Gwagwarmayar neman mulkin duniya tsakanin Jamus da Birtaniya a farkon karni na 20 ta tilasta su neman sauran man fetur da zai iya sarrafa manyan injunan yaƙinsu da ke aiki da kwal.

The struggle for global supremacy between Germany and Britain at the beginning of the 20th century drove them to search for alternative fuels to power their bulky coal based war machines.

Gano man filayen mai a Gabas ta Tsakiya a farkon karni na 20 ya haifar da karni guda na sababbin fasahohi, ya kuma kirkiri sabbin tsare-tsaren al'umma da amfani, ya kuma canza daidaiton karfi a duniya.

The discovery of oil fields in the Middle East in the early 20th century spurred a century of new technologies, created new patterns of society and consumption and changed the global balance of power.

Man-man burbushin halittu ta yanayinsu suna da iyaka kuma a karshe za su ragu. A mafi yawan karni na 20 ba a taba tattaunawa kan wannan ba, domin yawancin man fetur din duniya har yanzu ba a gano shi ba. Tare da fasahohi irin su jirgin yaki, tankunan yaki da motoci, wadanda aka tsara su don amfani da man fetur, idan man fetur na kara karewa, to baya ga tashin farashin mai, irin wadannan fasahohi za su zama marasa amfani.

Fossil fuels by their nature are limited and will eventually diminish. For most of the 20th century this was never a discussion as most of the world’s oil was still undiscovered. With technologies such as the fighter jet, tanks and automobiles all designed to run on oil, if oil is drying up then apart from oil prices exploding, such technologies would also become redundant.

"Peak oil" ya fara bayyana ne a shekarun 1970; ra'ayi ne da ke lissafin lokacin da aka tsotse rabin man fetur ɗin da duniya ta sani.

‘Peak oil’ was first introduced in the 1970’s; it is a theory which calculates the point where half of the worlds known oil reserves have been pumped.

Akwai lambobi uku masu muhimmanci da ake buƙata don hasashen samar da man fetur a nan gaba. Na farko, adadin man da aka hako zuwa yanzu, wanda ake kira jimillar samarwa (cumulative production). Na biyu, kimanin adadin ajiya (reserves); wato yawan man da kamfanoni za su iya fitarwa daga sanannun filaye kafin su yi watsi da su. Na ƙarshe, dole ne a yi ƙiyasi mai hankali game da adadin man fetur na al'ada da har yanzu ba a gano ba, wanda kuma za a iya hakowa. Waɗannan lambobi idan aka haɗa su tare, suna samar da jimillar dawo da mai (ultimate recovery), wato jimillar ganga da za a kwashe lokacin da samarwa za ta tsaya bayan shekaru masu yawa daga yanzu.

There are three vital numbers that are needed to project future oil production. Firstly, the tally of how much oil has been extracted to date, a figure known as the cumulative production. The second is an estimate of reserves; the amount that companies can pump out of known fields before having to abandon them. Finally, one must make an educated guess at the quantity of conventional oil that remains to be discovered and exploited. Together they add up to the ultimate recovery i.e. the total number of barrels that will have been extracted when production ceases many decades from now.

Hanya mafi sauƙi don fahimtar ranar kololuwar mai ita ce duba ko samar da mai ya zarce gano sabbin man fetur. Shaidar da ta fi nuna wannan ita ce gano man fetur ya kai kololuwarsa a shekarun 1960. Babban filin mai na ƙarshe da aka gano shi ne a Mexico a shekarar 1985, yayin da yawancin masu samar da mai a yau suna da tsoffin filaye waɗanda aka gano a shekarun 1950. Duniya yanzu tana cinye man fetur sau huɗu fiye da adadin da ake samu. Kamfanonin mai suna kashe kuɗi masu yawa wajen neman sabbin ma'adanai na mai, amma waɗanda suke samu suna ƙara ƙanƙanta da ƙanƙanta, don haka suna samar da ƙarancin mai. Yayin da gano sabbin man fetur ke raguwa, samar da mai na yanzu yana ƙare ragowar ajiyar "bakin zinare" na ƙarshe.

The easiest way to comprehend an understanding of peaking dates is to see if production of oil has outstripped oil discoveries. The most damning evidence for this is that oil discoveries actually peaked in the 1960’s. The most recent large oil field was discovered in Mexico in 1985, while the majority of today’s producers have mature fields that were discovered in the 1950’s. The world now consumes four times the quantity of oil as is found. The oil companies are spending a fortune on trying to find new oil reserves, but the ones that they find are getting smaller and smaller, and therefore produce less oil. With diminishing discoveries the current production of oil is depleting the last reserves of the black gold.

Wasu hasashe masu kyakkyawan fata fiye da kima suna ba da ranakun kololuwa har zuwa shekarar 2060, amma mafi amintattun kiyasi na lokacin da samar da man fetur a duniya zai kai kololuwa sun bambanta tsakanin yanzu zuwa shekarar 2012. Idan samar da man fetur a duniya zai fara raguwa nan ba da jimawa ba, to ya kamata mu riga mu ga ƙasashen da suka riga suka kai kololuwarsu ko kuma suna kusa da kaiwa kololuwarsu. Daga cikin manyan masu samar da man fetur guda bakwai, shida suna raguwa ko kuma suna kusa da kololuwar samarwa. Amurka ta kai kololuwarta a shekarar 1971, Norway ta kai kololuwarta a shekarar 2001, sannan Birtaniya ta kai kololuwarta a shekarar 1998. Ana hasashen cewa Rasha, Mexico da China za su kai kololuwarsu a shekarar 2008. Haka kuma yana yiwuwa Saudi Arabia ta kai kololuwarta a shekarar 2005. Mai ƙarfin ƙara samarwa a sarari daga cikin manyan masu samarwa bakwai shi ne Iran kawai.

Some overly optimistic predictions give peaking dates up to the year 2060, but the most reliable estimates for when global oil production will peak vary from between now and 2012. If production is meant to start diminishing worldwide very soon, then we should already see countries that have reached their peaks or are just about to reach their peak. Of the top seven oil producers, six are in decline or near peak production. USA peaked 1971, Norway peaked 2001, and the UK peaked in 1998. Russia, Mexico and China are forecast to peak in 2008. It is also possible that Saudi Arabia peaked in 2005. The only one of the top seven producers that has clear capability to increase production is Iran.

Akwai wasu abubuwa da dama da ke goyon bayan hujjar kololuwar farko. Manyan kamfanonin mai (misali Shell) suna fuskantar wahala wajen maye gurbin ajiyar mai da kuma cike gibin kimar ajiyar da aka yi a baya.

There are a number of other factors that support the early peak argument. Major oil companies (e.g. Shell) are finding it difficult to replace reserves and to backfill previous reserve over-estimates.

Haɗewar kamfanonin man fetur tana ɓoye ƙarancin ajiyar man ta hanyar haɗa ajiyar da ake da su. Kamfanoni kamar BP sun koma yin maye gurbin ajiyar man ta hanyar yarjejeniyoyin samarwa a tsofaffin filaye (misali Rasha), maimakon binciken sabon man fetur kawai. Zuba jari a binciken man fetur yana raguwa. Bayanan fasaha daga manyan filayen man fetur na Saudi Arabiya sun nuna cewa man ya ragu sosai. Manufofin harkokin wajen Amurka game da Gabas ta Tsakiya, Afghanistan, CIS, Indiya, China da ƙasashen Asiya suna nuna neman man fetur da iskar gas cikin gaggawa.

Oil industry consolidation hides reserve shortages by combining existing reserves. Oil companies such as BP have resorted to replacing reserves through production agreements on old fields (e.g. Russia) rather than pure exploration. Investment in exploration is falling. Technical feedback from the state of major Saudi Arabian oil fields indicates a high level of depletion. US foreign policy visà-vis the Middle East, Afghanistan, CIS, India, China and Asian states indicates frantic scouring for oil and gas.

Waɗannan dalilai ne suka ba da damar ra'ayin ƙarancin man fetur (peak oil) ya shiga cikin ra'ayin jama'a, kuma ra'ayin cewa duniya tana kusa da ƙarewar mai ana ɗaukarsa a matsayin matsala ta siyasa ga manyan ƙasashen duniya. Sai dai a zahiri, wannan muhawara tana ɓoye wasu zurfafan matsalolin siyasa.

It is these reasons that have allowed peak oil to enter the mainstream and the view that the world is running out of oil is considered a geopolitical headache for the world’s powers. However in reality this argument masks a number of deeper political issues.

Duniya tana kusa da ƙarewar man fetur ba gaskiya ba ne sai uzuri mai sauƙi ga yawan amfani da Yamma ke yi, tun da rage amfani ana ɗaukarsa a matsayin haramun mafi girma. Yayin da ƙasashe da dama ke ta fafatawa don neman ƙarancin man fetur da ke ƙara raguwa, wannan ya fallasa Yamma. Duniyar Yamma tana cinye kashi 50% na mafi muhimmancin albarkatu na ƙarni na 21, amma ta samar da ƙasa da kashi ɗaya bisa huɗu nasa. Yawan amfani ne, ba kuma gaskiyar cewa man fetur yana ƙarewa ba, shi ne ke haddasa matsalar makamashi.

The world is running out of oil is a convenient excuse for the West’s over consumption, since to reduce consumption is considered the ultimate taboo. As more and more nations scramble for the ever dwindling supply of oil, this has exposed the West. The Western world consumes 50% of the 21st century’s most important resource but produced less then a quarter of it. It is over consumption rather than the fact that oil is depleting that is causing the energy crisis.

Amurka ta samar da kashi 8% kawai na man fetur na duniya, amma tana cinye kashi 25% na shi. Irin wannan yawan amfani da Yammacin duniya ke yi ba zai dore ba har abada; wannan saboda Yammacin duniya ta dogara ne kacokan kan ƙananan adadin manyan filayen mai don mafi yawan abin da take amfani da shi a kullum. Duk da cewa duniya tana da dubban filayen mai masu aiki, guda 116 ne kawai ke samar da fiye da ganga 100,000 a kowace rana, kuma suna lissafin kashi 50% na yawan man da ake samarwa a duniya. Daga cikin waɗannan, duk sai wasu kaɗan an gano su fiye da shekaru ashirin da biyar da suka wuce, kuma yawancinsu suna nuna alamun raguwar ƙarfin samarwa. Haƙiƙa, wasu daga cikin manyan filayen duniya – ciki har da Ghawar a Saudiyya, Burgan a Kuwait, Cantarell a Mexico, da Samotlor a Rasha – suna nuna alamun raguwa ko kuma suna gab da yin hakan. Raguwar waɗannan manyan filaye tana da muhimmanci ƙwarai. Domin rama asarar man da suke samarwa zai bukaci ƙara yawan samarwa a dubban ƙananan filaye, kuma babu wata hujja da ke nuna cewa hakan yana yiwuwa ko kaɗan.

The US specifically produced only 8% of the world’s oil but consumes 25% of it. Such huge consumption by the West is never sustainable; this is because the West essentially has relied on a relatively small number of mammoth fields for the lion’s share of their daily intake. Though the world possesses tens of thousands of operating fields, only 116 of them produce more than 100,000 barrels per day and they account for 50% of global output. Of these, all but a handful were discovered more than a quarter of a century ago, and most are showing signs of diminished capacity. Indeed, some of the world’s largest fields – including Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, Burgan in Kuwait, Cantarell in Mexico, and Samotlor in Russia – appear to be now in decline or about to become so. The decline of these giant fields matters greatly. Compensating for their lost output will take increased yield at thousands of smaller fields, and there is no evidence that this is even remotely possible.

Yayin da amfani da makamashi a Amurka ke ci gaba da karuwa, gasa a kan hanyoyin makamashi da ke ta raguwa za ta kara tsanani.

As US consumption continues to rise, the competition for dwindling energy sources will intensify.

Wannan zai sa ƙasashen Musulmi su ƙara zama masu muhimmanci, kuma kamar yadda aka yi a Iraƙi, mamaye su na iya zama abin da ake ganin yana da hujja saboda tabbatar da samun man fetur mai ɗorewa. Ko da yake man fetur yana ƙarewa, hakan saboda yadda Yammacin duniya ke amfani da shi ne, ba kawai saboda ba a samun man isasshe ba.

This will make the Muslim lands even more important and as with Iraq, occupation may well be justified for stable supplies of the black gold. Although oil is running out, it is due to Western consumption patterns rather then there merely being too little oil.