“Xuddi Birinchi jahon urushi arafasidagidek, koalitsiyalar va mintaqaviy bloklar Amerika gegemonligiga qarshi chiqishi mumkin. Agar bu birlashmalardan biri o‘z kuchini tez mustahkamlay olsa, yangi ikki qutbli dunyo paydo bo‘lishi mumkin. Ehtimol, Xitoy, panarab koalitsiyasi yoki birlashgan Yevropa Ittifoqi (YI) bu yangi super kuch bo‘lishi mumkin.” — Robert DeYeso Prezident Bush lavozimga kirganiga hali olti yil ham to‘lmagan, va ko‘p orzu qilingan XXI asr Amerikaga tegishli ekani tugash arafasida turibdi. Amerikaning dunyoning to‘rt burchagidagi ustunligiga do‘stlari ham, dushmanlari ham qarshi chiqmoqda.

“Much like the time leading up to World War I, coalitions and regional blocs could form to contest American supremacy. If one of these entities could consolidate its power quickly enough, a new bipolar world could emerge. Potentially, China, a pan-Arab coalition, or a unified European Union (EU) could become this new superpower.” -- Robert DeYeso Barely six years have elapsed since President Bush took office and the much coveted 21st century belongs to America is about to come to an abrupt end. America’ s pre-eminence in four corners of the world is being challenged by friends and foes alike.

Amerikaning o‘z hovlisida — Lotin Amerikasida — Venesuela prezidenti Ugo Chavес mintaqa bo‘ylab AQSh manfaatlariga zarar yetkazish uchun salib yurishiga rahbarlik qilmoqda. U Kuba, Boliviya va Ekvador rahbarlarining qo‘llab-quvvatlashiga muvaffaqiyatli erishdi va o‘z maqsadini targ‘ib qilmoqda. Ular birgalikda G‘arb kompaniyalaridan neft va gaz konlarini qaytarib olish hamda ularni to‘g‘ridan-to‘g‘ri davlat nazoratiga o‘tkazish kampaniyasini boshlab, Amerikaning ustunligiga qarshi chiqmoqda.

In America’ s own backyard— Latin America— Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is spearheading a crusade to undermine US interests across the region. He has successfully garnered the support of the leaders of Cuba, Bolivia and Ecuador to propagate his cause. Together they have challenged American supremacy by embarking on a campaign to reclaim oil and gas fields from western companies and put them directly under state control.

Atlantika okeanining narigi tomonida, Iroq urushidan larzaga tushgan va Bush ma'muriyatining yakkaxon harakat qilish dasturiga chuqur dushmanlik bilan qarayotgan Yevropa esa eng yaxshi holda nomigagina yordam taklif qildi.

Across the Atlantic, Europe smitten by the Iraq war and deeply hostile to the unilateralist agenda of the Bush administration has at best offered nominal assistance.

Aksincha, imkoniyat berilganda Yevropaliklar — xususan fransuzlar, nemislar va inglizlar — Amerikaning ittifoqchilaridan ko'ra ko'proq dushmanlarga o'xshab harakat qilishgan. Livandagi fransuzcha qat'iyatsizlik, Yevropaning Iroq va Afg'onistonga sezilarli darajada qo'shin yuborishdan bosh tortishi, Britaniyaning Falastindagi aralashuvi hamda fransuz va britaniyaliklarning Darfur masalasidagi kelishuvga qarshi munosabati Amerikaning dunyodagi mavqeini zaiflashtirib, uning qonuniyligini yo'qqa chiqardi.

Rather, given the opportunity the Europeans—notably the French, the Germans and the British have behaved more as foes than American allies. French intransigence in Lebanon, Europe’ s refusal to commit significant troops to Iraq and Afghanistan, Britain’ s interference in Palestine, and French and British hostility towards a Darfur settlement have damaged America’ s standing in the world and eroded her legitimacy.

Rossiya va Xitoy, Amerika kuchi ostida yigirma yildan ortiq bo‘ysundirilgandan so‘ng, Markaziy Osiyoda Amerika ilhomlantirgan inqiloblarga qarshi turish uchun qayta uyg‘ondi. O‘zbekiston yana Moskvaning ta’sir doirasiga qaytdi, Qirg‘iziston va Belarus AQSh tomonidan qo‘llab-quvvatlangan qo‘zg‘olonlarning oldini muvaffaqiyatli oldi; Amerika Ukrainada erishilgan siyosiy yutuqlarni mustahkamlay olmadi, Gruziya esa uning Vashington bilan aloqalari tufayli Rossiyadan keskin qarshi zarba ko‘rdi.

Russia and China subdued by twenty or so years of American power have reawakened to counter American inspired revolutions sweeping Central Asia. Uzbekistan returned to Moscow’ s sphere of influence, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus successfully thwarted US backed uprisings; America failed to press home the political gains made in Ukraine, and Georgia witnessed a severe backlash from Russia over its ties with Washington.

Bundan tashqari, Shanghay Hamkorlik Tashkilotining (SHT) kichik a'zolari bo'lgan Qirg'iziston va Tojikiston shunchalik jasoratli bo'lib qoldiki, Amerika bazalarini chiqarib yuborishni talab qilmoqda. Amerikaning bu mintaqadagi yutuqlari deyarli hech narsaga arzimaydigan bo'lib qolmoqda.

Furthermore, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the minnow states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have become emboldened enough to demand withdrawal of American bases. America’ s gains in this region almost stand to naught.

Yanada yomoni shuki, "terrorga qarshi urush" beixtiyor Xitoy bilan Rossiya o‘rtasidagi munosabatlarni mustahkamladi — shu tariqa Amerikaning ikki sobiq dushmanni bir-biridan uzoq tutishga qaratilgan yillik strategik rejalarini bekor qildi. Iqtisodiy o‘sish va ikki qutbli dunyoni istashdagi umumiy intilish bilan jonlangan Xitoy-Rossiya ittifoqi o‘z ta’sirini butun dunyoga yoydi va Amerikaning manfaatlariga zarar yetkazmoqda.

Worse still is that the war on terror has inadvertently solidified China’ s relationship with Russia—undoing years of American strategic planning to keep the two erstwhile enemies apart. The China-Russian alliance reinvigorated with economic growth and a common desire to see a bipolar world has spread its tentacles across the globe harming US interests.

Amerika tahdidlaridan cho'chimagan Rossiya Venesuela va Eronni zamonaviy qurollar bilan ta'minlamoqda.xxv Xitoy energetika kompaniyalari an'anaviy ravishda Amerikaning yirik neft kompaniyalari hududi bo'lib kelgan joylarda neft bitimlarini imzolamoqda.xxvi Yaqin Sharqda Rossiya ham, Xitoy ham Eron masalasida Amerikaning pozitsiyasiga qat'iy e'tiroz bildirdi. Koreya yarim orolida Pekinning Pxenyan'ga cheklovsiz yordami Vashingtonning Shimoliy Koreyaning yadroviy quroldor bo'lishiga to'sqinlik qila olmasligini fosh etdi.

Russia unfazed by American threats is equipping Venezuela and Iran with modern weaponryxxv. Chinese energy companies are signing oil deals in places that have traditionally been the preserve of American oil giantsxxvi. In the Middle East, both Russian and China have taken strong objection to America’ s position over Iran. On the Korean peninsula, Beijing’ s unfettered support for Pyongyang has exposed Washington’ s inability to prevent North Korea from becoming nuclear.

Butun musulmon dunyosida Amerikaning obro'-e'tibori tarixdagi eng past darajaga tushib ketdi. Iroq va Afg'onistondagi kuchli qarshilik AQSh armiyasining belini sindirdi va prezident Bushni demokratiyani targ'ib qilish rejalaridan voz kechishga majbur qildi. Iroq va Afg'onistondan Amerikani chiqarib ololmagan Bush "Truman doktrinasi"ga qaytishga va Suriya, Eron hamda Pokiston kabi dunyoviy avtokratik davlatlardan yordam so'rashga majbur bo'ldi. Musulmon dunyosini Amerika qiyofasida qayta shakllantirish o'rniga, Bush ma'muriyatining nopok siyosati mintaqani islomlashtirdi, musulmon ommasini ma'naviy uyqusidan uyg'onishga siyosiy jihatdan yo'naltirdi va musulmon ziyolilarini siyosiy Islom deb ataladigan kuchli kuchga aylantirdi. Xulosa qilib aytganda, so'nggi olti yil davomida Amerika Xalifalikning tug'ilishiga zamin tayyorlayotgan, deyish kifoya.

Throughout the Muslim world America’ s credibility has plummeted to an all-time low. The ferocity of the resistance in Iraq and Afghanistan has broken the back of the US army and forced President Bush to abandon his plans to advance democracy. Bush unable to extricate America from Iraq and Afghanistan has had to revert to the ‘Truman Doctrine’ and seek the help of secular autocracies like Syria, Iran and Pakistan. Instead of reshaping the Muslim world in America’ s image, the nefarious policies of the Bush administration has Islamised the region, politicized the Muslim masses to awaken from their spiritual slumber and galvanized the Muslim intelligentsia into a powerful force or political Islam— to sum up the last six years— it is suffice to say that America is precipitating the birth of the Caliphate.

Yigirma yil davomida jahon ishlarida hukmronlik qilganidan so'ng, Amerika o'zining do'stlari va dushmanlari rahmi-shafqatiga muhtoj bo'lib qoldi. "National Interest" jurnalining so'nggi sonida yozgan Graham Fuller, Milliy razvedka kengashining sobiq vitse-raisi, Amerikaning ahvolini to'g'ri ta'riflagan: "turli mamlakatlar Bush dasturini zaiflashtirish, chalg'itish, o'zgartirish, murakkablashtirish, cheklash, kechiktirish yoki to'xtatish maqsadida ko'plab strategiya va taktikalarni qo'llaydilar, bu esa ming kesish orqali o'lim kabi ta'sir qiladi." Xo'sh, Amerika dunyoning yagona super davlati o'rnidan tushganidan keyin nima bo'ladi? Yevropa yetakchi davlat mavqeini egallash uchun juda bo'lingan. Rossiya o'zining iqtisodiy kuchini siyosiy kapitalga aylantirib, o'zini eng ustun kuch sifatida joylashtira olmagan. Xitoy ham, Hindiston ham dunyo siyosatiga ta'sir o'tkazish uchun siyosiy irodaga va tajribaga ega emas. Yaqin kelajakda ikkala mamlakat ham o'zlarining ta'sir doiralari bilan chegaralanib qoladi.

After two decades of dominating world affairs, America finds itself at the mercy of her friends and enemies. Graham Fuller, former vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council, described America’ s predicament correctly when he wrote in the latest issue of the National Interest, “diverse countries have deployed a multiplicity of strategies and tactics designed to weaken, divert, alter, complicate, limit, delay or block the Bush agenda through death by a thousand cuts.” So what happens after America has fallen from its perch as the world’ s sole super power? Europe is too divided to take up the mantle of the leading state. Russia has yet to translate her economic strength into political capital to position herself as the pre-eminent power. Both China and India lack the political will and the experience to affect world politics. For the foreseeable future, both countries will be confined to their respective spheres of influence.

Amerikani almashtirmoqchi bo‘lgan davlat katta aholiga, mo‘l resurslarga, umumiy mafkuraga va muvaffaqiyatga erishish uchun siyosiy irodaga ega bo‘lishi kerak. Eng ravshan nomzod Xalifalik ostidagi musulmon dunyosidir, buni Bush ko‘p marta gapirgan.

The country that wishes to supplant America must possess a huge population, abundant resources, a universal ideology and the political will to succeed. The most obvious candidate is the Muslim world under the Caliphate, which Bush has often spoken about.

2006-yil 4-dekabr

December 4, 2006