeking constructive results…Engaging Iran is problematic, especially given the state of the US-Iranian relationship. Yet the United States and Iran cooperated in Afghanistan, and both sides should explore whether this model can be replicated in the case of Iraq.’ On the other hand the US has attempted to make a compelling case about the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear capability, and continues to push for sanctions as the country’s nuclear aspirations contravene international norms. Israel is the only country that continues to propagate the view that Iran’s nuclear bomb is months away. Sylvan Shalom, Israel’s Foreign Minister told a meeting of Jewish leaders in New York: ‘According to our people, security and intelligence, they are very, very close. It may be only six months before they will have that full knowledge.’ In 2005, at the meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khameni, issued a fatwa, which forbade the stockpiling, production, and use of nuclear weapons.

Shugaban ƙoli ya kuma gabatar da tattaunawar zaman lafiya da Isra'ila a shekarar 2003.

The supreme leader had also offered peace talks with Israel in 2003.

Shekaru sama da hamsin ke nan Amurka tana hulda da Iran ta hanyoyi daban-daban. A yanzu abin da muke gani shi ne alamomi masu cin karo da juna daga Washington, inda ake yin hulda da hadin kai tsakanin kasashen biyu, a daya bangaren kuma ana kushe Iran a fili saboda kasancewarta kasar Musulunci da kuma tsananin neman ta na makaman kare-dangi.

Over a period of over half a century the US has engaged with Iran in different ways. Currently what we are witnessing is a number of mixed signals coming from Washington where engagement and cooperation takes place between the two nations whilst on the other hand Iran is publicly rebuked for being Islamic and aggressive in its pursuance of weapons of mass destruction.

Ga Amurka, juyin juya halin Musulunci da ita ta kirkira ya riga ya wuce amfaninsa. Amurka ta dade tana aiki don ta kawo karshen juyin juya halin a hukumance (kamar yadda take da Jihadi a Pakistan da ta inganta a lokacin mamayar Soviet a Afghanistan), tun da manufofin da aka kirkiro juyin juya halin domin su, sun riga sun cimma nasara.

For the US the Islamic revolution which it engineered has outlived its use. The US for some time has been working to officially end the revolution (similar to the Jihad in Pakistan it promoted during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan) as those objectives for which the revolution was engineered, have been achieved.

Manufofin juyin juya halin sun kasance kifar da Shah wanda a shekarar 1979 ya rabu da tasirin Amurka. Samun wani madadin da mutanen Iran za su amince da shi a matsayin abin dogaro shi ne babban fifikon dabarun Amurka. Ganawar da Ayatollah Khomeini da Amurka suka yi domin shirya wannan "juyin juya halin" an tabbatar da ita daga shugaban Sudan na lokacin, Sadeq Al-Mehdi, wanda ya zama mai shiga tsakani tsakanin Amurka da Khomeini, da kuma tsohon Babban Lauyan Gwamnati, Ramsey Clark, wanda ya yi tattaunawa kai tsaye da Khomeini a 1979. Juyin juya halin ya kai ga "masu ra'ayin mazan jiya" karkashin jagorancin Khomeini suka karbi cikakken iko na sojoji, shari'a, hukumomin leken asiri da tsaro. Duk da zafafan kalaman adawa da Amurka daga Iran, ba ta taba daina samar wa Amurka man fetur ba, kuma ba ta taba kawo karshen yarjejeniyoyin da ke tsakaninsu ba. Tunda masu tsattsauran ra'ayi suna rike da wadannan muhimman mukamai, Amurka ba ta iya kawar da juyin juya halin Musulunci a Iran gaba daya ba. Su ne kuma masu tsattsauran ra'ayin da ke aiki wajen kera makaman nukiliya da sayen manyan makamai domin karfafa matsayinsu, alhali Amurka na kokarin kawo karshen hakan.

The revolution’s objectives were to overthrow the Shah who had by 1979 moved away from US influence. His replacement by a credible alternative in the eyes of the people of Iran was a key US strategic priority. The meetings between Ayatollah Khomeini and the US to organise the ‘revolution,’ have been confirmed by the then Sudanese leader Sadeq Al-Mehdi, who was the mediator between the US and Khomeini, as well as the former Attorney General, Ramsey Clark who held direct talks with Khomeini in 1979. The revolution led to the ‘conservatives’ led by Khomeini taking effective control of the military, judiciary, intelligence and security apparatus. For all the anti-US rhetoric from Iran it never stopped supplying the US with oil and never ended any agreements with them. With the hardliners in such key positions the US has been unable to completely reverse the Islamic revolution in Iran. It is the same hardliners who are working on developing nuclear weapons and purchasing sophisticated weaponry in order to strengthen their position whilst the US is attempting to end this.

Al'ummar Iran a yau fiye da kashi 70 cikin 100 na mutanenta ba su kai shekaru 30 ba; wannan yana nufin yawancin mutanen Iran ba a haife su ba tun lokacin da juyin juya halin Musulunci ya faru. Irin wannan al'umma matashiya tana karkashin jagorancin masu ra'ayin mazan jiya, wadanda suka yi imani da akidun juyin juya halin, alhali jama'a ba su da kusan wani ruwa da irin wadannan akidu. Amurka ta yi hulda kai tsaye da kungiyoyin dalibai da masu kwaskwarima a cikin gwamnati, amma kuma tana bayyana a fili cewa a shirye take ta dauki matakin soja idan muradun Amurka suna cikin hadari.

Iranian society today has over 70% of its population under the age of 30; this means the majority of the people in Iran were not even born when the Islamic revolution took place. Such a young population is ruled by conservatives who believe in the revolution’s ideals, whilst the public have very little with such ideals. The US has directly engaged with student groups and the reformists in government but is also making it clear that it is prepared to act militarily when US interests are at stake.

Babbar matsalar da Amurka ke fuskanta ita ce yadda za ta cimma wannan. Ya kamata a cimma hakan ta hanyar shiga tattaunawa da huldar diflomasiyya, ko kuma ta hanyar karfin soja, domin a sauya halin Tehran? Wannan batu ya dame gwamnatin Bush tun lokacin da George W. Bush ya hau kan mulki, kuma shi ne ke aika sakonni masu rikitarwa.

The biggest problem the US faces is how exactly to achieve this. Should this be through engagement or military force in order to change Tehran’s behaviour? This has actually plagued the Bush administration ever since George W. Bush rose to office and is what sends mixed signals.

A tushen matsalar akwai rikici tsakanin masu kallon duniya ta fuskar gaskiya da zahiri (realists) da kuma masu neoconservative game da hanya mafi kyau ta mu'amala da Iran. Wannan rikici ya shiga dukkan sassan gwamnatin Amurka, ya kuma raba cibiyoyi kamar Ma'aikatar Harkokin Waje, Pentagon da CIA gida biyu. Sabanin da ke tsakaninsu game da Iran ya kai kololuwa a watan Yulin 2004, lokacin da Majalisar Dangantakar Ƙasashen Waje (CFR) ta fitar da rahoton mai taken ‘Iran: Time for a New Approach’, wanda Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Mashawarcin Tsaron Ƙasa na Shugaba Jimmy Carter, ya jagoranta. Rahoton ya bayar da hujjar cewa Iran ba ta kai matakin da za a iya canza gwamnatinta ba kamar yadda masu neoconservative ke bayarwa. Rahoton ya ce: ‘Duk da yawan rikicin siyasa da rashin jin daɗin jama'a, Iran ba ta kusa da wani juyin-juya-hali ba. Ƙungiyoyin da suka himmatu wajen kiyaye tsarin Iran na yanzu suna nan daram a kan mulki.’ Rahoton ya kuma jaddada cewa ‘babbar yarjejeniya’ don warware dukkan rikicin da ke tsakanin Washington da Tehran ba ta da gaskiya, kuma maimakon haka ya kamata tattaunawa ta mayar da hankali wajen samun ‘ci gaba a hankali’ kan batutuwa iri-iri masu muhimmanci, ciki har da zaman lafiyar yankin da burin Iran na nukiliya.

At the heart of the issue was the dispute between the realists and the neoconservatives regarding the best approach towards Iran. The row permeated all sections of the US government and divided institutions like the State Department, the Pentagon and the CIA. The disagreements over Iran came to ahead in July 2004 with the publication of the report entitled ‘Iran: Time for a New Approach’ which was prepared by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) under the direction of Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Adviser. The report argued that Iran was not ripe for regime change as advocated by the neoconservatives. The report stated: ‘Despite considerable political flux and popular dissatisfaction. Iran is not on the verge of another revolution. Those forces that are committed to preserving Iran's current system remain firmly in control.’ The report also stressed, that a ‘grand bargain’ to settle all outstanding conflicts between Washington and Tehran is unrealistic and that talks should focus instead on making ‘incremental progress’ on a variety of key issues, including regional stability and Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Shawarwarin da rahoton ya bayar nan take masu ra'ayin neoconservative waɗanda ke da alaƙa sosai da Mataimakin Shugaban Ƙasa Dick Cheney da sakataren tsaro na lokacin, Donald Rumsfeld, suka yi watsi da su. Fitaccen mai ra'ayin neoconservative, Micheal Ledeen, wanda ke ganin Tehran a matsayin babban birnin duniya na "shugabannin ta'addanci na Islama", ya rubuta a National Review Online cewa shawarwarin CFR "abin kunya ne" kuma sun zama "sasantawa da masu tsattsauran ra'ayi." Sai dai a wa'adi na biyu na Bush, tare da koma-bayan Iraƙi, tasirin masu neoconservative ya ragu sosai. Wasu daga cikin masu neoconservative, irin su Paul Wolfowitz da John Bolton, an cire su daga muƙaman yin manufofin harkokin waje, aka ba su muƙaman aiwatar da manufofi a Bankin Duniya da Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya, yayin da wasu, kamar Douglas Feith, aka tilasta musu barin aikin. Ficewar masu neoconservative ta ba da dama ga hakikanin siyasa da ƙarfin tasiri ba tare da tilastawa ba a gwamnatin Bush. Zuwa babban mataki, an dawo da daidaito tsakanin tasirin Ma'aikatar Harkokin Wajen Amurka da Pentagon a al'amuran manufofin ƙasashen waje. Haɗin gwiwa da wasu ƙasashe don warware rikicin siyasa a Sudan, Lebanon, Koriya ta Arewa, da Iran, yana tuna da tsarin haɗin gwiwar ƙasashe da gwamnatocin Amurka na baya suka yi amfani da shi.

The recommendations of the report were instantly dismissed by the neoconservatives who were closely associated with Vice President Dick Cheney and the then defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Arch neoconservative Micheal Ledeen, who considers Tehran the global capital of Islamist ‘terror masters,’ wrote in National Review Online that the CFR recommendations were ‘humiliating’ and constituted ‘appeasement.’ However, in Bush’s second term of office and with the debacle of Iraq, the Neocons influence declined considerably. Some of the neoconservatives like Paul Wolfowitz and John Bolton were ushered out of foreign policy making roles and given policy implementation roles at the World Bank and the UN, while others like Douglas Feith were forced to leave. The departure of the neoconservatives gave way to realism and soft power in the Bush administration. To a large extent parity was restored between the influence of the US State Department and Pentagon over foreign policy matters. Collaboration with other nations to solve the political crisis in Sudan, Lebanon, North Korean, and Iran is reminiscent of multilateralism employed by previous US administrations.

Nasarar masana'antu ta hakika a gwamnatin Bush bai shiru da ra'ayoyin masu neoconservatism game da Iran gaba ɗaya ba. Dick Cheney, wanda ke da ƙwazo wajen goyon bayan neo-conservatism, ya ɗauki nauyin tabbatar da cewa idan dama ta samu, Amurka za ta kasance cikin shiri don amfani da ƙarfi mai yawa a kan Iran domin mamaye filayen man fetur da iskar gas ɗinta.

The ascendancy of realism in the Bush administration has not completely silenced neoconservative views on Iran. The ever present Dick Cheney an ardent supporter of neo-conservatism has taken it upon himself to ensure that should the opportunity avail itself, America is prepared to use overwhelming force against Iran to occupy its oil and gas fields.

A taƙaice, rikicin da ke tsakanin Amurka da Iran gaskiya ne, amma akwai fannoni da dama inda aka ajiye wannan rikici a gefe kuma ana haɗin kai. 'Yan siyasar hakika (realists) a gwamnatin Bush yanzu suna da rinjaye, kuma hanyar da suka fi so ta magance shirin nukiliyar Iran ita ce ta hanyar haɗin gwiwar ƙasashe da diflomasiyya, ba ta hanyar yin abu shi kaɗai da shiga yaƙi ba.

In summary, the conflict between the US and Iran is real, however there are many areas where this conflict has been put aside and cooperation is taking place. The realists in the Bush administration now have the upper hand and their preferred method of dealing with Iran’s nuclear programme is through multilateralism and diplomacy, as opposed to unilateralism and military intervention.

Amma, gazawar gwamnatin Bush wajen murkushe muryoyin da ke kira ga aikin soji a kan Iran na ci gaba da tayar da hankalin duniya.

However, the failure of the Bush administration to subdue those voices who exhort military action against Iran continues to alarm the world.