2.3 Kesan Domino
2.3 The Domino Effect
Sementara nilai aset bank sedang merosot, kedudukan pinjaman perlu dibayar balik kerana pinjaman jangka pendek semakin kering. Secara efektif, bank-bank sedang terperangkap dalam pusaran menurun penyahleveragan, di mana kedudukan pinjaman besar yang terkumpul sejak beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini terpaksa dileraikan. Walaupun bank-bank Eropah yang lebih konservatif turut menghadapi masalah yang sama, kerana mereka bergantung banyak pada pembiayaan pinjaman tiga bulan untuk mengekalkan kedudukan mereka berbanding pelaburan jangka panjang. Tambahan pula, dana lindung nilai, dana pelaburan dan kumpulan berkaitan sedang menghadapi panggilan margin yang berat terhadap kedudukan berleveraj mereka apabila pasaran jatuh secara mendadak, ditambah pula dengan tahap pengeluaran pelanggan yang tinggi daripada dana mereka, kerana semua pihak berebut untuk keluar daripada kapal pelaburan yang sedang karam.
While Bank asset values are evaporating, loan positions are having to be repaid as short term lending dries up. Effectively the banks are being caught in a downward spiral of deleveraging in which the massive loan positions built up in recent years have to be unwound. Even the more conservative European banks are facing the same problems as they rely heavily on three month loan financing to maintain their positions vis a vis their long term investments. Additionally the Hedge funds, investment funds and associated groups are facing heavy margin calls against their leveraged positions as the markets dramatically drop, added to high levels of customer withdrawals from their funds, as everyone clambers to get off the sinking investment ship.
Berbeza dengan barisan panjang di hadapan pejabat bank di jalan-jalan utama UK dan jalan-jalan utama AS, era internet telah menyelamatkan bank-bank daripada kehinaan tersebut. Namun begitu, pemegang deposit menyuarakan pendirian mereka melalui "klik" dengan memindahkan wang secara beramai-ramai dari akaun bank ke mana-mana dan kepada sesiapa sahaja yang dilihat sebagai pelabuhan selamat dalam ribut. Ia adalah larian ke atas bank yang kurang kelihatan, ya, tetapi tidak kurang memusnahkan. Gabungan sempurna antara jatuhnya asas deposit, pengecutan kredit, kerugian besar berasaskan derivatif, dan kehilangan keyakinan sepenuhnya terhadap siapa yang akan runtuh seterusnya, menyebabkan ramai bank berada di ambang keruntuhan secara efektif; malah, ramai daripadanya bankrap dari segi teknikal. Tidak menghairankan bahawa Ketua Eksekutif mereka bergegas ke pintu kerajaan masing-masing untuk meminta bantuan.
Rather than queues around the corner from bank offices in the high streets of the UK and main streets of the US, the internet age has spared the banks from that indignity. Nevertheless deposit holders voted with their “clicks” moving money out of bank accounts on mass to wherever and whoever was seen as a safe port in the storm. A less visible run on the banks, yes, but no less devastating. A perfect storm of dropping deposit base, credit contraction, heavy derivative based losses and complete lack of confidence in who next might collapse meant that many banks were effectively on the brink of collapse, indeed many were technically bankrupt. It was no surprise that their Chief Executives beat a track to the door of their governments for help.