“Ular [Eronliklar] Barqaror Erkinlik operatsiyasiga ham katta yordam berishdi. Tehron Amerika transport samolyotlariga Afg'onistonning g'arbiy qismidagi operatsiyalarni qo'llab-quvvatlash uchun Sharqiy Eron aerodromlaridan foydalanishga ruxsat berishni taklif qildi. U quruqlikka tushib qolgan Amerika uchuvchilarini qutqarish va qidiruv missiyalarini bajarishga rozi bo'ldi... Eronliklar Shimoliy Ittifoq bilan muzokara olib bordilar va uni Vashingtonning jiddiy niyatda ekaniga ishontirishga yordam berdilar, shuning uchun Shimoliy Ittifoq Amerikaning urush harakatlarida to'liq ishtirok etishi kerak edi.” — Kenneth Pollack 2008-yil 15-sentabrda Xalqaro atom energiyasi agentligi Eronning yadro qurolini yaratishga uringanlikda ayblanayotgan holatlarni tekshirish uchun BMT tergovini muntazam ravishda to'sib qo'yganini xabar qildi. Hisobotning xulosalari yana bir bor G'arb davlatlari tomonidan Eronni xalqaro miqyosda chetlatilgan davlat va qo'shnilari uchun xavf sifatida ko'rsatish uchun ishlatildi. Amerika, Fransiya, Buyuk Britaniya va Isroil ularning fikricha, Eronning tinch yadro dasturi borasidagi qat'iyatsizligini jazolash uchun yangi sanksiyalar to'plami haqida ogohlantirishmoqda.

“They [Iranians] also provided considerable assistance to Operation Enduring Freedom. Tehran offered to allow American transport aircraft to stage from airfields in eastern Iran to assist operations in western Afghanistan. It agreed to perform searchand- rescue missions for downed American airmen who bailed over Iran...The Iranians weighed in with the Northern Alliance and helped convince it that Washington was deadly serious and that therefore the Northern Alliance should participate fully in the American war effort.” -- Kenneth Pollack n 15 September 2008 the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran had repeatedly blocked a UN investigation to probe allegations that it had tried to make nuclear weapons. The findings of the report were once again seized upon by Western powers to portray Iran as a pariah state and a menace to its neighbours. America, France, Britain and Israel have raised the spectre of a new set of sanctions to punish in their view Iran’ s intransigence over its peaceful nuclear programme.

Oq uy spikeri Gordon Jondro aytdi: "Biz Eronni uran boyitish va qayta ishlash faoliyatini to'xtatishga chaqiramiz, aks holda mavjud Birlashgan Millatlar Xavfsizlik Kengashi sanksiyalarini yanada joriy etish va yangi sanksiyalar kiritish ehtimoli bilan yuzma-yuz bo'ladi."xii Frantsiya Tashqi ishlar vazirligi spikeri Eric Shevalye dedi: "Yaqin kunlar va haftalarda BMT Xavfsizlik Kengashining yangi sanksiyalar to'g'risidagi rezolyutsiyasi ustida ishlashdan boshqa imkonimiz yo'q"xiii. Isroil Bosh vazirining devonxonasi spikeri Mark Regev dedi: "Bu Eron rejimi xalqaro hamjamiyat bilan aldov siyosati orqali o'yin o'ynayotganining yana bir aniq belgisidir. … Endi xalqaro hamjamiyat Tehronga bosimni kuchaytirishi kerak."xiv Eron esa o'z pozitsiyasini himoya qildi va Amerikaning uning tinch yadro dasturi haqidagi da'volarini rad etdi.

White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said, "We urge Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities or face further implementation of the existing United Nations Security Council sanctions and the possibility of new sanctions."xii French Foreign Ministry spokesman Eric Chevallier said, ”We have no other choice than to work in the days and weeks to come toward a new (UN) Security Council sanctions resolution”xiii. Israel’ s Prime Minister's Office spokesman Mark Regev said, “This is another clear signal that the Iranian regime is playing games with the international community with a policy of deception. … It is now incumbent upon the international community to ratchet up the pressure on Teheran."xiv Iran on the other hand defended its stance and rebuffed American claims about its peaceful nuclear programme.

"Biz Amerika har kuni yangi da'vo ko'tarib, uni agentlikka yuborishi va Eronning har qanday da'voga javob berishini kutishi uchun ochiq majlis bo'lishi kerak deb hisoblamaymiz", — dedi Alouddin Borujerdiy, parlamentning milliy xavfsizlik va tashqi ishlar qo'mitasi raisi.

"We do not think there should be an open forum so America can bring up a new claim every day and pass it on to the agency, expecting Iran to address any claim," said Alaeddin Borujerdi, head of parliament's national security and foreign affairs commission.

Eron g'azablanishga to'liq haqqi bor. Eronda yadro qurollari dasturi mavjudligiga oid aniq dalil yo'q. Bir qator obro'li g'arbiy tahlil markazlari va razvedka agentliklari o'tmishda Eron yadro bombasigacha hali ko'p yillar borligini qat'iy ta'kidlagan.

Iran has every right to be angry. There is no tangible evidence that Iran has a nuclear weapons programme. A number of prestigious western think tanks and intelligence agencies in the past have unequivocally stated that Iranian nuclear bomb is many years away.

Shuningdek, yaqinda chop etilgan XAGA (Xalqaro atom energiyasi agentligi) hisobotida ta'kidlanishicha, Eron kamida 2 yil uzoqlikda bo'lib, bomba yasash uchun yetarli darajada uran ishlab chiqarish imkoniyatiga ega bo'ladi, hatto shundan keyin ham bu jarayonni o'zlashtirish murakkab bo'lib, ko'plab kuzatuvchilar buning yillar davom etishini taxmin qilmoqda.

Furthermore, the recent IAEA report stresses that at the very least Iran is 2 years away before it will possess enough uranium to make a bomb—even then the process is tedious to master and many observers predict it will take years.

So'nggi 5 yil ichida AQSh va Eron o'rtasidagi munosabatlarning urushqoq xarakteri yaxshi o'rganilgan yo'ldan bordi va Eronning yadro dasturi atrofidagi janjal hamda Ahmadinejodning kuchayishi muhim rol o'ynadi.

Over the past 5 years, the bellicose nature of U.S.-Iran relations have followed a well trodden trajectory, and the tiff over Iran’ s nuclear programme and the ascendency of Ahmadinejad has played a pivotal role.

Shunday qilib, Vashington va Tehron tomonidan olib borilayotgan alanga sochuvchi notiqlik, ularning yashirin hamkorligi bilan uyg'unlashib, Amerikaning mintaqadagi mavqeini mustahkamlashiga olib keldi. Iroq va G'arbiy Afg'oniston xotirjamlashtirilishi, Fors ko'rfazi davlatlari bilan yangi xavfsizlik kelishuvlari, Yevropada AQSh raketaga qarshi qalqon dasturini joylashtirishga turtki bo'lgan omillar — bularning barchasi AQSh siyosatchilari qo'lga kiritgan foydalardan bir qismidir. Hatto hozir ham Eron harbiy-havo kuchlarining mashg'ulotlari, Inqilobiy gvardiyaning Fors ko'rfazini himoya qilish bo'yicha yangi vazifasi hamda AQSh dengiz floti manyovrlari shu kontekstda ko'rib chiqilishi lozim.

That is to say fiery rhetoric employed by Washington and Tehran interwoven with covert collaboration between the two, has resulted in America consolidating its presence in the region. The pacifying of Iraq and Western Afghanistan, new security arrangements with the Gulf countries, impetus behind the deployment of U.S. missile shield programme in Europe are some of the benefits accrued by U.S. policy makers. Even now, Iranian air force exercises, the Revolutionary Guards new responsibility to defend the Persian Gulf and U.S. navy manoeuvres should be viewed within this context.

Tobora AQSH va Eron o'rtasidagi munosabatlar normallashuv sari borayotganiga oid belgilar kulisda tobora ko'proq ko'rinmoqda.

Increasingly, behind the scenes there are growing signs that U.S.-Iranian relations are heading towards normalization.

William Burnsning iyul oyidagi Jenevadagi muzokaralardagi ishtiroki, Tehronda AQSh diplomatik vakolatxonasini tashkil etish istiqbollari hamda Obamaning Eron bilan muloqot haqidagi takroriy shiori munosabatlarning iliqlashayotganidan dalolat beradi.

The presence of William Burns in the Geneva talks in July, the prospects of the establishment of a U.S. diplomatic mission in Tehran and Obama’ s repeated mantra of engagement with Iran signal a warming of relations.

Dushanba kuni beshta sobiq AQSh Tashqi ishlar vaziri, jumladan Madlen Olbrayt, Kolin Pauell, Uorren Kristofer, Genri A. Kissincher va Jeyms A. Beyker III Eron bilan kengroq aloqalar o‘rnatishga chaqirdi. Amerika siyosatchilari uchun yagona to‘siq Isroilning Eronning xayoliy yadro tahdidini zararsizlantirish talabidir.

On Monday, five former U.S. Secretaries of State among them Madeleine Albright, Colin Powell, Warren Christopher, Henry A. Kissinger and James A. Baker III called for greater engagement with Iran. The only sticking point for American policy makers is Israel’ s insistence on neutralizing Iran’ s imagined nuclear threat.

Shu paytgacha Amerika Eronga hujum qilish borasidagi Isroilning takliflarini rad etib kelmoqda. Amerika bir necha oy oldin Isroilning O‘rta yer dengizi ustidagi havo kuchi namoyishini kamsitdi va kuchli GBU-29 yer ostidagi bunkerlarni buzuvchi bombalarni sotishdan bosh tortdi.

Hitherto, America has snubbed Israeli advances to attack Iran. America played down Israel’ s show of air power over the Mediterranean a few months ago, and has refused to sell the powerful GBU-29 bunker-busters bombs.

Shunga qaramay, GBU-39 kichik bombasini sotish qarori Amerikaning Isroil xavotirlarini yengillashtirish yo‘li hisoblanadi.

Nonetheless, the decision to sell GBU-39 bomb a smaller version is America’ s way of assuaging Israel’ s concerns.

Bush ma'muriyati saylov isitmasiga botgan ekan, AQShning Eron bilan urush qilishi ehtimoldan yiroq. Aksincha, AQSh va Eron o'rtasidagi munosabatlarning yaxshilanishi ehtimoli kuchliroq.

With the Bush administration embroiled in election fever, it is unlikely that the U.S. will be at war with Iran. In fact the opposite is likely to happen—warming of ties between the U.S. and Iran is on the cards.

2008-yil 21-sentabr

September 21, 2008